Americas This Week – September 21, 2019

September 21, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Guyana’s election commission has suggested holding the snap polls along with regional elections in March 2020, but the opposition is insisting on elections before the end of the year.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Brazil Municipal - October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

Upcoming Elections
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Committee to Protect Journalists: “Bolivian court restricts publication of poll showing tight re-election race for President Morales”

John Otis, NPR: “Bolivia Is Fighting Major Forest Fires Nearly As Large As In Brazil”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the center-right Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.

Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Canada’s Liberal Party lost a little ground to rival Conservatives after bombshell images of Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in blackface emerged this week, according to two polls published on Saturday.”

Lauren Gardner and Alexandra Panetta, Politico: “Canada decides: Trudeau faces heat over handling of China and trade war”

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Stratfor: “In Argentina, an Economic Crisis Portends Political Chaos

Anne O. Krueger, Project Syndicate: “Argentina Needs Intensive Care: Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri knew that he had inherited a sick economy when he took office in 2015, but failed to take his medicine. As a result, the country now has no choice but to face up to a period of painful structural adjustment.”

AFP-JIJI: “Former Argentine President Cristina Fernandez is to stand trial for a fourth time on corruption charges, even as the leftist opposition leader vies for the position of vice president in elections next month. The 66-year-old, who served two terms as president, is accused of having taken $160 million in bribes for steering public works contracts towards favored businessmen close to her and her late husband, Nestor Kirchner, who served as president before her.”

Demian Bio, Americas Quarterly: “The Gen. Z Voices Shaping Argentina’s Election: Social media savvy and outspoken, Argentina’s youngest voters are making Peronism cool again.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered.

Reuters: “Colombia will increase protection for political candidates running in October’s local and regional elections after the murders of seven aspirants, President Ivan Duque said on Monday. The killings have sparked renewed calls for more to be done to prevent political violence in the country, where hundreds of community leaders and human rights activists have also been murdered.”

Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 741,000

Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil.

In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Guyana’s election commission has suggested holding the snap polls along with regional elections in March 2020, but the opposition is insisting on elections before the end of the year.

Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese. 

Reuters: “U.S. and European diplomats on Thursday declared Guyana’s government in breach of the country’s constitution until new elections are held and called on Guyanese President David Granger to ‘set an elections date immediately’ or possibly face a cutoff of development funding. Guyana’s independent electoral body on Thursday advised Granger that it would be ready to hold elections in February, about the time offshore wells are expected to begin producing oil that promises to transform the country’s economy.”

David Blackmon, Forbes: “Exxon Announces Another Big Find As Guyana Elections Approach”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Rachel Bunyan, Time: “25 Years After ‘Operation Uphold Democracy,’ Experts Say the Oft-Forgotten U.S. Military Intervention Still Shapes Life in Haiti”

Ruaridh Nicoll, The Guardian: “Ghosts of tyrants past stalk proud Haiti as it slides towards the brink: A nation that suffered under the Duvalier dictators is collapsing as corruption and a failing economy take their toll”

Brazil Municipal – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.

Bryan Harris, Financial Times: “Legacy of corruption fuels renewal movement in Brazil: RenovaBR wants to train ethical politicians but many are sceptical of its motives….Ahead of the municipal elections in October next year, RenovaBR said it received 31,000 applications for its training programme.

Venezuela Legislative – December 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 31.7 million

Venezuela is currently in a political crisis following disputed presidential elections in May 2018. Incumbent Nicolás Maduro, Hugo Chávez’s protege, was declared the winner, but the elections were widely denounced as illegitimate and the opposition mostly boycotted the polls. Because Venezuela’s constitution stipulates that the leader of the National Assembly (Venezuela’s only institution with a modicum of democratic legitimacy) becomes interim president if the office is vacant, many of the world’s free democracies recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president until the country holds new elections. Maduro continues to cling to power and his forces are violently cracking down on the opposition. The regime has deployed death squads. However, the opposition perseveres. National Assembly elections are not due until December 2020, but Maduro has threatened to hold early elections, which would likely be neither free nor fair and would deprive the opposition of the one institution it controls.

The country is also in a humanitarian crisis. The capital, Caracas, is one of the most violent cities in the world. Hyperinflation has resulted in 90 percent of Venezuelans being unable to afford sufficient food, and as many as 3.4 million people (more than 10 percent of the population) have fled since 2015.

Corina Pons and Mayela Armas, Reuters: “Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro did not inform Norway’s foreign ministry, which is mediating a dialogue between his government and opposition leader Juan Guaido, about a side deal with a smaller sector of the opposition before it was announced earlier this week, a member of Guaido’s negotiating team said on Wednesday.”

The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year);  Haiti parliamentary (due October – delays likely); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (October 21); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25). Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)

Justin Trudeau campaigns in 2015. Photo credit: Flickr/Alex Guibord (CC BY-ND 2.0)

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