April 14, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
The Bangka Lungshan Temple in Taipei, Taiwan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Ray Terrill (CC BY-SA 2.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)
Lisa Du and Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (April 15, 2023): Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Unhurt, Resumes Campaigning After Bomb Scare
Justin McCurry, The Guardian (April 10, 2023): Japan ruling party triumphs in local elections despite criticism over links to Moonies
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Toru Takahashi, Nikkei Asia (April 9, 2023): Can Thailand’s Democrat Party survive upcoming election?
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.
Voice of America (April 15, 2023): Cambodia’s Opposition Hopes for a Silent Surge in Upcoming National Election
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due – unlikely to be free or fair if they happen)
Hong Kong’s 2021 elections to the Legislative Council took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
Now, 47 pro-democracy Hong Kong politicians are on trial for subversion because they organized a primary ahead of the 2021 elections.
Natalie Wong at the South China Morning Post notes: “Months before the district election was expected to be held, an insider familiar with the plan said the 1,440-strong Election Committee might be given power to pick ‘a significant number’ of councillors in the municipal bodies, once the bastion of the now decimated opposition camp….Another source said he had also heard of the plan, adding that together with the possible resumption of a government appointment mechanism, ‘less than half’ of the seats would be chosen by the public.”
Jess Ma Willa Wu, and Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post (April 14, 2023): District councils to be purely advisory bodies formed by patriots, Beijing’s top official overseeing Hong Kong quoted as saying
Lea Mok, Hong Kong Free Press (April 14, 2023): Half of Hongkongers unable to name any serving lawmaker, poll finds
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, 2021 the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence).
Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.
The Irrawaddy (April 12, 2023): How Myanmar Junta’s Plan to Deceive World With Sham Election Failed
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
New Zealand’s October general elections got a bit more interesting following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, considered a star on the global stage but under increasing pressure in New Zealand due to her authoritarian tendencies and failure to deliver on basic campaign promises.
Ardern cited personal reasons for her resignation, but under her leadership, the Labour Party lost a lot of support. Currently, the center-right Nationals are favored to win the elections, but a lot can happen in a few months.
Chris Hipkins succeeded Ardern as prime minister and immediately began rolling back some of her restrictions on speech and other authoritarian policies, saying instead that the Labour Party should focus on bread-and-butter issues.
Tess McClure, The Guardian (April 11, 2023): New Zealand Labour tied with National in latest polls, six months out from election
Geoffrey Miller, The Diplomat (April 11, 2023): New Zealand Is Getting Closer to NATO
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024
Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.
Shannon Tiezzi, The Diplomat (April 14, 2023): With DPP’s Candidate Pick, Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Race Begins
AP (April 12, 2023): Taiwan’s ruling party taps VP as presidential candidate
Lauren Sforza, The Hill (April 9, 2023): McCaul says China could influence, take over Taiwan in next election ‘without a shot fired’
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Reuters (April 11, 2023): Indonesia court overturns order to delay 2024 elections
Sri Lanka Local Elections: Postponed indefinitely
Sri Lanka had planned to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. However, the government called them off. A court subsequently ordered that they be held, and the election commission has announced the they will take place on April 25.
The protests last year led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.
Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.
PTI (April 11, 2023): Sri Lanka’s local body polls postponed indefinitely due to lack of funds: Election Commission
Democracy in Asia
Lee Chung Lun, The Diplomat (April 13, 2023): The Battle for Democracy: A Look at Thailand and Cambodia’s 2023 Elections
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Bhutan Upper House Elections: April 20, 2023
Japan, Unified Local Elections, Second Stage: April 23, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: April 25, 2023 (additional delays possible)
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas This Week: April 15, 2023
Last Updated: April 27, 2023 by 21votes Leave a Comment
April 15, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.
Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.
Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.
Channel News Asia (April 10, 2023): China trying to snatch away Paraguay as presidential election nears: MOFA
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Guatemala’s last elections, in 2019, took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
The Dialogue (April 14, 2023): Who Has the Edge in Guatemala’s Presidential Race?
Jeff Abbott, Al Jazeera (April 10, 2023): Guatemala elections: Campaigning begins amid public distrust
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Richard Sanders, Wilson Center (April 14, 2023): A Sharp Right Turn for Argentina?
Horacio Soria and Juan Carlos Bustamante, Reuters (April 14, 2023): ‘Zero capacity to save’: Argentines buckle as inflation tops 104%
Inga Ting, ABC News Australia (April 10, 2023): How Argentina went from one of the world’s richest nations to 100 per cent inflation, with ‘mountains of money worth nothing’
Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)
Venezuela’s political, constitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. The country became an authoritarian state under the now-deceased Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and completely transformed the country from a prosperous democracy to a leftist dictatorship. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has continued on that path. Socialist economic policies have destroyed the economy. Although Venezuela is a major oil producer, 90 percent of Venezuelans cannot afford sufficient food and many have fled. Moreover, the capital, Caracas, has become one of the most violent cities in the world.
Nonetheless, Venezuela’s opposition is active and occasionally makes gains.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime.
GZERO (April 13, 2023): Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela?
Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)
Rod Nickel and Steve Scherer, Reuters (April 14, 2023): Trudeau’s top aide tight-lipped on Chinese election meddling in Canada, citing security
BBC (April 12, 2023): Trudeau Foundation leadership resigns over China-linked donation
Brian Lee Crowley, Wall Street Journal (April 10, 2023): Justin Trudeau Shrugs at Chinese Election Interference
Past Americas Elections
Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023
Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.
The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s. Now, some are calling for Lasso’s impeachment and/or early elections.
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (April 12, 2023): Ecuador’s president, a U.S. ally, is facing impeachment. But some of his accusers are hypocritical
Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)
Andrea Moncada, Americas Quarterly (April 10, 2023): Why Dina Boluarte Could Make it to 2026
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in Neuquén and Río Negro: April 16, 2023
British Virgin Islands Assembly Elections: April 24, 2023
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in Jujuy, Misiones and La Rioja: May 7, 2023
Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego: May 14, 2023
Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023
Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Legislative Elections in Corrientes: June 4, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in San Luis: June 11, 2023
Guyana Local Elections: June 12, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in Córdoba: June 18, 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023
Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023
Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023
Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023
Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023
Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023
Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)
Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)
Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia This Week: April 14, 2023
Last Updated: January 5, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
April 14, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)
Lisa Du and Isabel Reynolds, Bloomberg (April 15, 2023): Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Unhurt, Resumes Campaigning After Bomb Scare
Justin McCurry, The Guardian (April 10, 2023): Japan ruling party triumphs in local elections despite criticism over links to Moonies
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Toru Takahashi, Nikkei Asia (April 9, 2023): Can Thailand’s Democrat Party survive upcoming election?
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.
Voice of America (April 15, 2023): Cambodia’s Opposition Hopes for a Silent Surge in Upcoming National Election
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due – unlikely to be free or fair if they happen)
Hong Kong’s 2021 elections to the Legislative Council took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
Now, 47 pro-democracy Hong Kong politicians are on trial for subversion because they organized a primary ahead of the 2021 elections.
Natalie Wong at the South China Morning Post notes: “Months before the district election was expected to be held, an insider familiar with the plan said the 1,440-strong Election Committee might be given power to pick ‘a significant number’ of councillors in the municipal bodies, once the bastion of the now decimated opposition camp….Another source said he had also heard of the plan, adding that together with the possible resumption of a government appointment mechanism, ‘less than half’ of the seats would be chosen by the public.”
Jess Ma Willa Wu, and Natalie Wong, South China Morning Post (April 14, 2023): District councils to be purely advisory bodies formed by patriots, Beijing’s top official overseeing Hong Kong quoted as saying
Lea Mok, Hong Kong Free Press (April 14, 2023): Half of Hongkongers unable to name any serving lawmaker, poll finds
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, 2021 the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence).
Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.
The Irrawaddy (April 12, 2023): How Myanmar Junta’s Plan to Deceive World With Sham Election Failed
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
New Zealand’s October general elections got a bit more interesting following the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, considered a star on the global stage but under increasing pressure in New Zealand due to her authoritarian tendencies and failure to deliver on basic campaign promises.
Ardern cited personal reasons for her resignation, but under her leadership, the Labour Party lost a lot of support. Currently, the center-right Nationals are favored to win the elections, but a lot can happen in a few months.
Chris Hipkins succeeded Ardern as prime minister and immediately began rolling back some of her restrictions on speech and other authoritarian policies, saying instead that the Labour Party should focus on bread-and-butter issues.
Tess McClure, The Guardian (April 11, 2023): New Zealand Labour tied with National in latest polls, six months out from election
Geoffrey Miller, The Diplomat (April 11, 2023): New Zealand Is Getting Closer to NATO
Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024
Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.
Shannon Tiezzi, The Diplomat (April 14, 2023): With DPP’s Candidate Pick, Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Race Begins
AP (April 12, 2023): Taiwan’s ruling party taps VP as presidential candidate
Lauren Sforza, The Hill (April 9, 2023): McCaul says China could influence, take over Taiwan in next election ‘without a shot fired’
Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024
Indonesia has scheduled presidential and legislative elections for February 14, 2024, followed by provincial elections on November 27, 2024, ending speculation that President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) would seek to delay the election and extend his term.
In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics.
As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.
Reuters (April 11, 2023): Indonesia court overturns order to delay 2024 elections
Sri Lanka Local Elections: Postponed indefinitely
Sri Lanka had planned to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. However, the government called them off. A court subsequently ordered that they be held, and the election commission has announced the they will take place on April 25.
The protests last year led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.
Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.
PTI (April 11, 2023): Sri Lanka’s local body polls postponed indefinitely due to lack of funds: Election Commission
Democracy in Asia
Lee Chung Lun, The Diplomat (April 13, 2023): The Battle for Democracy: A Look at Thailand and Cambodia’s 2023 Elections
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Bhutan Upper House Elections: April 20, 2023
Japan, Unified Local Elections, Second Stage: April 23, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: April 25, 2023 (additional delays possible)
Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023
Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia This Week: April 13, 2023
Last Updated: April 27, 2023 by 21votes Leave a Comment
April 13, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023
Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040.
Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.
Eurasianet (April 12, 2023): Déjà vu in Uzbekistan as referendum will keep strongman in power
Akrom Avezov, The Diplomat (April 10, 2023): Old Tricks in a New Uzbekistan: Constitutional Reform and Popular Legitimacy
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.
IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”
Tatiana Stanovaya, Foreign Affairs (April 11, 2023): Putin’s Peril: The Kremlin’s Strongman Is Not as Secure as He Seems
Tony Barber, Financial Times (April 6, 2023): A post-Putin Russia may look like Serbia after Milošević: Nationalist grievances make stony ground for liberal democracy and good relations with the west
Meduza (April 6, 2023): ‘Unlimited potential for fraud’: Online voting is the key to Russia’s election rigging, but the next presidential election will require gerrymandering too
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.
The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.
Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.
On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.
RFE/RL (April 14, 2023): Moldovan Court Increases Fugitive Shor’s Prison Sentence To 15 Years
Kyiv Independent (April 13, 2023): Moldova’s top pro-Kremlin politician sentenced to 15 years in prison
AP (April 13, 2023): Ukraine, Romania, Moldova Boost Ties At Security Meeting
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)
The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government).
The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.
The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote.
Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.
Nino Narimanishvili, JAMnews (April 10, 2023): What is the Georgian opposition’s plan to change the government?
Past Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes.
The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Marie Dumoulin, European Council on Foreign Relations (April 13, 2023): Steppe change: How Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
Gaziz Abishev, Carnegie Endowment (April 12, 2023): Has Kazakhstan Become More Democratic Following Recent Elections?
RFE/RL (April 12, 2023): Kazakh Police Detain Two Opposition Figures Over Rallies Challenging Election Results
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe This Week: April 12, 2023
Last Updated: April 27, 2023 by 21votes Leave a Comment
April 12, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Europe Elections
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023, followed by general elections due in 2024
The United Kingdom holds local elections in some parts of England in May, a test for new PM Rishi Sunak (the fourth prime minister to hold office since the 2019 general elections).
Dominic Penna and Ben Butcher, The Telegraph (April 13, 2023): Local elections 2023: Date and the results to watch out for
Nick Eardley, BBC (April 12, 2023): Local elections 2023: What to expect from May’s polls in England
Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
Greece has set parliamentary elections for May 21, 2023, a week after Turkey goes to the polls. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents and a train crash that killed dozens of people.
Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (April 11, 2023): Greek parliament votes to ban extreme-right party from elections
AP (April 11, 2023): Greece: Thaw with Turkey should continue after elections
Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023 (following presidential elections in March and April 2023)
In Montenegro’s recent presidential election, incumbent Milo Djukanovic, who has been president or PM for 33 years, lost to former economy minister Jakov Milatovic. Next up, the country holds snap parliamentary elections in June.
The last elections, the fifth since independence from Serbia in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government, but that proved short-lived. Several other governments have risen and fallen, and the political situation remains unstable.
Devin Haas, Emerging Europe (April 6, 2023): In Montenegro, a changing of the guard
AP (April 6, 2023): Milatovic Confirmed Victorious In Landslide Montenegrin Election
Past Europe Elections
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Bulgaria held its fifth election in two years, but the results could continue the ongoing political stalemate.
Dimitar Bechev, Politico (April 13, 2023): Bulgaria: No light at the end of the tunnel
Tom Junes, Balkan Insight (April 11, 2023): Fifth Election Leaves Bulgaria’s Political Stalemate in Place
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Finland held general elections in the context of its bid to join NATO after ending a long-standing policy of neutrality. Incumbent Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats placed third, behind the conservative National Coalition Party and the nationalist Finns Party, which placed first and second respectively. National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo will have the first shot at forming a government.
Tapio Raunio, London School of Economics (April 6, 2023): The pendulum swings to the right again in Finland
Estonia Parliamentary Elections: March 5, 2023
Estonia’s center-right, pro-west Reform Party came in first place in the March 5 elections, and has formed a coalition to keep the current prime minister, Kaja Kallas, in power.
Laura Kayali, Politico (April 9, 2023): Estonia’s Kaja Kallas secures government coalition agreement
France Elections: 2022
France held presidential and legislative elections in 2022. Emmanuel Macron was re-elected president, defeating right-wing Marine Le Pen by a significant margin. The next presidential election is not due until 2027.
Silvia Amaro, CNBC (April 12, 2023): Macron bypassed parliament and angered French citizens, setting up the far right for a bounce
AP (April 12, 2023): France’s Macron argues protests are a social price that governments have to pay to push reforms
Nicolas Camut, Politico (April 11, 2023): China hawks tell Macron: You don’t speak for Europe
John Keiger, The Spectator (April 8, 2023): Macron’s France is at a turning point
Henry Samuel, The Telegraph (April 6, 2023): Marine Le Pen ‘would beat Emmanuel Macron in re-run of French election’
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023
Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.
In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.
Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023
Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023
Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023
Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023
Luxembourg Local Elections: June 11, 2023
Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023
Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023
Luxembourg General Elections: October 8, 2023
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)
Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023
Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Middle East This Week: April 11, 2023
Last Updated: April 22, 2023 by 21votes Leave a Comment
April 11, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Ongoing Middle East Elections
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing
Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament).
The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.
The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate.
As a result of not having a president, Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government is operating in a caretaker capacity, and it is exacerbating Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, with the currency hitting new record lows.
Najia Houssari, Arab News (April 5, 2023): Maronite patriarch, Christian deputies attend spiritual retreat on Lebanon’s presidential elections
Hanna Davis, Axios (April 5, 2023): Lebanon crisis threatens stability of security forces
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.
Turkey’s opposition made the decision to field a single candidate against Erdoğan in this year’s election. The government barred Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu from running, so the opposition candidate will be Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). While AKP has its roots in political Islam, CHP is staunchly secularist, having been founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.
In addition, two other candidates are running: Muharrem Ince, who was CHP’s candidate in the last elections, and Sinan Oğan, a former MP from the nationalist MHP. Ince has been described as a spoiler. Following his defeat in the CHP leadership contest, he formed a new party called Memleket (which means Homeland). He is known or his combative style, in contrast to the more mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu.
While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.
The campaign is taking place in the context of the aftermath of an earthquake that ravaged the Turkey-Syria borer on February 6, striking Gaziantep province and killing more than 30,000 people and injuring tens of thousands.
Al Jazeera (April 11, 2023): Economy tops Erdogan’s manifesto for Turkish elections
Mahmut Bozarslan, Al-Monitor (April 9, 2023): In Turkey, Erdogan challenger attracts solid Kurdish support, a decisive vote
Kristina Jovanovski, The Media Line (April 7, 2023): Erdogan criticizes US over meeting with opposition ahead of elections: Analysts say Turkey’s relations with the West will quickly improve if the opposition wins
Ayla Jean Yackley, Financial Times (April 6, 2023): ‘Kurds will be decisive’: Erdoğan opponent piles on Turkey election pressure from prison
Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab: May 14, 2023, followed by General Elections: October 12, 2023 (early elections possible)
Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister. Since then, Khan has sought to force earlier elections as his popularity continues to rise in opinion polls.
This is all taking place in the context of an economic crisis, with soaring prices and rolling blackouts. As a result, the government risks losing the next elections. But delaying the election also creates challenges, given how angry voters are.
Arif Rafiq observes: “There is little appetite to live in a country where upward mobility and political rights are denied by the civilian-military elite. Many Pakistanis are now voting with their feet. Over 800,000 Pakistanis left the country to work abroad last year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to a Gallup Pakistan survey, over fifty percent of Pakistanis with a university degree would like to leave the country.”
Al Jazeera (April 6, 2023): Pakistan parliament rejects court order for snap provincial polls
Adnan Aamir, Nikkei Asia (April 5, 2023): Pakistan faces constitutional crisis over elections: What to know
Betsy Joles, Foreign Policy (April 5, 2023): The Many Trials of Imran Khan: The ousted Pakistani leader and his party face dozens of charges he says are politicized—but he hasn’t been arrested yet
Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
France24 (April 9, 2023): Hundreds of Tunisians protest to demand release of President Saied’s opponents
Nadeen Ebrahim and Dalya Al Masri, CNN, (April 5, 2023): Tunisian president’s mystery ‘disappearance’ raises questions about his health
Alessandra Bajec, Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (April 6, 2023): Political Arrests in Tunisia Mark Escalation in Kais Saied’s Power Consolidation
Past Middle East Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 1, 2022
Israel has held five sets of general elections over the past four years. The most recent returned Bibi Netanyahu to power, this time heading what has been called the country’s most right-wing government to date.
Israeli is currently experiencing some of the biggest protests in its history, some involving 100,000 people, sparked by Netanyahu’s plan to overhaul the judiciary. Critics of the plan say that it would remove a key set of checks and balances in policymaking and give whoever has the majority in parliament too much power, while proponents say that the judiciary currently has too much of a de facto veto over policy and reforms are necessary.
But even some who support reforms take issue with the fact that this is being done so quickly, without taking the time to build consensus. President Yitzhak Herzog made a rare statement warning of a potential constitutional collapse.
Josh Lederman, NBC News (April 11, 2023): Security and political crises in Israel converge to create a perfect storm
Reuters (April 10, 2023): Netanyahu’s Likud party plummets in local news poll
Barak Ravid, Axios (April 10, 2023): In reversal, Netanyahu says he’s keeping Gallant as Israel’s defense minister
Tovah Lazaroff, Jerusalem Post (April 10, 2023): Opposition leader Yair Lapid heads to US in attempt to repair frayed ties
Kuwait Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 29, 2022
Although the monarchy appoints the government, Kuwait has one of the most powerful parliaments in the Gulf.
AP notes: “In September, voters sent conservative Islamist figures and two women to the assembly in the second election in less than two years. The election results were seen as a mandate for change amid a prolonged period of gridlock between the Cabinet and the 50-member assembly.”
Yousef H Alshammari and Anwar Alrougui, Al Jazeera (April 11, 2023): Kuwait’s political crisis leaves opposition waiting for new era: A new government in Kuwait, but an old parliament – and one that has returned in complicated circumstances
AFP (April 9, 2023): Kuwait gets its seventh government in three years
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023
Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in April 2023
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023
Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: May 14, 2023
Lebanon Local Elections: May 31, 2023 (postponed from 2022 – additional delays possible)
Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)
Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)
Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023
Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.