Upcoming Elections
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Philipp Jenne and Geir Moulson, Washington Post: “Kurz favored to return as chancellor in Austria election: Austrians vote Sunday in an election meant to restore political normality after a scandal that brought down ex-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s coalition government with the far-right Freedom Party in May.”
AFP: “Austrian elections: Will climate crisis help Greens reverse shock losses?”
Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.
Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.
Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.
Reuters: “A majority of Germans in the former communist East feel like second-class citizens almost three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall even though they are catching up economically with western regions, a government report showed on Wednesday.”
Julian Göpffarth, Foreign Policy: “Germany’s New Ultranationalist Intelligentsia: The far-right is associated with the disaffected masses—but has a growing intellectual class…. Almost 30 years later, the heritage of 1989 is central to the AfD’s East German election campaign, in which the party calls for a “Wende 2.0”—a new revolution implying a continuity between the German Democratic Republic’s totalitarian regime and contemporary Germany.”
Guy Chazan, Financial Times: “Merkel’s political twilight sees Germany’s influence wane: As the chancellor’s final term ticks away, her ability to set the political agenda is diminishing fast.”
Euractiv: “German Greens shut the door to conservatives as climate row escalates”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
European Western Balkans: “EU calls for peace and transparency in Kosovo as election campaign officially starts”
Jeta Xharra, Balkan Insight: “It’s Time an Election in Kosovo Brought Real Solutions: Problems with neighbours may have triggered this and past elections in Kosovo – but the country urgently needs to focus first on finding practical solutions for its many domestic ills.”
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Paul Ames, Politico: “Campaigning for Portugal’s general election kicked off Monday with Prime Minister António Costa enjoying big poll leads and boosted by a surge in support for his Socialist Party in a key regional election on the island of Madeira. The Socialists (PS) more than tripled their score on the traditionally conservative Atlantic island, denying the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) an absolute majority in the regional parliament for the first time since it was set up in 1976.”
Peter Wise, Financial Times: “Portugal’s prime minister promises voters shelter from economic storm: António Costa catches public mood as he recasts himself from anti-austerity leader to fiscal hawk”
Sergio Goncalves and Andrei Khalip, Reuters: “They want lower taxes on pet food and oppose bull-fights: with these proposals, Portugal’s People-Animals-Nature party could become a kingmaker in a national election next week, its ratings swelled by voters like car factory worker Alexandre Corona.”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Wojciech Moskwa, Bloomberg: “Has Poland’s Government Become a Threat to Business? A financier alleges a nightmarish detention and says politics has subverted the country’s judicial system.”
Reuters: “Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party continues to command the highest support of any political grouping ahead of parliamentary elections in October, according to a poll published on Thursday.”
AP: “Poland’s opposition on Monday called for the dismissal of the nation’s chief auditor following allegations that he let his house to a business which rented rooms by the hour and didn’t issue receipts.”
Lukasz Szulc, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “How LGBT rights became a key battleground in Poland’s election.”
Updated September 27, 2019
Vanessa Gera, AP: “The radical free-market reforms that Leszek Balcerowicz designed for Poland three decades ago put the country on a path toward spectacular economic growth. Now the 72-year-old economist is having to defend that legacy.”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “At stake in next month’s municipal elections is whether Hungary ‘will become a democratic and European country,’ Democratic Coalition MEP Klára Dobrev said in Debrecen, in eastern Hungary, on Monday. ‘A European and democratic country can’t exist without European and democratic local councils,’ Dobrev, who serves as a vice-president of the European Parliament, told a town hall meeting.”
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “A secret recording threatened to throw a wrench into an election campaign in Hungary as the opposition to Prime Minister Viktor Orban appeared to close a gap in polls in the race for mayor of Budapest. Gergely Karacsony, the joint opposition candidate to lead Budapest, is heard on an audio tape appearing to complain about corruption and power struggles within the Socialist Party, one of the groups backing him. The recording was first published on YouTube before being picked up by others including the powerful media outlets loyal to Orban.”
Hungary Today: “With just three weeks till the municipal elections, commentators in the weeklies and the weekend editions of the dailies ponder the chances of the opposition to defeat Fidesz candidates in Budapest and major provincial cities.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Claude Longchamp, SwissInfo: “According to the most recent election barometer by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation, 23% of respondents of the Swiss Abroad community would have voted for the Green Party at the end of August.”
Updated September 28, 2019
DW: “Switzerland: Tens of thousands join climate march ahead of election: Tens of thousands of people have marched in Bern for more climate action, in one of Switzerland’s largest protests in years. Three weeks before an election, a quarter of voters said climate policies are a top issue.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Clive Leviev-Sawyer, Sofia Globe: “Bulgaria’s 2019 local elections: The battle for Sofia has begun”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Updated September 26, 2019
Reuters: “Spain’s second election this year is unlikely to break the stalemate between the main right and left-wing parties, with acting prime minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Party falling even shorter of a full majority than in the first, a poll showed on Thursday.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Anca Alexe, Business Review (Romania): “Sunday marked the deadline when contenders in Romania’s upcoming presidential election each had to submit 200,000 signatures supporting their candidacy to the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC). Ten people have managed to collect the required number of signatures.”
Slovakia Parliamentary – February or March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
Reuters: “The police have wrapped up the main part of their investigation into last year’s murder of a journalist and his fiancée, her family’s lawyer told Reuters on Monday, in a case that continues to shake Slovakia’s political scene ahead of February’s general election.”
Miroslava German Sirotnikova, Balkan Insight: “When Slovaks cast ballots in general elections early next year, no shortage of issues will inform their decisions: corruption, far-right extremism, the state of democracy. And for the first time in a long time: the environment.”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Boris Johnson wants to call a U.K. election. But can he win it? Nothing is simple in British politics at the moment.”
Rob Picheta and Ivaa Kottasová, CNN: “Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is unlawful, Supreme Court rules”
Europe This Week – September 25, 2019
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Last Updated: October 8, 2019 by 21votes
September 25, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.
Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.
Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Slovakia Parliamentary – February or March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Upcoming Elections
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Philipp Jenne and Geir Moulson, Washington Post: “Kurz favored to return as chancellor in Austria election: Austrians vote Sunday in an election meant to restore political normality after a scandal that brought down ex-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s coalition government with the far-right Freedom Party in May.”
AFP: “Austrian elections: Will climate crisis help Greens reverse shock losses?”
Germany Thuringia State Parliament – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Germany – 80.5 million; Thuringia – 2.2 million
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level.
Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia, in polls that are seen as an important test for Angela Merkel’s coalition government. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia. However, AfD did not manage to win either the Saxony or Brandenburg election, although it did make gains and place second in both states. Angela Merkel’s center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) maintained its position as the biggest party in Saxony and the center-left center-left Social Democrats (SPD) held onto first place in Brandenburg.
Thuriginia will be an important contest. The AfD leader there, Björn Höcke, is seen as one of the most extreme figures in the party.
Reuters: “A majority of Germans in the former communist East feel like second-class citizens almost three decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall even though they are catching up economically with western regions, a government report showed on Wednesday.”
Julian Göpffarth, Foreign Policy: “Germany’s New Ultranationalist Intelligentsia: The far-right is associated with the disaffected masses—but has a growing intellectual class…. Almost 30 years later, the heritage of 1989 is central to the AfD’s East German election campaign, in which the party calls for a “Wende 2.0”—a new revolution implying a continuity between the German Democratic Republic’s totalitarian regime and contemporary Germany.”
Guy Chazan, Financial Times: “Merkel’s political twilight sees Germany’s influence wane: As the chancellor’s final term ticks away, her ability to set the political agenda is diminishing fast.”
Euractiv: “German Greens shut the door to conservatives as climate row escalates”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million
Kosovo will hold snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.
Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.
Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.
European Western Balkans: “EU calls for peace and transparency in Kosovo as election campaign officially starts”
Jeta Xharra, Balkan Insight: “It’s Time an Election in Kosovo Brought Real Solutions: Problems with neighbours may have triggered this and past elections in Kosovo – but the country urgently needs to focus first on finding practical solutions for its many domestic ills.”
Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.
Paul Ames, Politico: “Campaigning for Portugal’s general election kicked off Monday with Prime Minister António Costa enjoying big poll leads and boosted by a surge in support for his Socialist Party in a key regional election on the island of Madeira. The Socialists (PS) more than tripled their score on the traditionally conservative Atlantic island, denying the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) an absolute majority in the regional parliament for the first time since it was set up in 1976.”
Peter Wise, Financial Times: “Portugal’s prime minister promises voters shelter from economic storm: António Costa catches public mood as he recasts himself from anti-austerity leader to fiscal hawk”
Sergio Goncalves and Andrei Khalip, Reuters: “They want lower taxes on pet food and oppose bull-fights: with these proposals, Portugal’s People-Animals-Nature party could become a kingmaker in a national election next week, its ratings swelled by voters like car factory worker Alexandre Corona.”
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Wojciech Moskwa, Bloomberg: “Has Poland’s Government Become a Threat to Business? A financier alleges a nightmarish detention and says politics has subverted the country’s judicial system.”
Reuters: “Poland’s ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party continues to command the highest support of any political grouping ahead of parliamentary elections in October, according to a poll published on Thursday.”
AP: “Poland’s opposition on Monday called for the dismissal of the nation’s chief auditor following allegations that he let his house to a business which rented rooms by the hour and didn’t issue receipts.”
Lukasz Szulc, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “How LGBT rights became a key battleground in Poland’s election.”
Updated September 27, 2019
Vanessa Gera, AP: “The radical free-market reforms that Leszek Balcerowicz designed for Poland three decades ago put the country on a path toward spectacular economic growth. Now the 72-year-old economist is having to defend that legacy.”
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Hungary Today: “At stake in next month’s municipal elections is whether Hungary ‘will become a democratic and European country,’ Democratic Coalition MEP Klára Dobrev said in Debrecen, in eastern Hungary, on Monday. ‘A European and democratic country can’t exist without European and democratic local councils,’ Dobrev, who serves as a vice-president of the European Parliament, told a town hall meeting.”
Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “A secret recording threatened to throw a wrench into an election campaign in Hungary as the opposition to Prime Minister Viktor Orban appeared to close a gap in polls in the race for mayor of Budapest. Gergely Karacsony, the joint opposition candidate to lead Budapest, is heard on an audio tape appearing to complain about corruption and power struggles within the Socialist Party, one of the groups backing him. The recording was first published on YouTube before being picked up by others including the powerful media outlets loyal to Orban.”
Hungary Today: “With just three weeks till the municipal elections, commentators in the weeklies and the weekend editions of the dailies ponder the chances of the opposition to defeat Fidesz candidates in Budapest and major provincial cities.”
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million
The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.
Claude Longchamp, SwissInfo: “According to the most recent election barometer by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation, 23% of respondents of the Swiss Abroad community would have voted for the Green Party at the end of August.”
Updated September 28, 2019
DW: “Switzerland: Tens of thousands join climate march ahead of election: Tens of thousands of people have marched in Bern for more climate action, in one of Switzerland’s largest protests in years. Three weeks before an election, a quarter of voters said climate policies are a top issue.”
Bulgaria Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 7.1 million
In the European elections in May, both the governing center-right GERB party and the main opposition Socialist Party ran on a pro-European platform, despite some members of both parties wanting to take a more Eurosceptic tone. As a result, GERB won, followed by the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). The Volya party, which partners with Marine Le Pen in the European Parliament, did not win any seats. However, turnout was very low – 30 percent. Bulgaria is beginning to emerge from a long stretch of chaotic politics characterized by a series of early elections and caretaker governments, but a number of problems remain.
The two biggest parties – GERB and the BSP – are both fielding female candidates for mayor of Sofia, the capital. Incumbent Yordanka Fandakova from GERB is running for another term, and the Socialists have endorsed former ombudsman Maya Manolova, who used to be a former BSP member of parliament.
Clive Leviev-Sawyer, Sofia Globe: “Bulgaria’s 2019 local elections: The battle for Sofia has begun”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million
Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Updated September 26, 2019
Reuters: “Spain’s second election this year is unlikely to break the stalemate between the main right and left-wing parties, with acting prime minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Party falling even shorter of a full majority than in the first, a poll showed on Thursday.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Anca Alexe, Business Review (Romania): “Sunday marked the deadline when contenders in Romania’s upcoming presidential election each had to submit 200,000 signatures supporting their candidacy to the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC). Ten people have managed to collect the required number of signatures.”
Slovakia Parliamentary – February or March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.4 million
Slovakia’s politics could be headed for a change following the murder a year ago of journalist Jan Kuciak, who was investigating the ties between the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD party and organized crime. In June 2019, Zuzana Čaputová, a co-founder of the liberal pro-European Progressive Slovakia (established in 2017 and thus not yet represented in parliament), defeated her populist-backed opponent by a landslide to become Slovakia’s first female president. She ran on a platform of anti-corruption and stemming the rising tide of populism and nationalism. Former president Andrej Kiska in June 2019 launched a new political party to take on the ruling left-wing populist Smer-SD (Direction Social Democracy), which holds 48 seats in parliament and governs in coalition with the right-wing populist Slovak National Party (SNS) and center-right Most–Híd (Bridge). Kiska’s new party is projected to enter parliament.
Reuters: “The police have wrapped up the main part of their investigation into last year’s murder of a journalist and his fiancée, her family’s lawyer told Reuters on Monday, in a case that continues to shake Slovakia’s political scene ahead of February’s general election.”
Miroslava German Sirotnikova, Balkan Insight: “When Slovaks cast ballots in general elections early next year, no shortage of issues will inform their decisions: corruption, far-right extremism, the state of democracy. And for the first time in a long time: the environment.”
United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million
The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.
Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.
Harold Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Boris Johnson wants to call a U.K. election. But can he win it? Nothing is simple in British politics at the moment.”
Rob Picheta and Ivaa Kottasová, CNN: “Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament is unlawful, Supreme Court rules”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Kosovo snap parliamentary (October 6); Poland parliamentary (October 13); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10); Croatia presidential (December); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (due by April – snap possible); Poland presidential (May); Iceland presidential (June); Romania local and possibly snap parliamentary (June)
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Category: This Week Tags: Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Hungary, Kosovo, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Swizerland, United Kingdom