Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year.
Justin Huggler, The Telegraph: “[The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)] party is currently in joint first place in opinion polls in the former east German state, and is projected to win as many as 30 seats in the regional parliament. But the AfD won’t be able to claim that many seats, after a the party messed up the nominations for its candidates.”
DW: “Germany: Conflict in AfD pulling party to the right. In at least three German states, extremist elements of the far-right Alternative for Germany are threatening to take over the party. The nationalist wing led by Björn Höcke is becoming increasingly powerful.”
The Economist: “German soul-searching after the murder of a champion of refugees”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Sofia Globe: “At a national meeting of his centre-right GERB party on July 7, leader and Prime Minister Boiko Borissov sought to position his party for Bulgaria’s October-November municipal and mayoral elections, effecting changes in the leadership structure.”
Euractiv: “Bulgaria’s parliament removed all limits for individual and corporate donations for political parties Thursday (4 July), a move which many fear could worsen the country’s already endemic corruption.”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Total Croatia News: “The leader of the START party and former chair of the parliamentary Conflict of Interest Commission, Dalija Orešković, announced on Sunday she would run for president, saying that the institutions that should be combating corruption either have been sunk or are facing euthanasia.”
Hungary Local – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “The opposition Socialist, Párbeszéd, DK, Jobbik, LMP and Momentum parties have agreed to field joint candidates in all 23 districts of Budapest for the upcoming municipal elections, Gergely Karácsony, Budapest mayor candidate of the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance, told a press conference on Friday.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Andrew Wrobel, Emerging Europe: “The Polish celebrities eyeing seats in parliament”
Aleks Szczerbiak, LSE’S EUROPP blog: “Can Poland’s opposition win this year’s election?”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
AFP: “Romania will hold presidential elections in November, the prime minister announced Tuesday, with the ruling Social Democrats still reeling from poor EU election results and its leader being jailed for corruption. Centre-right incumbent Klaus Iohannis, a vocal government critic, will run for re-election in the November 10 polls.”
Andrew MacDowall, World Politics Review: “Romania’s Most Powerful Politician Is in Jail, but Its Corruption Fight Isn’t Over”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
AFP: “The Czech Republic’s minority government risked collapse Thursday as a junior partner threatened to quit, ramping up the pressure on billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who recently faced mass protests demanding he step down over alleged graft.”
Siegfried Mortkowitz, Politico: “Czech and Slovak protesters shake up political landscape. 30 years after the Velvet Revolution, protesters are facing off against deeply entrenched political interests.”
Robert Tait, The Guardian: “Zdeněk Hřib: the Czech mayor who defied China. By refusing to expel a Taiwanese diplomat, the Prague mayor has joined the ranks of local politicians confronting contentious national policies”
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories are holding a leadership election. The winner will become Prime Minister. The initial field of 10 candidates has been whittled down to four after several rounds of voting by Conservative MPs. Tomorrow, MPs will hold more rounds of votes, eliminating the lowest scorer, until two remain. The 160,000 Conservative Party members will then vote in the final round to choose the winner. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, is the front-runner, and faces a challenge from Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Dov Zakheim, The Hill: “The ambassador’s cables and the Tory election”
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
DW: “Greek conservatives score ‘clear victory’ in snap election”
AFP: “Greece election: new Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sworn in, vows end to ‘painful’ era. The election on Sunday was the first since Greece emerged from three international bailouts”
Euractiv: “Greek voters kick neo-Nazis out of parliament”
Demetris Nellas, AP: “Greece’s far-right Golden Dawn party said Monday it is planning to challenge a general election result that saw it fail to get enough for support to be represented in Parliament, a big reversal for a party that had risen to third place at the height of the country’s financial crisis earlier this decade.”
Hurriyet Daily News: “Turkey ‘hopes’ for a new era with Greece under new Mitsotakis government”
Nick Miller, Sydney Morning Herald: “Greek election signals the beginning of the end of populism”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Tsarizm: “President Ilir Meta considers the June 30 local elections ‘socialist polls’ and ‘a shame for the country,’ implying that he doesn’t recognize them. At a press conference today, the President proposed a new solution for resolving the current political and constitutional crisis: local elections, general elections, as well as presidential elections on the same date, October 13. President Meta had earlier already moved the local elections to that same date.”
Llazar Semini, AP: “The Albanian parliament voted Monday to set up a special commission to investigate and possibly oust President Ilir Meta for his unsuccessful attempt to cancel the municipal elections. Socialist lawmakers said they think Meta’s effort was unconstitutional.”
Exit: “Several mayors from municipalities currently held by the opposition have announced that they do not recognize the outcome of the June 30 elections and will not vacate their offices in August for the incoming mayors of [Edi Rama’s ruling Socialist Party] PS.”
Agata Palickova, Euractiv: “The recent local elections in Albania have further undermined the chances that the country will advance on its road towards EU membership.”
European Parliament – May 23-26, 2019
The European elections, in which 214 million voted (the second-largest democratic exercise in the world, after the Indian elections, according to The Economist), produced a fragmented European Parliament. Out of 751 seats, the two traditional big mainstream parties have the most seats. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) has 182 and the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has 151. These parties have at times formed a “grand coalition,” but because they do not have enough combined seats to form a majority, they need other parties to join the coalition, which has led to a series of protracted negotiations over who would get the top jobs. For the 2014 elections, the parties all agreed to the Spitzenkandidat (leading candidate) process, in which a Spitzenkandidat from the party with the most seats would become the European Commission president. However, objections to the process led to the nomination of German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen for European Commission president. Now, she must secure the votes in Parliament to confirm her nomination, which is proving difficult because many MEPs oppose the way that she was nominated. Parliament is scheduled to vote on the nomination on July 16.
DW: “Germany’s von der Leyen begins EU charm offensive. The German defense minister was grilled by Green, Socialist, and free-market liberals as she faces an uphill battle to secure the European Commission presidency. Many are unhappy with the process of her nomination.”
Politico: “Who killed the Spitzenkandidat? No shortage of suspects in drama over how EU should be governed.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Susana Urra, El País: “In Spain, political gridlock increases likelihood of fresh elections – again. Politicians are describing the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust”
Omar G. Encarnación, World Politics Review: “Franco’s Exhumation and the Unsettled Legacy of Spain’s Democratic Transition”
Bosnia General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Mersiha Gadzo and Harun Karcic, Al-Jazeera: “Bosnia as the new ‘battleground’ between NATO and Russia. Russia has been undermining Bosnia’s stability to keep the country out of NATO, analysts say. Nine months after its general elections, Bosnia has still not formed a government – mainly due to disagreement in the tripartite presidency over NATO membership.”
Europe This Week – July 10, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: July 18, 2019 by 21votes
July 10, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year.
Justin Huggler, The Telegraph: “[The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)] party is currently in joint first place in opinion polls in the former east German state, and is projected to win as many as 30 seats in the regional parliament. But the AfD won’t be able to claim that many seats, after a the party messed up the nominations for its candidates.”
DW: “Germany: Conflict in AfD pulling party to the right. In at least three German states, extremist elements of the far-right Alternative for Germany are threatening to take over the party. The nationalist wing led by Björn Höcke is becoming increasingly powerful.”
The Economist: “German soul-searching after the murder of a champion of refugees”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Sofia Globe: “At a national meeting of his centre-right GERB party on July 7, leader and Prime Minister Boiko Borissov sought to position his party for Bulgaria’s October-November municipal and mayoral elections, effecting changes in the leadership structure.”
Euractiv: “Bulgaria’s parliament removed all limits for individual and corporate donations for political parties Thursday (4 July), a move which many fear could worsen the country’s already endemic corruption.”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Total Croatia News: “The leader of the START party and former chair of the parliamentary Conflict of Interest Commission, Dalija Orešković, announced on Sunday she would run for president, saying that the institutions that should be combating corruption either have been sunk or are facing euthanasia.”
Hungary Local – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “The opposition Socialist, Párbeszéd, DK, Jobbik, LMP and Momentum parties have agreed to field joint candidates in all 23 districts of Budapest for the upcoming municipal elections, Gergely Karácsony, Budapest mayor candidate of the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance, told a press conference on Friday.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Andrew Wrobel, Emerging Europe: “The Polish celebrities eyeing seats in parliament”
Romania Presidential - November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
AFP: “Romania will hold presidential elections in November, the prime minister announced Tuesday, with the ruling Social Democrats still reeling from poor EU election results and its leader being jailed for corruption. Centre-right incumbent Klaus Iohannis, a vocal government critic, will run for re-election in the November 10 polls.”
Andrew MacDowall, World Politics Review: “Romania’s Most Powerful Politician Is in Jail, but Its Corruption Fight Isn’t Over”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
AFP: “The Czech Republic’s minority government risked collapse Thursday as a junior partner threatened to quit, ramping up the pressure on billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who recently faced mass protests demanding he step down over alleged graft.”
Siegfried Mortkowitz, Politico: “Czech and Slovak protesters shake up political landscape. 30 years after the Velvet Revolution, protesters are facing off against deeply entrenched political interests.”
Robert Tait, The Guardian: “Zdeněk Hřib: the Czech mayor who defied China. By refusing to expel a Taiwanese diplomat, the Prague mayor has joined the ranks of local politicians confronting contentious national policies”
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories are holding a leadership election. The winner will become Prime Minister. The initial field of 10 candidates has been whittled down to four after several rounds of voting by Conservative MPs. Tomorrow, MPs will hold more rounds of votes, eliminating the lowest scorer, until two remain. The 160,000 Conservative Party members will then vote in the final round to choose the winner. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, is the front-runner, and faces a challenge from Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Dov Zakheim, The Hill: “The ambassador’s cables and the Tory election”
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
DW: “Greek conservatives score ‘clear victory’ in snap election”
AFP: “Greece election: new Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sworn in, vows end to ‘painful’ era. The election on Sunday was the first since Greece emerged from three international bailouts”
Euractiv: “Greek voters kick neo-Nazis out of parliament”
Demetris Nellas, AP: “Greece’s far-right Golden Dawn party said Monday it is planning to challenge a general election result that saw it fail to get enough for support to be represented in Parliament, a big reversal for a party that had risen to third place at the height of the country’s financial crisis earlier this decade.”
Hurriyet Daily News: “Turkey ‘hopes’ for a new era with Greece under new Mitsotakis government”
Nick Miller, Sydney Morning Herald: “Greek election signals the beginning of the end of populism”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Tsarizm: “President Ilir Meta considers the June 30 local elections ‘socialist polls’ and ‘a shame for the country,’ implying that he doesn’t recognize them. At a press conference today, the President proposed a new solution for resolving the current political and constitutional crisis: local elections, general elections, as well as presidential elections on the same date, October 13. President Meta had earlier already moved the local elections to that same date.”
Llazar Semini, AP: “The Albanian parliament voted Monday to set up a special commission to investigate and possibly oust President Ilir Meta for his unsuccessful attempt to cancel the municipal elections. Socialist lawmakers said they think Meta’s effort was unconstitutional.”
Exit: “Several mayors from municipalities currently held by the opposition have announced that they do not recognize the outcome of the June 30 elections and will not vacate their offices in August for the incoming mayors of [Edi Rama’s ruling Socialist Party] PS.”
Agata Palickova, Euractiv: “The recent local elections in Albania have further undermined the chances that the country will advance on its road towards EU membership.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Susana Urra, El País: “In Spain, political gridlock increases likelihood of fresh elections – again. Politicians are describing the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust”
Omar G. Encarnación, World Politics Review: “Franco’s Exhumation and the Unsettled Legacy of Spain’s Democratic Transition”
Bosnia General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Mersiha Gadzo and Harun Karcic, Al-Jazeera: “Bosnia as the new ‘battleground’ between NATO and Russia. Russia has been undermining Bosnia’s stability to keep the country out of NATO, analysts say. Nine months after its general elections, Bosnia has still not formed a government – mainly due to disagreement in the tripartite presidency over NATO membership.”
European Parliament - May 23-26, 2019
The European elections, in which 214 million voted (the second-largest democratic exercise in the world, after the Indian elections, according to The Economist), produced a fragmented European Parliament. Out of 751 seats, the two traditional big mainstream parties have the most seats. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) has 182 and the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has 151. These parties have at times formed a “grand coalition,” but because they do not have enough combined seats to form a majority, they need other parties to join the coalition, which has led to a series of protracted negotiations over who would get the top jobs. For the 2014 elections, the parties all agreed to the Spitzenkandidat (leading candidate) process, in which a Spitzenkandidat from the party with the most seats would become the European Commission president. However, objections to the process led to the nomination of German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen for European Commission president. Now, she must secure the votes in Parliament to confirm her nomination, which is proving difficult because many MEPs oppose the way that she was nominated. Parliament is scheduled to vote on the nomination on July 16.
DW: “Germany’s von der Leyen begins EU charm offensive. The German defense minister was grilled by Green, Socialist, and free-market liberals as she faces an uphill battle to secure the European Commission presidency. Many are unhappy with the process of her nomination.”
Politico: “Who killed the Spitzenkandidat? No shortage of suspects in drama over how EU should be governed.”
Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year.
Justin Huggler, The Telegraph: “[The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)] party is currently in joint first place in opinion polls in the former east German state, and is projected to win as many as 30 seats in the regional parliament. But the AfD won’t be able to claim that many seats, after a the party messed up the nominations for its candidates.”
DW: “Germany: Conflict in AfD pulling party to the right. In at least three German states, extremist elements of the far-right Alternative for Germany are threatening to take over the party. The nationalist wing led by Björn Höcke is becoming increasingly powerful.”
The Economist: “German soul-searching after the murder of a champion of refugees”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Socialists. The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politicscharacterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
Sofia Globe: “At a national meeting of his centre-right GERB party on July 7, leader and Prime Minister Boiko Borissov sought to position his party for Bulgaria’s October-November municipal and mayoral elections, effecting changes in the leadership structure.”
Euractiv: “Bulgaria’s parliament removed all limits for individual and corporate donations for political parties Thursday (4 July), a move which many fear could worsen the country’s already endemic corruption.”
Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is expected to run for a second term, but has not announced her candidacy yet. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.
Total Croatia News: “The leader of the START party and former chair of the parliamentary Conflict of Interest Commission, Dalija Orešković, announced on Sunday she would run for president, saying that the institutions that should be combating corruption either have been sunk or are facing euthanasia.”
Hungary Local – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “The opposition Socialist, Párbeszéd, DK, Jobbik, LMP and Momentum parties have agreed to field joint candidates in all 23 districts of Budapest for the upcoming municipal elections, Gergely Karácsony, Budapest mayor candidate of the Socialist-Párbeszéd alliance, told a press conference on Friday.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Andrew Wrobel, Emerging Europe: “The Polish celebrities eyeing seats in parliament”
Aleks Szczerbiak, LSE’S EUROPP blog: “Can Poland’s opposition win this year’s election?”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
AFP: “Romania will hold presidential elections in November, the prime minister announced Tuesday, with the ruling Social Democrats still reeling from poor EU election results and its leader being jailed for corruption. Centre-right incumbent Klaus Iohannis, a vocal government critic, will run for re-election in the November 10 polls.”
Andrew MacDowall, World Politics Review: “Romania’s Most Powerful Politician Is in Jail, but Its Corruption Fight Isn’t Over”
Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
AFP: “The Czech Republic’s minority government risked collapse Thursday as a junior partner threatened to quit, ramping up the pressure on billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babis, who recently faced mass protests demanding he step down over alleged graft.”
Siegfried Mortkowitz, Politico: “Czech and Slovak protesters shake up political landscape. 30 years after the Velvet Revolution, protesters are facing off against deeply entrenched political interests.”
Robert Tait, The Guardian: “Zdeněk Hřib: the Czech mayor who defied China. By refusing to expel a Taiwanese diplomat, the Prague mayor has joined the ranks of local politicians confronting contentious national policies”
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories are holding a leadership election. The winner will become Prime Minister. The initial field of 10 candidates has been whittled down to four after several rounds of voting by Conservative MPs. Tomorrow, MPs will hold more rounds of votes, eliminating the lowest scorer, until two remain. The 160,000 Conservative Party members will then vote in the final round to choose the winner. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, is the front-runner, and faces a challenge from Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt.
Dov Zakheim, The Hill: “The ambassador’s cables and the Tory election”
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
DW: “Greek conservatives score ‘clear victory’ in snap election”
AFP: “Greece election: new Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis sworn in, vows end to ‘painful’ era. The election on Sunday was the first since Greece emerged from three international bailouts”
Euractiv: “Greek voters kick neo-Nazis out of parliament”
Demetris Nellas, AP: “Greece’s far-right Golden Dawn party said Monday it is planning to challenge a general election result that saw it fail to get enough for support to be represented in Parliament, a big reversal for a party that had risen to third place at the height of the country’s financial crisis earlier this decade.”
Hurriyet Daily News: “Turkey ‘hopes’ for a new era with Greece under new Mitsotakis government”
Nick Miller, Sydney Morning Herald: “Greek election signals the beginning of the end of populism”
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.
Tsarizm: “President Ilir Meta considers the June 30 local elections ‘socialist polls’ and ‘a shame for the country,’ implying that he doesn’t recognize them. At a press conference today, the President proposed a new solution for resolving the current political and constitutional crisis: local elections, general elections, as well as presidential elections on the same date, October 13. President Meta had earlier already moved the local elections to that same date.”
Llazar Semini, AP: “The Albanian parliament voted Monday to set up a special commission to investigate and possibly oust President Ilir Meta for his unsuccessful attempt to cancel the municipal elections. Socialist lawmakers said they think Meta’s effort was unconstitutional.”
Exit: “Several mayors from municipalities currently held by the opposition have announced that they do not recognize the outcome of the June 30 elections and will not vacate their offices in August for the incoming mayors of [Edi Rama’s ruling Socialist Party] PS.”
Agata Palickova, Euractiv: “The recent local elections in Albania have further undermined the chances that the country will advance on its road towards EU membership.”
European Parliament – May 23-26, 2019
The European elections, in which 214 million voted (the second-largest democratic exercise in the world, after the Indian elections, according to The Economist), produced a fragmented European Parliament. Out of 751 seats, the two traditional big mainstream parties have the most seats. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP) has 182 and the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) has 151. These parties have at times formed a “grand coalition,” but because they do not have enough combined seats to form a majority, they need other parties to join the coalition, which has led to a series of protracted negotiations over who would get the top jobs. For the 2014 elections, the parties all agreed to the Spitzenkandidat (leading candidate) process, in which a Spitzenkandidat from the party with the most seats would become the European Commission president. However, objections to the process led to the nomination of German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen for European Commission president. Now, she must secure the votes in Parliament to confirm her nomination, which is proving difficult because many MEPs oppose the way that she was nominated. Parliament is scheduled to vote on the nomination on July 16.
DW: “Germany’s von der Leyen begins EU charm offensive. The German defense minister was grilled by Green, Socialist, and free-market liberals as she faces an uphill battle to secure the European Commission presidency. Many are unhappy with the process of her nomination.”
Politico: “Who killed the Spitzenkandidat? No shortage of suspects in drama over how EU should be governed.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Susana Urra, El País: “In Spain, political gridlock increases likelihood of fresh elections – again. Politicians are describing the current atmosphere as devoid of loyalty, sincerity or trust”
Omar G. Encarnación, World Politics Review: “Franco’s Exhumation and the Unsettled Legacy of Spain’s Democratic Transition”
Bosnia General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Mersiha Gadzo and Harun Karcic, Al-Jazeera: “Bosnia as the new ‘battleground’ between NATO and Russia. Russia has been undermining Bosnia’s stability to keep the country out of NATO, analysts say. Nine months after its general elections, Bosnia has still not formed a government – mainly due to disagreement in the tripartite presidency over NATO membership.”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Greece snap parliamentary (July 7); Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Hungary local (October); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Poland parliamentary (November); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)
German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen has been nominated as the first female president of the European Commission, but first, she must be confirmed by MEPs. Photo credit: Flickr/Arno Mikkor (EU2017EE)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Spain, United Kingdom