Europe This Week – July 3, 2019

July 3, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.

Nektaria Stamouli, Wall Street Journal: “Greece is expected to elect a conservative leader from an eminent political family next month—and become the first European country in recent times to revert to its establishment after being led by populist outsiders.”

Michele Kambas, Kathimerini: “All polls point to a victory for Mitsotakis, 51, an ex-venture capitalist and scion of a powerful political family who has mapped out his moves carefully since assuming the helm of New Democracy in early 2016. Mitsotakis’ father, Constantinos, was prime minister of Greece from 1990 to 1993, while Kyriakos’ sister, Dora Bakoyiannis, served as foreign minister of the country under New Democracy governments.”

Renee Maltezou, Reuters: “Frontrunner in Greek election says he is ready for ‘leap forward’”

Jessica Bateman, BBC: “Greek election: Why frustrated young voters are turning conservative”

Kerin Hope, Financial Times: “Alexis Tsipras places election hopes in rising Greek cabinet star. Effie Achtsioglou spearheads Syriza campaign but admits to doubts over life in politics”

Michele Kambas and Lefteris Papadimas, Reuters: “Unlikely Greek election candidate touts jobs and miracle cures”

Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic: “Greece Is Over Its Crisis, but Europe Isn’t. In Greece, a cycle is ending, and the country is returning to political normality. But across Europe, the legacy of its crisis is still a factor.”

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year.

Deborah Amos, NPR: “The assassination last month in Germany of a popular pro-migrant politician has raised alarm about a growing threat of right-wing terrorism. It was the first political assassination in more than half a century, and it has shaken the country.”

Constanze Stelzenmüller, Financial Times: “German radical right threatens the survival of democracy. Some domestic security agencies appear unwilling or unable to tackle the threat of extremism”

Philip Oltermann, The Guardian: “Germany slow to hear alarm bells in killing of Walter Lübcke. Calls for action to protect public servants and defend democracy as far right responds with aggression”

Sumi Somaskanda, The Atlantic: “The gap between east and west has narrowed over the past 30 years, and Angela Merkel, the country’s chancellor and arguably the most powerful woman in the world, is an East German. Yet with three key state elections in the east this fall, the region’s political disaffection has sparked a growing discussion on both sides of the divide to understand why the fault lines appear to be deepening.”

Tobias Buck, Financial Times: “Germany’s Green surge leaves Social Democrats fearing irrelevance. Politics shaken up by interest in environment and decline of working class vote”

Hungary Local – October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “Hungary Lawmakers Rescind Law Creating Orban-Controlled Tribunal”

Hungary Today: “The opposition Jobbik party has said it accepts the outcome of the Budapest local election preselection and will support the winner, Gergely Karácsony, and no other candidate….The statement added that Karácsony was the left-wing mayoral candidate and therefore Jobbik is not taking part in the campaign to promote him. But the party will not back any other candidate, it added.”

Bence Gaál, Budapest Business Journal: “Zugló Mayor Gergely Karácsony has won the opposition primary for mayor of Budapest and is set to face off against incumbent Mayor István Tarlós in municipal elections in the fall. However, while the opposition has pledged to unite behind Karácsony, media celebrity Róbert Puzsér says he will still run for mayor.”

Emerging Europe: “Former TV host and conservative pundit Róbert Puzsér may yet split the opposition vote, however. He pulled out of the primaries and has announced his own candidacy for the October election.”

Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “Robert Biedroń, the leader of Polish progressive party Wiosna has announced that he will initiate talks with the European Coalition, an alliance of Polish opposition parties, about the possibility of a joint run during the next parliamentary elections. Speaking at a press conference, Mr Biedroń said that he will meet opposition party leaders, including Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna, to discuss how to unite the opposition.” 

Bosnia Local - October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Alicia Prager, Quartz: “A new party wants to break Bosnia’s political deadlock using computer science”

Czech Republic Parliamentary - by October 2021 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Reuters: “Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said on Sunday there would be a snap election if his coalition partner goes through with threat to quit, raising the prospect of more political turmoil after weeks of street protests against his rule.”

Martin Michelot, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Protests in Prague: Beyond the Numbers: The estimated 250 000 people who protested in Prague’s Letná park on June 23, the largest-ever protest in the Czech Republic since the Velvet Revolution of 1989, caught the attention of analysts across the Continent who wondered whether Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš would be forced to resign.”

Albania Local – June 30, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Gjerji Erebara, Balkan Insight: “Observers’ Mission Criticizes Albania’s One-Party Elections: The international observation mission has criticized the lack of meaningful choice in the local elections in Albania, which the opposition boycotted, saying the ballot was held with little regard to the interests of the electorate.”

AP: “Albania’s president on Tuesday denounced Sunday’s municipal elections as a ‘farce’ and urged new polls to resolve the country’s political crisis.”

AP: “Albania’s local elections on Sunday are taking on more importance than usual as a test of democracy in the ex-communist state that hopes to start membership negotiations with the European Union.”

European Parliament - May 23-26, 2019

Bryony Jones, Milena Veselinovic and Luke McGee, CNN: “Europe’s leaders have agreed to give two of the top four European Union jobs to women, but only after a marathon set of talks that exposed the continent’s simmering divisions. German defense minister Ursula Von Der Leyen emerged as nominee for president of the European Commission, and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde, who is French, was put forward for the presidency of the European Central Bank.”

Patrick Donahue and Ian Wishart, Sydney Morning Herald: “After an epic wrangle, women to head EU institutions for first time”

Irene Kostaki New Europe: “The group president of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, has ended his bid to become president of the European Commission after the leaders of the EU moved to abandon the lead candidate, or Spitzenkandidaten, system.”

James Crisp, The Telegraph: “Analysis: Macron won the EU top jobs poker game – but may yet pay for his victory”

Ireland Local - May 24, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Harry McGee and Fiach Kelly, Irish Times: “Bruised Sinn Féin looks inward as it takes a dive in the May elections. Some believe SF must not only point to Government’s failings but also to solutions”

Spain Snap Parliamentary - April 28, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

AFP: “Spain could have a government by July 23rd (or face new elections)”

Estonia Parliamentary - March 3, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Konstantin Eggbert, DW: “Estonia’s conservative populists have taken aim at their media critics since joining the country’s government. High-profile journalists have quit their jobs as a result, and now warn that press freedom may be in danger.”

Past Elections
Greece Snap Parliamentary – July 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

After Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ left-wing populist Syriza suffered heavy losses during the European Parliament and local elections in May, Tsipras called a snap election. Elections were originally scheduled for October of this year. The center-right New Democracy, headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, won the most votes in the European elections and won key mayoral contests, and is projected to win the parliamentary polls. Syriza’s coalition partner, the far-right Independent Greeks (Anel), announced that they would not run candidates after winning less than one percent in the European elections.

Nektaria Stamouli, Wall Street Journal: “Greece is expected to elect a conservative leader from an eminent political family next month—and become the first European country in recent times to revert to its establishment after being led by populist outsiders.”

Michele Kambas, Kathimerini: “All polls point to a victory for Mitsotakis, 51, an ex-venture capitalist and scion of a powerful political family who has mapped out his moves carefully since assuming the helm of New Democracy in early 2016. Mitsotakis’ father, Constantinos, was prime minister of Greece from 1990 to 1993, while Kyriakos’ sister, Dora Bakoyiannis, served as foreign minister of the country under New Democracy governments.”

Renee Maltezou, Reuters: “Frontrunner in Greek election says he is ready for ‘leap forward’”

Jessica Bateman, BBC: “Greek election: Why frustrated young voters are turning conservative”

Kerin Hope, Financial Times: “Alexis Tsipras places election hopes in rising Greek cabinet star. Effie Achtsioglou spearheads Syriza campaign but admits to doubts over life in politics”

Michele Kambas and Lefteris Papadimas, Reuters: “Unlikely Greek election candidate touts jobs and miracle cures”

Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic: “Greece Is Over Its Crisis, but Europe Isn’t. In Greece, a cycle is ending, and the country is returning to political normality. But across Europe, the legacy of its crisis is still a factor.”

Germany State Elections – September 1, 2019 (Saxony and Brandenburg) and October 27, 2019 (Thuringia)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Germany has a federal system with 16 Länder (states) that each have their own constitution, parliament (Landtag) and state government. The states have autonomy over internal policy, but do not have their own tax authority, and political parties are quite centralized at the federal level. Three states in the east hold elections this year: Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia. Brandenburg is currently governed by a coalition of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the populist Left (die Linke). Saxony has a grand coalition of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to do well in all three state elections in the east this year.

Deborah Amos, NPR: “The assassination last month in Germany of a popular pro-migrant politician has raised alarm about a growing threat of right-wing terrorism. It was the first political assassination in more than half a century, and it has shaken the country.”

Constanze Stelzenmüller, Financial Times: “German radical right threatens the survival of democracy. Some domestic security agencies appear unwilling or unable to tackle the threat of extremism”

Philip Oltermann, The Guardian: “Germany slow to hear alarm bells in killing of Walter Lübcke. Calls for action to protect public servants and defend democracy as far right responds with aggression”

Sumi Somaskanda, The Atlantic: “The gap between east and west has narrowed over the past 30 years, and Angela Merkel, the country’s chancellor and arguably the most powerful woman in the world, is an East German. Yet with three key state elections in the east this fall, the region’s political disaffection has sparked a growing discussion on both sides of the divide to understand why the fault lines appear to be deepening.”

Tobias Buck, Financial Times: “Germany’s Green surge leaves Social Democrats fearing irrelevance. Politics shaken up by interest in environment and decline of working class vote”

Hungary Local – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year) – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban. However, opposition parties are divided on whether to back Karácsony or run their own candidates.

Zoltan Simon, Bloomberg: “Hungary Lawmakers Rescind Law Creating Orban-Controlled Tribunal”

Hungary Today: “The opposition Jobbik party has said it accepts the outcome of the Budapest local election preselection and will support the winner, Gergely Karácsony, and no other candidate….The statement added that Karácsony was the left-wing mayoral candidate and therefore Jobbik is not taking part in the campaign to promote him. But the party will not back any other candidate, it added.”

Bence Gaál, Budapest Business Journal: “Zugló Mayor Gergely Karácsony has won the opposition primary for mayor of Budapest and is set to face off against incumbent Mayor István Tarlós in municipal elections in the fall. However, while the opposition has pledged to unite behind Karácsony, media celebrity Róbert Puzsér says he will still run for mayor.”

Emerging Europe: “Former TV host and conservative pundit Róbert Puzsér may yet split the opposition vote, however. He pulled out of the primaries and has announced his own candidacy for the October election.”

Poland Parliamentary – Expected October/November 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “Robert Biedroń, the leader of Polish progressive party Wiosna has announced that he will initiate talks with the European Coalition, an alliance of Polish opposition parties, about the possibility of a joint run during the next parliamentary elections. Speaking at a press conference, Mr Biedroń said that he will meet opposition party leaders, including Civic Platform leader Grzegorz Schetyna, to discuss how to unite the opposition.” 

Bosnia Local – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Alicia Prager, Quartz: “A new party wants to break Bosnia’s political deadlock using computer science”

Czech Republic Parliamentary – by October 2021 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Reuters: “Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said on Sunday there would be a snap election if his coalition partner goes through with threat to quit, raising the prospect of more political turmoil after weeks of street protests against his rule.”

Martin Michelot, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: “Protests in Prague: Beyond the Numbers: The estimated 250 000 people who protested in Prague’s Letná park on June 23, the largest-ever protest in the Czech Republic since the Velvet Revolution of 1989, caught the attention of analysts across the Continent who wondered whether Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš would be forced to resign.”

Past Elections
Albania Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Albania is in the middle of a tense political standoff between Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialists and the main opposition center-right Democratic Party, led by Lulzim Basha. All but two MPs from the Democratic Party and one from the Socialist Movement for Integration (LSI) surrendered their parliamentary mandates in February, and have led a series of protests marred by violence. The opposition demands Rama’s resignation and new elections, and boycotted the local elections. President Ilir Meta cancelled the June 30 local elections and called on parties to reduce political tensions, but Rama proceeded with the polls anyway, and without the participation of the opposition, almost all seats went uncontested.

Gjerji Erebara, Balkan Insight: “Observers’ Mission Criticizes Albania’s One-Party Elections: The international observation mission has criticized the lack of meaningful choice in the local elections in Albania, which the opposition boycotted, saying the ballot was held with little regard to the interests of the electorate.”

AP: “Albania’s president on Tuesday denounced Sunday’s municipal elections as a ‘farce’ and urged new polls to resolve the country’s political crisis.”

AP: “Albania’s local elections on Sunday are taking on more importance than usual as a test of democracy in the ex-communist state that hopes to start membership negotiations with the European Union.”

European Parliament – May 23-26, 2019
Bryony Jones, Milena Veselinovic and Luke McGee, CNN: “Europe’s leaders have agreed to give two of the top four European Union jobs to women, but only after a marathon set of talks that exposed the continent’s simmering divisions. German defense minister Ursula Von Der Leyen emerged as nominee for president of the European Commission, and International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde, who is French, was put forward for the presidency of the European Central Bank.”

Patrick Donahue and Ian Wishart, Sydney Morning Herald: “After an epic wrangle, women to head EU institutions for first time”

Irene Kostaki New Europe: “The group president of the European People’s Party, Manfred Weber, has ended his bid to become president of the European Commission after the leaders of the EU moved to abandon the lead candidate, or Spitzenkandidaten, system.”

James Crisp, The Telegraph: “Analysis: Macron won the EU top jobs poker game – but may yet pay for his victory”

Ireland Local – May 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Harry McGee and Fiach Kelly, Irish Times: “Bruised Sinn Féin looks inward as it takes a dive in the May elections. Some believe SF must not only point to Government’s failings but also to solutions”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy

AFP: “Spain could have a government by July 23rd (or face new elections)”

Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Konstantin Eggbert, DW: “Estonia’s conservative populists have taken aim at their media critics since joining the country’s government. High-profile journalists have quit their jobs as a result, and now warn that press freedom may be in danger.”

The Year Ahead: Europe
Greece snap parliamentary (July 7); Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony states (September 1); Norway local (September 9); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Austria snap parliamentary (September 29); Hungary local (October);  Finland Åland regional parliament and local (October); Portugal parliamentary (October 6); Austria Vorarlberg state (October 13); Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Poland parliamentary (November); Romania presidential (November 3); Croatia presidential (December); Slovakia parliamentary (March 2020); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (March or April 2020); Poland presidential (May 2020); Iceland presidential (June 2020)

German defense minister Ursula von der Leyen will become the first female European Commission president following epic negotiations. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Olaf Kosinsky

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