Upcoming Africa Elections
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019 (Postponed)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Maravi Post: “Malawi electoral body postpones Lilongwe South By-Elections over political violence….Once the situation improves, the Commission will announce a new date for the polling.”
Lameck Masina, VOA: “The political impasse in Malawi stemming from disputed May elections shows no sign of ending. President Peter Mutharika has offered to negotiate with the opposition, but opposition parties say the president is illegitimate and should step aside.”
Luke Tyburski, Foreign Policy: “Malawi’s Election Was Not Stolen With White-Out: A disputed presidential poll in the small southern African country has led to upheaval. International observers must release key data rather than staying silent if they want to promote stability and trust in the electoral process.”
Mauritius Legislative – November 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “No clear lead as Mauritius heads to the ballot box”
Jess Auerbach, African Arguments: “Mauritius’ micro-politics: Everybody needs good neighbours – Politics in Mauritius is perhaps unique in the world. On this tiny speck in the Indian Ocean, there is no indigenous population. Everyone in this hugely diverse population of 1.2 million people descends from migrants whether from Africa, Asia or Europe. How are elections fought and won in a country like this?”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, and he lost his appeal.
Camillus Eboh, Reuters: “Nigeria’s Supreme Court on Wednesday [October 30] dismissed an appeal by the main opposition candidate to overturn the result of February’s presidential election in which Muhammadu Buhari was returned to office. Atiku Abubakar lodged his initial complaint with the election tribunal, which ruled against him last month. Tuesday’s decision is likely to end the former vice president’s ambition to govern Africa’s most populous country.”
Eromo Egbejule, The Africa Report: “Atiku has been a recurring figure in national politics for the past three decades and has made three runs for the presidency. One of Nigeria’s wealthiest businessmen, Atiku retains a strong base in the south and the north-east….The position will be vacant in 2023, according to Buhari’s office, which has denied any interest in forcing a constitutional amendment to secure a third term in office for the incumbent.”
Elliot Smith, CNBC: “Nigeria has shut down its land borders, restricting trade and further compounding an uncertain outlook for Africa’s largest economy. Such a drastic move from one of Africa’s major players also casts doubt over the continent’s wider push toward free trade and cooperation.”
Ademola Bello, Council on Foreign Relations: “The UN Should Speak Up About the Unlawful Detention of Journalists in Nigeria”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Tom Wilson, Financial Times: “Handshake ends crisis and leads to signs of progress in Kenya: A political truce has triggered a shift in policy and outlook for the country”
Charles Onyango-Obbo, The Citizen (Tanzania): “OPINION: What Kibra poll says about Kenya”
Max Bearak, Washington Post: “In Kenya’s battle against al-Shabab, locals say the military is fighting terror with terror”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Peter Elias, The Citizen (Tanzania): “Political opposition parties have expressed mixed feelings about the upcoming local government elections which are entering another state towards voting next month. Nominated political parties’ candidates start collecting forms today. But the opposition is still worried about possible manipulations to block their aspirants.”
Peter Beaumont, The Guardian: “Tanzania president Magufuli condemned for authoritarian regime: Amnesty and Human Rights Watch raise concerns over rising levels of abuses against activists, opponents and the press – including arrest of journalist Erick Kabendera”
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “Magufuli Is Bulldozing Human Rights in Tanzania….Magufuli, who earned the popular nickname ‘the Bulldozer’ from his time as minister of public works, was elected promising to reform Tanzania and end corruption. Instead, his administration has steadily trimmed the rights of opposition politicians and members of civil society.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister.
Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years. There is a risk of a coup, and the elections could be delayed – there is a debate over whether holding the elections as scheduled or delaying them would be a better move for stability.
Nonetheless, Vaz plans to run for re-election. Dubbed a “narco-state” because the drug trade has penetrated the government, Guinea-Bissau risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
The Economist: “Guinea-Bissau, Africa’s most famous narco-state, goes to the polls. But drug-money still seems deeply enmeshed in politics.”
Al Jazeera: “Guinea-Bissau President Jose Mario Vaz has fired the country’s prime minister and named a new one, intensifying a bitter power struggle between him and the ruling party before next month’s presidential poll. But in a move that complicated the political crisis in the West African country, Aristide Gomes, the dismissed prime minister, said he would not be leaving office.”
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “It was the third government to be dissolved in two years with Mr Gomes latest administration lasting only five months.”
Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell, The Conversation: “Vaz’s action is a step backwards in terms of the political gains made during the successful legislative elections in March. Prior to that the country and its 1.8 million citizens had made considerable political progress in the wake of five major coup events over the past 19 years – and an ongoing constitutional crisis. The crisis stems from continued tensions between the legislature and the presidency.”
United Nations: “Concerned by Impact of Presidential Decrees in Guinea-Bissau, Secretary-General Calls on Stakeholders to Follow Existing Arrangements until November Election”
New Europe: “EU warns Guinea-Bissau leader after pre-vote crisis deepens”
Guinea Legislative – December 28, 2019 (very tentative) and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader, came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule. The transition was difficult and the elections were chaotic, but were generally considered the first free elections since Guinea’s 1954 independence.
Condé prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).
The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.
Charles Onyango-Obbo, The East African: “In the past few weeks, the capital Conakry and other towns have erupted in protests, and Guinea’s prisons are filling up with opposition activists. Conde, has become thirsty for more too. If he succeeds, Conde will become the 15th African leader in the past 20 years to finagle either a third term or presidency-for-life. Another almost equal number have tried, and been foiled.”
Victoria Gatenby, Al Jazeera (video): “Funerals for 11 people killed in protests in Guinea earlier this month have been delayed because the government has not released the bodies to the families yet. Tens of thousands of people have been demonstrating against a possible change to the constitution that could allow President Alpha Conde to seek a third term in power.”
AFP: “Tens of thousands of Guineans rallied in support of President Alpha Conde on Thursday [October 31] after two weeks of violent protests against the leader’s suspected bid to prolong his rule claimed around 10 lives.”
Susanna Fioratta, The Conversation: “How conspiracy theory shapes reality: an example from Guinea”
Togo Presidential – February or March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.2 million
Togo’s 2018 legislative elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. The C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, Togo’s parliament amended the constitution to allow Gnassingbé to run for two more terms, which could allow him to remain in power until 2030.
Didier A., Togo Breaking News (in French): “We now know that the 2020 presidential election will be held on a date between February 19 and March 5, 2020. The Constitutional Court gave this clarification last Thursday. The Togolese Head of State intends to go very quickly to have enough time for other things, economic reforms in particular. Faure Gnassingbé hinted that the presidential election will take place early.”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019 (delayed to 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
RFI (in French): “The Patriotic Movement of Salvation, the ruling party, held its congress on Saturday, November 2nd.”
Marurin S. Atcha, Benin Web (in French): “It was an opportunity for Idriss Déby Itno and his comrades to remobilize their troop for the legislative and local planned for the first quarter of the year 2020.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Reuters: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Sunday the death toll from protests last month had risen to 86 and urged citizens to resist forces threatening to impede the country’s progress.”
Jason Burke, The Guardian: “Deadly unrest in Ethiopia hampers PM’s political reform attempts: Nobel peace prize winner Abiy Ahmed’s fallout with former supporter sparked violence that killed scores.”
David Pilling, Financial Times: “Fractures appear in Ethiopia’s ethno-political mosaic: At some point, Ethiopia will need a new political settlement that balances the competing forces of ethnic and national identity. Ethiopia is Africa’s most optimistic story. It is also one of its most precarious.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
AFP: “The United Nations envoy to Burundi announced on Wednesday [October 30] that he planned to step down from the post he has held for two years, amid concerns over the impartiality of elections set for 2020.”
RFI: “Four journalists and their driver are still being held in Burundi after they were arrested for allegedly undermining national security while covering a rebel attack from neighbouring DR Congo, according to the attorney general in Bujumbura….The journalists, from the Iwacu newspaper, one of the last independent publications in Burundi, were detained along with their driver while trying to speak to residents fleeing fighting between rebels and national forces.”
AFP: “Security forces have arrested 23 local officials of one of Burundi’s main opposition parties following the ‘attempted murder’ of a government official, a party official said Tuesday. The wave of arrests outside the country’s largest city Bujumbura began on Friday [November 1], when 16 officials of the National Freedom Council were picked up, the party’s international representative Aime Magera told AFP from exile in Belgium.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
William Niba, AFP: Côte d’Ivoire has filed an injunction at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, following the January acquittal of former president Laurent Gbagbo over charges of crimes against humanity during the 2010 post-election violence in which 3,000 people are reported to have been killed. The move underscores Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara’s intent to keep his political rival out of the 2020 elections, according to says Stephanie van den Berg, a blogger based at The Hague.”
AFP/RFI (in French): “Nearly three thousand foreigners and Ivorians gathered Saturday in Gagnoa (center-south), one of the country’s most populous cities, for a rally ‘for peace,’ one year ahead of the presidential election which promises to be tense 10 years after the post-election crisis that left 3,000 dead.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Christina Krippahl, DW: “Change of regime leaves Burkina Faso disillusioned: Five years after an uprising chased Blaise Compaore from power, terrorism and its dire impact on a rural economy cast a pall over a country that had hoped for a democratic, prosperous future.”
Reuters: “16 Killed in Burkina Faso in Suspected Jihadist Attack”
https://twitter.com/DrumChronicles/status/1191066655281045505
Simon Gongo, Bloomberg: “A Burkinabe Parliament member, who was also one of the last authorities in a region ravaged by militants, was killed in a suicide bomb attack in the northern Djibo region on Sunday [November 3], security and government officials said.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with FDC’s candidate in a recent by-election.
Michael Mutyaba, African Arguments: “To beat or not to beat: Museveni’s big Bobi Wine problem: The recent ban on red berets might appear insignificant, but it reveals the real dilemma of Museveni’s state. More repression has the potential to fuel more revolt. Less repression could open the lid on popular frustrations that have been suppressed for so long.”
Misairi Thembo Kahungu, Daily Monitor (Uganda): “Why Uganda’s political space keeps shrinking, despite having 29 parties”
Halima Athumani, VOA: “Fear in Uganda’s Gay Community after Death Penalty Threat, Arrests”
Past Africa Elections
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly elects a new president following the parliamentary elections.
AP: “Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi has been sworn in after an election that saw the previous president break with the ruling party and back the opposition.”
Sarah Hudleston, Business Live (South Africa): “Opposition leaders boycotted the inauguration of Botswana president Mokgweetsi Masisi in Gaborone on Friday [November 1]. Masisi, the leader of the victorious Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), took the oath of office in a packed indoor stadium at Botswana University, in front of foreign dignitaries. including Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who received a rapturous welcome from the crowd.”
AFP: “In a speech before several thousand supporters, Masisi promised to tackle corruption in diamond-rich Botswana, which has been seen across Africa as a beacon of stability and democracy. Masisi did not mention his predecessor, Ian Khama, who has been embroiled in a dispute with the president since last year and who himself is now entangled in a corruption scandal.”
Mqondisi Dube, VOA: “Female under-representation in politics continues to be a problem in Botswana, where only three women won seats in the 57-member National Assembly during last week’s general elections. Activists say the central African country has a bias against women both in its electoral system and its culture.”
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Southern Africa’s Tale of Two Elections: Mozambique and Botswana”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
These elections were characterized by violence in the lead-up, including the murder of an election observer. A breakaway faction of RENAMO threatened violence if the elections proceeded. FRELIMO won, but RENAMO alleged fraud and insisted on a re-run (which is unlikely to happen).
AFP: “Mozambique’s largest opposition party Renamo on Wednesday [October 30] lodged court papers calling for the October 15 election results to be annulled due to ‘massive electoral fraud.’”
Reuters: “Nyusi and his ruling Frelimo party won big in the election, which was hoped would calm tensions in Mozambique, soon to become a top global gas exporter. Instead, the contested result has stoked divisions as opposition parties have cried foul.”
Jane Flanagan and Tom Parfitt, The Times (London): “As many as ten Russian mercenaries are understood to have been killed, some of them beheaded, in Mozambique where they were fighting an insurgency to advance Moscow’s influence in Africa. Five fighters from the Wagner Group, linked to a close ally of President Putin, died alongside 20 government troops in an ambush by Islamists in the north of the country, according to Carta de Mocambique newspaper. “
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “Mozambique peace deal at risk over poll fraud claims: Mozambique’s electoral commission has admitted that there were irregularities in the October 15 elections, which saw President Filipe Nyusi win a second five-year term.”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Eusebius McKaiser, Foreign Policy: “The Democratic Alliance’s Demise Puts South Africa’s Multiparty Democracy at Risk: The implosion of the country’s leading opposition party is bad news for competitive politics and democratic institutions—and its impact will be felt across Africa.”
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times: “Opposition rift highlights South Africa’s race inequality: Maimane’s resignation a damning verdict on DA’s attempts to transform itself”
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
Maurice Soudieck Dione, The Conversation: “Senegal’s president uses political manoeuvres to mask authoritarian tactics”
Sierra Leone General – March 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.3 million
Luisa Enira and Jamie Hitchen, African Arguments: “Sierra Leone: How the SLPP took power. And then took some more. Last year, the Sierra Leone People’s Party won the presidency but not parliament. Power was divided, but not for long.”
Djibouti Parliamentary – February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Population: 884,000
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Africa Times: “Opposition leaders in Djibouti are condemning the ‘scorched earth’ policies of President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh and his regime, following a second day of street protests on the outskirts of the capital. Adan Mohamed Abdou, president of the USN alliance covering four opposition groups, said the protests in Arhiba followed the arrest of a member of his Republican Alliance for Development (ARD) party on Thursday [October 31].”
Africa This Week – November 4, 2019
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Last Updated: November 13, 2019 by 21votes
November 4, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Africa elections on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Mauritius Legislative – November 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, but he is expected to appeal.
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister.
Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years. There is a risk of a coup, and the elections could be delayed – there is a debate over whether holding the elections as scheduled or delaying them would be a better move for stability.
Nonetheless, Vaz plans to run for re-election. Dubbed a “narco-state” because the drug trade has penetrated the government, Guinea-Bissau risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
Guinea Legislative – December 28, 2019 (very tentative) and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader, came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule. The transition was difficult and the elections were chaotic, but were generally considered the first free elections since Guinea’s 1954 independence.
Condé prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).
The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.
Togo Presidential - February or March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.2 million
Togo’s 2018 legislative elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. The C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, Togo’s parliament amended the constitution to allow Gnassingbé to run for two more terms, which could allow him to remain in power until 2030.
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019 (delayed to 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with FDC’s candidate in a recent by-election.
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly elects a new president following the parliamentary elections.
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
These elections were characterized by violence in the lead-up, including the murder of an election observer. A breakaway faction of RENAMO threatened violence if the elections proceeded. FRELIMO won, but RENAMO alleged fraud and insisted on a re-run (which is unlikely to happen).
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019 (Postponed)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
Sierra Leone General – March 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.3 million
Djibouti Parliamentary - February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Population: 884,000
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Upcoming Africa Elections
Malawi Parliamentary By-Election in Lilongwe South – November 5, 2019 (Postponed)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.8 million
A series of protests (which are ongoing) followed Malawi’s May 2019 presidential, legislative, and local elections. Protesters alleged that Peter Mutharika’s re-election was fraudulent, dubbing it the “Tipp-Ex Election” after a popular brand of correction fluid that they allege officials used to change the results. However, the use of Tipp-Ex might not actually have been the smoking gun that it looks like. The opposition is also challenging the election results in court.
Malawi’s last few elections have taken place in a tense political environment, and it is one of the poorest countries in the world. Political parties are weak and based more on personality than ideology. The Lilongwe South by-election is taking place because one of the candidates for the constituency died in the lead-up to the May general elections.
Maravi Post: “Malawi electoral body postpones Lilongwe South By-Elections over political violence….Once the situation improves, the Commission will announce a new date for the polling.”
Lameck Masina, VOA: “The political impasse in Malawi stemming from disputed May elections shows no sign of ending. President Peter Mutharika has offered to negotiate with the opposition, but opposition parties say the president is illegitimate and should step aside.”
Luke Tyburski, Foreign Policy: “Malawi’s Election Was Not Stolen With White-Out: A disputed presidential poll in the small southern African country has led to upheaval. International observers must release key data rather than staying silent if they want to promote stability and trust in the electoral process.”
Mauritius Legislative – November 7, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.4 million
Mauritius is a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. In the 2014 elections, the social democratic Labour Party of Navin Ramgoolam lost, bringing Sir Anerood Jugnauth and his Alliance Lepep (also social democratic) back into the position of Prime Minister, which he had held on and off since 1982. In 2017, Jugnauth passed the office on to his son, Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, a somewhat controversial move. Ramgoolam himself is the son of former prime minister and independence leader Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam.
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “No clear lead as Mauritius heads to the ballot box”
Jess Auerbach, African Arguments: “Mauritius’ micro-politics: Everybody needs good neighbours – Politics in Mauritius is perhaps unique in the world. On this tiny speck in the Indian Ocean, there is no indigenous population. Everyone in this hugely diverse population of 1.2 million people descends from migrants whether from Africa, Asia or Europe. How are elections fought and won in a country like this?”
Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa State Governorships and Niger State Local Government – November 16, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Party Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: Nigeria – 203.5 million; Kogi State – 3.1 million; Bayelsa State – 1.7 million; Niger State – 4 million (Nigeria’s largest state)
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The two main political parties are the “sort-of-right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and “sort-of-left” All Progressives Congress (APC), plus a plethora of smaller parties. Historically, PDP has been strong in Christian areas and in the south, while APC has been strong in the mostly-Muslim north. Nigeria is about half Christian and half Muslim, and there is some religious conflict, but religion is not the only driver of conflict in the country. There is a handshake agreement that the presidency will rotate between the north and the south every eight years, regardless of which party wins; thus, for the 2019 election, both major parties chose candidates from the north. PDP nominated Atiku Abubakar to challenge APC incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, who won narrowly. APC also won a majority in the legislature.
A debate over federalism played a major role in Nigeria’s February 2019 general elections. Atiku advocated for a greater devolution of powers to state governments, a proposal that Buhari categorically opposed. Political power is currently highly centralized, but many argue that it is dysfunctional.
Voters in 29 of Nigeria’s 36 states elected governors during the general elections in February 2019. Bayelsa State in the southern oil-producing Niger Delta, and Kogi State in the Middle Belt have gubernatorial elections in mid-November. (The Middle Belt is a largely-agricultural area that forms the border between the mostly-Muslim north and mostly Christian south, and the site of a deadly conflict between farmers and herders.) PDP currently control Bayelsa (and 13 other states), and APC currently controls the remaining states, including Kogi. These state elections are taking place in the context of continued litigation over the national elections. Atiku has challenged his defeat in court, alleging electoral fraud. A tribunal rejected his complaint, and he lost his appeal.
Camillus Eboh, Reuters: “Nigeria’s Supreme Court on Wednesday [October 30] dismissed an appeal by the main opposition candidate to overturn the result of February’s presidential election in which Muhammadu Buhari was returned to office. Atiku Abubakar lodged his initial complaint with the election tribunal, which ruled against him last month. Tuesday’s decision is likely to end the former vice president’s ambition to govern Africa’s most populous country.”
Eromo Egbejule, The Africa Report: “Atiku has been a recurring figure in national politics for the past three decades and has made three runs for the presidency. One of Nigeria’s wealthiest businessmen, Atiku retains a strong base in the south and the north-east….The position will be vacant in 2023, according to Buhari’s office, which has denied any interest in forcing a constitutional amendment to secure a third term in office for the incumbent.”
Elliot Smith, CNBC: “Nigeria has shut down its land borders, restricting trade and further compounding an uncertain outlook for Africa’s largest economy. Such a drastic move from one of Africa’s major players also casts doubt over the continent’s wider push toward free trade and cooperation.”
Ademola Bello, Council on Foreign Relations: “The UN Should Speak Up About the Unlawful Detention of Journalists in Nigeria”
Kenya Kibra By-Election – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.4 million
Kenya’s next general elections are not due until 2022. The August 2017 elections were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Kibra constituency is located in Nairobi County and includes Kibera, often called “Africa’s largest slum.” The seat became open when incumbent Ken Okoth died of cancer in July 2019. Okoth was a member of Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Tom Wilson, Financial Times: “Handshake ends crisis and leads to signs of progress in Kenya: A political truce has triggered a shift in policy and outlook for the country”
Charles Onyango-Obbo, The Citizen (Tanzania): “OPINION: What Kibra poll says about Kenya”
Max Bearak, Washington Post: “In Kenya’s battle against al-Shabab, locals say the military is fighting terror with terror”
Tanzania Local – November 24, 2019 and General – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 55.5 million
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, John Magufuli won, and has since launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector. The main opposition center-right Chadema, whose leader Freeman Mbowe recently spent nearly five months in prison on charges of sedition, currently holds 62 out of 384 seats in the unicameral National Assembly. Edward Lowassa, a former CCM prime minister who ran for president in 2015 as the candidate of Chadema and a coalition of other opposition parties, won 40 percent of the vote. Lowassa has since returned to CCM along with other opposition figures who have been bribed or bullied into crossing the aisle and joining the ruling party.
The Economist notes, “Today Tanzania is on the descent from patchy democracy towards slapdash dictatorship.”
Peter Elias, The Citizen (Tanzania): “Political opposition parties have expressed mixed feelings about the upcoming local government elections which are entering another state towards voting next month. Nominated political parties’ candidates start collecting forms today. But the opposition is still worried about possible manipulations to block their aspirants.”
Peter Beaumont, The Guardian: “Tanzania president Magufuli condemned for authoritarian regime: Amnesty and Human Rights Watch raise concerns over rising levels of abuses against activists, opponents and the press – including arrest of journalist Erick Kabendera”
Andrew Green, World Politics Review: “Magufuli Is Bulldozing Human Rights in Tanzania….Magufuli, who earned the popular nickname ‘the Bulldozer’ from his time as minister of public works, was elected promising to reform Tanzania and end corruption. Instead, his administration has steadily trimmed the rights of opposition politicians and members of civil society.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 1.8 million
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats, voting in Aristide Gomes as prime minister.
Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Although analysts believed that the March 2019 legislative elections improved the situation, the country regressed once again at the end of October 2019, when Vaz fired Gomes, and Gomes refused to leave office – the third government dissolution in two years. There is a risk of a coup, and the elections could be delayed – there is a debate over whether holding the elections as scheduled or delaying them would be a better move for stability.
Nonetheless, Vaz plans to run for re-election. Dubbed a “narco-state” because the drug trade has penetrated the government, Guinea-Bissau risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
The Economist: “Guinea-Bissau, Africa’s most famous narco-state, goes to the polls. But drug-money still seems deeply enmeshed in politics.”
Al Jazeera: “Guinea-Bissau President Jose Mario Vaz has fired the country’s prime minister and named a new one, intensifying a bitter power struggle between him and the ruling party before next month’s presidential poll. But in a move that complicated the political crisis in the West African country, Aristide Gomes, the dismissed prime minister, said he would not be leaving office.”
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “It was the third government to be dissolved in two years with Mr Gomes latest administration lasting only five months.”
Clayton Besaw and Jonathan Powell, The Conversation: “Vaz’s action is a step backwards in terms of the political gains made during the successful legislative elections in March. Prior to that the country and its 1.8 million citizens had made considerable political progress in the wake of five major coup events over the past 19 years – and an ongoing constitutional crisis. The crisis stems from continued tensions between the legislature and the presidency.”
United Nations: “Concerned by Impact of Presidential Decrees in Guinea-Bissau, Secretary-General Calls on Stakeholders to Follow Existing Arrangements until November Election”
New Europe: “EU warns Guinea-Bissau leader after pre-vote crisis deepens”
Guinea Legislative – December 28, 2019 (very tentative) and Presidential – October 2020 (due)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.9 million
Elections in Guinea routinely see significant delays and have historically been surrounded by ethnic tensions and violence. President Alpha Condé, a former opposition leader, came to power in 2010 following a transition from military to civilian rule. The transition was difficult and the elections were chaotic, but were generally considered the first free elections since Guinea’s 1954 independence.
Condé prevented by the constitution from running for a third term in the presidential polls due in 2020. However, he wants to change the constitution to allow him to do so (which Russia is encouraging because Russian companies have mining interests in Guinea).
The terms of the current legislators expired in January 2019. Condé extended their mandates, and a new election date has not been set. The election commission has proposed holding them on December 28, 2019, but the opposition says the date is not realistic.
Charles Onyango-Obbo, The East African: “In the past few weeks, the capital Conakry and other towns have erupted in protests, and Guinea’s prisons are filling up with opposition activists. Conde, has become thirsty for more too. If he succeeds, Conde will become the 15th African leader in the past 20 years to finagle either a third term or presidency-for-life. Another almost equal number have tried, and been foiled.”
Victoria Gatenby, Al Jazeera (video): “Funerals for 11 people killed in protests in Guinea earlier this month have been delayed because the government has not released the bodies to the families yet. Tens of thousands of people have been demonstrating against a possible change to the constitution that could allow President Alpha Conde to seek a third term in power.”
AFP: “Tens of thousands of Guineans rallied in support of President Alpha Conde on Thursday [October 31] after two weeks of violent protests against the leader’s suspected bid to prolong his rule claimed around 10 lives.”
Susanna Fioratta, The Conversation: “How conspiracy theory shapes reality: an example from Guinea”
Togo Presidential – February or March 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.2 million
Togo’s 2018 legislative elections happened in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. The C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, Togo’s parliament amended the constitution to allow Gnassingbé to run for two more terms, which could allow him to remain in power until 2030.
Didier A., Togo Breaking News (in French): “We now know that the 2020 presidential election will be held on a date between February 19 and March 5, 2020. The Constitutional Court gave this clarification last Thursday. The Togolese Head of State intends to go very quickly to have enough time for other things, economic reforms in particular. Faure Gnassingbé hinted that the presidential election will take place early.”
Chad Legislative and Local – Due 2019 (delayed to 2020)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15.8 million
Idriss Déby seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, view the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and provide military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing legitimate political opposition.
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed multiple times. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. The government had said that elections will be held by a September deadline, but the deadline passed and the elections did not happen.
RFI (in French): “The Patriotic Movement of Salvation, the ruling party, held its congress on Saturday, November 2nd.”
Marurin S. Atcha, Benin Web (in French): “It was an opportunity for Idriss Déby Itno and his comrades to remobilize their troop for the legislative and local planned for the first quarter of the year 2020.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 108.4 million
In 1974, communist rebels deposed Ethiopia’s Emperor Haile Selassie and instituted the Derg (“Committee”), a Marxist military junta led by Mengistu Haile Mariam, which brought forth famines and a collapse of Ethiopia’s economy. It governed brutally, even genocidally. Following a civil war, the Derg was ousted in 1991 by the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of ethnically-based rebel militias. The EPRDF took power and morphed into a coalition of four ethnically-based political parties: Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). In power, EPRDF instituted a controversial ethnically-based federalist system that has led to a current climate of tension and unrest.
EPRDF has held elections regularly, but aside from the 2005 polls, none were competitive or credible. In the last elections, in 2015, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats. However, following three years of protests, the EPRDF chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister in 2018. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners, opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space, and holding free and fair elections in 2020. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles, including entrenched opposition to democracy within EPRDF. However, ongoing ethnic conflict could threaten Abiy’s reforms. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful.
Reuters: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said on Sunday the death toll from protests last month had risen to 86 and urged citizens to resist forces threatening to impede the country’s progress.”
Jason Burke, The Guardian: “Deadly unrest in Ethiopia hampers PM’s political reform attempts: Nobel peace prize winner Abiy Ahmed’s fallout with former supporter sparked violence that killed scores.”
David Pilling, Financial Times: “Fractures appear in Ethiopia’s ethno-political mosaic: At some point, Ethiopia will need a new political settlement that balances the competing forces of ethnic and national identity. Ethiopia is Africa’s most optimistic story. It is also one of its most precarious.”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.8 million
Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but since then, President Pierre Nkurunziza has turned the country into a dictatorship that former U.N. rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein described as one of “the most prolific slaughterhouses of humans in recent times.” In 2015, Nkurunziza ran for a third term, a move critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis, and the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. Nkurunziza won. Nonetheless, some opposition lawmakers did take their seats in parliament.
The upcoming elections are taking place in a climate of fear, with citizens, and especially opposition and civil society activists, being terrorized by state security apparatus and the Imbonerakure, a youth militia connected to Nkurunziza’s National Council for the Defense of Democracy–Forces for the Defense of Democracy party (a party that in fact does the opposite of defending democracy). Nkurunziza has said he would step down in 2020, but some are concerned that he will run for a fourth term. There are also fears that Nkurunziza – a former Hutu rebel commander – is ethnicizing the country’s politics, which could reignite conflict.
AFP: “The United Nations envoy to Burundi announced on Wednesday [October 30] that he planned to step down from the post he has held for two years, amid concerns over the impartiality of elections set for 2020.”
RFI: “Four journalists and their driver are still being held in Burundi after they were arrested for allegedly undermining national security while covering a rebel attack from neighbouring DR Congo, according to the attorney general in Bujumbura….The journalists, from the Iwacu newspaper, one of the last independent publications in Burundi, were detained along with their driver while trying to speak to residents fleeing fighting between rebels and national forces.”
AFP: “Security forces have arrested 23 local officials of one of Burundi’s main opposition parties following the ‘attempted murder’ of a government official, a party official said Tuesday. The wave of arrests outside the country’s largest city Bujumbura began on Friday [November 1], when 16 officials of the National Freedom Council were picked up, the party’s international representative Aime Magera told AFP from exile in Belgium.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 26.3 million
These elections are taking place in a heated political context, and the personalities gearing up to contest the presidential election have been fixtures in Côte d’Ivoire’s politics since the death of Félix Houphouët-Boigny, who served as Côte d’Ivoire’s president from independence in 1960 until his death in 1993.
Until 1999, the country was stable and seen as a model of economic prosperity in the region, but two civil wars – first beginning in1999 and the second ending in 2011 – have created political instability, although the economy remains strong as Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest producer of cocoa beans..
Democratization began in 1990, and Houphouët-Boigny and his Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire – African Democratic Rally (PDCI-RDA) trounced Laurent Gbagbo and the socialist Ivorian Popular Front (FPI) in the first multi-party elections that year. Following Houphouët-Boigny’s death, Henri Konan Bédié, then speaker of the National Assembly and a member of PDCI-RDA, became president after a brief struggle with then-Prime Minister Prime Minister Alassane Ouattara, a technocrat who had joined PDCI-RDA. Ouattara then took a job abroad with the International Monetary Fund and joined the liberal Rally of Republicans (RDR) party. Bédié was deposed in a military coup in 1999, which kicked off the first civil war.
Houpouët-Boigny’s development of cocoa farming planted the seeds of the conflict. He had a policy of encouraging immigrant laborers from neighboring Burkina Faso, and now Burkinabés, as these families are called, constitute 30 percent of the country’s population. In the mid- and late-1990s, politicians pushed the idea of Ivoirité, a concept that imagines national identity as fundamentally southern and Christian.
Gbagbo lost the 2010 election to Ouattara, but he refused to step down even though the international community recognized Ouattara’s victory. The surrounding violence led to 3,000 deaths and half a million displaced people. Gbagbo was arrested four months after the polls and charged with war crimes (he was acquitted in 2019, but the prosecution is appealing the verdict). In 2015, Ouattara won re-election in relatively peaceful and credible polls. Gbagbo and Bédié had a meeting in Brussels in July 2019 that sparked rumors about a possible alliance ahead of the 2020 elections.
William Niba, AFP: Côte d’Ivoire has filed an injunction at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, following the January acquittal of former president Laurent Gbagbo over charges of crimes against humanity during the 2010 post-election violence in which 3,000 people are reported to have been killed. The move underscores Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara’s intent to keep his political rival out of the 2020 elections, according to says Stephanie van den Berg, a blogger based at The Hague.”
AFP/RFI (in French): “Nearly three thousand foreigners and Ivorians gathered Saturday in Gagnoa (center-south), one of the country’s most populous cities, for a rally ‘for peace,’ one year ahead of the presidential election which promises to be tense 10 years after the post-election crisis that left 3,000 dead.”
Burkina Faso General – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 19.7 million
Burkina Faso’s 2015 presidential and legislative elections – described as the most competitive in the history of the country – ushered Roch Marc Christian Kaboré of the People’s Movement for Progress (MPP) into the presidency with 53 percent of the vote. MPP, which is a member of Socialist International, won 55 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly.
The election removed Blaise Compaoré, who had come to the presidency in 1987 via a coup. Compaoré and his Congress for Democracy and Progress (CDP) won a series of multiparty elections between 1991 and 2015. Compaoré sought to change the electoral rules so he could run again in 2015, but a united opposition and civil society-led protests forced him out of office, with the military and then a transitional civilian government running the country until the elections.
The reform process continues, Burkina Faso’s democrats face many challenges, including corruption and the constant threat of terrorism. Nevertheless, Burkinabé civil society and media maintain a strong commitment to democracy.
Christina Krippahl, DW: “Change of regime leaves Burkina Faso disillusioned: Five years after an uprising chased Blaise Compaore from power, terrorism and its dire impact on a rural economy cast a pall over a country that had hoped for a democratic, prosperous future.”
Reuters: “16 Killed in Burkina Faso in Suspected Jihadist Attack”
https://twitter.com/DrumChronicles/status/1191066655281045505
Simon Gongo, Bloomberg: “A Burkinabe Parliament member, who was also one of the last authorities in a region ravaged by militants, was killed in a suicide bomb attack in the northern Djibo region on Sunday [November 3], security and government officials said.”
Uganda General – February 2021
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Partly Free this year)
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 40.9 million
President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986 and looks likely to seek a sixth term. Musaveni is seen as an ally to Western governments on counterterrorism issues, despite concerns about human rights and civil liberties.
Musaveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM), an authoritarian nationalist party, was originally a militia involved in the struggle to topple the government in 1986. In the last presidential election in 2016 (which was marred by an uneven playing field and government use of state resources and security services for political purposes), Kizza Besigye of the main opposition center-right Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) won 35.6 percent, coming in second. NRM holds 293 out of 426 seats in parliament, and FDC holds 36 (other opposition parties hold 21).
For the upcoming elections, 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine has emerged as a leading opposition candidate. Wine campaigned with FDC’s candidate in a recent by-election.
Michael Mutyaba, African Arguments: “To beat or not to beat: Museveni’s big Bobi Wine problem: The recent ban on red berets might appear insignificant, but it reveals the real dilemma of Museveni’s state. More repression has the potential to fuel more revolt. Less repression could open the lid on popular frustrations that have been suppressed for so long.”
Misairi Thembo Kahungu, Daily Monitor (Uganda): “Why Uganda’s political space keeps shrinking, despite having 29 parties”
Halima Athumani, VOA: “Fear in Uganda’s Gay Community after Death Penalty Threat, Arrests”
Past Africa Elections
Botswana Parliamentary – October 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 2.2 million
Botswana, the world’s second-largest producer of diamonds, is a stable democracy with regular free, fair, credible elections. In 2018, President Ian Khama stepped down exactly 10 years after his inauguration, in keeping with the constitutional limit of two terms in office (his predecessor had done the same thing).
Mokgweetsi Masisi, the former vice president, is filling the role of the presidency until after the elections, when the National Assembly will choose a new president. Khama’s Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) – founded by his father, Seretse Khama – has dominated politics since independence in 1966, but soon after leaving office, Khama left the BDP to support a new party, the Botswana Patriotic Front (BFP), which has ties to the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Botswana’s main opposition coalition. The split has the opportunity to open up debate on actual policy, but it could devolve into a personal power struggle. There is concern that some of Botswana’s institutions are eroding.
The National Assembly elects a new president following the parliamentary elections.
AP: “Botswana’s President Mokgweetsi Masisi has been sworn in after an election that saw the previous president break with the ruling party and back the opposition.”
Sarah Hudleston, Business Live (South Africa): “Opposition leaders boycotted the inauguration of Botswana president Mokgweetsi Masisi in Gaborone on Friday [November 1]. Masisi, the leader of the victorious Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), took the oath of office in a packed indoor stadium at Botswana University, in front of foreign dignitaries. including Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa, who received a rapturous welcome from the crowd.”
AFP: “In a speech before several thousand supporters, Masisi promised to tackle corruption in diamond-rich Botswana, which has been seen across Africa as a beacon of stability and democracy. Masisi did not mention his predecessor, Ian Khama, who has been embroiled in a dispute with the president since last year and who himself is now entangled in a corruption scandal.”
Mqondisi Dube, VOA: “Female under-representation in politics continues to be a problem in Botswana, where only three women won seats in the 57-member National Assembly during last week’s general elections. Activists say the central African country has a bias against women both in its electoral system and its culture.”
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations: “Southern Africa’s Tale of Two Elections: Mozambique and Botswana”
Mozambique Presidential, Legislative, and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 27.2 million
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth. Russia has ramped up its involvement in Mozambique’s energy and security sectors.
RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. In the upcoming elections, in addition to voting for president, citizens will elect provincial governors directly for the first time – previously, they had been appointed by the president.
These elections were characterized by violence in the lead-up, including the murder of an election observer. A breakaway faction of RENAMO threatened violence if the elections proceeded. FRELIMO won, but RENAMO alleged fraud and insisted on a re-run (which is unlikely to happen).
AFP: “Mozambique’s largest opposition party Renamo on Wednesday [October 30] lodged court papers calling for the October 15 election results to be annulled due to ‘massive electoral fraud.’”
Reuters: “Nyusi and his ruling Frelimo party won big in the election, which was hoped would calm tensions in Mozambique, soon to become a top global gas exporter. Instead, the contested result has stoked divisions as opposition parties have cried foul.”
Jane Flanagan and Tom Parfitt, The Times (London): “As many as ten Russian mercenaries are understood to have been killed, some of them beheaded, in Mozambique where they were fighting an insurgency to advance Moscow’s influence in Africa. Five fighters from the Wagner Group, linked to a close ally of President Putin, died alongside 20 government troops in an ambush by Islamists in the north of the country, according to Carta de Mocambique newspaper. “
Arnaldo Vieira, The East African: “Mozambique peace deal at risk over poll fraud claims: Mozambique’s electoral commission has admitted that there were irregularities in the October 15 elections, which saw President Filipe Nyusi win a second five-year term.”
South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 55.4 million
Eusebius McKaiser, Foreign Policy: “The Democratic Alliance’s Demise Puts South Africa’s Multiparty Democracy at Risk: The implosion of the country’s leading opposition party is bad news for competitive politics and democratic institutions—and its impact will be felt across Africa.”
Joseph Cotterill, Financial Times: “Opposition rift highlights South Africa’s race inequality: Maimane’s resignation a damning verdict on DA’s attempts to transform itself”
Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 15 million
Senegal is lauded as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies. However, there are some concerns that the political playing field is becoming less even under President Macky Sall, who was re-elected in the February 2019 presidential elections amid accusations that he had improperly used state resources to suppress opponents and bolster his campaign.
Senegal was supposed to have local elections in December 2019, but they have been postponed to late 2020.
Maurice Soudieck Dione, The Conversation: “Senegal’s president uses political manoeuvres to mask authoritarian tactics”
Sierra Leone General – March 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 6.3 million
Luisa Enira and Jamie Hitchen, African Arguments: “Sierra Leone: How the SLPP took power. And then took some more. Last year, the Sierra Leone People’s Party won the presidency but not parliament. Power was divided, but not for long.”
Djibouti Parliamentary – February 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Population: 884,000
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Africa Times: “Opposition leaders in Djibouti are condemning the ‘scorched earth’ policies of President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh and his regime, following a second day of street protests on the outskirts of the capital. Adan Mohamed Abdou, president of the USN alliance covering four opposition groups, said the protests in Arhiba followed the arrest of a member of his Republican Alliance for Development (ARD) party on Thursday [October 31].”
The Year Ahead: Africa Elections
The Year Ahead: Africa Elections
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Cameroon parliamentary (due October but delayed – new date not set); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Botswana parliamentary (October 23); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – postponed, new date not set); Malawi parliamentary by-elections (November 5); Mauritius parliamentary (November 7); Kenya parliamentary by-election in Kibra (November 7); Nigeria Kogi and Bayelsa state, plus Niger State local government (November 16); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 24); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Madagascar local (November 27); Guinea-Bissau presidential runoff (December 8); Cameroon parliamentary and local (early 2020 – postponed from October 2019); Comoros parliamentary (January); Togo presidential (April); Ethiopia parliamentary (May); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Mali Parliamentary (due June but postponed indefinitely)
Voters in Kenya’s 2007 elections. Photo credit: Flickr/Anthony Karanja (CC BY 2.0)
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Category: This Week Tags: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda