Africa This Week – June 10, 2019

June 10, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Togo Local - June 30, 2019

These elections are happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.

In May 2019, the legislature approved a constitutional change that would allow Gnassingbé to remain president until 2030, despite protests and calls for the family to be removed from power. The opposition will participate in the June 30 local elections, both as candidates and voters. Protests are likely to heat up again as the country heads toward the 2020 presidential elections.

In the news:

Togoweb: “Local elections: These lists invalidated by the Supreme Court” (Several opposition figures will not be able to run as candidates in the local elections)

iKnowPolitics: The government has reduced the fee that female candidates must pay, in an attempt to get more women to run for local offices.

Note: Authoritarian states frequently tout their efforts to “empower women” to soften their global image. Togo is ramping up its efforts to attract international investment through its National Development Plan (Plan National de Dévelopment). Gnassingbé was in London last week, and Togo has hired former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a consultant. Standard and Poor’s recently issued Togo a sovereign credit rating for €500 million.

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional - October 2019

Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Over the past two years, tensions between French speakers (comprising 80 percent of the population) and English speakers have led to violence, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and over half a million internally displaced persons, plus tens of thousands of refugees. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections.

Africanews: “At least 300 people were arrested in demonstrations in several cities across Cameroon on Saturday. Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC) party said its members and supporters were arrested while calling for the release of party leader Maurice Kamto and 150 of their supporters, who were imprisoned late January during protests against October 2018 elections.”

Sella Oneko, DW: “German lawmaker urges Merkel to pay more attention to Cameroon crisis”

Illaria Allegrozzi, Human Rights Watch: “Cameroon security forces have used excessive and indiscriminate force to snuff out other MRC demonstrations. And in late January, MRC leader Maurice Kamto and some of his closest allies were arrested alongside another 200 MRC members and supporters after they held country-wide protests. They remain in detention on politically motivated charges.” 

Moki Edwin Kindzeka, Voice of America: “Cameroon has increased troops around its lone oil refinery, after a weekend explosion caused a shutdown of the facility. But the government denies separatist fighters were responsible and says there will be no shortages of petroleum products.”

The Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom released their report on the 2018 presidential election.

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative and Provincial - October 15, 2019

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed the nominally communist FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win, possibly due to fraud and irregularities.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major oil companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees oil wealth.

AllAfrica: “Mozambique: Renamo Registers for General Elections….The other two major parties, the ruling Frelimo Party and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), registered last week, as did 15 other parties. Some of these are brand new, while others are organisations that appear every time there is an election, secure less than one per cent of the votes, and then go into hibernation for the next five years.”

AllAfrica: “Frelimo became the third party to register with the CNE. Om Monday, the second largest opposition force, the MDM (Mozambique Democratic Movement) registered, as did the newly formed PODEMOS (Party of Optimists of Mozambique).”

Mali Parliamentary - May 2020 (delayed multiple times)

Preparations for the upcoming elections, which have been delayed multiple times, are happening in the context of insurgency and widespread intercommunal violence. It is one of the deadliest missions for UN peacekeepers. In 2018, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (often referred to as IBK) won second term amid allegations of fraud and instances of violence. Islamist groups killed at least three election workers, burned polling stations, and intimidated voters. Regional elections were originally scheduled for December 2017 but have been delayed due to objections by insurgents. Legislative elections were originally scheduled for October 2018, and then delayed to June 2019, and now are delayed indefinitely.

Bokar Sangare, Bloomberg: “Mali adopted a law to extend the mandate of the National Assembly until May 2020, the government said in a statement following an extraordinary cabinet meeting Friday….Legislative elections were initially scheduled for Oct. 28, 2018 and then delayed several times. The current mandate of parliament ends on June 30.”

Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset: “The Malian government is now faced with two crises: resolving the conflict in the north and addressing escalating violence in the country’s center. In both regions, the government’s existing efforts to broker peace with non-state armed groups do not address the most relevant sources of violence in recent years.”

Chad Legislative and Local - 2020 (long delayed - current legislators’ terms expired in 2015)

The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed three times already. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. Chad is run by strongman Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, have viewed the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and have provided military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing political opposition.

Blaise Dariustone, DW (article in French): “The latest postponement of Chad’s legislative elections came in May….According to Chad’s government, the cost of the election, 70 billion Chadian francs, is too high. This is the third delay, and the mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015. It looks like the elections will not take place this year, contrary to the announcement Presidenti Idriss Déby made in 2018.”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis

In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Last week, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Dan Joseph, Voice of America: “The impasse over Sudan’s political future deepened [June 4] as pro-democracy activists rejected a plan by military leaders to hold elections within nine months.”

Hannah Gold, The Cut: “Sudanese Influencer Pleads for Followers to Spread Awareness of Massacre”

Fergal Keane, BBC: “Sudan crisis: Government propaganda trip goes off script”

Cameron Hudson, The Hill: “Dialogue, international diplomacy might avoid catastrophe in Sudan”

Fergal Keane, BBC: “Sudan crisis: Return of the feared Janjaweed”

Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) - May 21, 2019

Lamek Masina, Voice of America: “Malawi police used tear gas Thursday to disperse supporters of the opposition Malawi Congress Party protesting President Peter Mutharika’s re-election. On [June 4], protesters stormed government offices in the capital, Lilongwe, and accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of rigging the polls with the help of the president-appointed Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC).” 

Raheela Mahomed, Al Jazeera: “At least 18 people have been arrested since protests began in the capital, Lilongwe, on [June 4].” 

Benin Parliamentary - April 28, 2019

Benin had previously been a model for democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and massive protests prompted a harsh crackdown.  

Virgille Ahissou, Bloomberg: “Benin has placed former President Thomas Boni Yayi under virtual house arrest following his support for protests against controversial legislative elections in April, according to his lawyers.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo General - December 30, 2018

Eric Clowes, Bloomberg: “The head of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s electoral body hired a Washington-based law firm to help overturn U.S. sanctions imposed on him after last year’s disputed presidential election. The action comes after Congo’s Independent National Electoral Commission criticized the U.S. government for handing down the penalties even after the Trump administration welcomed the outcome of the vote. Opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi won the election, marking the first transfer of power by the ballot box in the cobalt-rich central African nation since independence in 1960.”

The Gambia Presidential - December 1, 2016  and Legislative - April 6, 2017

In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.

BBC: “Letter from Africa: Torture revelations transfix The Gambia”

Upcoming Elections
Togo Local – June 30, 2019
These elections are happening in the context of widespread protests that began in 2017 demanding the resignation of President Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has ruled Togo for 50 years, the longest-ruling family in Africa. In December 2018, the C14 coalition of opposition parties boycotted legislative elections and their supporters did not vote, but Gnassingbé’s party still managed to lose seats. However, a brutal crackdown has led to reduced morale for the opposition.

In May 2019, the legislature approved a constitutional change that would allow Gnassingbé to remain president until 2030, despite protests and calls for the family to be removed from power. The opposition will participate in the June 30 local elections, both as candidates and voters. Protests are likely to heat up again as the country heads toward the 2020 presidential elections.

Togoweb: “Local elections: These lists invalidated by the Supreme Court” (Several opposition figures will not be able to run as candidates in the local elections)

iKnowPolitics: The government has reduced the fee that female candidates must pay, in an attempt to get more women to run for local offices.

Note: authoritarian states frequently tout their efforts to “empower women” to soften their global image. Togo is ramping up its efforts to attract international investment through its National Development Plan (Plan National de Dévelopment). Gnassingbé was in London last week, and Togo has hired former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a consultant. Standard and Poor’s recently issued Togo a sovereign credit rating for €500 million.

https://twitter.com/AfricanBizMag/status/1138017817293402112

Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – October 2019
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Over the past two years, tensions between French speakers (comprising 80 percent of the population) and English speakers have led to violence, leading to nearly 2,000 deaths and over half a million internally displaced persons, plus tens of thousands of refugees. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions.

Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself.

Opposition parties are currently debating what to do about the upcoming municipal, legislative, and regional elections.

Africanews: “At least 300 people were arrested in demonstrations in several cities across Cameroon on Saturday. Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC) party said its members and supporters were arrested while calling for the release of party leader Maurice Kamto and 150 of their supporters, who were imprisoned late January during protests against October 2018 elections.”

Sella Oneko, DW: “German lawmaker urges Merkel to pay more attention to Cameroon crisis”

Illaria Allegrozzi, Human Rights Watch: “Cameroon security forces have used excessive and indiscriminate force to snuff out other MRC demonstrations. And in late January, MRC leader Maurice Kamto and some of his closest allies were arrested alongside another 200 MRC members and supporters after they held country-wide protests. They remain in detention on politically motivated charges.” 

Moki Edwin Kindzeka, Voice of America: “Cameroon has increased troops around its lone oil refinery, after a weekend explosion caused a shutdown of the facility. But the government denies separatist fighters were responsible and says there will be no shortages of petroleum products.”

The Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom released their report on the 2018 presidential election.

Mozambique Presidential, Legislative and Provincial – October 15, 2019
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since, but currently have a ceasefire). The Soviet Union backed the nominally communist FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

RENAMO disputed the results of the October 2018 local elections, where it received its best-ever result, winning eight of 53 municipalities, but lost several others it had expected to win, possibly due to fraud and irregularities.

Mozambique faces an Islamist insurgency in the north and devastation from two tropical cyclones in spring 2019. The country discovered natural gas in 2009, and while major oil companies are interested in prospecting, it will be a long time before Mozambique sees oil wealth.

AllAfrica: “Mozambique: Renamo Registers for General Elections….The other two major parties, the ruling Frelimo Party and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), registered last week, as did 15 other parties. Some of these are brand new, while others are organisations that appear every time there is an election, secure less than one per cent of the votes, and then go into hibernation for the next five years.”

AllAfrica: “Frelimo became the third party to register with the CNE. Om Monday, the second largest opposition force, the MDM (Mozambique Democratic Movement) registered, as did the newly formed PODEMOS (Party of Optimists of Mozambique).”

Mali Parliamentary – May 2020 (delayed multiple times)
Preparations for the upcoming elections, which have been delayed multiple times, are happening in the context of insurgency and widespread intercommunal violence. It is one of the deadliest missions for UN peacekeepers. In 2018, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (often referred to as IBK) won second term amid allegations of fraud and instances of violence. Islamist groups killed at least three election workers, burned polling stations, and intimidated voters. Regional elections were originally scheduled for December 2017 but have been delayed due to objections by insurgents. Legislative elections were originally scheduled for October 2018, and then delayed to June 2019, and now are delayed indefinitely.

Bokar Sangare, Bloomberg: “Mali adopted a law to extend the mandate of the National Assembly until May 2020, the government said in a statement following an extraordinary cabinet meeting Friday….Legislative elections were initially scheduled for Oct. 28, 2018 and then delayed several times. The current mandate of parliament ends on June 30.”

Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset: “The Malian government is now faced with two crises: resolving the conflict in the north and addressing escalating violence in the country’s center. In both regions, the government’s existing efforts to broker peace with non-state armed groups do not address the most relevant sources of violence in recent years.”

Chad Legislative and Local – 2020 (long delayed – current legislators’ terms expired in 2015)
The mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015, and the elections have been delayed three times already. In 2018, President Idriss Déby announced that the elections would happen in the “first half of 2019,” without giving a date, but in May 2019, the government delayed the elections indefinitely again, citing cost. The opposition holds that the real issue is a lack of political will. Chad is run by strongman Idriss Déby, who seized power in a rebellion in 1990, and although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Western governments, particularly France, have viewed the Déby regime as a security partner in countering terrorism in the region, and have provided military aid. Opposition activists face arrest and mistreatment. There are concerns that the regime uses counterterrorism as an excuse for suppressing political opposition.

Blaise Dariustone, DW (article in French): “The latest postponement of Chad’s legislative elections came in May….According to Chad’s government, the cost of the election, 70 billion Chadian francs, is too high. This is the third delay, and the mandate of the current National Assembly expired in 2015. It looks like the elections will not take place this year, contrary to the announcement Presidenti Idriss Déby made in 2018.”

Sudan Ongoing Crisis
In April, nonviolent demonstrations ousted Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir. Last week, around the 30th anniversary of Tiananmen Square, Sudanese troops massacred citizens protesting the regime.

Dan Joseph, Voice of America: “The impasse over Sudan’s political future deepened [June 4] as pro-democracy activists rejected a plan by military leaders to hold elections within nine months.”

Hannah Gold, The Cut: “Sudanese Influencer Pleads for Followers to Spread Awareness of Massacre”

Fergal Keane, BBC: “Sudan crisis: Government propaganda trip goes off script”

Cameron Hudson, The Hill: “Dialogue, international diplomacy might avoid catastrophe in Sudan”

Fergal Keane, BBC: “Sudan crisis: Return of the feared Janjaweed”

Past Elections
Malawi Tripartite (Presidential, Legislative, Local) – May 21, 2019
Lamek Masina, Voice of America: “Malawi police used tear gas Thursday to disperse supporters of the opposition Malawi Congress Party protesting President Peter Mutharika’s re-election. On [June 4], protesters stormed government offices in the capital, Lilongwe, and accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of rigging the polls with the help of the president-appointed Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC).” 

Raheela Mahomed, Al Jazeera: “At least 18 people have been arrested since protests began in the capital, Lilongwe, on [June 4].” 

Benin Parliamentary – April 28, 2019
Benin had previously been a model for democracy in the region, but the April 2019 parliamentary elections changed that. Opposition candidates were barred from running, and massive protests prompted a harsh crackdown.  

Virgille Ahissou, Bloomberg: “Benin has placed former President Thomas Boni Yayi under virtual house arrest following his support for protests against controversial legislative elections in April, according to his lawyers.”

Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 30, 2018
Eric Clowes, Bloomberg: “The head of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s electoral body hired a Washington-based law firm to help overturn U.S. sanctions imposed on him after last year’s disputed presidential election. The action comes after Congo’s Independent National Electoral Commission criticized the U.S. government for handing down the penalties even after the Trump administration welcomed the outcome of the vote. Opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi won the election, marking the first transfer of power by the ballot box in the cobalt-rich central African nation since independence in 1960.”

The Gambia Presidential – December 1, 2016  and Legislative – April 6, 2017
In December 2016, The Gambia began a remarkable transition to democracy. Citizens removed dictator Yahya Jammeh peacefully, via the ballot box, and began the process of establishing a free society.

BBC: “Letter from Africa: Torture revelations transfix The Gambia”

The Year Ahead: Africa
Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections); Chad legislative (originally due in 2015 but have been delayed several times – unclear when they will. actually happen); Mauritania presidential (June 22); Togo local (June 30); Botswana parliamentary (October); Cameroon parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Guinea-Bissau presidential (November 3 – tentative); Namibia presidential and legislative (November 27); Mauritius legislative (December); Senegal local (December 1); Mali legislative (May 2020 – long overdue – additional delays possible)

 

https://21votes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Mauritania.jpg


Togolese protest in Brussels in 2017 calling for President Faure Gnassingbé’s resignation. The sign says “50 years is enough! Enough of Faure.” Photo credit: Flickr/Pascal Van

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. Election dates can change – please let us know if a date has changed.

 

Comments

Share This