Upcoming Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but will be holding a Senatorial by-election on July 8.
Stephen D. Kollie, African Arguments: “It has now been almost three weeks since Liberia witnessed its biggest anti-government protests since the end of civil war in 2003. In a mass action on 7 June, thousands of people took the streets to express their frustration at poverty, rising inflation, and corruption under President George Weah.”
Abdoulaye W. Dukulé, Front Page Africa: “Liberia: High Stakes for the July 8, 2019 by-elections”
Alline Dunbar, Front Page Africa: “Female Candidates Deliberate Major Platform Issue Ahead of July By-Elections”
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local Assemblies – September 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country.
Peter Munaita and Fred Mwasa W, The East African: “How the return of Katumbi, Bemba will shape Congo”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Congo’s bishops said territory in the east of the country is being ceded to violent extremists, who are using the lack of government control to massacre civilians and plunder resources.”
Africa News: “DRC police clash with opposition party protesters”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Over the past two years, tensions between French speakers (comprising 80 percent of the population) and English speakers have led to violence, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and over half a million internally displaced persons, plus tens of thousands of refugees. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Edwin Kindzeka Moki, AP: “Gunmen have abducted the leader of Cameroon’s main opposition party, John Fru Ndi, from his residence in the English-speaking northwestern town of Bamenda. Nkedze Emilia, a senator of the Social Democratic Front party, said the armed men attacked Fru Ndi in his residence in the Ntarikon neighborhood Friday afternoon.”
Reuters: “Cameroon opposition leader released after abduction in Anglophone region”
Journal du Cameroun: “At least thirsty supporters of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement party who were detained at the Douala Central Prison have been released. The detainees who were arrested in Douala on June 1 following nationwide protests organised by the CRM were released by judges in Douala after dismissing charges against them.”
Mozambique Legislative and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Following the last legislative elections in 2014, FRELIMO holds 144 out of 250 seats in the unicameral Assembly of the Republic, RENAMO has 89, and the center-right Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), which broke off from RENAMO, has 17. RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgencyin the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.
AllAfrica: “Mozambique’s main opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, has chosen two defectors from the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) as its candidates for governor in Zambezia and Tete province in the elections scheduled for 15 October. Renamo chose its candidates on Friday and Saturday for the parliamentary and provincial elections.”
Marcelino Mueia (Quelimane), DW (in Portuguese): “RENAMO announces candidates for provincial governors. The largest opposition party in Mozambique has elected figures who will run in the general election on October 15. RENAMO makes marches in several provinces and spokesman says that ‘victory’ is the watchword.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
The country had a hectic week in politics due to the president’s term ending without a government in place.
Arnaldo Viera, The East African: “Guinea Bissau has been plunged into a power vacuum after the president’s term ended on Sunday without a government in place despite the naming of Aristides Gomes as prime minister. President José Mário Vaz is now blackmailing Parliament to extend his reign until November 24 when elections are scheduled in exchange for him approving a new government to run the country.”
Alonso Soto, Bloomberg: “Guinea-Bissau’s national assembly approved a resolution to remove President Jose Mario Vaz from office and replace him with the head of the legislature, escalating a political feud that’s paralyzed the impoverished West African nation. A majority of 54 out of 102 lawmakers on Thursday voted for Cipriano Cassama to be named as interim president, according to Suzi Barbosa, a lawmaker of the country’s biggest party, known by its acronym PAIGC. Vaz, whose five-year term ended June 23, has decreed that presidential elections to be held on Nov. 24.”
AFP: “Guinea-Bissau’s President Jose Mario Vaz will remain in office until November elections but no longer take part in government affairs, the African 15-nation bloc ECOWAS said on Saturday [June 29].”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Burundi Press Agency: “Burundi’s Electoral Commission releases the 2020 elections calendar.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Fergal Keane, BBC: “After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process.”
Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters: “Ethiopian authorities on Friday arrested the spokesman of a political party promoting the interests of the Amhara ethnic group, the party president said, in a move linked to what the government has described as a failed regional coup attempt.”
Maria Gerth-Niculescu, DW: “Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed looks increasingly vulnerable as he faces deep divisions in the ruling coalition, simmering ethnic conflicts and millions of internally displaced people.”
Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed to press ahead with his reform agenda, saying he won’t be deterred by attacks on the country’s leadership.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Katarina Hoije, Bloomberg: “The leader of Ivory Coast’s second-biggest political party is taking an anti-foreigner stance as campaigning for next year’s presidential elections gears up, sparking concerns of a return to the divisive politics that fueled almost a decade of conflict in the world’s top cocoa grower. Former President Henri Konan Bedie, who first emphasized the difference between ‘real’ Ivorians and migrants in the 1990s, accused President Alassane Ouattara’s administration of favoring members of a ‘certain ethnic group’ for public positions and allowing ‘armed foreigners’ to exploit the West African nation’s resources.”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Bishops in the Ivory Coast have warned of a new civil war in the run-up to 2020 elections, unless urgent action is taken to ease communal tensions and withdraw weapons in the West African state.”
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire’s Laurent Gbagbo, in ‘semi-freedom’, revives his old party”
Past Elections
Togo Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, the legislature approved a constitutional change that would allow Gnassingbé to remain president until 2030, despite protests and calls for the family to be removed from power. The opposition will participate in the June 30 local elections, both as candidates and voters. Protests are likely to heat up again as the country heads toward the 2020 presidential elections.
Emile Kouton, AFP: “Togo on Sunday held its first local elections in 32 years, during which a single family has ruled the West African nation, with most opposition parties taking part after boycotting 2018 parliamentary polls.”
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Kissima Diagana, Reuters: “Mauritania’s electoral commission declared last week that government-backed candidate Mohamed Ould Ghazouani had won the presidency with 52% of the vote. Anti-slavery campaigner Biram Dah Abeid came second with 18.58%, while Mohamed Ould Boubacar, who is backed by Mauritania’s biggest Islamist party, was third with 17.85%. Abeid, Boubacar and fifth-placed candidate Mohamed Ould Maouloud said on Wednesday they had filed an appeal with the Constitutional Council a day earlier, saying the results were not credible.”
VOA: “Mauritania’s constitutional council confirmed Mohamed Ould Ghazouani as president, amid concerns of election impropriety by opposition leaders. On Monday, the West African country’s constitutional council announced Ghazouani had won the June 22 presidential elections with 52% of the vote, rejecting a challenge by the opposition.”
Alex Thurston, World Politics Review: “It may be the first peaceful transfer of power between elected heads of state since Mauritania won its independence from France in 1960, but the victory by Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in presidential elections on June 22 really represents the latest phase of control by a ruling clique of military officers and businessmen whose influence reaches back to the 1980s. With 52 percent of the vote, Ould Ghazouani—a former defense minister and the handpicked successor of outgoing President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz—forestalled a second round, though the opposition claims the results were marred by fraud and is trying to challenge them.”
France24: “Mauritanian police raided the headquarters of two opposition parties, closing one of them amid high tension followed a disputed outcome to presidential elections, sources said Tuesday.”
Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz: “Mauritania blocked the internet over protests though just one in five people are online”
Esha Sarai, VOA: “Nearly six years after his arrest, and two years after he was legally set free, Mauritanian lawyers and international rights groups are calling for authorities to release blogger Mohamed Ould Cheikh Mkhaitir.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Africa News: “Police were deployed around the headquarters of Malawi’s Constitutional Court in Lilongwe, Wednesday, as the court examined requests for the annulment of the presidential election. According to witnesses, their deployment sought to avoid any incident following a volatile political environment since the electoral commission proclaimed President Peter Mutharika winner of the May elections. His two main rivals Lazarus Chakwera and Saulos Chilima, who came second and third respectively, reported fraud, including the use of unofficial discharge sheets, erasures and, the surprisingly high number of fluid corrector stains overloaded with strikes on the ballots.”
Nenenji Mlangeni, Maravi Post: “The Constitutional Court of five-judge panel in High in Lilongwe on Thursday accepted a request by Malawi Congress Party (MCP’s) President Lazarus Chakwera to amend his petition in the presidential elections case. Dr. Chakwera is now asking for fresh election and not a recount of the presidential vote in some areas.”
Sean Tsanzo Kampondeni, Malawi24: “Timeline of the Malawi election case….In short, the next 60 days will be a bumpy ride for Malawi, heading straight for the history books. So better put your seat belt on and keep your knees down.”
Africa This Week – July 1, 2019
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Last Updated: July 9, 2019 by 21votes
July 1, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.
Liberia By-Elections - July 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but will be holding a Senatorial by-election on July 8.
Stephen D. Kollie, African Arguments: “It has now been almost three weeks since Liberia witnessed its biggest anti-government protests since the end of civil war in 2003. In a mass action on 7 June, thousands of people took the streets to express their frustration at poverty, rising inflation, and corruption under President George Weah.”
Abdoulaye W. Dukulé, Front Page Africa: “Liberia: High Stakes for the July 8, 2019 by-elections”
Alline Dunbar, Front Page Africa: “Female Candidates Deliberate Major Platform Issue Ahead of July By-Elections”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Over the past two years, tensions between French speakers (comprising 80 percent of the population) and English speakers have led to violence, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and over half a million internally displaced persons, plus tens of thousands of refugees. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Edwin Kindzeka Moki, AP: “Gunmen have abducted the leader of Cameroon’s main opposition party, John Fru Ndi, from his residence in the English-speaking northwestern town of Bamenda. Nkedze Emilia, a senator of the Social Democratic Front party, said the armed men attacked Fru Ndi in his residence in the Ntarikon neighborhood Friday afternoon.”
Reuters: “Cameroon opposition leader released after abduction in Anglophone region”
Journal du Cameroun: “At least thirsty supporters of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement party who were detained at the Douala Central Prison have been released. The detainees who were arrested in Douala on June 1 following nationwide protests organised by the CRM were released by judges in Douala after dismissing charges against them.”
Mozambique Legislative and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Following the last legislative elections in 2014, FRELIMO holds 144 out of 250 seats in the unicameral Assembly of the Republic, RENAMO has 89, and the center-right Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), which broke off from RENAMO, has 17. RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgencyin the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.
AllAfrica: “Mozambique’s main opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, has chosen two defectors from the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) as its candidates for governor in Zambezia and Tete province in the elections scheduled for 15 October. Renamo chose its candidates on Friday and Saturday for the parliamentary and provincial elections.”
Marcelino Mueia (Quelimane), DW (in Portuguese): “RENAMO announces candidates for provincial governors. The largest opposition party in Mozambique has elected figures who will run in the general election on October 15. RENAMO makes marches in several provinces and spokesman says that ‘victory’ is the watchword.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
The country had a hectic week in politics due to the president’s term ending without a government in place.
Arnaldo Viera, The East African: “Guinea Bissau has been plunged into a power vacuum after the president’s term ended on Sunday without a government in place despite the naming of Aristides Gomes as prime minister. President José Mário Vaz is now blackmailing Parliament to extend his reign until November 24 when elections are scheduled in exchange for him approving a new government to run the country.”
Alonso Soto, Bloomberg: “Guinea-Bissau’s national assembly approved a resolution to remove President Jose Mario Vaz from office and replace him with the head of the legislature, escalating a political feud that’s paralyzed the impoverished West African nation. A majority of 54 out of 102 lawmakers on Thursday voted for Cipriano Cassama to be named as interim president, according to Suzi Barbosa, a lawmaker of the country’s biggest party, known by its acronym PAIGC. Vaz, whose five-year term ended June 23, has decreed that presidential elections to be held on Nov. 24.”
AFP: “Guinea-Bissau’s President Jose Mario Vaz will remain in office until November elections but no longer take part in government affairs, the African 15-nation bloc ECOWAS said on Saturday [June 29].”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Burundi Press Agency: “Burundi’s Electoral Commission releases the 2020 elections calendar.”
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local Assemblies - September 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country.
Peter Munaita and Fred Mwasa W, The East African: “How the return of Katumbi, Bemba will shape Congo”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Congo’s bishops said territory in the east of the country is being ceded to violent extremists, who are using the lack of government control to massacre civilians and plunder resources.”
Africa News: “DRC police clash with opposition party protesters”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Fergal Keane, BBC: “After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process.”
Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters: “Ethiopian authorities on Friday arrested the spokesman of a political party promoting the interests of the Amhara ethnic group, the party president said, in a move linked to what the government has described as a failed regional coup attempt.”
Maria Gerth-Niculescu, DW: “Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed looks increasingly vulnerable as he faces deep divisions in the ruling coalition, simmering ethnic conflicts and millions of internally displaced people.”
Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed to press ahead with his reform agenda, saying he won’t be deterred by attacks on the country’s leadership.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative - October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Katarina Hoije, Bloomberg: “The leader of Ivory Coast’s second-biggest political party is taking an anti-foreigner stance as campaigning for next year’s presidential elections gears up, sparking concerns of a return to the divisive politics that fueled almost a decade of conflict in the world’s top cocoa grower. Former President Henri Konan Bedie, who first emphasized the difference between ‘real’ Ivorians and migrants in the 1990s, accused President Alassane Ouattara’s administration of favoring members of a ‘certain ethnic group’ for public positions and allowing ‘armed foreigners’ to exploit the West African nation’s resources.”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Bishops in the Ivory Coast have warned of a new civil war in the run-up to 2020 elections, unless urgent action is taken to ease communal tensions and withdraw weapons in the West African state.”
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire’s Laurent Gbagbo, in ‘semi-freedom’, revives his old party”
Togo Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, the legislature approved a constitutional change that would allow Gnassingbé to remain president until 2030, despite protests and calls for the family to be removed from power. The opposition will participate in the June 30 local elections, both as candidates and voters. Protests are likely to heat up again as the country heads toward the 2020 presidential elections.
Emile Kouton, AFP: “Togo on Sunday held its first local elections in 32 years, during which a single family has ruled the West African nation, with most opposition parties taking part after boycotting 2018 parliamentary polls.”
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Kissima Diagana, Reuters: “Mauritania’s electoral commission declared last week that government-backed candidate Mohamed Ould Ghazouani had won the presidency with 52% of the vote. Anti-slavery campaigner Biram Dah Abeid came second with 18.58%, while Mohamed Ould Boubacar, who is backed by Mauritania’s biggest Islamist party, was third with 17.85%. Abeid, Boubacar and fifth-placed candidate Mohamed Ould Maouloud said on Wednesday they had filed an appeal with the Constitutional Council a day earlier, saying the results were not credible.”
VOA: “Mauritania’s constitutional council confirmed Mohamed Ould Ghazouani as president, amid concerns of election impropriety by opposition leaders. On Monday, the West African country’s constitutional council announced Ghazouani had won the June 22 presidential elections with 52% of the vote, rejecting a challenge by the opposition.”
Alex Thurston, World Politics Review: “It may be the first peaceful transfer of power between elected heads of state since Mauritania won its independence from France in 1960, but the victory by Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in presidential elections on June 22 really represents the latest phase of control by a ruling clique of military officers and businessmen whose influence reaches back to the 1980s. With 52 percent of the vote, Ould Ghazouani—a former defense minister and the handpicked successor of outgoing President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz—forestalled a second round, though the opposition claims the results were marred by fraud and is trying to challenge them.”
France24: “Mauritanian police raided the headquarters of two opposition parties, closing one of them amid high tension followed a disputed outcome to presidential elections, sources said Tuesday.”
Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz: “Mauritania blocked the internet over protests though just one in five people are online”
Esha Sarai, VOA: “Nearly six years after his arrest, and two years after he was legally set free, Mauritanian lawyers and international rights groups are calling for authorities to release blogger Mohamed Ould Cheikh Mkhaitir.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Africa News: “Police were deployed around the headquarters of Malawi’s Constitutional Court in Lilongwe, Wednesday, as the court examined requests for the annulment of the presidential election. According to witnesses, their deployment sought to avoid any incident following a volatile political environment since the electoral commission proclaimed President Peter Mutharika winner of the May elections. His two main rivals Lazarus Chakwera and Saulos Chilima, who came second and third respectively, reported fraud, including the use of unofficial discharge sheets, erasures and, the surprisingly high number of fluid corrector stains overloaded with strikes on the ballots.”
Nenenji Mlangeni, Maravi Post: “The Constitutional Court of five-judge panel in High in Lilongwe on Thursday accepted a request by Malawi Congress Party (MCP’s) President Lazarus Chakwera to amend his petition in the presidential elections case. Dr. Chakwera is now asking for fresh election and not a recount of the presidential vote in some areas.”
Sean Tsanzo Kampondeni, Malawi24: “Timeline of the Malawi election case….In short, the next 60 days will be a bumpy ride for Malawi, heading straight for the history books. So better put your seat belt on and keep your knees down.”
Upcoming Elections
Liberia By-Elections – July 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
When President George Weah, a former footballer, was elected in 2017, Liberia saw its first peaceful transition of power since 1944. The country holds elections to the Senate in 2020, but will be holding a Senatorial by-election on July 8.
Stephen D. Kollie, African Arguments: “It has now been almost three weeks since Liberia witnessed its biggest anti-government protests since the end of civil war in 2003. In a mass action on 7 June, thousands of people took the streets to express their frustration at poverty, rising inflation, and corruption under President George Weah.”
Abdoulaye W. Dukulé, Front Page Africa: “Liberia: High Stakes for the July 8, 2019 by-elections”
Alline Dunbar, Front Page Africa: “Female Candidates Deliberate Major Platform Issue Ahead of July By-Elections”
Democratic Republic of the Congo Local Assemblies – September 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
The DRC’s December 2018 presidential and legislative elections, which took place after multiple delays, were mired in controversy and dispute. The election commission declared opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi the winner of the presidential poll, but the Catholic Church, which deployed 40,000 election observers and is a highly trusted institution in the country, said that their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu. When Kabila’s chosen successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, was polling too poorly for Kabila to credibly rig the election for him, Kabila cut a deal with Tshisekedi. The legislative elections – also highly disputed – produced a majority for Kabila’s coalition. Major opposition figures Moïse Katumbi and Jean-Pierre Bemba were barred from the polls and spent the election cycle outside the country.
Peter Munaita and Fred Mwasa W, The East African: “How the return of Katumbi, Bemba will shape Congo”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Congo’s bishops said territory in the east of the country is being ceded to violent extremists, who are using the lack of government control to massacre civilians and plunder resources.”
Africa News: “DRC police clash with opposition party protesters”
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Over the past two years, tensions between French speakers (comprising 80 percent of the population) and English speakers have led to violence, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and over half a million internally displaced persons, plus tens of thousands of refugees. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.
Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat.
Edwin Kindzeka Moki, AP: “Gunmen have abducted the leader of Cameroon’s main opposition party, John Fru Ndi, from his residence in the English-speaking northwestern town of Bamenda. Nkedze Emilia, a senator of the Social Democratic Front party, said the armed men attacked Fru Ndi in his residence in the Ntarikon neighborhood Friday afternoon.”
Reuters: “Cameroon opposition leader released after abduction in Anglophone region”
Journal du Cameroun: “At least thirsty supporters of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement party who were detained at the Douala Central Prison have been released. The detainees who were arrested in Douala on June 1 following nationwide protests organised by the CRM were released by judges in Douala after dismissing charges against them.”
Mozambique Legislative and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
Following the last legislative elections in 2014, FRELIMO holds 144 out of 250 seats in the unicameral Assembly of the Republic, RENAMO has 89, and the center-right Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM), which broke off from RENAMO, has 17. RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win. RENAMO alleges the losses were due to fraud and irregularities. Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgencyin the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees gas wealth.
AllAfrica: “Mozambique’s main opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, has chosen two defectors from the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) as its candidates for governor in Zambezia and Tete province in the elections scheduled for 15 October. Renamo chose its candidates on Friday and Saturday for the parliamentary and provincial elections.”
Marcelino Mueia (Quelimane), DW (in Portuguese): “RENAMO announces candidates for provincial governors. The largest opposition party in Mozambique has elected figures who will run in the general election on October 15. RENAMO makes marches in several provinces and spokesman says that ‘victory’ is the watchword.”
Guinea-Bissau Presidential – November 24, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
In March 2019, Guinea-Bissau finally held long-delayed legislative elections. The ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won 47 out of 102 seats, but made deals with three smaller parties to form a coalition with 54 seats. Prone to coups (most recently in 2012), no elected leader has served a full term since independence from Portugal. The country remains in a political crisis, with President José Mário Vaz (known as Jomav) in a feud with his own party (PAIGC). Vaz plans to run for re-election. Sometimes dubbed “the world’s first narco-state,” it risks once again becoming a hub for drug traffickers.
The country had a hectic week in politics due to the president’s term ending without a government in place.
Arnaldo Viera, The East African: “Guinea Bissau has been plunged into a power vacuum after the president’s term ended on Sunday without a government in place despite the naming of Aristides Gomes as prime minister. President José Mário Vaz is now blackmailing Parliament to extend his reign until November 24 when elections are scheduled in exchange for him approving a new government to run the country.”
Alonso Soto, Bloomberg: “Guinea-Bissau’s national assembly approved a resolution to remove President Jose Mario Vaz from office and replace him with the head of the legislature, escalating a political feud that’s paralyzed the impoverished West African nation. A majority of 54 out of 102 lawmakers on Thursday voted for Cipriano Cassama to be named as interim president, according to Suzi Barbosa, a lawmaker of the country’s biggest party, known by its acronym PAIGC. Vaz, whose five-year term ended June 23, has decreed that presidential elections to be held on Nov. 24.”
AFP: “Guinea-Bissau’s President Jose Mario Vaz will remain in office until November elections but no longer take part in government affairs, the African 15-nation bloc ECOWAS said on Saturday [June 29].”
Burundi Presidential and Legislative – May 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
In 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a third term, which critics said was unconstitutional. Nkurunziza’s decision sparked a political crisis. The opposition boycotted the election. Nkurunziza won, but the election was marred by violence and a coup attempt. In 2018, Nkurunziza said he would step down in 2020. Burundi’s 12-year civil war ended in 2005, but violence and authoritarianism have been on the rise. Many Burundians are nervous about the upcoming polls.
Burundi Press Agency: “Burundi’s Electoral Commission releases the 2020 elections calendar.”
Ethiopia Parliamentary – Due May 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Following three years of protests, Ethiopia’s ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) chose reformer Abiy Ahmed as prime minister. Abiy began a historic process of democratization, including releasing political prisoners and opening up Ethiopia’s previously closed political space. However, Ethiopia’s reformers face many obstacles. Nonetheless, many Ethiopians are hopeful. However, violence could threaten Abiy’s reforms.
In the 2015 elections, the EPRDF won 100 percent of the parliamentary seats.
Fergal Keane, BBC: “After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process.”
Dawit Endeshaw, Reuters: “Ethiopian authorities on Friday arrested the spokesman of a political party promoting the interests of the Amhara ethnic group, the party president said, in a move linked to what the government has described as a failed regional coup attempt.”
Maria Gerth-Niculescu, DW: “Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed looks increasingly vulnerable as he faces deep divisions in the ruling coalition, simmering ethnic conflicts and millions of internally displaced people.”
Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg: “Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed vowed to press ahead with his reform agenda, saying he won’t be deterred by attacks on the country’s leadership.”
Côte d’Ivoire Presidential and Legislative – October 31, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Katarina Hoije, Bloomberg: “The leader of Ivory Coast’s second-biggest political party is taking an anti-foreigner stance as campaigning for next year’s presidential elections gears up, sparking concerns of a return to the divisive politics that fueled almost a decade of conflict in the world’s top cocoa grower. Former President Henri Konan Bedie, who first emphasized the difference between ‘real’ Ivorians and migrants in the 1990s, accused President Alassane Ouattara’s administration of favoring members of a ‘certain ethnic group’ for public positions and allowing ‘armed foreigners’ to exploit the West African nation’s resources.”
Catholic News Service, Crux: “Bishops in the Ivory Coast have warned of a new civil war in the run-up to 2020 elections, unless urgent action is taken to ease communal tensions and withdraw weapons in the West African state.”
Anna Sylvestre-Treiner, The Africa Report: “Côte d’Ivoire’s Laurent Gbagbo, in ‘semi-freedom’, revives his old party”
Past Elections
Togo Local – June 30, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.
In May 2019, the legislature approved a constitutional change that would allow Gnassingbé to remain president until 2030, despite protests and calls for the family to be removed from power. The opposition will participate in the June 30 local elections, both as candidates and voters. Protests are likely to heat up again as the country heads toward the 2020 presidential elections.
Emile Kouton, AFP: “Togo on Sunday held its first local elections in 32 years, during which a single family has ruled the West African nation, with most opposition parties taking part after boycotting 2018 parliamentary polls.”
Mauritania Presidential – June 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Mauritania’s incumbent president, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, came to power in a military coup in 2009 and the country is rated “not free” by Freedom House, but some hope that political space could be opening up, albeit slowly. While most believed that the ruling Union for the Republic party’s candidate, Defense Minister Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, would win (and he was indeed declared the winner), opposition candidates, including anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, participated. This contrasts with the 2014 presidential election, which the opposition boycotted. There are concerns about the electoral process and the lack of international observers.
Kissima Diagana, Reuters: “Mauritania’s electoral commission declared last week that government-backed candidate Mohamed Ould Ghazouani had won the presidency with 52% of the vote. Anti-slavery campaigner Biram Dah Abeid came second with 18.58%, while Mohamed Ould Boubacar, who is backed by Mauritania’s biggest Islamist party, was third with 17.85%. Abeid, Boubacar and fifth-placed candidate Mohamed Ould Maouloud said on Wednesday they had filed an appeal with the Constitutional Council a day earlier, saying the results were not credible.”
VOA: “Mauritania’s constitutional council confirmed Mohamed Ould Ghazouani as president, amid concerns of election impropriety by opposition leaders. On Monday, the West African country’s constitutional council announced Ghazouani had won the June 22 presidential elections with 52% of the vote, rejecting a challenge by the opposition.”
Alex Thurston, World Politics Review: “It may be the first peaceful transfer of power between elected heads of state since Mauritania won its independence from France in 1960, but the victory by Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in presidential elections on June 22 really represents the latest phase of control by a ruling clique of military officers and businessmen whose influence reaches back to the 1980s. With 52 percent of the vote, Ould Ghazouani—a former defense minister and the handpicked successor of outgoing President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz—forestalled a second round, though the opposition claims the results were marred by fraud and is trying to challenge them.”
France24: “Mauritanian police raided the headquarters of two opposition parties, closing one of them amid high tension followed a disputed outcome to presidential elections, sources said Tuesday.”
Abdi Latif Dahir, Quartz: “Mauritania blocked the internet over protests though just one in five people are online”
Esha Sarai, VOA: “Nearly six years after his arrest, and two years after he was legally set free, Mauritanian lawyers and international rights groups are calling for authorities to release blogger Mohamed Ould Cheikh Mkhaitir.”
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Africa News: “Police were deployed around the headquarters of Malawi’s Constitutional Court in Lilongwe, Wednesday, as the court examined requests for the annulment of the presidential election. According to witnesses, their deployment sought to avoid any incident following a volatile political environment since the electoral commission proclaimed President Peter Mutharika winner of the May elections. His two main rivals Lazarus Chakwera and Saulos Chilima, who came second and third respectively, reported fraud, including the use of unofficial discharge sheets, erasures and, the surprisingly high number of fluid corrector stains overloaded with strikes on the ballots.”
Nenenji Mlangeni, Maravi Post: “The Constitutional Court of five-judge panel in High in Lilongwe on Thursday accepted a request by Malawi Congress Party (MCP’s) President Lazarus Chakwera to amend his petition in the presidential elections case. Dr. Chakwera is now asking for fresh election and not a recount of the presidential vote in some areas.”
Sean Tsanzo Kampondeni, Malawi24: “Timeline of the Malawi election case….In short, the next 60 days will be a bumpy ride for Malawi, heading straight for the history books. So better put your seat belt on and keep your knees down.”
The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 3 – tentative); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Mali legislative (May 2020 – long overdue – additional delays possible); Burundi presidential and legislative (May 20); Central African Republic presidential and legislative (June 27)
Mauritanian youth protesting in 2011. Photo credit: Flickr/Jemal Oumar
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Category: This Week Tags: Burundi, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Togo