Eurasia This Week – September 26, 2019

September 26, 2019

 

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local - December 22, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.

The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million

On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Upcoming Elections
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Dumitru Minzarari, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “[There] has been a prominent resurgence of Russian activity in Moldova….This is all possible due to an emerging power void in Europe’s East resulting from the United States’ de facto withdrawal from the region and the inability of the European Union to step in.”

Belarus Legislative – November 7 (upper house, indirect) and 17, 2019 (lower house, direct) and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.

Belsat: “During Friday’s [September 20] visit to Karelichy district, president Alyaksandr Lukashenka has urged Belarusians not to ‘rock the country’ in the course of the upcoming parliamentary elections. He expressed hope that the election campaign would be ‘calmly and quiet’, despite of some people’s intention to make a ‘show’ out of it. According to Lukashenka, a ‘noisy’ campaign is not a sign of democracy.”

John Lough, Chatham House: “Moscow Has Limited Options in Belarus: Leaked details of the latest negotiations between Moscow and Minsk on fleshing out their 20-year old Union State project suggest that Russia wants to place Belarus in a closer embrace without incorporating it into the Russian Federation.”

Belsat: “Belarus has no intention to ally with the West against Russia, president Alyaksandr Lukashenka said at Thursday’s [September 26] meeting with Ukrainian journalists in Minsk.”

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.

The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.

Erdoğan Çağatay Zontur, Andalou Agency: “Uzbekistan set for general elections in December: 5 political parties to compete to gain seats in Legislative Assembly of Uzbek parliament.”

Todd Prince, RFE/RL: “Uzbekistan Turns To Foreign Social-Media Stars To Boost Tourism: The influencer event is the latest in a series of unprecedented steps by the country’s government to open itself to the outside world and drive economic growth for its 33 million citizens. Uzbek tourism revenue has the potential to more than double in the next few years, analysts say. Yet the government’s open embrace of foreign bloggers contrasts with its own weak record on social-media freedom at home.”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 4 million

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May.

In June, a series of protests broke out over Russia, which occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s territory. The government’s brutal response could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Todd Prince, RFE/RL: “Former NATO Ambassador Volker Says Georgia Risks Backsliding On Democracy: A former U.S. diplomat says he has never seen Georgia so politically divided and warns that the country could retreat from the democratic progress it has made.”

Olga Oliker and Olesya Vartanyan, World Politics Review (interview): “After a Summer of Protests, Can Georgia’s Government Regain Its Lost Trust?”

Iulian Ernst, BNE Intellinews: “The Georgian public’s perception of the direction their country is taking is at its most negative since 2010, according to a survey commissioned by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) from its local partner Caucasus Resource Research Centers”

Mitchell Orenstein, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “Playing Both Sides: How Oligarchs in Eastern Europe Maintain Power and Control”

Past Elections
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142.1 million

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

In last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

This year, a number of genuine opposition figures sought to run for local office, but authorities blocked their access to the ballot. In response, citizens held a series of protests, resulting in a harsh crackdown. The protests have shown a level of coordination among the opposition not seen since the 1990s. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny encouraged “smart voting” – voting for the candidate most likely to beat United Russia – which resulted in a reduction in the number of seats won by pro-Kremlin candidates, despite major fraud and other irregularities. After the elections, the Kremlin waged a brutal crackdown on the opposition and civil society.

Charlie Bradley, The Express (UK): “Putin censors Russian opposition online following election disaster: Vladimir Putin has passed a new law which will enable the Russian government to censor anti-Kremlin rhetoric online as the President looks to stifle opposition surges following humiliating regional elections.”

Zak Doffman, Forbes: “Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Russian Internet (RuNet) into law to protect the country’s communications infrastructure in case it was disconnected from the world wide web—or so he said. Critics argued it was opening a door to a Chinese-style firewall disconnecting Russia from the outside world.”

Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million

Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.

BNE Intellinews: “Protests in Kazakhstan: New president faces another outbreak of pro-democracy, anti-China rallies”

Laura Mills, Human Rights Watch: “Mass Arrests Cast Doubt on Rights Reform in Kazakhstan: President Should Make Good on Promises to Change Protest Law”

The Economist: “Kazakhstan promises to allow public protests, just not yet: The authorities are squashing demonstrations against China’s domination of the economy.”

Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 3 million

On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.

ArmenPress: “‘We should prove that democratic transformation in Armenia is sustainable’ – Pashinyan’s speech at UN”

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary and local (December 22); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)

 

 

President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, a country sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship.” Lukashenko called on Belarusians to make sure the upcoming elections are “calm and quiet” – translation: vote for his candidates, not the opposition. Photo credit: Flickr/OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (CC BY-SA 2.0)

 

 

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