Upcoming Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “With only 20 days left until Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on July 21, the latest poll shows that five political parties can overcome the 5 percent threshold to make it into the Verkhovna Rada. According to the survey published on July 1 by the Social Monitoring Center and the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, the five parties are: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, a Russia-friendly party Opposition Platform – For Life, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna, Ukraine’s rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voiceparty and Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.”
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “The most-wanted reform for Ukrainians is the fight against corruption, a new survey showed. The survey, published on July 3 by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center, identifies the top fields that Ukrainian want to see changed to better.”
Céline Marangé , War on the Rocks: “Ukraine’s political landscape has evolved significantly since 2014. Both elites and the population now largely agree on a pro-European stance. Russia won’t regain anytime soon the influence it used to enjoy before Maidan. Yet the Kremlin will retain some leverage as long as Ukraine’s state institutions remain imperiled by more corrupt political games among a handful of oligarchs.”
Mathieu Boulègue and Leo Litra, Chatham House: “Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s priority is domestic, not foreign policy, so his approach to international relations is only starting to take shape. A better understanding of Zelenskyi’s foreign policy goals will only be achievable until after the early parliamentary elections in July, and it is unclear when they will be fully set out and how he will differentiate achievable intentions from electoral promises.”
UNIAN: “Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy emphasizes the need to prevent Russian observers from the PACE from monitoring parliamentary elections in Ukraine in case the Russian delegation is reinstated in the PACE.”
Olga Rudenko, Kyiv Post: “Election Watch: 3 weeks left to campaign in July 21 parliament race”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Meduza: “Doubts began to circulate about the Russian regime’s chances of winning the St. Petersburg gubernatorial elections early last winter: it was late 2018 when Alexander Beglov’s campaign, took off, albeit unofficially.”
Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Fake Candidates, ‘Terrorist Threats,’ Detentions: In St. Petersburg, Kremlin Foes Face Minefield Just To Get On The Ballot”
Meduza: “Moscow Election Commission hints petition to include opposition candidates in City Duma elections is ‘impermissible’ illegal pressure”
Al Jazeera: “Russia’s opposition leader Navalny gets 10-day sentence. Long-time Putin critic Alexei Navalny has been jailed over role in unsanctioned Moscow rally held last month.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Vitalie Calugareanu, DW: “Moldova’s new PM ‘completely determined’ to clean up government. After the dramatic power struggle in Moldova, new Prime Minister Maia Sandu tells DW that her government’s first priority is to clear out the muck. One by one, she says, servants of the oligarch regime are leaving.”
Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russian Minister Kozak’s Mission in Moldova Unveils Kremlin Vision of Forced Non-Alignment for Europe’s East”
William H. Hill and David J. Kramer, The American Interest: “There is political momentum and popular desire for change within Moldova. However, the campaign for local elections will start August 20, and the ACUM-PSRM coalition was explicitly temporary. It is crucial now to put in place measures and programs supported by both coalition members which can endure even as the expected political competition between ACUM and the PSRM returns.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “As Putin Pushes a Merger, Belarus Resists With Language, Culture and History”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May, but their brutal response to protests could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Stratfor: “Georgia: A Stubborn Protest Wave Shows Few Signs of Ebbing”
Tornike Sharashenidze, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Too normal? Georgia, democracy, and the ‘Gavrilov crisis’: The sight of a Russian Communist presiding in their parliament has shocked Georgians into demanding greater democracy and circumspection towards Moscow.”
RFE/RL: “’Power In Truth’: Young Georgians Take Leading Roles As Protests Continue”
Maia Otarashvili, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “After a Full Week of Tbilisi Protests, Georgia’s Future Looks Partly Promising”
Agenda.ge: “Russian opposition party members in Tbilisi: ongoing protests are justified”
Agenda.ge: “All 100 legislators of the Georgian Dream ruling party are ready to support proportional voting system in the 2020 parliamentary elections. However, the change, which has been long demanded by the opposition, requires at least 113 votes in the 150-member parliament, General Secretary of the Georgian Dream ruling party Kakha Kaladze said earlier today.”
David Segal, New York Times: “Nominally a parliamentary democracy, Georgia has many of the trappings of a Western government, including free elections. But for years it has been firmly in the control of Mr. Ivanishvili, an introverted, yoga-practicing oligarch who was born in poverty in Georgia and who, critics say, is now primarily interested in enhancing his considerable fortune. Estimated at $5 billion, that fortune is equal to roughly one-third of Georgia’s gross domestic product.”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Almazbek Atambayev, the former president of Kyrgyzstan whose fate lies in the balance following parliament’s decision to strike down his immunity status, has mounted a high-stakes challenge to the government with a protest rally in the capital. Around 1,000 people attended the July 3 demonstration, which took place outside a building in eastern Bishkek known as Forum that has historically served as Atambayev headquarters.”
Chris Rickleton and Bekpolot Ibraimov, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Kingmaker lurks behind curtain as politics heat up. Matraimov and his money are said to have lain behind the rise and fall of many a top politician.”
Past Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
Marlene Laruelle, The Diplomat: “On Track to a Kazakh Spring? A political transition has opened new space for expressing discontent, especially among young Kazakhs.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Caroline Mishelle Aghajanian, Business Insider: “A year after Armenia’s 250,000-person revolution, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan explains what comes next for the country”
Tom Ball, The New Republic: “How to Stage a Successful Revolution: One year on from its stunning democratic coup, Armenia seems to be the new model.”
Colby Galliher, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: ‘The fate of Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko, another post-revolutionary leader in a former Soviet state, should illustrate for Pashinyan the perils of failing to keep promises to combat judicial corruption. Poroshenko was soundly defeated by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a political newcomer, in Ukraine’s runoff presidential election in April. To ensure his own political survival, Pashinyan needs to prove himself as a consistent and tireless driver of reform in Yerevan and beyond.”
Peter Liakhov, Eurasianet: “Armenia seeks transitional justice to overcome legacy of old regime. The concept has become a buzzword in Armenia, but fundamental questions remain on how it could be implemented.”
Eurasia This Week – July 4, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: July 16, 2019 by 21votes
July 4, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “With only 20 days left until Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on July 21, the latest poll shows that five political parties can overcome the 5 percent threshold to make it into the Verkhovna Rada. According to the survey published on July 1 by the Social Monitoring Center and the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, the five parties are: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, a Russia-friendly party Opposition Platform – For Life, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna, Ukraine’s rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voiceparty and Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.”
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “The most-wanted reform for Ukrainians is the fight against corruption, a new survey showed. The survey, published on July 3 by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center, identifies the top fields that Ukrainian want to see changed to better.”
Céline Marangé , War on the Rocks: “Ukraine’s political landscape has evolved significantly since 2014. Both elites and the population now largely agree on a pro-European stance. Russia won’t regain anytime soon the influence it used to enjoy before Maidan. Yet the Kremlin will retain some leverage as long as Ukraine’s state institutions remain imperiled by more corrupt political games among a handful of oligarchs.”
Mathieu Boulègue and Leo Litra, Chatham House: “Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s priority is domestic, not foreign policy, so his approach to international relations is only starting to take shape. A better understanding of Zelenskyi’s foreign policy goals will only be achievable until after the early parliamentary elections in July, and it is unclear when they will be fully set out and how he will differentiate achievable intentions from electoral promises.”
UNIAN: “Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy emphasizes the need to prevent Russian observers from the PACE from monitoring parliamentary elections in Ukraine in case the Russian delegation is reinstated in the PACE.”
Olga Rudenko, Kyiv Post: “Election Watch: 3 weeks left to campaign in July 21 parliament race”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Meduza: “Doubts began to circulate about the Russian regime’s chances of winning the St. Petersburg gubernatorial elections early last winter: it was late 2018 when Alexander Beglov’s campaign, took off, albeit unofficially.”
Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Fake Candidates, ‘Terrorist Threats,’ Detentions: In St. Petersburg, Kremlin Foes Face Minefield Just To Get On The Ballot”
Meduza: “Moscow Election Commission hints petition to include opposition candidates in City Duma elections is ‘impermissible’ illegal pressure”
Al Jazeera: “Russia’s opposition leader Navalny gets 10-day sentence. Long-time Putin critic Alexei Navalny has been jailed over role in unsanctioned Moscow rally held last month.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Vitalie Calugareanu, DW: “Moldova’s new PM ‘completely determined’ to clean up government. After the dramatic power struggle in Moldova, new Prime Minister Maia Sandu tells DW that her government’s first priority is to clear out the muck. One by one, she says, servants of the oligarch regime are leaving.”
Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russian Minister Kozak’s Mission in Moldova Unveils Kremlin Vision of Forced Non-Alignment for Europe’s East”
William H. Hill and David J. Kramer, The American Interest: “There is political momentum and popular desire for change within Moldova. However, the campaign for local elections will start August 20, and the ACUM-PSRM coalition was explicitly temporary. It is crucial now to put in place measures and programs supported by both coalition members which can endure even as the expected political competition between ACUM and the PSRM returns.”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May, but their brutal response to protests could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Stratfor: “Georgia: A Stubborn Protest Wave Shows Few Signs of Ebbing”
Tornike Sharashenidze, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Too normal? Georgia, democracy, and the ‘Gavrilov crisis’: The sight of a Russian Communist presiding in their parliament has shocked Georgians into demanding greater democracy and circumspection towards Moscow.”
RFE/RL: “’Power In Truth’: Young Georgians Take Leading Roles As Protests Continue”
Maia Otarashvili, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “After a Full Week of Tbilisi Protests, Georgia’s Future Looks Partly Promising”
Agenda.ge: “Russian opposition party members in Tbilisi: ongoing protests are justified”
Agenda.ge: “All 100 legislators of the Georgian Dream ruling party are ready to support proportional voting system in the 2020 parliamentary elections. However, the change, which has been long demanded by the opposition, requires at least 113 votes in the 150-member parliament, General Secretary of the Georgian Dream ruling party Kakha Kaladze said earlier today.”
David Segal, New York Times: “Nominally a parliamentary democracy, Georgia has many of the trappings of a Western government, including free elections. But for years it has been firmly in the control of Mr. Ivanishvili, an introverted, yoga-practicing oligarch who was born in poverty in Georgia and who, critics say, is now primarily interested in enhancing his considerable fortune. Estimated at $5 billion, that fortune is equal to roughly one-third of Georgia’s gross domestic product.”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary - October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Almazbek Atambayev, the former president of Kyrgyzstan whose fate lies in the balance following parliament’s decision to strike down his immunity status, has mounted a high-stakes challenge to the government with a protest rally in the capital. Around 1,000 people attended the July 3 demonstration, which took place outside a building in eastern Bishkek known as Forum that has historically served as Atambayev headquarters.”
Chris Rickleton and Bekpolot Ibraimov, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Kingmaker lurks behind curtain as politics heat up. Matraimov and his money are said to have lain behind the rise and fall of many a top politician.”
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
Marlene Laruelle, The Diplomat: “On Track to a Kazakh Spring? A political transition has opened new space for expressing discontent, especially among young Kazakhs.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Caroline Mishelle Aghajanian, Business Insider: “A year after Armenia’s 250,000-person revolution, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan explains what comes next for the country”
https://twitter.com/businessinsider/status/1144577183001636870
Tom Ball, The New Republic: “How to Stage a Successful Revolution: One year on from its stunning democratic coup, Armenia seems to be the new model.”
Colby Galliher, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: ‘The fate of Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko, another post-revolutionary leader in a former Soviet state, should illustrate for Pashinyan the perils of failing to keep promises to combat judicial corruption. Poroshenko was soundly defeated by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a political newcomer, in Ukraine’s runoff presidential election in April. To ensure his own political survival, Pashinyan needs to prove himself as a consistent and tireless driver of reform in Yerevan and beyond.”
Peter Liakhov, Eurasianet: “Armenia seeks transitional justice to overcome legacy of old regime. The concept has become a buzzword in Armenia, but fundamental questions remain on how it could be implemented.”
Upcoming Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “With only 20 days left until Ukraine’s parliamentary elections on July 21, the latest poll shows that five political parties can overcome the 5 percent threshold to make it into the Verkhovna Rada. According to the survey published on July 1 by the Social Monitoring Center and the Oleksandr Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, the five parties are: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, a Russia-friendly party Opposition Platform – For Life, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna, Ukraine’s rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk’s Voiceparty and Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.”
Daria Shulzhenko, Kyiv Post: “The most-wanted reform for Ukrainians is the fight against corruption, a new survey showed. The survey, published on July 3 by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and the Razumkov Center, identifies the top fields that Ukrainian want to see changed to better.”
Céline Marangé , War on the Rocks: “Ukraine’s political landscape has evolved significantly since 2014. Both elites and the population now largely agree on a pro-European stance. Russia won’t regain anytime soon the influence it used to enjoy before Maidan. Yet the Kremlin will retain some leverage as long as Ukraine’s state institutions remain imperiled by more corrupt political games among a handful of oligarchs.”
Mathieu Boulègue and Leo Litra, Chatham House: “Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s priority is domestic, not foreign policy, so his approach to international relations is only starting to take shape. A better understanding of Zelenskyi’s foreign policy goals will only be achievable until after the early parliamentary elections in July, and it is unclear when they will be fully set out and how he will differentiate achievable intentions from electoral promises.”
UNIAN: “Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Andriy Parubiy emphasizes the need to prevent Russian observers from the PACE from monitoring parliamentary elections in Ukraine in case the Russian delegation is reinstated in the PACE.”
Olga Rudenko, Kyiv Post: “Election Watch: 3 weeks left to campaign in July 21 parliament race”
Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.
However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.
Meduza: “Doubts began to circulate about the Russian regime’s chances of winning the St. Petersburg gubernatorial elections early last winter: it was late 2018 when Alexander Beglov’s campaign, took off, albeit unofficially.”
Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Fake Candidates, ‘Terrorist Threats,’ Detentions: In St. Petersburg, Kremlin Foes Face Minefield Just To Get On The Ballot”
Meduza: “Moscow Election Commission hints petition to include opposition candidates in City Duma elections is ‘impermissible’ illegal pressure”
Al Jazeera: “Russia’s opposition leader Navalny gets 10-day sentence. Long-time Putin critic Alexei Navalny has been jailed over role in unsanctioned Moscow rally held last month.”
Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Vitalie Calugareanu, DW: “Moldova’s new PM ‘completely determined’ to clean up government. After the dramatic power struggle in Moldova, new Prime Minister Maia Sandu tells DW that her government’s first priority is to clear out the muck. One by one, she says, servants of the oligarch regime are leaving.”
Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Russian Minister Kozak’s Mission in Moldova Unveils Kremlin Vision of Forced Non-Alignment for Europe’s East”
William H. Hill and David J. Kramer, The American Interest: “There is political momentum and popular desire for change within Moldova. However, the campaign for local elections will start August 20, and the ACUM-PSRM coalition was explicitly temporary. It is crucial now to put in place measures and programs supported by both coalition members which can endure even as the expected political competition between ACUM and the PSRM returns.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Andrew Higgins, New York Times: “As Putin Pushes a Merger, Belarus Resists With Language, Culture and History”
Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May, but their brutal response to protests could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Stratfor: “Georgia: A Stubborn Protest Wave Shows Few Signs of Ebbing”
Tornike Sharashenidze, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Too normal? Georgia, democracy, and the ‘Gavrilov crisis’: The sight of a Russian Communist presiding in their parliament has shocked Georgians into demanding greater democracy and circumspection towards Moscow.”
RFE/RL: “’Power In Truth’: Young Georgians Take Leading Roles As Protests Continue”
Maia Otarashvili, Foreign Policy Research Institute: “After a Full Week of Tbilisi Protests, Georgia’s Future Looks Partly Promising”
Agenda.ge: “Russian opposition party members in Tbilisi: ongoing protests are justified”
Agenda.ge: “All 100 legislators of the Georgian Dream ruling party are ready to support proportional voting system in the 2020 parliamentary elections. However, the change, which has been long demanded by the opposition, requires at least 113 votes in the 150-member parliament, General Secretary of the Georgian Dream ruling party Kakha Kaladze said earlier today.”
David Segal, New York Times: “Nominally a parliamentary democracy, Georgia has many of the trappings of a Western government, including free elections. But for years it has been firmly in the control of Mr. Ivanishvili, an introverted, yoga-practicing oligarch who was born in poverty in Georgia and who, critics say, is now primarily interested in enhancing his considerable fortune. Estimated at $5 billion, that fortune is equal to roughly one-third of Georgia’s gross domestic product.”
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Nurjamal Djanibekova, Eurasianet: “Almazbek Atambayev, the former president of Kyrgyzstan whose fate lies in the balance following parliament’s decision to strike down his immunity status, has mounted a high-stakes challenge to the government with a protest rally in the capital. Around 1,000 people attended the July 3 demonstration, which took place outside a building in eastern Bishkek known as Forum that has historically served as Atambayev headquarters.”
Chris Rickleton and Bekpolot Ibraimov, Eurasianet: “Kyrgyzstan: Kingmaker lurks behind curtain as politics heat up. Matraimov and his money are said to have lain behind the rise and fall of many a top politician.”
Past Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
Marlene Laruelle, The Diplomat: “On Track to a Kazakh Spring? A political transition has opened new space for expressing discontent, especially among young Kazakhs.”
Armenia Snap Parliamentary – December 9, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
On December 9, Armenia’s snap parliamentary elections officially elected former MP and journalist Nikol Pashinyan as prime minister. The snap elections followed a series of protests that led to the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan, Armenia’s former president who became prime minister in an attempt to remain in power when faced with term limits. This has been dubbed Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution.” The Economist named Armenia country of the year for 2018.
Caroline Mishelle Aghajanian, Business Insider: “A year after Armenia’s 250,000-person revolution, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan explains what comes next for the country”
Tom Ball, The New Republic: “How to Stage a Successful Revolution: One year on from its stunning democratic coup, Armenia seems to be the new model.”
Colby Galliher, Atlantic Council’s New Atlanticist: ‘The fate of Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko, another post-revolutionary leader in a former Soviet state, should illustrate for Pashinyan the perils of failing to keep promises to combat judicial corruption. Poroshenko was soundly defeated by comedian Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a political newcomer, in Ukraine’s runoff presidential election in April. To ensure his own political survival, Pashinyan needs to prove himself as a consistent and tireless driver of reform in Yerevan and beyond.”
Peter Liakhov, Eurasianet: “Armenia seeks transitional justice to overcome legacy of old regime. The concept has become a buzzword in Armenia, but fundamental questions remain on how it could be implemented.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Ukraine