Middle East This Week – June 18, 2019

June 18, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after the opposition won by a small margin. Istanbul will go to the polls again on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. Erdogan got his political start as mayor of Istanbul and is thus very invested in that city. The decision to hold a new election has been widely criticized both in Turkey (including by some former high-ranking officials from AKP) and internationally. The election is happening in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, and a poor result for AKP could spark a crisis of legitimacy.

Cagan Koc and Tugce Ozsoy, Bloomberg: “The top two candidates to be Istanbul’s mayor faced off in the nation’s first televised election debate in 17 years on Sunday, trading charges over the outcome of an earlier vote and offering different approaches to economic growth.”

Daniel Bellut, DW: “Istanbul mayoral election centers on fight against corruption: Turkey’s ruling party has been accused of using Istanbul city funds to benefit business contacts and the president’s family. Now an opposition candidate for mayor is vowing to put an end to the nepotism ― if he can win.”

Ezel Sahinkaya, Voice of America: “Analysts Skeptical of Turkey’s Vow to Protect Free Speech”

Algeria Presidential - Scheduled for July 4, but cancelled and no new date set (ongoing crisis)

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protesters want assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Associated Press: “Algeria’s powerful army chief is stressing the need for political dialogue that would lead to a presidential election, as a people’s revolt for democracy remains at an impasse with the government.”

Al Jazeera: “Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Algeria‘s capital for the 17th straight week, demanding the removal of the ruling elite and prosecution of former officials linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.”

Hamid Ould Ahmed, Reuters: “The demonstrators are pushing for radical change and seeking the departure of senior figures, including politicians and businessmen, who have governed the North African country since independence from France in 1962.”

Israel Snap Parliamentary - September 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud was unable to form a coalition after April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the Israeli Defense Forces. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges.

Haaretz: “Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman said Saturday evening that his party intends to promote a unity government with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan, in order to exclude the ultra-Orthodox parties. In an interview with Channel 13, he said: ‘We will aim for a government with Likud and with Kahol Lavan, and that will be an emergency government, a national-liberal government.’”

Yossi Beilin, Al-Monitor: “Elections expose the Pandora’s box of Israel’s religious right”

Mark Weiss, Jerusalem Post: “Political realignments expected in run-up to September Israel elections.”

Tunisia Parliamentary - October 6, 2019 and Presidential - November 17, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to  “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the two secularist parties and Ennadha.

Tarek Amara, Reuters: “Tunisia’s parliament passed an amendment to its electoral law on Tuesday that would bar businessman Nabil Karoui, owner of a private TV station critical of the government, from running for president in a vote expected later this year. The amendment says that Tunisia’s elections commission must reject candidates who benefit from “charitable associations” or foreign funding during the year before an election.”

Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “Tunisia 2019’s Elections: Is It Time to Negotiate or to Rehabilitate Democracy?”

Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “Will Tunisian prime minister resign or run for president?”

Iran Parliamentary - February 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic

Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services.

Rohollah Faghihi, Al-Monitor: “Iran’s Reformists teetering on electoral boycott as polls approach”

Borzou Dargahi, The Atlantic Council’s Iran Source: “A Decade After Iran’s Green Movement, Some Lessons”

Iraq Local - April 20, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Hiwa Shilani, Kurdistan24: “Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced on Monday that provincial elections will be held across the country on April 20, 2020, the second time the date has been changed this year.”

Libya Ongoing Crisis

Freedom House Rating: Not Free Not Free Government Type: In Transition

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections by June 2019. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Al Jazeera: “Libya’s Fayez al-Sarraj calls for elections in 2019 to end war. Head of UN-supported government proposes presidential and parliamentary elections to end Libya’s long-running conflict.”

Associated Press: “Libya is divided between the weak government of al-Sarraj in the west, and Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, whose self-styled Libyan National Army holds the east and much of the south. Hifter opened a military offensive on the capital in early April, advancing on the city’s southern outskirts and clashing with militias loosely affiliated with the U.N.-recognized government.”

Ulf Laessing, Reuters: “Libya PM Serraj will not sit down with rival Haftar to end war”

George Mikhail, Al-Monitor: “Why interim government supports Hifter in Libya”

Egypt Local - Due 2019 (delays possible) and Presidential - 2024

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Thanassis Cambanis, The Atlantic: “Egypt’s Only Democratic Leader Helped Kill Its Democracy: Mohamed Morsi, who died yesterday, embodied the hope and flaws of Egypt’s revolution.”

Mai El-Sadany, Lawfare: “Egypt’s Constitutional Amendments Further the Decay of State Institutions”

Upcoming Elections
Turkey, Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run, June 23, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free (downgraded from Party Free in 2018) – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of the Istanbul mayoral election after the opposition won by a small margin. Istanbul will go to the polls again on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. Erdogan got his political start as mayor of Istanbul and is thus very invested in that city. The decision to hold a new election has been widely criticized both in Turkey (including by some former high-ranking officials from AKP) and internationally. The election is happening in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, and a poor result for AKP could spark a crisis of legitimacy.

Cagan Koc and Tugce Ozsoy, Bloomberg: “The top two candidates to be Istanbul’s mayor faced off in the nation’s first televised election debate in 17 years on Sunday, trading charges over the outcome of an earlier vote and offering different approaches to economic growth.”

Daniel Bellut, DW: “Istanbul mayoral election centers on fight against corruption: Turkey’s ruling party has been accused of using Istanbul city funds to benefit business contacts and the president’s family. Now an opposition candidate for mayor is vowing to put an end to the nepotism ― if he can win.”

Ezel Sahinkaya, Voice of America: “Analysts Skeptical of Turkey’s Vow to Protect Free Speech”

Algeria Presidential – Scheduled for July 4, but cancelled and no new date set (ongoing crisis)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date. Protesters want assurances that any new elections will be free and fair.

Associated Press: “Algeria’s powerful army chief is stressing the need for political dialogue that would lead to a presidential election, as a people’s revolt for democracy remains at an impasse with the government.”

Al Jazeera: “Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Algeria‘s capital for the 17th straight week, demanding the removal of the ruling elite and prosecution of former officials linked to former President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.”

Hamid Ould Ahmed, Reuters: “The demonstrators are pushing for radical change and seeking the departure of senior figures, including politicians and businessmen, who have governed the North African country since independence from France in 1962.”

Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy

Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud was unable to form a coalition after April’s elections. While parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz, coalition talks collapsed over the issue of drafting ultra-Orthodox into the Israeli Defense Forces. One of Likud’s coalition partners, Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, supported conscription – and refused to budge – while religious parties adamantly opposed it. Netanyahu dissolved the Knesset and called for new elections rather than giving Gantz the chance to try to form a government. Additionally, Netanyahu faces corruption charges.

Haaretz: “Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman said Saturday evening that his party intends to promote a unity government with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and Benny Gantz’s Kahol Lavan, in order to exclude the ultra-Orthodox parties. In an interview with Channel 13, he said: ‘We will aim for a government with Likud and with Kahol Lavan, and that will be an emergency government, a national-liberal government.’”

Yossi Beilin, Al-Monitor: “Elections expose the Pandora’s box of Israel’s religious right”

Mark Weiss, Jerusalem Post: “Political realignments expected in run-up to September Israel elections.”

Tunisia Parliamentary – October 6, 2019 and Presidential – November 17, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and this year, the country will hold the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ennadha, which presents itself as a moderate, pro-democracy Islamist party, won the first post-Ben Ali elections, but in the 2014 parliamentary elections, the secularist Nidaa Tounes won the most seats. In 2018, Tunisia held long-delayed municipal elections, which saw independent candidates win the most seats, followed by Ennadha. President Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes, who became Tunisia’s first democratically-elected president in 2014, has said he will not seek a second term this year, even though the constitution allows it, saying it was time to  “open the door to the youth” (Essebsi is 92). Prime Minister Youssef Chahed broke off from Nidaa Tounes to form Tahya Tounes, another secularist party, and it looks to be a close contest between the two secularist parties and Ennadha.

Tarek Amara, Reuters: “Tunisia’s parliament passed an amendment to its electoral law on Tuesday that would bar businessman Nabil Karoui, owner of a private TV station critical of the government, from running for president in a vote expected later this year. The amendment says that Tunisia’s elections commission must reject candidates who benefit from “charitable associations” or foreign funding during the year before an election.”

Haykel Ben Mahfoudh, Atlantic Council’s MENASource: “Tunisia 2019’s Elections: Is It Time to Negotiate or to Rehabilitate Democracy?”

Amel al-Hilali, Al-Monitor: “Will Tunisian prime minister resign or run for president?”

Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Theocratic Republic

Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services.

Rohollah Faghihi, Al-Monitor: “Iran’s Reformists teetering on electoral boycott as polls approach”

Borzou Dargahi, The Atlantic Council’s Iran Source: “A Decade After Iran’s Green Movement, Some Lessons”

Iraq Local – April 20, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic

Hiwa Shilani, Kurdistan24: “Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced on Monday that provincial elections will be held across the country on April 20, 2020, the second time the date has been changed this year.”

Libya Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free Not Free Government Type: In Transition

Libya remains in a civil war. The international community wants Libya to hold presidential or parliamentary elections by June 2019. Unclear when the elections will actually happen.

Al Jazeera: “Libya’s Fayez al-Sarraj calls for elections in 2019 to end war. Head of UN-supported government proposes presidential and parliamentary elections to end Libya’s long-running conflict.”

Associated Press: “Libya is divided between the weak government of al-Sarraj in the west, and Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter, whose self-styled Libyan National Army holds the east and much of the south. Hifter opened a military offensive on the capital in early April, advancing on the city’s southern outskirts and clashing with militias loosely affiliated with the U.N.-recognized government.”

Ulf Laessing, Reuters: “Libya PM Serraj will not sit down with rival Haftar to end war”

George Mikhail, Al-Monitor: “Why interim government supports Hifter in Libya”

Egypt Local – Due 2019 (delays possible) and Presidential – 2024
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic

Thanassis Cambanis, The Atlantic: “Egypt’s Only Democratic Leader Helped Kill Its Democracy: Mohamed Morsi, who died yesterday, embodied the hope and flaws of Egypt’s revolution.”

Mai El-Sadany, Lawfare: “Egypt’s Constitutional Amendments Further the Decay of State Institutions”

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (planned for the first half of 2019 – delays possible); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections by June – delays highly likely); Turkey Istanbul mayoral re-run (June 23); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Oman consultative assembly (October – assembly is advisory only with no actual legislative power); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October 6 and November 17); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Iraq provincial (April 20, 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)


Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first and only democratically-elected president who sadly short-circuited Egypt’s transition to democracy with his autocratic tendencies, died this week. Photo credit: Flickr/Jonathan Rashad

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

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