Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Stratfor: “Mozambique: Dissident Renamo Faction Threatens Attacks If Government Proceeds With Oct. 15 Election”
Gary van Staden, CNBC Africa: “Mozambique’s elections – due in less than a month – will go ahead as planned despite threats by a splinter group of Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) fighters who have defied the party leadership and vowed to step up its violence unless campaigning for the upcoming polls is suspended. There are no plans on the part of the government to suspend campaigning or delay the vote.
Brian M. Perkins, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor: “Insurgent Violence and Growing Russian Involvement: The Tense Elections in Mozambique”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Nthakoana Ngatane, Eyewitness News (South Africa): “The Botswana high court has accepted four nominations for presidential candidates who will contest in next months elections.”
Poloko Tau, News24 (South Africa): “The proverb “blood is thicker than water” could be in for a tough test with two politicians who are the sons of Botswana’s first president, Seretse Khama, approaching elections from opposite political sides. This happens as Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – co-founded by Khama 58 years ago and at the helm of the Botswana government for 53 years – hangs in the balance amid the strong political opposition it faces.”
Tiseke Kasambala, The Daily Maverick: “With elections looming in Botswana and Mozambique, SADC watchdog must grow some teeth: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) — charged with promoting election integrity, strengthening democracy and advancing human rights — is failing. The latest evidence comes from Malawi. The next tests will come in Mozambique and Botswana where elections are due to be held in October 2019.”
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Russell Kondowe, Malawi24: “The Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has said it will hold a by-election in Lilongwe South Constituency on 5th November, 2019.”
AFP: “Thousands of people gathered in three cities in Malawi on Wednesday [September 18] to call for the sacking of the head of the electoral commission, as protests continue over May’s presidential election result. The demonstrations came two days after the expiry of a 14-day ban on protests ordered by the Supreme Court in a bid to allow mediation between the government and protest leaders.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Allan Kisia, The Star (Kenya): “Kibra by-election: Will tribal arithmetic work this time? Many Kenyans still vote along ethnic lines and don’t vote on issues, and voters in Kibra may not be any different.”
Narrelle Gilchrist, Lawfare: “Succession Politics and the Renewed Threat of Ethnic Violence in Kenya: Recent rifts in the Jubilee Party, Kenya’s ruling political coalition, threaten to return the country to ethnic conflict akin to the 2007 postelection crisis that left more than 1,000 people dead.”
Felix Olick, The Star (Kenya): “Kenya’s presidential system is ‘an ugly beast’ that the country should urgently get rid of, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o has said. Professor Nyong’o, a towering academic and a close ally of Opposition chief Raila Odinga, has made a passionate case for a parliamentary system which he says is the ‘the most practical solution to Kenya’s election anxiety.’”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): ” Opposition parties plan to use the coming civic elections to test new strategies they designed in the last three years ahead the General Election next year. This was revealed to The Citizen by leaders of opposition parties in different occasions as most of them decried what they described as hostile political environment to which they have been subjected since the last General Election.”
Daily Maverick (South Africa): “Tanzania continues to stifle civil society and critical views as it heads towards general elections in 2020, with a slew of new legislation aimed at curbing the NGO sector and freedom of speech.”
Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Subverting Democracy in Tanzania and Zambia: Tanzania and Zambia’s slide toward authoritarianism reveals the weaknesses of existing checks and balances and undermines their reputation as models of democratic development.”
Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s politics are turbulent and corruption remains a major problem. In 2009, the country had a coup. Andry Rajoelina, then the 34-year-old populist mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, declared he was in charge and ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana. While Ravalomanana’s tenure in office was marked by economic growth, the economy slumped under Rajoelina. Elections were restored in 2013. Both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina agreed not to run (although both mulled going back on this promise), and Rajoelina’s candidate, former finance minister Hery Rajaonarimampianina, won.
Madagascar’s most recent presidential election was in late 2018, and an initial crowd of 36 candidates included four former presidents and three former prime ministers. In the runoff, Ravalomanana faced off against Rajoelina, with Rajoelina winning (Rajaonarimampianina, finished third in the first round and thus did not make the runoff). Ravalomanana had promised to accept the result, but he contested it, and protests followed. Rajoelina’s coalition won a majority in the May 2019 parliamentary elections, but the opposition alleged fraud.
For the mayor of Antananarivo, Naina Andriantsitohaina, who recently stepped down as foreign minister, is Rajoelina’s candidate and will face off against opposition candidate Randriamasinoro Tahiry Ny Rina, secretary general of the capital’s urban community. Former president Marc Ravalomanana declined to enter the race, surprising many.
Africa Intelligence: “Two political novices to run for mayor of capital”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Journal du Cameroun: “Cameroon: Seven million voters registered ahead of upcoming elections, Elecam says”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Cameroon’s law courts are at a standstill as lawyers for a third day Wednesday defy government threats and continue to protest what they say are widespread unbearable rights violations that include torture, illegal and prolonged detention of accused persons. Observers say the strike may compromise the national dialogue ordered by President Paul Biya to solve the separatist conflict rocking the country.”
BBC (video): “Conflict in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions has forced hundreds of thousands to abandon their homes in search of safety. Felicia, not her real name, explains why she fled her home with her children, leaving her husband to guard the house.”
Mauritius Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Leighton G. Luke, Future Directions International: “Continuing the Mauritian tradition of shifting and unlikely coalitions, the leaders of two opposition parties are reportedly close to announcing an alliance that will see their parties work together to unseat the ruling Alliance Lepep coalition at the next general election, which could be held before the end of 2019.”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government says elections will be held by a September deadline, but the opposition and political analysts are skeptical.
Moussa Nguedmbaye, Tchad Infos: “Will the legislative and local elections be held at the end of this year?”
AFP: “Parliamentary vote for Chad still murky as deadline looms”
RFI: “On Saturday, the opposition’s general coordination complained of ‘interference’ in the affairs of the Electoral Commission (CENI) and threatened to suspend its participation in the electoral process if Idriss Deby continued in power.”
François-Xavier Freland, The Africa Report: “Chad’s President Idriss Déby Itno has made security the priority of his fifth mandate. But critics say his main motivation is to strengthen his own powers.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Salem Solomon, Abdourahmane Dia, James Butty, VOA: “Guinean President Visits US, Faces Term Limit Questions”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner, The Africa Report (interview): “Côte d’Ivoire: Bédié as president ‘would be a revenge’: A year before Côte d’Ivoire 2020 elections, Henri Konan Bédié has his alliances in place and would relish another turn as President of the Republic.”
AP: “International Criminal Court prosecutors have appealed against the acquittal of former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo and a youth minister on charges of involvement in deadly post-election violence. Judges acquitted Gbagbo and Charles Ble Goude in January after ruling that prosecutors ‘failed to satisfy the burden of proof’ in their presentation of evidence.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
APA: “The European Union has advised the Ghanaian government to consider broader consultation in appointing the Chairman of the Electoral Commission and other top officials as a way of deepening the democratic dispensation in the West African country, APA learnt here on Saturday.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Wassim Nasr, France24 (video): “The August 20 attack on a military post in the north-eastern village of Koutougou killed 24 soldiers. By claiming responsibility for this attack, IS group has demonstrated its capacity to strike in areas where al Qaeda tends to be active.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Edward Lucas, The Times (London): “Western neglect gives Russia free rein in Africa: The Kremlin is making money and mischief in the continent while Europe and America dither.”
South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
The country has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
The Economist: “South Sudan’s war has cooled. But a new peace deal contains lots of danger….The idea is that by November a government will be formed, with Mr Machar back at his post. It could then begin to organise South Sudan’s first elections as an independent state. Those were supposed to take place in 2015, but have been put off every year, and are now scheduled for 2021. Mr Machar thinks that he may be able to win an election.”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Hassan Mohamed, The Star (Kenya): “Somalia opposition cry foul ahead of Galmudug State election: The Galmudug State presidential election is shaping up to be a two horse race”
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Somalia’s federal regions face further uncertainty after President Mohamed Farmaajo reignited a row with his predecessor Hassan Sheikh Mohamud over the future of Galmudug state. Fresh from taking opposing sides in the Jubbaland elections which Mogadishu refuses to recognise, the two clashed last week over whether the federal government should control impending elections in Galmudug, one of the five federal states in Somalia.”
Harun Maruf, VOA: “At least 20 Somali government soldiers were killed and 18 others were wounded when al-Shabab raided a military base south of Mogadishu, security sources told VOA Somali. The sources said militants detonated a suicide car bomb at the El-Salin military base followed by an infantry attack in the early hours of Sunday [September 22].”
Michael Rubin, Washington Examiner: “10 topics the Somali president should address when he visits the US”
Lesotho General – due 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 2 million
Antony Sguazzin and Mathabiso Ralengau, Bloomberg Quint: “How a Foreign Investor Rattled a Tiny African Kingdom’s Economy….With Lesotho’s ruling party split, and a possible no-confidence motion against the prime minister likely to trigger an election in the near future, politicians fear a backlash from farmers. In June, thousands who said they hadn’t been paid for their sheep and goat wool staged an unprecedented march on Parliament.”
Past Elections
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Dawie Scholtz, News24 (South Africa): “Dawie Scholtz: SA is realigning politically and these by-elections prove it: South Africa is in the process of a political realignment. The prevailing trend in this realignment is the growth of the extremes in our politics at the expense of our more centrist parties. The 2019 election was the first step in this direction. As previously documented, the results were driven by three separate, but related, trends.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
AFP: “Gambian President Adama Barrow said Thursday that the West African country is on the path of reconciliation, two-and-a-half years after his predecessor Yahya Jammeh went into exile facing allegations of torture.”
Ruth Maclean and Saikou Jammeh, The Guardian: “A movement, Three Years Jotna (Three Years is Enough), is calling on Barrow to step down as promised, with large protests expected in December. The government has bought a water cannon in preparation, to “pour hot water” on troublemakers.”
Africa This Week – September 23, 2019
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Last Updated: October 3, 2019 by 21votes
September 23, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South - November 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s politics are turbulent and corruption remains a major problem. In 2009, the country had a coup. Andry Rajoelina, then the 34-year-old populist mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, declared he was in charge and ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana. While Ravalomanana’s tenure in office was marked by economic growth, the economy slumped under Rajoelina. Elections were restored in 2013. Both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina agreed not to run (although both mulled going back on this promise), and Rajoelina’s candidate, former finance minister Hery Rajaonarimampianina, won.
Madagascar’s most recent presidential election was in late 2018, and an initial crowd of 36 candidates included four former presidents and three former prime ministers. In the runoff, Ravalomanana faced off against Rajoelina, with Rajoelina winning (Rajaonarimampianina, finished third in the first round and thus did not make the runoff). Ravalomanana had promised to accept the result, but he contested it, and protests followed. Rajoelina’s coalition won a majority in the May 2019 parliamentary elections, but the opposition alleged fraud.
For the mayor of Antananarivo, Naina Andriantsitohaina, who recently stepped down as foreign minister, is Rajoelina’s candidate and will face off against opposition candidate Randriamasinoro Tahiry Ny Rina, secretary general of the capital’s urban community. Former president Marc Ravalomanana declined to enter the race, surprising many.
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Mauritius Legislative - December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government says elections will be held by a September deadline, but the opposition and political analysts are skeptical.
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Salem Solomon, Abdourahmane Dia, James Butty, VOA: “Guinean President Visits US, Faces Term Limit Questions”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
The country has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Lesotho General - due 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 2 million
Antony Sguazzin and Mathabiso Ralengau, Bloomberg Quint: “How a Foreign Investor Rattled a Tiny African Kingdom’s Economy….With Lesotho’s ruling party split, and a possible no-confidence motion against the prime minister likely to trigger an election in the near future, politicians fear a backlash from farmers. In June, thousands who said they hadn’t been paid for their sheep and goat wool staged an unprecedented march on Parliament.”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Dawie Scholtz, News24 (South Africa): “Dawie Scholtz: SA is realigning politically and these by-elections prove it: South Africa is in the process of a political realignment. The prevailing trend in this realignment is the growth of the extremes in our politics at the expense of our more centrist parties. The 2019 election was the first step in this direction. As previously documented, the results were driven by three separate, but related, trends.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016; and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
Upcoming Elections
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president. A breakaway faction of RENAMO has threatened violence if the elections proceed, but the government has no plans to delay or cancel the polls.
Stratfor: “Mozambique: Dissident Renamo Faction Threatens Attacks If Government Proceeds With Oct. 15 Election”
Gary van Staden, CNBC Africa: “Mozambique’s elections – due in less than a month – will go ahead as planned despite threats by a splinter group of Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) fighters who have defied the party leadership and vowed to step up its violence unless campaigning for the upcoming polls is suspended. There are no plans on the part of the government to suspend campaigning or delay the vote.
Brian M. Perkins, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor: “Insurgent Violence and Growing Russian Involvement: The Tense Elections in Mozambique”
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly will elect a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Nthakoana Ngatane, Eyewitness News (South Africa): “The Botswana high court has accepted four nominations for presidential candidates who will contest in next months elections.”
Poloko Tau, News24 (South Africa): “The proverb “blood is thicker than water” could be in for a tough test with two politicians who are the sons of Botswana’s first president, Seretse Khama, approaching elections from opposite political sides. This happens as Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – co-founded by Khama 58 years ago and at the helm of the Botswana government for 53 years – hangs in the balance amid the strong political opposition it faces.”
Tiseke Kasambala, The Daily Maverick: “With elections looming in Botswana and Mozambique, SADC watchdog must grow some teeth: The Southern African Development Community (SADC) — charged with promoting election integrity, strengthening democracy and advancing human rights — is failing. The latest evidence comes from Malawi. The next tests will come in Mozambique and Botswana where elections are due to be held in October 2019.”
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Russell Kondowe, Malawi24: “The Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) has said it will hold a by-election in Lilongwe South Constituency on 5th November, 2019.”
AFP: “Thousands of people gathered in three cities in Malawi on Wednesday [September 18] to call for the sacking of the head of the electoral commission, as protests continue over May’s presidential election result. The demonstrations came two days after the expiry of a 14-day ban on protests ordered by the Supreme Court in a bid to allow mediation between the government and protest leaders.”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Allan Kisia, The Star (Kenya): “Kibra by-election: Will tribal arithmetic work this time? Many Kenyans still vote along ethnic lines and don’t vote on issues, and voters in Kibra may not be any different.”
Narrelle Gilchrist, Lawfare: “Succession Politics and the Renewed Threat of Ethnic Violence in Kenya: Recent rifts in the Jubilee Party, Kenya’s ruling political coalition, threaten to return the country to ethnic conflict akin to the 2007 postelection crisis that left more than 1,000 people dead.”
Felix Olick, The Star (Kenya): “Kenya’s presidential system is ‘an ugly beast’ that the country should urgently get rid of, Kisumu Governor Anyang’ Nyong’o has said. Professor Nyong’o, a towering academic and a close ally of Opposition chief Raila Odinga, has made a passionate case for a parliamentary system which he says is the ‘the most practical solution to Kenya’s election anxiety.’”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
The Citizen (Tanzania): ” Opposition parties plan to use the coming civic elections to test new strategies they designed in the last three years ahead the General Election next year. This was revealed to The Citizen by leaders of opposition parties in different occasions as most of them decried what they described as hostile political environment to which they have been subjected since the last General Election.”
Daily Maverick (South Africa): “Tanzania continues to stifle civil society and critical views as it heads towards general elections in 2020, with a slew of new legislation aimed at curbing the NGO sector and freedom of speech.”
Africa Center for Strategic Studies: “Subverting Democracy in Tanzania and Zambia: Tanzania and Zambia’s slide toward authoritarianism reveals the weaknesses of existing checks and balances and undermines their reputation as models of democratic development.”
Madagascar Local – November 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 25.7 million
Madagascar’s politics are turbulent and corruption remains a major problem. In 2009, the country had a coup. Andry Rajoelina, then the 34-year-old populist mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, declared he was in charge and ousted then-president Marc Ravalomanana. While Ravalomanana’s tenure in office was marked by economic growth, the economy slumped under Rajoelina. Elections were restored in 2013. Both Ravalomanana and Rajoelina agreed not to run (although both mulled going back on this promise), and Rajoelina’s candidate, former finance minister Hery Rajaonarimampianina, won.
Madagascar’s most recent presidential election was in late 2018, and an initial crowd of 36 candidates included four former presidents and three former prime ministers. In the runoff, Ravalomanana faced off against Rajoelina, with Rajoelina winning (Rajaonarimampianina, finished third in the first round and thus did not make the runoff). Ravalomanana had promised to accept the result, but he contested it, and protests followed. Rajoelina’s coalition won a majority in the May 2019 parliamentary elections, but the opposition alleged fraud.
For the mayor of Antananarivo, Naina Andriantsitohaina, who recently stepped down as foreign minister, is Rajoelina’s candidate and will face off against opposition candidate Randriamasinoro Tahiry Ny Rina, secretary general of the capital’s urban community. Former president Marc Ravalomanana declined to enter the race, surprising many.
Africa Intelligence: “Two political novices to run for mayor of capital”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – Early 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 25.6 million
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections, which are likely delayed following a July vote by the National Assembly to extend its term in office (the National Assembly’s second extension). The mandates were set to expire October 29, 2019 and have been extended for two months, so the elections that had been due in October most likely will not happen before 2020.
Journal du Cameroun: “Cameroon: Seven million voters registered ahead of upcoming elections, Elecam says”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, VOA: “Cameroon’s law courts are at a standstill as lawyers for a third day Wednesday defy government threats and continue to protest what they say are widespread unbearable rights violations that include torture, illegal and prolonged detention of accused persons. Observers say the strike may compromise the national dialogue ordered by President Paul Biya to solve the separatist conflict rocking the country.”
BBC (video): “Conflict in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions has forced hundreds of thousands to abandon their homes in search of safety. Felicia, not her real name, explains why she fled her home with her children, leaving her husband to guard the house.”
Mauritius Legislative – December 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Leighton G. Luke, Future Directions International: “Continuing the Mauritian tradition of shifting and unlikely coalitions, the leaders of two opposition parties are reportedly close to announcing an alliance that will see their parties work together to unseat the ruling Alliance Lepep coalition at the next general election, which could be held before the end of 2019.”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government says elections will be held by a September deadline, but the opposition and political analysts are skeptical.
Moussa Nguedmbaye, Tchad Infos: “Will the legislative and local elections be held at the end of this year?”
AFP: “Parliamentary vote for Chad still murky as deadline looms”
RFI: “On Saturday, the opposition’s general coordination complained of ‘interference’ in the affairs of the Electoral Commission (CENI) and threatened to suspend its participation in the electoral process if Idriss Deby continued in power.”
François-Xavier Freland, The Africa Report: “Chad’s President Idriss Déby Itno has made security the priority of his fifth mandate. But critics say his main motivation is to strengthen his own powers.”
Guinea Legislative – 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader who came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule, is prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea). The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set.
Salem Solomon, Abdourahmane Dia, James Butty, VOA: “Guinean President Visits US, Faces Term Limit Questions”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner, The Africa Report (interview): “Côte d’Ivoire: Bédié as president ‘would be a revenge’: A year before Côte d’Ivoire 2020 elections, Henri Konan Bédié has his alliances in place and would relish another turn as President of the Republic.”
AP: “International Criminal Court prosecutors have appealed against the acquittal of former Ivory Coast president Laurent Gbagbo and a youth minister on charges of involvement in deadly post-election violence. Judges acquitted Gbagbo and Charles Ble Goude in January after ruling that prosecutors ‘failed to satisfy the burden of proof’ in their presentation of evidence.”
Ghana Presidential and Legislative – December 7, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 28.1 million
Ghana’s two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition, despite some lingering issues.
Although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues. In the 2016 presidential polls, NPP’s Nana Akufo-Addo defeated incumbent John Mahama from the NDC following a contentious campaign. Eleven parties competed in the parliamentary elections, but only the NPP and the NDC won seats, with the NPP winning a majority.
APA: “The European Union has advised the Ghanaian government to consider broader consultation in appointing the Chairman of the Electoral Commission and other top officials as a way of deepening the democratic dispensation in the West African country, APA learnt here on Saturday.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Wassim Nasr, France24 (video): “The August 20 attack on a military post in the north-eastern village of Koutougou killed 24 soldiers. By claiming responsibility for this attack, IS group has demonstrated its capacity to strike in areas where al Qaeda tends to be active.”
Central African Republic General – December 27, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 5.4 million
The Central African Republic (CAR) faces a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. The country has been gripped by sectarian clashes since 2013, when Seleka (“alliance” in Sango, a local language) Muslim insurgents forced President François Bozizé from office and installed Michel Djotodia, a Muslim and a northerner. Exact estimates of the country’s religious breakdown vary, but CAR is more than 80 percent Christian and animist and about 10-15 percent Muslim, and southern Christians had held the presidency since independence from France in 1960. A group of southern Christians formed anti-Balaka (“invincible” in Sango) and clashes have been taking place since then. A 2017 peace agreement between the government and all but one of the armed militias did little to stop the violence. Fighting continues despite a new agreement signed in February 2019 that gave government roles to some of the insurgent leaders. The government has extremely limited – if any – power outside Bangui, the capital.
Djotodia’s presidency lasted for less than a year. A UN-backed transitional government took over until the 2016 elections, which were generally regarded as credible despite some fraud, and which led to a peaceful transition of power. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a former prime minister and mathematics professor, won the presidential election in a runoff. His opponent, Anicet-Georges Dologuélé, also a former prime minister, conceded and urged his supporters to accept the results peacefully. Political parties are weak – a large chunk of the National Assembly are independents, as is Touadéra (although he had previously been a member of Bozizé’s National Convergence “Kwa Na Kwa” (KNK) party).
Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. Last year, three Russian journalists from a newspaper critical of the Kremlin were killed in the country while they were investigating the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor, in exploiting the CAR’s mineral wealth. A Russian national is Touadéra’s national security advisor, and the Wagner Group handles Touadéra’s personal security detail.
Edward Lucas, The Times (London): “Western neglect gives Russia free rein in Africa: The Kremlin is making money and mischief in the continent while Europe and America dither.”
South Sudan General – 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10.2 million
South Sudan has been struggling since independence in 2011, and has been in an ethnically-based civil war since 2013, when President Salva Kiir and his former vice president, Riek Machar, fell out. A peace deal in 2015 did not end the conflict. In 2018, Kiir and Machar signed another peace agreement, but the implementation has been marred by delays.
The country has not held elections since independence. Kiir had been president of the semi-autonomous region while it was still part of Sudan, and he remained in office following independence. The legislature’s mandate expired in 2015 (it had been elected in 2010, before independence), and has been extended several times. The latest extension goes through May 2022. Kiir and Machar are discussing the formation of a unity government until elections can be held.
The Economist: “South Sudan’s war has cooled. But a new peace deal contains lots of danger….The idea is that by November a government will be formed, with Mr Machar back at his post. It could then begin to organise South Sudan’s first elections as an independent state. Those were supposed to take place in 2015, but have been put off every year, and are now scheduled for 2021. Mr Machar thinks that he may be able to win an election.”
Somalia Parliamentary and Presidential – due 2020 or 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 11.3 million (very rough estimate)
Somalia hasn’t held direct elections in 50 years at the federal level, and at the state level, only the de facto independent Somaliland holds one-person-one-vote polls. The other states have electoral colleges with clan elders as electors. Somalia has federal elections due in 2020 or 2021, and hopes to move toward a one-person-one-vote model. Politics – and conflict – throughout Somalia is largely based on clans, but efforts have been made to move toward a politics based on political parties. The terrorist group al-Shabab remains a menace.
Galmudug State, in central Somalia, is set to hold an indirect presidential election soon.
Hassan Mohamed, The Star (Kenya): “Somalia opposition cry foul ahead of Galmudug State election: The Galmudug State presidential election is shaping up to be a two horse race”
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African: “Somalia’s federal regions face further uncertainty after President Mohamed Farmaajo reignited a row with his predecessor Hassan Sheikh Mohamud over the future of Galmudug state. Fresh from taking opposing sides in the Jubbaland elections which Mogadishu refuses to recognise, the two clashed last week over whether the federal government should control impending elections in Galmudug, one of the five federal states in Somalia.”
Harun Maruf, VOA: “At least 20 Somali government soldiers were killed and 18 others were wounded when al-Shabab raided a military base south of Mogadishu, security sources told VOA Somali. The sources said militants detonated a suicide car bomb at the El-Salin military base followed by an infantry attack in the early hours of Sunday [September 22].”
Michael Rubin, Washington Examiner: “10 topics the Somali president should address when he visits the US”
Lesotho General – due 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 2 million
Antony Sguazzin and Mathabiso Ralengau, Bloomberg Quint: “How a Foreign Investor Rattled a Tiny African Kingdom’s Economy….With Lesotho’s ruling party split, and a possible no-confidence motion against the prime minister likely to trigger an election in the near future, politicians fear a backlash from farmers. In June, thousands who said they hadn’t been paid for their sheep and goat wool staged an unprecedented march on Parliament.”
Past Elections
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Dawie Scholtz, News24 (South Africa): “Dawie Scholtz: SA is realigning politically and these by-elections prove it: South Africa is in the process of a political realignment. The prevailing trend in this realignment is the growth of the extremes in our politics at the expense of our more centrist parties. The 2019 election was the first step in this direction. As previously documented, the results were driven by three separate, but related, trends.”
The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016 and Legislative – April 6, 2017
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 2.1 million
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh – who had come to power in a coup and ruled for 22 years – peacefully, via the ballot box, in a surprising result. Opposition candidate Adama Barrow won the presidency with the backing of a coalition of seven opposition parties. The country then began the process of establishing democracy and recovering from Jammeh’s brutal dictatorship.
AFP: “Gambian President Adama Barrow said Thursday that the West African country is on the path of reconciliation, two-and-a-half years after his predecessor Yahya Jammeh went into exile facing allegations of torture.”
Ruth Maclean and Saikou Jammeh, The Guardian: “A movement, Three Years Jotna (Three Years is Enough), is calling on Barrow to step down as promised, with large protests expected in December. The government has bought a water cannon in preparation, to “pour hot water” on troublemakers.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Democratic Republic of the Congo local (scheduled for September 22 but have been delayed multiple times – further delays nearly certain); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Mauritius presidential and parliamentary (December); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20)
Madagascar communal (due October 28 but postponed – new date not set); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Campaign for Andry Rajoelina for president of Madagascar from October 2018. Rajoelina and his longtime rival Marc Ravalomanana face off again by proxies in the upcoming local elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/NTF30 (CC BY-SA 4.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania