April 20, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Ruins of the Kirk-Kiz Fortress in Termez, Uzbekistan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/TwoWings (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Uzbekistan is holding a referendum on April 30 to change the constitution to allow President Shavkat Mirziyoev to remain in office until 2040. 

Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest (although forced labor is reportedly still going on) and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy. As a result, the “no” campaign in the referendum is basically nonexistent.

Bruce Pannier, bne IntelliNews (April 13, 2023): Uzbekistan’s new constitution may be worth the paper it’s written on

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.

The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior  to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.

Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.

Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.

On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.

Ryan Gallagher, Bloomberg (April 20, 2023): Cyberwar Descends on an Unprepared Moldova

Reuters (April 17, 2023): Moldova tells Moscow not to meddle after barring Russian governor from entry

AP (April 14, 2023): Moldovan oligarch sentenced to 15 years in $1B bank theft

Past Eurasia Elections

Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023

In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes. 

The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform. 

Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

RFE/RL (April 14, 2023): Another Former Parliamentary Candidate Detained In Kazakhstan Amid Crackdown

Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 26, 2023

Turkmenistan – a highly repressive state that has never held free or fair elections and lacks a genuine political opposition – held a presidential election on March 12, 2022, nearly two yers early. The reason appears to be to cement dynastic succession, as the son of current president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, ran and won in a landslide. Similarly, the ruling party won the 2023 parliamentary elections as well.

Catherine Putz, The Diplomat (April 18, 2023): How Farid Tuhbatullin Tells Turkmenistan’s Story

Regional Analysis

Stephen McGrath, AP (April 13, 2023): Ukraine, Romania, Moldova boost ties at security meeting

Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023

Uzbekistan Constitutional Referendum: April 30, 2023

Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023

Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)

Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)

Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)

Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)

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