Upcoming Elections
Guatemala Presidential, Legislative, Local – June 16, 2019
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members. In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The remaining candidates are largely unknown and have campaigned on “family values” at a time when voters care more about corruption.
Additionally, all 158 seats in the unicameral Congress are up for election. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Fernanda Nunes, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Explainer: Guatemala’s Presidential Election”
Lucas Perelló, Global Americans: “This election reflects many of Guatemala’s challenges. Widespread corruption and an unpopular president with authoritarian tendencies have paved the way for an election marked by a crowded field of mostly unknown presidential hopefuls. After the country’s Constitutional Court ruled against the candidacies of two top contenders—ex-dictator’s daughter Zury Ríos and former Attorney General Thelma Aldana—the election shifted from a relatively safe bet to an uncertain race.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister. The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several of Canada’s provinces are also electing their provincial parliaments throughout the year.
Éric Grenier, CBC: “Minority governments another sign that Canada is in the midst of a political upheaval”
Bill Curry, Globe and Mail: “Elections Canada is launching a campaign this month that will see the independent agency pay YouTubers, musicians and other social-media stars to promote voter participation in this year’s federal election. The $650,000 campaign will target demographics with below average voter participation rates, particularly young Canadians.”
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Hackers seeking to interfere in Canada’s federal election this October want to undermine trust in voting and the democratic process rather than manipulate the result, says Canada’s chief electoral officer.”
Éric Grenier, CBC: “According to the latest Nanos Research weekly tracking poll, about 47 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Conservatives, while 45 per cent would consider voting for the Liberals. Compared to where the two parties stand among decid
ed and leaning voters, this suggests that the Conservatives are converting 76 per cent of their pool of voters into supporters. For the Liberals, that conversion rate is just 67 per cent.”
Past Elections
Mexico State and Local Elections (six states, not the whole country) – June 2, 2019
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post: “Mexico’s most powerful president in decades extended his influence as his party picked up two governorships and a slew of seats in local elections, according to results released Monday. Sunday’s elections in six states were considered a referendum on the first months in office of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist who scored a crushing victory in July and won majorities in both houses of Congress. It’s the first time since 1997 that a Mexican leader has had such a broad mandate.”
Brazil General, October 7, 2018
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Valesca Lima, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Brazil’s new leaders are challenging the tradition of participatory democracy. Here’s why.”
Americas This Week – June 8, 2019
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Last Updated: June 19, 2019 by 21votes
June 8, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Guatemala Presidential - June 16, 2019
Fernanda Nunes, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Explainer: Guatemala’s Presidential Election”
Lucas Perelló, Global Americans: “This election reflects many of Guatemala’s challenges. Widespread corruption and an unpopular president with authoritarian tendencies have paved the way for an election marked by a crowded field of mostly unknown presidential hopefuls. After the country’s Constitutional Court ruled against the candidacies of two top contenders—ex-dictator’s daughter Zury Ríos and former Attorney General Thelma Aldana—the election shifted from a relatively safe bet to an uncertain race.”
Canada General - October 21, 2019
Éric Grenier, CBC: “Minority governments another sign that Canada is in the midst of a political upheaval”
Bill Curry, Globe and Mail: “Elections Canada is launching a campaign this month that will see the independent agency pay YouTubers, musicians and other social-media stars to promote voter participation in this year’s federal election. The $650,000 campaign will target demographics with below average voter participation rates, particularly young Canadians.”
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Hackers seeking to interfere in Canada’s federal election this October want to undermine trust in voting and the democratic process rather than manipulate the result, says Canada’s chief electoral officer.”
Éric Grenier, CBC: “According to the latest Nanos Research weekly tracking poll, about 47 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Conservatives, while 45 per cent would consider voting for the Liberals. Compared to where the two parties stand among decided and leaning voters, this suggests that the Conservatives are converting 76 per cent of their pool of voters into supporters. For the Liberals, that conversion rate is just 67 per cent.”
Mexico State and Local Elections (six states, not the whole country) - June 2, 2019
Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post: “Mexico’s most powerful president in decades extended his influence as his party picked up two governorships and a slew of seats in local elections, according to results released Monday. Sunday’s elections in six states were considered a referendum on the first months in office of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist who scored a crushing victory in July and won majorities in both houses of Congress. It’s the first time since 1997 that a Mexican leader has had such a broad mandate.”
Brazil General, October 7, 2018
Valesca Lima, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Brazil’s new leaders are challenging the tradition of participatory democracy. Here’s why.”
Upcoming Elections
Guatemala Presidential, Legislative, Local – June 16, 2019
These elections are taking place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members. In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The remaining candidates are largely unknown and have campaigned on “family values” at a time when voters care more about corruption.
Additionally, all 158 seats in the unicameral Congress are up for election. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.
Fernanda Nunes, Americas Society/Council of the Americas: “Explainer: Guatemala’s Presidential Election”
Lucas Perelló, Global Americans: “This election reflects many of Guatemala’s challenges. Widespread corruption and an unpopular president with authoritarian tendencies have paved the way for an election marked by a crowded field of mostly unknown presidential hopefuls. After the country’s Constitutional Court ruled against the candidacies of two top contenders—ex-dictator’s daughter Zury Ríos and former Attorney General Thelma Aldana—the election shifted from a relatively safe bet to an uncertain race.”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister. The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several of Canada’s provinces are also electing their provincial parliaments throughout the year.
Éric Grenier, CBC: “Minority governments another sign that Canada is in the midst of a political upheaval”
Bill Curry, Globe and Mail: “Elections Canada is launching a campaign this month that will see the independent agency pay YouTubers, musicians and other social-media stars to promote voter participation in this year’s federal election. The $650,000 campaign will target demographics with below average voter participation rates, particularly young Canadians.”
Steve Scherer, Reuters: “Hackers seeking to interfere in Canada’s federal election this October want to undermine trust in voting and the democratic process rather than manipulate the result, says Canada’s chief electoral officer.”
Éric Grenier, CBC: “According to the latest Nanos Research weekly tracking poll, about 47 per cent of Canadians would consider voting for the Conservatives, while 45 per cent would consider voting for the Liberals. Compared to where the two parties stand among decid
ed and leaning voters, this suggests that the Conservatives are converting 76 per cent of their pool of voters into supporters. For the Liberals, that conversion rate is just 67 per cent.”
Past Elections
Mexico State and Local Elections (six states, not the whole country) – June 2, 2019
Left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) and his MORENA party won the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress in a watershed election in 2018, defeating Mexico’s two previously-dominant parties.
Mary Beth Sheridan, Washington Post: “Mexico’s most powerful president in decades extended his influence as his party picked up two governorships and a slew of seats in local elections, according to results released Monday. Sunday’s elections in six states were considered a referendum on the first months in office of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist who scored a crushing victory in July and won majorities in both houses of Congress. It’s the first time since 1997 that a Mexican leader has had such a broad mandate.”
Brazil General, October 7, 2018
Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country.
Valesca Lima, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Brazil’s new leaders are challenging the tradition of participatory democracy. Here’s why.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Mexico gubernatorial and local in Baja California and Puebla, local in Baja California, Durango, Aguascalientes, Tamaulipas and Quintana Roo (June 2); Guatemala general (June 16); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Canada, Prince Edward Island province general and Northwest Territories parliamentary (on or before October 7 – exact date not set yet); Canada, Labrador and Newfoundland provincial (October 8); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
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Category: This Week Tags: Brazil, Canada, Guatemala, Mexico