Americas This Week: April 15, 2023

April 15, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

A market in the mountain town of Chichicastenango, Guatemala. Photo credit: Wikimedia/chensiyuan (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.

Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

Channel News Asia (April 10, 2023): China trying to snatch away Paraguay as presidential election nears: MOFA

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Guatemala’s last elections, in 2019, took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

The Dialogue (April 14, 2023): Who Has the Edge in Guatemala’s Presidential Race?

Jeff Abbott, Al Jazeera (April 10, 2023): Guatemala elections: Campaigning begins amid public distrust

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Richard Sanders, Wilson Center (April 14, 2023): A Sharp Right Turn for Argentina?

Horacio Soria and Juan Carlos Bustamante, Reuters (April 14, 2023): ‘Zero capacity to save’: Argentines buckle as inflation tops 104%

Inga Ting, ABC News Australia (April 10, 2023): How Argentina went from one of the world’s richest nations to 100 per cent inflation, with ‘mountains of money worth nothing’

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)

Venezuela’s politicalconstitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. The country became an authoritarian state under the now-deceased Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and completely transformed the country from a prosperous democracy to a leftist dictatorship. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has continued on that path. Socialist economic policies have destroyed the economy. Although Venezuela is a major oil producer, 90 percent of Venezuelans cannot afford sufficient food and many have fled. Moreover, the capital, Caracas, has become one of the most violent cities in the world.

Nonetheless, Venezuela’s opposition is active and occasionally makes gains.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime.

GZERO (April 13, 2023): Maduro’s not going anywhere. What comes next for Venezuela?

Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)

Rod Nickel and Steve Scherer, Reuters (April 14, 2023): Trudeau’s top aide tight-lipped on Chinese election meddling in Canada, citing security

BBC (April 12, 2023): Trudeau Foundation leadership resigns over China-linked donation

Brian Lee Crowley, Wall Street Journal (April 10, 2023): Justin Trudeau Shrugs at Chinese Election Interference

Past Americas Elections

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.

The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s. Now, some are calling for Lasso’s impeachment and/or early elections.

Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (April 12, 2023): Ecuador’s president, a U.S. ally, is facing impeachment. But some of his accusers are hypocritical

Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)

Andrea Moncada, Americas Quarterly (April 10, 2023): Why Dina Boluarte Could Make it to 2026

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Neuquén and Río Negro: April 16, 2023

British Virgin Islands Assembly Elections: April 24, 2023

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Jujuy, Misiones and La Rioja: May 7, 2023

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego: May 14, 2023

Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Legislative Elections in Corrientes: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in San Luis: June 11, 2023

Guyana Local Elections: June 12, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Córdoba: June 18, 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

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