Upcoming Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Associated Press: “Guatemala’s election officials say a ‘vote-by-vote’ recount of the June 16 general elections has begun following multiple delays.”
Jack Guy, CNN: “Few politicians have a backstory like Sandra Torres, winner of the first round in Guatemala’s presidential elections earlier this month, but the former first lady is no ordinary candidate. In fact, these are no ordinary elections for Central America’s most populous nation.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Campbell Clark, Globe and Mail: “As election looms, Liberals tout a tough-guy Trudeau”
Charlie Pinkerton, iPolitics: “Liberals posted record fundraising numbers to end 2018, but trailed Conservatives by millions”
The Economist: “Justin Trudeau starts Canada’s election campaign as the underdog”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Andrés Malamud, Americas Quarterly: “Argentina Is Polarized. Or Is It?”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Argentina: can Fernández capitalise on Macri’s failings? The economic crisis has opened the door to a possible return to power for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner”
MercoPress: “Argentina lines up for the August primaries; three leading presidential tickets”
Buenos Aires Times: “As Peronists continue to poll well in local and provincial elections across Argentina, attention is now turning to their alliances at a national level. On Wednesday [June 26], Santa Fe governor-elect Omar Perotti confirmed he ‘clearly’ supported the candidacies of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for president and vice-president, respectively – otherwise known as the Fernández-Fernández ballot, or formally as Frente de Todos (Front for All).”
Gabriel Ziblat, Buenos Aires Times: “Peronists set to dominate divided Congress. While all eyes are on the presidential elections in Argentina, the race for the country’s Congress is key to understanding what policy scenarios the next government will face.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
UN News: “Security Council approves ‘historic’ political Haiti mission, ending UN peacekeeping role in the country”
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “This is the Security Council’s second transition in Haiti since peacekeepers returned in 2004 amid a bloody coup. After 13 years, a mixed legacy of stability and controversy, it ended its large multinational military presence in the country in 2017. It was succeeded by the current mission focused on justice, human rights and police development.”
Haiti Libre: “Lavalas deputies paralyze the National Assembly for several hours”
Guyana Snap Elections – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) on Monday [June 24[ gave President David Granger and Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo as well as their lawyers more time to possibly arrive at a consensus, even as the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) said elections would not be possible until after December 25.”
Starbroek News: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo yesterday maintained that elections must be held within three months in keeping with the constitution, while insisting that the national house-to-house registration exercise being demanded by government is unnecessary and a ploy to hold on to power.”
Caribbean360: “The Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), retired justice James Patterson has resigned, a week after the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) ruled that his appointment was unconstitutional.”
Americas This Week – June 29, 2019
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Last Updated: July 7, 2019 by 21votes
June 29, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Associated Press: “Guatemala’s election officials say a ‘vote-by-vote’ recount of the June 16 general elections has begun following multiple delays.”
Jack Guy, CNN: “Few politicians have a backstory like Sandra Torres, winner of the first round in Guatemala’s presidential elections earlier this month, but the former first lady is no ordinary candidate. In fact, these are no ordinary elections for Central America’s most populous nation.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Andrés Malamud, Americas Quarterly: “Argentina Is Polarized. Or Is It?”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Argentina: can Fernández capitalise on Macri’s failings? The economic crisis has opened the door to a possible return to power for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner”
MercoPress: “Argentina lines up for the August primaries; three leading presidential tickets”
Buenos Aires Times: “As Peronists continue to poll well in local and provincial elections across Argentina, attention is now turning to their alliances at a national level. On Wednesday [June 26], Santa Fe governor-elect Omar Perotti confirmed he ‘clearly’ supported the candidacies of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for president and vice-president, respectively – otherwise known as the Fernández-Fernández ballot, or formally as Frente de Todos (Front for All).”
Gabriel Ziblat, Buenos Aires Times: “Peronists set to dominate divided Congress. While all eyes are on the presidential elections in Argentina, the race for the country’s Congress is key to understanding what policy scenarios the next government will face.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Campbell Clark, Globe and Mail: “As election looms, Liberals tout a tough-guy Trudeau”
Charlie Pinkerton, iPolitics: “Liberals posted record fundraising numbers to end 2018, but trailed Conservatives by millions”
The Economist: “Justin Trudeau starts Canada’s election campaign as the underdog”
Guyana Snap Elections – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) on Monday [June 24[ gave President David Granger and Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo as well as their lawyers more time to possibly arrive at a consensus, even as the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) said elections would not be possible until after December 25.”
Starbroek News: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo yesterday maintained that elections must be held within three months in keeping with the constitution, while insisting that the national house-to-house registration exercise being demanded by government is unnecessary and a ploy to hold on to power.”
Caribbean360: “The Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), retired justice James Patterson has resigned, a week after the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) ruled that his appointment was unconstitutional.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
UN News: “Security Council approves ‘historic’ political Haiti mission, ending UN peacekeeping role in the country”
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “This is the Security Council’s second transition in Haiti since peacekeepers returned in 2004 amid a bloody coup. After 13 years, a mixed legacy of stability and controversy, it ended its large multinational military presence in the country in 2017. It was succeeded by the current mission focused on justice, human rights and police development.”
Haiti Libre: “Lavalas deputies paralyze the National Assembly for several hours”
Upcoming Elections
Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.
In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Associated Press: “Guatemala’s election officials say a ‘vote-by-vote’ recount of the June 16 general elections has begun following multiple delays.”
Jack Guy, CNN: “Few politicians have a backstory like Sandra Torres, winner of the first round in Guatemala’s presidential elections earlier this month, but the former first lady is no ordinary candidate. In fact, these are no ordinary elections for Central America’s most populous nation.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year.
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Campbell Clark, Globe and Mail: “As election looms, Liberals tout a tough-guy Trudeau”
Charlie Pinkerton, iPolitics: “Liberals posted record fundraising numbers to end 2018, but trailed Conservatives by millions”
The Economist: “Justin Trudeau starts Canada’s election campaign as the underdog”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Andrés Malamud, Americas Quarterly: “Argentina Is Polarized. Or Is It?”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Argentina: can Fernández capitalise on Macri’s failings? The economic crisis has opened the door to a possible return to power for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner”
MercoPress: “Argentina lines up for the August primaries; three leading presidential tickets”
Buenos Aires Times: “As Peronists continue to poll well in local and provincial elections across Argentina, attention is now turning to their alliances at a national level. On Wednesday [June 26], Santa Fe governor-elect Omar Perotti confirmed he ‘clearly’ supported the candidacies of Alberto Fernández and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner for president and vice-president, respectively – otherwise known as the Fernández-Fernández ballot, or formally as Frente de Todos (Front for All).”
Gabriel Ziblat, Buenos Aires Times: “Peronists set to dominate divided Congress. While all eyes are on the presidential elections in Argentina, the race for the country’s Congress is key to understanding what policy scenarios the next government will face.”
Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. The country is currently without a government as opposition lawmakers have blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister.
UN News: “Security Council approves ‘historic’ political Haiti mission, ending UN peacekeeping role in the country”
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald: “This is the Security Council’s second transition in Haiti since peacekeepers returned in 2004 amid a bloody coup. After 13 years, a mixed legacy of stability and controversy, it ended its large multinational military presence in the country in 2017. It was succeeded by the current mission focused on justice, human rights and police development.”
Haiti Libre: “Lavalas deputies paralyze the National Assembly for several hours”
Guyana Snap Elections – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “The Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) on Monday [June 24[ gave President David Granger and Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo as well as their lawyers more time to possibly arrive at a consensus, even as the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) said elections would not be possible until after December 25.”
Starbroek News: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo yesterday maintained that elections must be held within three months in keeping with the constitution, while insisting that the national house-to-house registration exercise being demanded by government is unnecessary and a ploy to hold on to power.”
Caribbean360: “The Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM), retired justice James Patterson has resigned, a week after the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) ruled that his appointment was unconstitutional.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Guatemala general second round (August 18); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Canada, Prince Edward Island province general and Northwest Territories parliamentary (on or before October 7 – exact date not set yet); Canada, Labrador and Newfoundland provincial (October 8); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
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Category: This Week Tags: Argentina, Canada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti