Asia This Week: April 21, 2023

Asia Elections Weekly News Review: April 22, 2023 - 21votes

April 21, 2023

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Landscape in Bobonaro, Timor-Leste. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Hans-Peter Grumpe (GFDL 1.2)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

Japan Unified Local Elections and Parliamentary By-Elections: April 9, 2023 and April 23, 2023 (next national elections due in 2025)

Kana Inagaki, Finanial Times (April 19, 2023): Ukraine and baseball put Japan’s Fumio Kishida back in the game: Prime minister receives approval rating boost from foreign diplomacy push ahead of local by-elections

Thisanka Siripala, The Diplomat (April 18, 2023): Japan PM Escapes Election Bomb Attack: Less than a year after Abe’s murder, violence again erupted on the election campaign trail, raising concerns about how to protect public figures in Japan.

Reuters (April 18, 2023): Suspect in attack on Japan PM had sued government over election -Yomiuri

JIJI (April 16, 2023): Campaigning starts for second half of Japan’s unified polls

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. Prayuth is running for another term, but so is his mentor, fellow royalist military officer Prawit Wongsuwan. They will face the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra is running. 

Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. 

Punchada Sirivunnabood, The Diplomat (April 20, 2023): Thailand’s General Election: Can the Winner Really Take All?

Marwaan Macan-Markar, Nikkei Asia (April 17, 2023): Thailand’s largest opposition faces dissolution fears after election

Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Timor-Leste (also called East Timor) held presidential elections in 2022 that returned José Ramos-Horta to office after he defeated incumbent Francisco Guterres, called Lú-Olo. Ramos-Horta was a leader in the country’s independence movement and served as president from 2008-2012, and before that as prime minister and foreign minister.

Following the 2022 election, Ramos-Horta turned heads around the world when he announced that he would expand bilateral ties with China.

Timor-Leste is a semi-presidential system, with the prime minister holding significant powers. Currently, the prime minister is José Maria Vasconcelos, widely known by his nom de guerre “Taur Matan Ruak,” from Fretilin, the former resistance movement that is now one of Timor-Leste’s two major parties, the other being CNRT, which is Ramos-Horta’s party.   

Since winning independence from Indonesia in a referendum 20 years ago, Timor-Leste has become a democracy rated Free by Freedom House, although many challenges remain.

Parker Novak, Lowy Institute (April 18, 2023): Rallies, flags and motorbikes: it’s election time in Timor-Leste

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that have had some element of competition, the 2018 elections – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”

The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.

However, in early 2022, the opposition began gaining ground, reorganizing itself into the Candlelight Party. In the June local elections, the party made some gains, winning around 22 percent of the vote. Opposition activists hope that will translate into a stronger result in the 2023 elections.

Radio Free Asia (April 21, 2023): Top opposition party youth leader switches allegiance to Hun Sen’s ruling party

Ben Lawrence, World Politics Review (April 19, 2023): Hun Sen Is Tightening His Grip Ahead of Cambodia’s Elections

Radio Free Asia (April 19, 2023): Cambodian court orders arrest of opposition party officials

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, 2021 the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence).

Burma is of geopolitical importance because of its location on the Indian Ocean. China has sought to cultivate ties in order to get more access to the Indian Ocean, and simultaneously, western governments have at times pursued warmer relations with the regime.

Radio Free Asia (April 19, 2023): Myanmar’s junta-controlled Supreme Court to hear appeal by Aung San Suu Kyi

James Snell, The Spectator (April 17, 2023): Why the world shouldn’t ignore the brutal war in Burma

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner. 

Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”

Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country. 

Mubashar Hasan, The Diplomat (April 20, 2023): Bangladesh’s Free Press Is Under Fire

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024

Taiwan’s governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.

The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT). Recently, various high-level KMT officials, including former president Ma Ying-Jeoh, have traveled to the mainland. Ma’s visit marks the first time a president of Taiwan has visited the mainland since the end of the civil war in 1949.

Thompson Chau, Nikkei Asia (April 21, 2023): Taiwan opposition frames election as choice of ‘war or peace’

Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024

Indonesia is due to hold general elections in February 2024, but the Central Jakarta District Court issued a surprise ruling that would delay the elections to 2025 at the earliest. The ruling was made in response to a complaint from PRIMA, a new political party, which contested the election commission’s decision not to allow it to compete in the 2024 elections. 

In Indonesia’s April 2019 elections – the biggest single day of voting in the history of the world – Joko Widodo (Jokowi), widely seen as a reformer, was re-elected, defeating challenger Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo initially refused to accept the results, and rioting subsequently ensued. Prabowo ultimately did accept the results, but tensions remain, particularly regarding the role of religion in politics

As researcher Evan A. Laksmana notes: “Indonesia could tilt the strategic balance in the Indo-Pacific. It’s the largest archipelagic state in the world and sits at the heart of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The country’s growing economic power, tradition of regional leadership, and control over critical sea lanes seem to predestine it to be a strategic fulcrum in the era of U.S.-Chinese great-power competition.” However, Indonesia has not yet taken a side, instead maintaining “pragmatic equidistance” between the U.S. and China.

Reuters (April 21, 2023): Factbox: Who is running for president in Indonesia’s 2024 election?

Chris Barrett and Karuni Rompies, Sydney Morning Herald (April 21, 2023): After World Cup yellow card, Indonesian governor wins key backing for president

Faris Mokhtar and Chandra Asmara, Bloomberg (April 21, 2023): Ganjar Pranowo Is Indonesia Ruling Party’s Presidential Pick

Sri Lanka Local Elections: Postponed indefinitely

Sri Lanka had planned to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. However, the government called them off. A court subsequently ordered that they be held, and the election commission has announced the they will take place on April 25. 

The protests last year led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.

Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.

The Diplomat (April 21, 2023): Where Does Sri Lanka’s Protest Movement Go From Here?

PTI (April 19, 2023): Sri Lanka’s local body polls formally postponed indefinitely due to non-availability of funds

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Bhutan Upper House Elections: April 20, 2023

Bhutan is due to hold several sets of elections in 2023. Bhutan is a constitutional monarchy that has been implementing democratic reforms over the past decade.

Kuensel (April 19, 2023): Nation gears for fourth NC Poll Day

Laos Parliamentary Elections: February 21, 2021

Laos held parliamentary elections and provincial on February 21, 2021. Laos is a one-party communist state. Democracy activists and dissidents face arrest and forced disappearances. Moreover, there is no organized opposition in the country. Therefore, elections are neither free nor fair, and do not offer voters any real choices. 

Joshua Kurlantzick, Council on Foreign Relations (April 14, 2023): Unprecedented Protests Are Putting Laos in Uncharted Waters

Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023

Japan, Unified Local Elections, Second Stage: April 23, 2023

New Zealand, Niue General Elections: April 29, 2023

India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 10, 2023

Thailand General Elections: May 14, 2023

Timor-Leste Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)

Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023

Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)

Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023

Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)

Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)

New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023

Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023

Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)

Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)

Hong Kong District Council Elections: November 2023 (due)

Australia Indigenous Voice Referendum: Between October and December 2023 (due)

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)

Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)

India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023

Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Eurasia This Week: April 20, 2023

Eurasia Elections Weekly News Review: April 20, 2023 - 21votes

April 20, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Ruins of the Kirk-Kiz Fortress in Termez, Uzbekistan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/TwoWings (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040. 

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.

Bruce Pannier, bne IntelliNews (April 13, 2023): Uzbekistan’s new constitution may be worth the paper it’s written on

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.

The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior  to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.

Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.

On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.

Ryan Gallagher, Bloomberg (April 20, 2023): Cyberwar Descends on an Unprepared Moldova

Reuters (April 17, 2023): Moldova tells Moscow not to meddle after barring Russian governor from entry

AP (April 14, 2023): Moldovan oligarch sentenced to 15 years in $1B bank theft

Past Eurasia Elections

Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023

In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes. 

The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform. 

Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

RFE/RL (April 14, 2023): Another Former Parliamentary Candidate Detained In Kazakhstan Amid Crackdown

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 26, 2023

Turkmenistan – a highly repressive state that has never held free or fair elections and lacks a genuine political opposition – held a presidential election on March 12, 2022, nearly two yers early. The reason appears to be to cement dynastic succession, as the son of current president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, ran and won in a landslide. Similarly, the ruling party won the 2023 parliamentary elections as well.

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (April 18, 2023): How Farid Tuhbatullin Tells Turkmenistan’s Story

Regional Analysis

Stephen McGrath, AP (April 13, 2023): Ukraine, Romania, Moldova boost ties at security meeting

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023

Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Europe This Week: April 19, 2023

Europe Elections Weekly News Review: April 19, 2023 -21votes

April 19, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The city of Saranda, in the south of Albania. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Gary Bembridge (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Europe Elections

Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023

Tirana Times (April 19, 2023): What do Albania’s upcoming municipal elections mean for foreign investors?

Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Greece has set parliamentary elections for May 21, 2023, a week after Turkey goes to the polls. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents and a train crash that killed dozens of people.

Christina Georgaki, CapX (April 19, 2023): Progress or regression: Greeks face a momentous choice at the upcoming election

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023

LETA (April 19, 2023): Latvia’s Egils Levits decides to run for presidency again

Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023 (following presidential elections in March and April 2023)

In Montenegro’s recent presidential election, incumbent Milo Djukanovic, who has been president or PM for 33 years, lost to former economy minister Jakov Milatovic. Next up, the country holds snap parliamentary elections in June.

The last elections, the fifth since independence from Serbia in 2006, took place in August 2020. Although the pro-Western Democratic Party of Socialists, which has been in power for 30 years, won the most seats, they did not win a majority, and a coalition of opposition parties united to form a government, but that proved short-lived. Several other governments have risen and fallen, and the political situation remains unstable.

Chris Massaro, Fox News (April 19, 2023): Russian influence peddling adds to fears after election of untested president in European nation

Dmitry Goryachkin, Meduza (April 14, 2023): The president from nowhere: How a 36-year-old with no plans to run for office defeated Montenegro’s long-serving leader for the presidency

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)

Adam Parsons, Sky News (April 17, 2023): Poland’s ban on Ukrainian grain boils down to opinion polls and looming election

Raphael Minder, Barbara Erling, Andy Bounds, and Marton Dunai, Financial Times (April 16, 2023): Poland and Hungary defy Brussels to halt Ukraine grain imports

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Jeremy Cliffe, The New Statesman (April 19, 2023): Spain’s left coalition defied expectations. Can its leader, Pedro Sánchez, win again?

Paula Andrés, Euractiv (April 18, 2023): Water politics: How Spain’s drought became a battle ground for rural votes

European Parliament Elections: May or June 2024 (due)

Suzanne Lynch and Hans von der Burchard, Politico (April 19, 2023): Will Ursula von der Leyen run again? Germany hopes so

Past Europe Elections

Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)

Bulgaria held its fifth election in two years, but the results could continue the ongoing political stalemate.

Sofia Globe (April 18, 2023): Bulgaria’s two major coalitions agree deal on Speaker, legislative programme

Italy Snap Elections: September 25, 2022

Lee Hockstader, Washington Post (April 17, 2023): Italy’s Giorgia Meloni has surprised her critics

Niccolò Barca and Tommaso Grossi, The Nation (April 17, 2023): Can Elly Schlein Pull Italy to the Left?

Ireland General Elections: February 8, 2020

Morwenna Coniam, Bloomberg (April 18, 2023): How Sinn Fein’s Rise Is Shaking Up Ireland’s Politics

Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023

Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.

In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.

Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.

Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023

Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023

Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023

Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023

United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023

Greece Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2023

Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023

Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 31, 2023

Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Montenegro Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 11, 2023

Luxembourg Local Elections: June 11, 2023

Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023

Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023

Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)

Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 8, 2023

Luxembourg General Elections: October 8, 2023

Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023

Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)

Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)

Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023

Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)

Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023

Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

 

Middle East This Week: April 18, 2023

Middle East Elections Weekly News Review: April 18, 2023 - 21votes

April 18, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Beirut City Hall in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Elie plus (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Ongoing Middle East Elections

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing and Local Elections: Postponed to May 2024

Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament). 

The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats. 

The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate. 

As a result of not having a president, Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government is operating in a caretaker capacity, and it is exacerbating Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, with the currency hitting new record lows.

Kareem Chehayeb, AP (April 18, 2023): Lebanon’s parliament votes to extend local officials’ terms

Reuters (April 18, 2023): Lebanon Postpones Local Elections by a Year to Avoid More Paralysis

Beatrice Farhat, Al-Monitor (April 13, 2023): Lebanon dysfunction hits new peak on 48th anniversary of war

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.

Turkey’s opposition made the decision to field a single candidate against Erdoğan in this year’s election. The government barred Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu from running, so the opposition candidate will be Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP). While AKP has its roots in political Islam, CHP is staunchly secularist, having been founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. 

In addition, two other candidates are running: Muharrem Ince, who was CHP’s candidate in the last elections, and Sinan Oğan, a former MP from the nationalist MHP. Ince has been described as a spoiler. Following his defeat in the CHP leadership contest, he formed a new party called Memleket (which means Homeland). He is known or his combative style, in contrast to the more mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu.

While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.

The campaign is taking place in the context of the aftermath of an earthquake that ravaged the Turkey-Syria borer on February 6, striking Gaziantep province and killing more than 30,000 people and injuring tens of thousands. 

Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (April 17, 2023): 2023’s most important election: Turkey

Hamdi Firat Buyuk, Balkan Insight (April 13, 2023): Turkey Accused of ‘Persecuting’ Critical Media Ahead of Key Elections

Nazlan Ertan, Al-Monitor (April 12, 2023): Will Turkey’s top court disband pro-Kurdish party ahead of May elections?

BBC (April 11, 2023): Turkish elections: Erdogan kicks off race to hold on to power

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab: May 14, 2023, followed by General Elections: October 12, 2023 (early elections possible)

Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister. Since then, Khan has sought to force earlier elections as his popularity continues to rise in opinion polls.

This is all taking place in the context of an economic crisis, with soaring prices and rolling blackouts. As a result, the government risks losing the next elections. But delaying the election also creates challenges, given how angry voters are. 

Arif Rafiq observes: “There is little appetite to live in a country where upward mobility and political rights are denied by the civilian-military elite. Many Pakistanis are now voting with their feet. Over 800,000 Pakistanis left the country to work abroad last year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. According to a Gallup Pakistan survey, over fifty percent of Pakistanis with a university degree would like to leave the country.”

PTI (April 19, 2023): Pakistan authorities urge apex court to reconsider its order on elections in Punjab on May 14 due to security issues

Kuwait Snap Parliamentary Elections: Forthcoming

Although the monarchy appoints the government, Kuwait has one of the most powerful parliaments in the Gulf.

AP notes: “In September, voters sent conservative Islamist figures and two women to the assembly in the second election in less than two years. The election results were seen as a mandate for change amid a prolonged period of gridlock between the Cabinet and the 50-member assembly.”

Reuters (April 17, 2023): Kuwait crown prince says reinstated parliament to be dissolved, elections held

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Iraq has set regional council elections for November 6, the first in a decade, in all of the provinces except for Kurdistan, which is autonomous. The councils have significant budgetary powers under Iraq’s 2005 constitution, which created a federal system.

Iraq held early elections on in October 2021  as a result of the pro-democracy protests that began in 2019. The elections took place in the context of widespread protest and political instability, with various politicians boycotting.

AP (April 14, 2023): Populist Iraqi Cleric Announces Suspension of His Movement

Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023

Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.

Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in April 2023

Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023

Pakistan, Provincial Elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: May 14, 2023

Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)

Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)

Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)

United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)

Iraq Regional Elections: November 6, 2023

Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: November 18, 2023

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.

Africa This Week: April 17, 2023

Africa Elections Weekly News Review: April 17, 2023 - 21votes

April 17, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Congo River at Maluku, a municipality in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Photo credit: WikimediaVberger (public domain)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Central African Republic Local Elections: July 16, 2023 (delays likely)

The Central African Republic (CAR) had planned to hold local elections in September 2022, but they have been delayed. If held, these will be the first local elections since 1988, and they follow presidential and partial legislative elections that took place on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.

These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governanceSectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights.

RFI (July 14, 2023 – in French): Central African Republic: New uncertainties on the holding of the local elections

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023

Liberia’s last elections, in 2017, brought the first peaceful transition of power since 1944, but the country still faces some challenges as it seeks to consolidate democracy. President George Weah, a former football player, won the last presidential election in 2017 and plans to run for another term.

Katarina Hoije and Festus Poquie, Bloomberg (April 18, 2023): Liberia Opposition Banks on Soaring Food Prices to Unseat Weah

Robtel Neajai Bailey and Oscar Bloh, African Arguments (April 15, 2023): Is Liberia heading towards an electoral crisis?

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023

The DRC’s last elections, in December 2018, took place after multiple delays and were mired in controversy and dispute. Nonetheless, they did produce the first peaceful transfer of power in the history of the country’s independence, with former opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi being declared the winner of the presidential poll (even though election observers from the highly-trusted Catholic Church said their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu). 

The DRC faces numbers political and security crises, exacerbated by conflicts over massive mineral wealth. By some estimates, the country has untapped reserves worth $24 trillion, and with increased interest in electronic vehicles and other technologies that require rare earths, this has become a subject of increased interest internationally. 

Due to its size and central location, conflicts from neighboring countries spill over into the DRC. The horrific conflicts happening in the eastern part of the country send shockwaves through the entire region.

Patrick Ilunga, The East African (April 16, 2023): DR Congo’s countdown to election day a hot potato

AFP (April 14, 2023): DR Congo Election Candidates Launch Joint Campaign Ahead Of Vote

Teresa Nogueira Pinto, GIS (April 12, 2023): Is the Third Congo War approaching?

Cote d’Ivoire Local Elections: 2023 (proposed), followed by General Elections: 2025

Côte d’Ivoire’s president has proposed holding local elections early, in 2023. The country just completed a major election cycle that began in turbulent fashion when incumbent president Alasanne Ouattara sought and won a controversial third term. The opposition boycotted the presidential election. Protests followed, as well as arrests of opposition members.

However, during the 2021 parliamentary elections, the situation calmed down a bit. Following discussions and the release of some opposition figures, the opposition participated in the legislative elections. 

Former president Laurent Gbagbo casts a long shadow over Cote d’Ivoire politics. He had been tried by the International Criminal Court following violence surrounding his refusal to accept his loss of the 2010 election. Gbagbo was ultimately acquitted, but an appeal against the acquittal kept him in Belgium until this year. He has now returned home.

Côte d’Ivoire is one of the largest economies in West Africa. It is the world’s biggest producer of cocoa and cashew nuts, and a net exporter of oil. However, since 1999, political struggles and two civil wars have created instability, and the political climate remains tense.

Sadia Mandjo, France24 (April 12, 2023): Ivory Coast: Are personal freedoms on the decline ahead of local elections?

Senegal Presidential Election: February 2024 (due)

Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020). 

Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production.

Africanews and AFP (April 17, 2023): Opponents form coalition in Senegal against Macky Sall’s of third term

South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)

South Africa’s ANC has won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but it had its worst result ever in 2019, winning less than 60 percent of the vote. While South Africa is a vibrant democracy, Freedom House notes: “…in recent years, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been accused of undermining state institutions to protect corrupt officials and preserve its power as its support base has begun to wane.” 

Corruption remains an issue. Moreover, power cuts have been bad lately, with people experiencing up to 12 hours a day without electricity, prompting President Cyril Ramaphosa to declare a national disaster.

Geopolitically, South Africa has strong ties to Russia and China as a member of the BRICS. The three countries are hosting a joint naval exercise, much to the consternation of Europe and the United States.

Bloomberg (April 18, 2023): Independents can now run in South Africa’s elections

Sudan General Elections: 2025 (proposed)

Mersiha Gadzo and Usaid Siddiqui, Al Jazeera (April 17, 2023): Latest Sudan updates: More than 180 people killed, UN envoy says

Mike Cohen and Simon Marks, Bloomberg (April 17, 2023): These Are the Key Foreign Power Brokers in the Sudan Conflict

Reuters (April 16, 2023): Sudan’s army pounds paramilitary bases with air strikes in power struggle

Bloomberg (April 16, 2023): Here’s What’s Behind the Fighting in Sudan and What It Means

Republic of the Congo Presidential Election: March 2026 (due)

The Republic of the Congo holds its next presidential election in 2026. Denis Sassou Nguesso, who has been president almost continuously since 1979 and rules with an iron fist, was most recently re-elected in 2021. Elections have not been free or fair.

AFP (April 14, 2023): Congo parties form alliance for next election: The “Alliance for Democratic Change in 2026,” unveiled on Thursday, brings together three parties that have grassroots support but no legislative seats

Past Africa Elections

Nigeria Local and Gubernatorial Elections: March 18, 2023 (postponed from March 11, and following general elections on February 25)

Nigeria held general elections on February 25. Bola Tinuba from the governing “sort of left” All Progressives Congress Party (APC) won the presidency, defeating Atiku Abubakar from the main opposition “sort of right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi from the Labour Party, as well as a number of other candidates (incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was term-limited and unable to run for re-election). However, both Obi and Atiku are challenging the results.

In past years, PDP and APC got the vast majority of the vote share in presidential elections, but Obi won 25 percent, and won a majority in Lagos, Nigeria’s state.

In the gubernatorial elections, which took place a week late (election delays at short notice are not infrequent in Nigeria), PDP and APC remained dominant. Although Obi’s supporters had hoped to win in Lagos, the incumbent APC governor won re-election.

Chris Kwaja, U.S. Institute of Peace (April 13, 2023): After Nigeria’s Elections: Nurturing the Seeds of Better Democracy: A presidential vote that deepened mistrust also signals Nigerians’ insistence on change.

Ope Adetayo, Al Jazeera (April 13, 2023): Obi voters in Nigeria cry fraud, struggle to keep hope alive

Reuters (April 11, 2023): Nigeria’s ruling party seeks dismissal of Obi’s election challenge

Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022

Reuters (April 16, 2023): Kenya’s President Ruto asks opposition to give talks a chance

Evelyne Musambi, AP (April 13, 2023): Kenya opposition to resume anti-government protests

Abdirashid Diriye Kalmoy, Modern Diplomacy (April 10, 2023): The Politics of Maandamano: Understanding Kenya’s Cost of Living Demonstrations

Africa Elections Coming Up in 2023

Seven countries in Africa are scheduled to elections that will determine who heads the government: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

In addition, Sudan has talked about holding long-delays general elections in July, but additional delays are possible. 

Mauritania Legislative and Local Elections: May 13, 2023

Gambia Local Elections: May 13, 2023

Mauritania Legislative and Local Runoffs: May 18, 2023

Guinea-Bissau Snap Legislative Elections: June 4, 2023

Sierra Leone Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 24, 2023

Mali Local Elections: June 2023 (due – delays possible)

Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)

Sudan General Elections: July 2023 (tentative – delays possible)

Gabon Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)

Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)

Gabon Legislative Elections: September 2023 (due)

Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023

Mozambique Local Elections: October 11, 2023

Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Imo State, Kogi State, and Bayelsa State: November 11, 2023

Madagascar Presidential Election: October 2023 (due)

Mali Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due – delays possible)

Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023

Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)

Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections (due in 2023)

Comoros Gubernatorial Elections (due in 2023)

Ghana Local Elections (due in 2023)

Guinea-Bissau Local Elections (due in 2023)

Guinea Local Elections (due in 2023 – delays possible to to coup situation)

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