Middle East This Week – January 14, 2019

January 15, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Turkey Local - March 31, 2019

Reuters reports: “After a decade and a half in power and an economic boom gone sour, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party could lose control of some large cities in local elections on March 31. While Erdogan will continue to hold sweeping executive powers, a weak showing by the AKP would be a symbolic blow and illustrate how frustration over the economy has hurt a politician long seen as unbeatable.”

The opposition alleges irregularities in the voter list, and has said they they do not trust the Supreme Election Body.

Al-Monitor opines: “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan demonstrated his political skills today when he eschewed attacking the US president for threatening Turkey and changed the Syrian debate from wiping out the Kurdish militia to erecting a buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.”

Campaigning continues, with the parties making active use of social media.

Israel Snap Parliamentary - April 16, 2019

Haaretz reports: “Once Kingmakers, Israel’s Religious Parties May Face Political Extinction. As a new right wing emerges, two of Israel’s three religious parties may not make it through the next election cycle.”

The Jerusalem Post profiles Michal Zernowitski, the Labor Party’s first-ever haredi (ultra-orthodox) candidate. She argues that many haredim – especially younger haredim – do not believe that the haredi parties represent them, and want greater integration into Israeli society.

Haaretz has a handy guide to the technical aspects of the election process, and the rules that govern candidate selection, voting, counting, and government formation.

The Economist predicts a victory for Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, albeit an unpopular victory.

Libya - by June 2019

Reuters reports: “Libya should press ahead with national elections even if voters reject a draft constitution in a planned referendum, the head of the country’s internationally recognized parliament said. The United Nations and Western powers hope Libya will hold its national elections by June after holding a referendum on a constitutional framework to chart a way out of the conflict, which stems from the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.”

Palestinian Authority - By July 2019

Al-Monitor: “Will Abbas go through with legislative elections without Hamas?” Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, announced legislative elections in December, the first since 2006. Hamas says they will not participate.

Elliott Abrams at the Council on Foreign Relations writes: “Abbas Celebrates 14th Anniversary of His Four-Year Term.”

Tunisia Parliamentary and Presidential - Fall 2019

Youssef Cherif, head of Columbia Global Centers Tunis, writes: “Less than a year before the next general election, scheduled for late 2019, Tunisia is again in crisis. The Arab world’s most promising democratic experiment can still avert a political meltdown, but it needs help.”

Afghanistan Parliamentary - October 2018

TOLOnews reports: “The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) on Monday announced the preliminary results for Kabul parliamentary elections three months after they were held in the country.” Tensions remain high with the potential American withdrawal and delayed presidential elections currently scheduled for July.

Upcoming Elections
On deck: Egypt local (planned for the first half of 2019 – delays possible); Libya (various – international community wants them to happen in 2019); Turkey local (March 31); Israel snap parliamentary (April 9); Algeria presidential (April 14); Qatar municipal (May – councils are advisory only with no actual legislative power); Palestinian Authority (supposed to happen within six months, but could be delayed); Afghanistan presidential (set for July 20 – has already been delayed and could be again); Oman consultative assembly (October – assembly is advisory only with no actual legislative power); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October and November).

Turkey Local – March 31, 2019
Reuters reports: “After a decade and a half in power and an economic boom gone sour, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party could lose control of some large cities in local elections on March 31. While Erdogan will continue to hold sweeping executive powers, a weak showing by the AKP would be a symbolic blow and illustrate how frustration over the economy has hurt a politician long seen as unbeatable.”

The opposition alleges irregularities in the voter list, and has said they they do not trust the Supreme Election Body.

Al-Monitor opines: “President Recep Tayyip Erdogan demonstrated his political skills today when he eschewed attacking the US president for threatening Turkey and changed the Syrian debate from wiping out the Kurdish militia to erecting a buffer zone along the Turkish-Syrian border.”

Campaigning continues, with the parties making active use of social media.

Israel Snap Parliamentary – April 16, 2019
Haaretz: “Once Kingmakers, Israel’s Religious Parties May Face Political Extinction. As a new right wing emerges, two of Israel’s three religious parties may not make it through the next election cycle.”

The Jerusalem Post profiles Michal Zernowitski, the Labor Party’s first-ever haredi (ultra-orthodox) candidate. She argues that many haredim – especially younger haredim – do not believe that the haredi parties represent them, and want greater integration into Israeli society.

Haaretz has a handy guide to the technical aspects of the election process, and the rules that govern candidate selection, voting, counting, and government formation.

The Economist predicts a victory for Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party, albeit an unpopular victory.

Libya – by June 2019
Reuters reports: “Libya should press ahead with national elections even if voters reject a draft constitution in a planned referendum, the head of the country’s internationally recognized parliament said. The United Nations and Western powers hope Libya will hold its national elections by June after holding a referendum on a constitutional framework to chart a way out of the conflict, which stems from the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.”

Palestinian Authority – By July 2019
Al-Monitor: “Will Abbas go through with legislative elections without Hamas?” Mahmoud Abbas, head of the Palestinian Authority, announced legislative elections in December, the first since 2006. Hamas says they will not participate.

Elliott Abrams at the Council on Foreign Relations writes: “Abbas Celebrates 14th Anniversary of His Four-Year Term.”

Tunisia Parliamentary and Presidential – Fall 2019
Youssef Cherif, head of Columbia Global Centers Tunis, writes: “Less than a year before the next general election, scheduled for late 2019, Tunisia is again in crisis. The Arab world’s most promising democratic experiment can still avert a political meltdown, but it needs help.”

Past Elections
Afghanistan Parliamentary – October 2018
TOLOnews reports: “The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan (IEC) on Monday announced the preliminary results for Kabul parliamentary elections three months after they were held in the country.” Tensions remain high with the potential American withdrawal and delayed presidential elections currently scheduled for July.

Istanbul City Hall. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Darwinek

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