Europe This Week – January 15, 2019

January 16, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Estonia Parliamentary - March 3, 2019

ERR News, Estonia’s public broadcaster, reports: “Estonia’s parties as well as candidates are ‘jittery’ in the ongoing Riigikogu election campaign, chairwomen and chairmen of the main political parties find. Several of them are saying that while plenty of the issues are worth a broader debate, the competition generally refuses to engage.”

Observers have been following the rise of the right-wing populist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), which is currently polling in third place. The current governing Centre Party and main opposition Reform Party, as well as many smaller parties, have said they would not govern in coalition with EKRE. Social Democratic Party (SDE) chairman Jevgeni Ossinovski explained his party’s decision: “For the first time in 27 years, the basic principles of our free society are under attack.”

EKRE Chair Mart Helme has a number of controversial views, including potentially pulling Estonia out of the European Union. The chair of EKRE’s youth wing admitted to using fake social media accounts and writing an op-ed under a pseudonym.

Lithuania Municipal - March 3, 2019

Baltic Times reports: “14 members of the Lithuanian parliament will run for mayors during the direct mayoral elections in March, with the majority of them representing the ruling Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union and the Liberal Movement, Laura Matjosaityte, chair of the Central Electoral Commission, has confirmed it to BNS Lithuania.”

Macedonia Presidential - April 2019

Balkan Insight reports: “The main ruling and opposition parties in Macedonia are both tempted by the prospect of early legislative elections – but for very different reasons.”

Ireland, Local and European Parliament - May 24, 2019

The Journal: “Varadkar says bumper day of elections and referendums will be among ‘busiest days in Irish politics.’”

Germany European Parliament - May 26, 2019

Germany’s far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party voted over the weekend to call for “Dexit,” a German exit from the EU. Politico’s chief Europe correspondent, Matthew Karnitschnig, thinks that the move could actually strengthen support for the EU and cause AfD to have a worse electoral result because most Germans support EU membership.

AfD is seeing even more fracture, following the 2017 departure of Frauke Petry, who urged a more pragmatic line with a view to eventually joining government. Now, more radical elements are breaking off. André Poggeburg, an AfD leader from Saxony-Anhalt, last week launched the Aufbruch deutscher Patrioten (“Surge of German Patriots”), using a blue cornflower as its logo. The blue cornflower was a symbol of the Nazis in Austria before the Anschluss.

AfD has been placed under surveillance by the BvD, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. BvD chief Thomas Haldenwang stated: “The BfV has initial indications that the AfD’s policies are against the democratic constitutional order.”

France, European Parliament - May 26, 2019

John Lichfield, former editor of the Independent and its longtime Paris correspondent, examines the Yellow Vest movement and what its various factions want. Some from the movement are forming Les Emergents, a political party hoping to run candidates in the upcoming European elections.

French president Emmanuel Macron launched Frances’s Great Debate in response, which includes a series of meetings organized by mayors and any interested individual, as well as an online consultation forum. Macron launched the initiative from Normandy, a region that has been a hotbed of Yellow Vest activity.

Marine Le Pen has announced her Rassemblement National party list for the elections. Heading the list is 23-year-old Le Pen loyalist Jordan Bardella, and includes Thierry Mariani, a loud-and-proud Kremlin cheerleader.

Poland, European Parliament - May 26, 2019 and Parliamentary, November 2019

Gdańsk mayor Paweł Adamowicz was murdered while speaking on stage at an event on Sunday, January 13. Adamowicz, a member of the center-right Civic Platform party, had been a long-standing critic of the ruling conservative Law and Justice party. He had been active in Poland’s democracy movement beginning in 1988, and had worked for democratization across Europe, particularly in Ukraine.

Central European University professor Maciej Kisilowski warns that Law and Justice could use the murder as a pretext to crack down further on Poland’s democratic institutions.

Greece Parliamentary - October 2019 (but snap elections possible)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras survived a no-confidence vote by the skin of his teeth, with 151 out of 300 members of parliament voting to uphold his government. The vote came as a result of the coalition’s junior partner, the Independent Greeks, pulling out due to their objection to an agreement with neighboring Macedonia that would allow the latter to join NATO and the EU. Macedonia’s parliament voted last week to back the deal.

Croatia, European Parliament - May 26, 2019 and Presidential - December 2019

Robin-Ivan Capar at the European Council on Foreign Relations writes: “The collapse of the left and the rise of eurosceptisism have changed the Croatian political landscape ahead of the 2019 European Parliament elections.”

Serbia Parliamentary - Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)

Vladimir Putin plans to visit Serbia this week, and tabloids predict that 70,000 people will turn out to greet him. This comes amid weeks of thousands of Serbs coming out to protest Alexander Vucic, Serbia’s beleaguered president. Putin is the most popular foreign politician in Serbia. Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic is preparing some songs to sing at the meeting. Literally.

Spain, Andalusia Regional - December 2018

This week, Andalusia’s new government takes office, ending decades of Socialist government. The conservative Popular Party will govern in alliance with the liberal Ciudadanos, with support from Vox, the far-right populist party. The Andalusia elections mark the first time a far-right party has won seats in a Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy.

Bosnia and Herzegovina General - October 2018

Balkan Insight reports: “Bosnia starts 2019 with a major government crisis, political tensions and blocked reforms – which will further slow the country’s path towards EU membership.” 

Riada Ašimović Akyol on Bosnia’s example of liberal political Islam: “What is too little noticed, however, is that a tolerant European Islam has already existed for centuries—on the southeastern part of the continent, where Bosnian Muslims, Albanians, Turks, and others see themselves as fully Muslim and fully European. A 2013 Pew Research Center study shows that they’re among the most liberal Muslims in the world.”

Hungary Parliamentary - April 2018

From the London School of Economics’ EUROPP blog: “Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, is often accused of promoting a form of ‘illiberal democracy’, where governance is rooted in the popular support of a majority of the country’s citizens, but without a strong guarantee of minority rights and the rule of law. Lise Esther Herman argues that this criticism, which has been put forward by many of Orbán’s opponents, overlooks that it is not only liberal principles that are being trampled on in Hungary, but also the notion of popular sovereignty itself.”

Upcoming Elections
On deck: Italy, Sardinia regional (February 24); Andorra parliamentary (March); Estonia parliamentary (March 3); Lithuania municipal (March 3); Slovakia presidential (March 16); Netherlands provincial councils, island councils, and water boards (March 20); Macedonia presidential (April); Finland parliamentary (April 14); United Kingdom local (May 2); Lithuania presidential (May 12)

European Parliament (May 23-26), and coinciding with those elections: Ireland local (May 24); Malta parliamentary (May 25); Belgium regional and parliamentary (May 26); Germany, Baden-Würtemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia Municipal, Bremen State (May 26); Greece local (May 26); Italy, nationwide local and Basilicata regional (May 26); Spainregional in Aragon, Asturias, Balearic Islands, Canaries, Cantabria, Castilia-Leon, Castilia-Manchego, Extremadura, Madrid, Murcia, Navarra, Rioja, Valencia, and nationwide local (May 26)

Denmark parliamentary (on or before June 17); Albania local (June 30); Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony state (September 1); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Greece parliamentary (October but snap possible); Hungary local (October);  Switzerland Federal Assembly (October); Poland parliamentary (November); Croatia presidential (December)

Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
ERR News, Estonia’s public broadcaster, reports: “Estonia’s parties as well as candidates are ‘jittery’ in the ongoing Riigikogu election campaign, chairwomen and chairmen of the main political parties find. Several of them are saying that while plenty of the issues are worth a broader debate, the competition generally refuses to engage.”

Observers have been following the rise of the right-wing populist Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), which is currently polling in third place. The current governing Centre Party and main opposition Reform Party, as well as many smaller parties, have said they would not govern in coalition with EKRE. Social Democratic Party (SDE) chairman Jevgeni Ossinovski explained his party’s decision: “For the first time in 27 years, the basic principles of our free society are under attack.”

EKRE Chair Mart Helme has a number of controversial views, including potentially pulling Estonia out of the European Union. The chair of EKRE’s youth wing admitted to using fake social media accounts and writing an op-ed under a pseudonym.

Lithuania Municipal – March 3, 2019
Baltic Times reports: “14 members of the Lithuanian parliament will run for mayors during the direct mayoral elections in March, with the majority of them representing the ruling Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union and the Liberal Movement, Laura Matjosaityte, chair of the Central Electoral Commission, has confirmed it to BNS Lithuania.”

Macedonia Presidential – April 2019
Balkan Insight reports: “The main ruling and opposition parties in Macedonia are both tempted by the prospect of early legislative elections – but for very different reasons.”

Ireland, Local and European Parliament – May 24, 2019
The Journal: “Varadkar says bumper day of elections and referendums will be among ‘busiest days in Irish politics.’”

Germany European Parliament – May 26, 2019
Germany’s far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party voted over the weekend to call for “Dexit,” a German exit from the EU. Politico’s chief Europe correspondent, Matthew Karnitschnig, thinks that the move could actually strengthen support for the EU and cause AfD to have a worse electoral result because most Germans support EU membership.

AfD is seeing even more fracture, following the 2017 departure of Frauke Petry, who urged a more pragmatic line with a view to eventually joining government. Now, more radical elements are breaking off. André Poggeburg, an AfD leader from Saxony-Anhalt, last week launched the Aufbruch deutscher Patrioten (“Surge of German Patriots”), using a blue cornflower as its logo. The blue cornflower was a symbol of the Nazis in Austria before the Anschluss.

AfD has been placed under surveillance by the BvD, Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. BvD chief Thomas Haldenwang stated: “The BfV has initial indications that the AfD’s policies are against the democratic constitutional order.”

France, European Parliament – May 26, 2019
John Lichfield, former editor of the Independent and its longtime Paris correspondent, examines the Yellow Vest movement and what its various factions want. Some from the movement are forming Les Emergents, a political party hoping to run candidates in the upcoming European elections.

French president Emmanuel Macron launched Frances’s Great Debate in response, which includes a series of meetings organized by mayors and any interested individual, as well as an online consultation forum. Macron launched the initiative from Normandy, a region that has been a hotbed of Yellow Vest activity.

Marine Le Pen has announced her Rassemblement National party list for the elections. Heading the list is 23-year-old Le Pen loyalist Jordan Bardella, and includes Thierry Mariani, a loud-and-proud Kremlin cheerleader.

Poland, European Parliament – May 26, 2019 and Parliamentary, November 2019
Gdańsk mayor Paweł Adamowicz was murdered while speaking on stage at an event on Sunday, January 13. Adamowicz, a member of the center-right Civic Platform party, had been a long-standing critic of the ruling conservative Law and Justice party. He had been active in Poland’s democracy movement beginning in 1988, and had worked for democratization across Europe, particularly in Ukraine.

Central European University professor Maciej Kisilowski warns that Law and Justice could use the murder as a pretext to crack down further on Poland’s democratic institutions.

Greece Parliamentary – October 2019 (but snap elections possible)
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras survived a no-confidence vote by the skin of his teeth, with 151 out of 300 members of parliament voting to uphold his government. The vote came as a result of the coalition’s junior partner, the Independent Greeks, pulling out due to their objection to an agreement with neighboring Macedonia that would allow the latter to join NATO and the EU. Macedonia’s parliament voted last week to back the deal.

Croatia, European Parliament – May 26, 2019 and Presidential – December 2019
Robin-Ivan Capar at the European Council on Foreign Relations writes: “The collapse of the left and the rise of eurosceptisism have changed the Croatian political landscape ahead of the 2019 European Parliament elections.”

Serbia Parliamentary – Due April 2020 (snap possible) and Presidential (due 2022, snap possible)
Vladimir Putin plans to visit Serbia this week, and tabloids predict that 70,000 people will turn out to greet him. This comes amid weeks of thousands of Serbs coming out to protest Alexander Vucic, Serbia’s beleaguered president. Putin is the most popular foreign politician in Serbia. Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic is preparing some songs to sing at the meeting. Literally.

Past Elections
Spain, Andalusia Regional – December 2018
This week, Andalusia’s new government takes office, ending decades of Socialist government. The conservative Popular Party will govern in alliance with the liberal Ciudadanos, with support from Vox, the far-right populist party. The Andalusia elections mark the first time a far-right party has won seats in a Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy.

Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 2018
Balkan Insight reports: “Bosnia starts 2019 with a major government crisis, political tensions and blocked reforms – which will further slow the country’s path towards EU membership.”

Riada Ašimović Akyol on Bosnia’s example of liberal political Islam: “What is too little noticed, however, is that a tolerant European Islam has already existed for centuries—on the southeastern part of the continent, where Bosnian Muslims, Albanians, Turks, and others see themselves as fully Muslim and fully European. A 2013 Pew Research Center study shows that they’re among the most liberal Muslims in the world.”

Hungary Parliamentary – April 2018

From the London School of Economics’ EUROPP blog: “Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, is often accused of promoting a form of ‘illiberal democracy’, where governance is rooted in the popular support of a majority of the country’s citizens, but without a strong guarantee of minority rights and the rule of law. Lise Esther Herman argues that this criticism, which has been put forward by many of Orbán’s opponents, overlooks that it is not only liberal principles that are being trampled on in Hungary, but also the notion of popular sovereignty itself.”


Yellow Vest demonstrators in France. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Obier

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