Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Judith Mischke, Politico: “German court partially overturns restrictions on far-right AfD election list: An electoral committee in Saxony had reduced the party’s candidate list from 61 to 18 earlier this month.”
DW: “The far-right party is polling neck and neck with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) in the eastern state, at around 24% to 26%. The prior restriction on the candidate list could have resulted in the party failing to fill all of its newly won seats in the state assembly. Based on current polls, the party might hope to win in the region of 30 seats in the parliament.”
Patrick Donahue, Bloomberg: “Nazi Salute in Dresden Shows Cracks With Merkel and Germany’s Establishment”
Christiane Hoffmann, Timo Lehmann, Veit Medick and Ralf Neukirch, Spiegel Online: “To Russia With Love: With elections looming in three former East German states this fall, many leading politicians see rapprochement with Russia as a winning campaign strategy. But this perspective puts them in direct confrontation with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government in Berlin.”
Sean Keeley, The American Interest: “Dresden and the Invention of the Future: In the heartland of Saxony, stirrings of culture war and a crack-up in the consensus about the past.”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Reuters: “Austria’s Kurz says open to new government coalition with far right
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Reuters: “Hungary will hold municipal elections on October 13”
AP: “Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party is expected to continue its political dominance, but leading opposition parties planned to unite behind a single candidate in many cities, including the Hungarian capital of Budapest.”
Hungary Today: “The election of national minority self-government representatives will be held on October 13, coinciding with the election of local council representatives and mayors, the National Election Committee (NVB) said on Tuesday.”
Margaret L. Taylor, Brookings Institution: “Orbán passed a new constitution and reshaped Hungary into, as he describes it, an ‘illiberal democracy’….For more than a decade, Putin has done everything in his power to help Orbán succeed and encouraged a process that RT (the Russian state propaganda network), calls ‘the Orbánization of Europe.’”
Tim Gosling, Balkan Insight: “The stories countries tell about themselves are key to national identity — and authoritarian governments in Hungary and Poland have made it their mission to control the plot.”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected Fall 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Blerta Begisholli, Balkan Insight: “Kosovo Parties Agitate for Elections After PM’s Resignation: Kosovo’s governing and opposition parties want new elections after Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned, but President Hashim Thaci has still not made the first move towards setting a date.”
The Economist: “Kosovo’s prime minister faces war-crimes allegations: But do not write off Ramush Haradinaj’s career just yet”
Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight: “Kosovo Government’s Legality Questioned after PM’s Resignation”
Leonat Shehu, VOA: “On Friday [July 26], Philip Kosnett, the U.S. ambassador to Kosovo, tweeted that the United States was ‘watching closely as Kosovo deals, for the first time, with a PM resignation. How it is handled will indicate the strength of Kosovo’s institutions and officials’ willingness to adhere to the Constitution and laws.’”
Portugal Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists remain favorites to win a parliamentary election in October but will fail to grab an absolute majority, according to a new poll.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Hanna Kozlowska, Quartz: “Scores of Poles are revealing they are LGBT on Twitter after violent attacks on a pride parade….The LGBT community has become a punching bag for the ruling conservative Law and Justice party in the run-up to the EU parliamentary elections this spring and national parliamentary elections this fall. The party has equated support for the LGBT community with ‘Western,’ progressive values, which Law and Justice and its supporters eschew.”
Marc Santora and Joanna Berendt, New York Times: “Anti-Gay Brutality in a Polish Town Blamed on Poisonous Propaganda”
Martin Ehl, Transitions Online: “Tension in Polish society is growing between the outlook represented by the ruling conservatives and that represented by the more liberal opposition. That polarization reached its most extreme point with the murder of liberal Gdansk Mayor Pawel Adamowicz in January, during a charity concert.”
Wojciech Moskwa, Bloomberg: “Poland’s parliament is defying a binding court decision, reigniting a debate over the country’s alleged retreat from democratic standards before the fall general elections.”
Ruth Franklin, The New Yorker: “Olga Tokarczuk’s Novels Against Nationalism: In the face of the Polish government’s rightist dogma, the country’s preëminent writer explores its history of ethnic intermingling.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
BNE IntelliNews: “A rift is growing between the two members of Romania’s ruling coalition — the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its junior partner the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) — after both parties picked their own leaders to run in this autumn’s presidential elections.”
Romania Insider: “One day after Romania’s ruling coalition’s senior party, the Social Democrat Party (PSD), nominated prime minister Viorica Dancila to run in the presidential elections, Senate head Calin Popescu Tariceanu, the leader of the junior ruling partner ALDE, declared he felt betrayed and disappointed and decided to enter the presidential campaign himself.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Maja Zivanovic, Balkan Insight: “Serbian Ruling Party and Opposition Meet for First Time….[Belgrade’s Faculty of Political Science dean Dragan] Simic confirmed that the meeting was about the conditions for holding elections, which was one of the main objections opposition put to the ruling Progressives over several months of street protests that are still being held every Saturday in the Serbian capital.”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Serbian opposition leader Dragan Djilas said a review of the country’s electoral rolls by international institutions would not create the conditions for the opposition to take part in elections. He said the opposition could take part in elections only it the clear demands of its expert team were met.”
RFE/RL: “Serbian Protests Continue As Ruling Party Marks Seven Years In Power”
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories held a leadership election. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, won.
Stephen Castle and Steven Erlanger, New York Times: “In Scotland there were boos, in Wales threats of unrest, and on Wednesday, things went little better in Northern Ireland for Britain’s new prime minister, Boris Johnson, as he wound up his tour this week of the nations of the United Kingdom.”
Jonathan Gorvett, Foreign Policy: “Will Brexit Be the End of the United Kingdom?”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
John Follain, Bloomberg: “That Night Matteo Salvini Nearly Forced An Election Over Stuffed Pasta Dinner: Italy’s most powerful political force decided to hold off abandoning the government, for now.”
Giorgio Ghiglione, Foreign Policy: “Can Giorgia Meloni Become Italy’s Marine Le Pen? Italy’s next far-right superstar wants to keep migrants out while welcoming members of the Mussolini family into her party. If Italy holds early elections, she may become a key member of the next government.”
Lillo Montalto Monella, Euronews: “Italian MP under witness protection, Piera Aiello, could lose her seat for using her real name”
Louise Hunt, World Politics Review: “Salvini’s Migrant Crackdown in Italy Is Creating a Crisis, Not Solving One”
Flavia Krause-Jackson, Bloomberg: “Once-a-year elections used to just be a wacky Italian phenomenon. No more. From Brexit-addled Britain to Catalonia-weary Spain, broken electoral systems are emerging as a defining feature in Europe.”
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
New Democracy won a majority, and was able to form a government on its own, without coalition partners.
The Economist: “Greece’s new government promises tax cuts and spending increases. But its official creditors are nervous.”
Susannah Verney, LSE’s EUROPP: “The waking giant goes back to sleep: European integration in the Greek elections: The prospect of Greece leaving the eurozone once dominated the country’s political agenda. Yet as Susannah Verney writes, in the 2019 Greek elections, relations with the EU were simply not an issue.”
The National Herald: “Backing off campaign tough talk that Greece could veto the newly-named North Macedonia’s European Union accession talks, new Prime Minister and New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis said he won’t bar that country but wants still unspecified concessions.”
Dimitar Bechev, Foreign Policy: “Greece Is Getting Good at Geopolitics. How souring ties between Ankara and Washington benefit Athens.”
Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Peter Vanden Houte, ING: “It is now two months since national elections in Belgium and a new federal government is still not in place. Meanwhile, the economy is slowing while the budget is deteriorating.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
AFP: “How can Sanchez avoid fresh elections in Spain? Spain’s caretaker prime minister has vowed not to ‘throw in the towel’ after he lost a post-election vote of confidence in parliament on Thursday but his options to remain in power and avoid fresh elections are limited.”
Editorial Board, Financial Times: “Spain’s political gridlock is stalling further reform. Ciudadanos should rethink its opposition to supporting the Socialist party.”
Carlos E. Cué, El País: “Spain left wondering how a bid to form a government failed so badly Talks between the Socialist Party and leftist Unidas Podemos should not have ended this way. So why did they?”
Sebastiaan Faber and Bécquer Seguín, The Nation: “Will Spain Follow Europe’s Right-Wing Populist Trend? The left’s failure last week to form a coalition reflects deep distrust between the Socialists and their rival, Unidas Podemos—and the right is elated.”
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Viljar Veebel, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “The Rise of Right-Wing Populists in Estonia”
ERR News: “The tactic of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), the party to make the most noise by far recently, has paid off: if the Riigikogu elections were to take place right now, 19.4 percent of voters would vote for the coalition party. This is 2.7 percent more than in June, securing EKRE as the second most popular party in Estonia, writes daily Postimees.”
Europe This Week – July 31, 2019
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Last Updated: August 16, 2019 by 21votes
July 31, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State - October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected Fall 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Portugal Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories held a leadership election. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, won.
Italy General - Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Upcoming Elections
Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year. AfD won the most votes in Brandenburg in the European Parliament elections this year. It beat CDU in Saxony, and came close in Thuringia.
However, AfD did not succeed in winning its first mayoral contest. In a closely-watched mayoral election in Görlitz (nicknamed Görliwood because many films have been shot there), in Saxony, when CDU, the Greens, and SPD teamed up to defeat the AfD candidate in the runoff.
Judith Mischke, Politico: “German court partially overturns restrictions on far-right AfD election list: An electoral committee in Saxony had reduced the party’s candidate list from 61 to 18 earlier this month.”
DW: “The far-right party is polling neck and neck with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) in the eastern state, at around 24% to 26%. The prior restriction on the candidate list could have resulted in the party failing to fill all of its newly won seats in the state assembly. Based on current polls, the party might hope to win in the region of 30 seats in the parliament.”
Patrick Donahue, Bloomberg: “Nazi Salute in Dresden Shows Cracks With Merkel and Germany’s Establishment”
Christiane Hoffmann, Timo Lehmann, Veit Medick and Ralf Neukirch, Spiegel Online: “To Russia With Love: With elections looming in three former East German states this fall, many leading politicians see rapprochement with Russia as a winning campaign strategy. But this perspective puts them in direct confrontation with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government in Berlin.”
Sean Keeley, The American Interest: “Dresden and the Invention of the Future: In the heartland of Saxony, stirrings of culture war and a crack-up in the consensus about the past.”
Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch. New elections will take place in September.
Reuters: “Austria’s Kurz says open to new government coalition with far right
Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.
In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.
Reuters: “Hungary will hold municipal elections on October 13”
AP: “Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party is expected to continue its political dominance, but leading opposition parties planned to unite behind a single candidate in many cities, including the Hungarian capital of Budapest.”
Hungary Today: “The election of national minority self-government representatives will be held on October 13, coinciding with the election of local council representatives and mayors, the National Election Committee (NVB) said on Tuesday.”
Margaret L. Taylor, Brookings Institution: “Orbán passed a new constitution and reshaped Hungary into, as he describes it, an ‘illiberal democracy’….For more than a decade, Putin has done everything in his power to help Orbán succeed and encouraged a process that RT (the Russian state propaganda network), calls ‘the Orbánization of Europe.’”
Tim Gosling, Balkan Insight: “The stories countries tell about themselves are key to national identity — and authoritarian governments in Hungary and Poland have made it their mission to control the plot.”
Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – Expected Fall 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Blerta Begisholli, Balkan Insight: “Kosovo Parties Agitate for Elections After PM’s Resignation: Kosovo’s governing and opposition parties want new elections after Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj resigned, but President Hashim Thaci has still not made the first move towards setting a date.”
The Economist: “Kosovo’s prime minister faces war-crimes allegations: But do not write off Ramush Haradinaj’s career just yet”
Perparim Isufi, Balkan Insight: “Kosovo Government’s Legality Questioned after PM’s Resignation”
Leonat Shehu, VOA: “On Friday [July 26], Philip Kosnett, the U.S. ambassador to Kosovo, tweeted that the United States was ‘watching closely as Kosovo deals, for the first time, with a PM resignation. How it is handled will indicate the strength of Kosovo’s institutions and officials’ willingness to adhere to the Constitution and laws.’”
Portugal Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.
Reuters: “Portugal’s ruling Socialists remain favorites to win a parliamentary election in October but will fail to grab an absolute majority, according to a new poll.”
Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.
Hanna Kozlowska, Quartz: “Scores of Poles are revealing they are LGBT on Twitter after violent attacks on a pride parade….The LGBT community has become a punching bag for the ruling conservative Law and Justice party in the run-up to the EU parliamentary elections this spring and national parliamentary elections this fall. The party has equated support for the LGBT community with ‘Western,’ progressive values, which Law and Justice and its supporters eschew.”
Marc Santora and Joanna Berendt, New York Times: “Anti-Gay Brutality in a Polish Town Blamed on Poisonous Propaganda”
Martin Ehl, Transitions Online: “Tension in Polish society is growing between the outlook represented by the ruling conservatives and that represented by the more liberal opposition. That polarization reached its most extreme point with the murder of liberal Gdansk Mayor Pawel Adamowicz in January, during a charity concert.”
Wojciech Moskwa, Bloomberg: “Poland’s parliament is defying a binding court decision, reigniting a debate over the country’s alleged retreat from democratic standards before the fall general elections.”
Ruth Franklin, The New Yorker: “Olga Tokarczuk’s Novels Against Nationalism: In the face of the Polish government’s rightist dogma, the country’s preëminent writer explores its history of ethnic intermingling.”
Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.
BNE IntelliNews: “A rift is growing between the two members of Romania’s ruling coalition — the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its junior partner the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE) — after both parties picked their own leaders to run in this autumn’s presidential elections.”
Romania Insider: “One day after Romania’s ruling coalition’s senior party, the Social Democrat Party (PSD), nominated prime minister Viorica Dancila to run in the presidential elections, Senate head Calin Popescu Tariceanu, the leader of the junior ruling partner ALDE, declared he felt betrayed and disappointed and decided to enter the presidential campaign himself.”
Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free in 2019) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Maja Zivanovic, Balkan Insight: “Serbian Ruling Party and Opposition Meet for First Time….[Belgrade’s Faculty of Political Science dean Dragan] Simic confirmed that the meeting was about the conditions for holding elections, which was one of the main objections opposition put to the ruling Progressives over several months of street protests that are still being held every Saturday in the Serbian capital.”
Snezana Bjelotomic, Serbian Monitor: “Serbian opposition leader Dragan Djilas said a review of the country’s electoral rolls by international institutions would not create the conditions for the opposition to take part in elections. He said the opposition could take part in elections only it the clear demands of its expert team were met.”
RFE/RL: “Serbian Protests Continue As Ruling Party Marks Seven Years In Power”
United Kingdom Parliamentary – May 5, 2022 (early elections possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Following Prime Minister Theresa May’s resignation at the end of May as Conservative Party leader, the Tories held a leadership election. Former London mayor Boris Johnson, a bombastic Brexiteer, won.
Stephen Castle and Steven Erlanger, New York Times: “In Scotland there were boos, in Wales threats of unrest, and on Wednesday, things went little better in Northern Ireland for Britain’s new prime minister, Boris Johnson, as he wound up his tour this week of the nations of the United Kingdom.”
Jonathan Gorvett, Foreign Policy: “Will Brexit Be the End of the United Kingdom?”
Italy General – Due by May 2023 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
John Follain, Bloomberg: “That Night Matteo Salvini Nearly Forced An Election Over Stuffed Pasta Dinner: Italy’s most powerful political force decided to hold off abandoning the government, for now.”
Giorgio Ghiglione, Foreign Policy: “Can Giorgia Meloni Become Italy’s Marine Le Pen? Italy’s next far-right superstar wants to keep migrants out while welcoming members of the Mussolini family into her party. If Italy holds early elections, she may become a key member of the next government.”
Lillo Montalto Monella, Euronews: “Italian MP under witness protection, Piera Aiello, could lose her seat for using her real name”
Louise Hunt, World Politics Review: “Salvini’s Migrant Crackdown in Italy Is Creating a Crisis, Not Solving One”
Flavia Krause-Jackson, Bloomberg: “Once-a-year elections used to just be a wacky Italian phenomenon. No more. From Brexit-addled Britain to Catalonia-weary Spain, broken electoral systems are emerging as a defining feature in Europe.”
Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.
New Democracy won a majority, and was able to form a government on its own, without coalition partners.
The Economist: “Greece’s new government promises tax cuts and spending increases. But its official creditors are nervous.”
Susannah Verney, LSE’s EUROPP: “The waking giant goes back to sleep: European integration in the Greek elections: The prospect of Greece leaving the eurozone once dominated the country’s political agenda. Yet as Susannah Verney writes, in the 2019 Greek elections, relations with the EU were simply not an issue.”
The National Herald: “Backing off campaign tough talk that Greece could veto the newly-named North Macedonia’s European Union accession talks, new Prime Minister and New Democracy leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis said he won’t bar that country but wants still unspecified concessions.”
Dimitar Bechev, Foreign Policy: “Greece Is Getting Good at Geopolitics. How souring ties between Ankara and Washington benefit Athens.”
Belgium Parliamentary – May 26, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy
Peter Vanden Houte, ING: “It is now two months since national elections in Belgium and a new federal government is still not in place. Meanwhile, the economy is slowing while the budget is deteriorating.”
Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).
AFP: “How can Sanchez avoid fresh elections in Spain? Spain’s caretaker prime minister has vowed not to ‘throw in the towel’ after he lost a post-election vote of confidence in parliament on Thursday but his options to remain in power and avoid fresh elections are limited.”
Editorial Board, Financial Times: “Spain’s political gridlock is stalling further reform. Ciudadanos should rethink its opposition to supporting the Socialist party.”
Carlos E. Cué, El País: “Spain left wondering how a bid to form a government failed so badly Talks between the Socialist Party and leftist Unidas Podemos should not have ended this way. So why did they?”
Sebastiaan Faber and Bécquer Seguín, The Nation: “Will Spain Follow Europe’s Right-Wing Populist Trend? The left’s failure last week to form a coalition reflects deep distrust between the Socialists and their rival, Unidas Podemos—and the right is elated.”
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Estonia is the poster child for post-communist success. Kaja Kallas’ liberal Reform Party won Estonia’s March 2019 elections to the Riigikogu (parliament), but Prime Minister Juri Ratas pulled together a coalition with his Centre Party, the conservative Isamaa (Fatherland), and the far-right nationalist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), despite having promised before the election that he would not do a deal with EKRE. The Centre Party is nominally liberal but actually pro-Kremlin (the party is a member of Renew Europe, the European party formerly known as the Alliance of Liberals and Democrat in Europe, and also has a cooperation protocol with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia). The newly-formed liberal Estonia 200 did not win any seats. EKRE doubled its support from the previous elections and leader Mart Helme and his son Martin were both made ministers in the new government. They both flashed a white supremacist hand gesture at their swearing-in.
Viljar Veebel, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “The Rise of Right-Wing Populists in Estonia”
ERR News: “The tactic of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), the party to make the most noise by far recently, has paid off: if the Riigikogu elections were to take place right now, 19.4 percent of voters would vote for the coalition party. This is 2.7 percent more than in June, securing EKRE as the second most popular party in Estonia, writes daily Postimees.”
The Year Ahead: Europe
Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Hungary local (October 13); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Poland parliamentary (November); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)
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Category: This Week Tags: Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, United Kingdom