Upcoming Elections
Turkey Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run – June 23, 2019
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of some of the contests, most notably the Istanbul mayoral election after the opposition won by a small margin. Istanbul will go to the polls again on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. Erdogan got his political start as mayor of Istanbul and is thus very invested in that city. The decision to hold a new election has been widely criticized both in Turkey (including by some former high-ranking officials from AKP) and internationally. The election is happening in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, and a poor result for AKP could spark a crisis of legitimacy.
Thomas Phillips, Open Democracy: “Turkey’s local elections were not free or fair. If Turkey can hang on to the remaining threads of its democracy and the fractured political opposition can organise itself effectively, it might not bode well for the future of president Erdogan and his ruling party.”
Ekrem Imamoglu (mayor-elect of Istanbul; running again because the government invalidated the result), Washington Post: “How I won the race for mayor of Istanbul — and how I’ll win again”
Reuters: “Mayoral rivals to hold Turkey’s first TV debate in nearly two decades”
The Economist: “Turkey’s President Erdogan may face a mutiny in his own party. Former bigwigs in the ruling party are said to be planning a new one”
Stratfor: “The AKP’s Thirst for Power Risks Leaving Turkey High and Dry”
Ece Temelkuran, Washington Post: “Think autocracy is ‘impossible’ here? Look at Turkey.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a coalition after April’s elections. Parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz. Netanyahu faces possible corruption charges.
Loveday Morris and Miriam Berger, Washington Post: “How the battle of bra-baring waitresses and ultrareligious protesters explains Israel’s political crisis”
Danny Zaken, Al-Monitor: “Israel’s religious right plays the merger game”
Michael Freedman, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Repeat elections in Israel may not be enough to overcome religious divisions”
Dov Waxman, Forward: “Israel’s Democracy Is On The Ballot In The Upcoming Elections”
Sam Sokol, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Who is Avigdor Liberman, and why did he force new elections in Israel?”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Labor Chief Gabbay Announces He Won’t Seek Reelection. Gabbay led the party through a stinging defeat in the April 9 election, and came under criticism for considering to join Netanyahu’s government despite vows he wouldn’t”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “An Election Rerun Shows Why Nothing Is Normal in Israeli Politics Anymore”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, elections that were not particularly competently run. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations with the Taliban.
TOLO News: “A member of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on Sunday confirmed shortcoming in public awareness campaign ahead of September presidential elections in Afghanistan, saying that the “inattention” could be a major defect. Sources have said that at least $23 million has been allocated for public awareness campaign on elections.”
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date.
France24: “On Thursday [June 6], interim President Abdelkader Bensalah called for all parties to launch an ‘inclusive dialogue’ to prepare for presidential elections, following the constitutional council’s scrapping of a vote set for July 4. Bensalah is leading the transition as upper house speaker. He had initially been elected by parliament for 90 days until elections planned for July 4. No new date has been set, to the anger of protesters.”
Simon Speakman Cordall, Al-Monitor: “‘The protesters welcome the cancellation of the elections, not necessarily the extension,’ said Sharan Grewal, of the Brookings Institute. ‘Their argument is that they do not want elections if they are run by the Bouteflika regime with no guarantees that they will be free and fair. Whether that occurs July 4th or at some later date, that is unacceptable.’”
Al Jazeera: “Thousands of people have gathered in the Algerian capital calling on interim President Abdelkader Bensalah to quit after he vowed to stay in power until a new head of state was elected. Carrying banners reading ‘You all go’ and ‘We need new figures,’ protesters packed central Algiers on Friday for the 16th consecutive week demanding the removal of the ruling elite.”
Heba Saleh, Financial Times: “As Sudan descends into violence, Algeria’s spring lives on”
Kilian Clarke, Foreign Affairs: “What Algeria and Sudan Can Learn From Egypt”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Special Report: The Supreme Leader’s Hidden Administration”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by June 2019 (on hold indefinitely)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006, which is the most recent election of any sort for the Palestinian Authority. Hamas won the 2006 elections in a landslide. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a multifaceted conflict among Palestinian stakeholders.
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “A coalition of 70 nongovernmental organizations is monitoring the performance of the new Palestinian government to gauge its social accountability in the absence of a legislative council playing this role. The Palestinian Constitutional Court in Ramallah decided in December to disband the Palestinian Legislative Council. Now, the Palestinian Consultative Staff for Developing NGOs (PCS) — an independent civil association comprising 70 civil society organizations — has stepped up with a program dubbed ‘Accountability Development.'”
Middle East This Week – June 11, 2019
Leave a Comment
Last Updated: June 20, 2019 by 21votes
June 11, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.
Turkey Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run - June 23, 2019
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of some of the contests, most notably the Istanbul mayoral election after the opposition won by a small margin. Istanbul will go to the polls again on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. Erdogan got his political start as mayor of Istanbul and is thus very invested in that city. The decision to hold a new election has been widely criticized both in Turkey (including by some former high-ranking officials from AKP) and internationally. The election is happening in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, and a poor result for AKP could spark a crisis of legitimacy.
Thomas Phillips, Open Democracy: “Turkey’s local elections were not free or fair. If Turkey can hang on to the remaining threads of its democracy and the fractured political opposition can organise itself effectively, it might not bode well for the future of president Erdogan and his ruling party.”
Ekrem Imamoglu (mayor-elect of Istanbul; running again because the government invalidated the result), Washington Post: “How I won the race for mayor of Istanbul — and how I’ll win again”
Reuters: “Mayoral rivals to hold Turkey’s first TV debate in nearly two decades”
The Economist: “Turkey’s President Erdogan may face a mutiny in his own party. Former bigwigs in the ruling party are said to be planning a new one”
Stratfor: “The AKP’s Thirst for Power Risks Leaving Turkey High and Dry”
Ece Temelkuran, Washington Post: “Think autocracy is ‘impossible’ here? Look at Turkey.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary - September 17, 2019
Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a coalition after April’s elections. Parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz. Netanyahu faces possible corruption charges.
Loveday Morris and Miriam Berger, Washington Post: “How the battle of bra-baring waitresses and ultrareligious protesters explains Israel’s political crisis”
Danny Zaken, Al-Monitor: “Israel’s religious right plays the merger game”
Michael Freedman, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Repeat elections in Israel may not be enough to overcome religious divisions”
Dov Waxman, Forward: “Israel’s Democracy Is On The Ballot In The Upcoming Elections”
Sam Sokol, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Who is Avigdor Liberman, and why did he force new elections in Israel?”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Labor Chief Gabbay Announces He Won’t Seek Reelection. Gabbay led the party through a stinging defeat in the April 9 election, and came under criticism for considering to join Netanyahu’s government despite vows he wouldn’t”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “An Election Rerun Shows Why Nothing Is Normal in Israeli Politics Anymore”
Afghanistan Presidential - September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, elections that were not particularly competently run. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations with the Taliban.
TOLO News: “A member of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on Sunday confirmed shortcoming in public awareness campaign ahead of September presidential elections in Afghanistan, saying that the “inattention” could be a major defect. Sources have said that at least $23 million has been allocated for public awareness campaign on elections.”
Algeria Presidential - July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date.
France24: “On Thursday [June 6], interim President Abdelkader Bensalah called for all parties to launch an ‘inclusive dialogue’ to prepare for presidential elections, following the constitutional council’s scrapping of a vote set for July 4. Bensalah is leading the transition as upper house speaker. He had initially been elected by parliament for 90 days until elections planned for July 4. No new date has been set, to the anger of protesters.”
Simon Speakman Cordall, Al-Monitor: “‘The protesters welcome the cancellation of the elections, not necessarily the extension,’ said Sharan Grewal, of the Brookings Institute. ‘Their argument is that they do not want elections if they are run by the Bouteflika regime with no guarantees that they will be free and fair. Whether that occurs July 4th or at some later date, that is unacceptable.’”
Al Jazeera: “Thousands of people have gathered in the Algerian capital calling on interim President Abdelkader Bensalah to quit after he vowed to stay in power until a new head of state was elected. Carrying banners reading ‘You all go’ and ‘We need new figures,’ protesters packed central Algiers on Friday for the 16th consecutive week demanding the removal of the ruling elite.”
https://twitter.com/lawfareblog/status/1138487665303674880
Heba Saleh, Financial Times: “As Sudan descends into violence, Algeria’s spring lives on”
Kilian Clarke, Foreign Affairs: “What Algeria and Sudan Can Learn From Egypt”
Iran Parliamentary - February 2020
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Special Report: The Supreme Leader’s Hidden Administration”
Palestinian Authority Legislative - Due by June 2019 (on hold indefinitely)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006, which is the most recent election of any sort for the Palestinian Authority. Hamas won the 2006 elections in a landslide. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a multifaceted conflict among Palestinian stakeholders.
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “A coalition of 70 nongovernmental organizations is monitoring the performance of the new Palestinian government to gauge its social accountability in the absence of a legislative council playing this role. The Palestinian Constitutional Court in Ramallah decided in December to disband the Palestinian Legislative Council. Now, the Palestinian Consultative Staff for Developing NGOs (PCS) — an independent civil association comprising 70 civil society organizations — has stepped up with a program dubbed ‘Accountability Development.'”
Upcoming Elections
Turkey Istanbul Mayoral Re-Run – June 23, 2019
Turkey held local elections on March 31, but invalidated the results of some of the contests, most notably the Istanbul mayoral election after the opposition won by a small margin. Istanbul will go to the polls again on June 23 after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) alleged fraud. Erdogan got his political start as mayor of Istanbul and is thus very invested in that city. The decision to hold a new election has been widely criticized both in Turkey (including by some former high-ranking officials from AKP) and internationally. The election is happening in the context of Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism, and a poor result for AKP could spark a crisis of legitimacy.
Thomas Phillips, Open Democracy: “Turkey’s local elections were not free or fair. If Turkey can hang on to the remaining threads of its democracy and the fractured political opposition can organise itself effectively, it might not bode well for the future of president Erdogan and his ruling party.”
Ekrem Imamoglu (mayor-elect of Istanbul; running again because the government invalidated the result), Washington Post: “How I won the race for mayor of Istanbul — and how I’ll win again”
Reuters: “Mayoral rivals to hold Turkey’s first TV debate in nearly two decades”
The Economist: “Turkey’s President Erdogan may face a mutiny in his own party. Former bigwigs in the ruling party are said to be planning a new one”
Stratfor: “The AKP’s Thirst for Power Risks Leaving Turkey High and Dry”
Ece Temelkuran, Washington Post: “Think autocracy is ‘impossible’ here? Look at Turkey.”
Israel Snap Parliamentary – September 17, 2019
Israelis head to the polls again in an unprecedented do-over of parliamentary elections after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unable to form a coalition after April’s elections. Parties friendly to Netanyahu won more seats than those friendly to Netanyahu’s main rival, former IDF chief Benny Gantz. Netanyahu faces possible corruption charges.
Loveday Morris and Miriam Berger, Washington Post: “How the battle of bra-baring waitresses and ultrareligious protesters explains Israel’s political crisis”
Danny Zaken, Al-Monitor: “Israel’s religious right plays the merger game”
Michael Freedman, Washington Post’s Monkey Cage: “Repeat elections in Israel may not be enough to overcome religious divisions”
Dov Waxman, Forward: “Israel’s Democracy Is On The Ballot In The Upcoming Elections”
Sam Sokol, Jewish Telegraphic Agency: “Who is Avigdor Liberman, and why did he force new elections in Israel?”
Jonathan Lis, Haaretz: “Israel’s Labor Chief Gabbay Announces He Won’t Seek Reelection. Gabbay led the party through a stinging defeat in the April 9 election, and came under criticism for considering to join Netanyahu’s government despite vows he wouldn’t”
Frida Ghitis, World Politics Review: “An Election Rerun Shows Why Nothing Is Normal in Israeli Politics Anymore”
Afghanistan Presidential – September 28, 2019
Afghanistan held long-delayed parliamentary elections in October 2018, elections that were not particularly competently run. In order to fix problems from the legislative elections, the presidential election has been delayed twice. President Ashraf Ghani’s term ended on May 22, 2019, but he has remained in office, despite calls for a caretaker government, infuriating some. Ghani became president in 2014 in a power sharing deal with his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, following a flawed election. Presidential campaign is gearing up right in the middle of peace negotiations with the Taliban.
TOLO News: “A member of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) on Sunday confirmed shortcoming in public awareness campaign ahead of September presidential elections in Afghanistan, saying that the “inattention” could be a major defect. Sources have said that at least $23 million has been allocated for public awareness campaign on elections.”
Algeria Presidential – July 4, 2019 (cancelled)
Algerian politics are dominated by Le Pouvoir, a small group of elite from the military and the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) party. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, aged 82 and unable to walk or talk, was going to run for a fifth term in the election originally scheduled for April, but tens of thousands of Algerians protested for two months, and Bouteflika resigned. The election was moved to July 4, but then the Constitutional Council cancelled the vote and has not set a new date.
France24: “On Thursday [June 6], interim President Abdelkader Bensalah called for all parties to launch an ‘inclusive dialogue’ to prepare for presidential elections, following the constitutional council’s scrapping of a vote set for July 4. Bensalah is leading the transition as upper house speaker. He had initially been elected by parliament for 90 days until elections planned for July 4. No new date has been set, to the anger of protesters.”
Simon Speakman Cordall, Al-Monitor: “‘The protesters welcome the cancellation of the elections, not necessarily the extension,’ said Sharan Grewal, of the Brookings Institute. ‘Their argument is that they do not want elections if they are run by the Bouteflika regime with no guarantees that they will be free and fair. Whether that occurs July 4th or at some later date, that is unacceptable.’”
Al Jazeera: “Thousands of people have gathered in the Algerian capital calling on interim President Abdelkader Bensalah to quit after he vowed to stay in power until a new head of state was elected. Carrying banners reading ‘You all go’ and ‘We need new figures,’ protesters packed central Algiers on Friday for the 16th consecutive week demanding the removal of the ruling elite.”
Heba Saleh, Financial Times: “As Sudan descends into violence, Algeria’s spring lives on”
Kilian Clarke, Foreign Affairs: “What Algeria and Sudan Can Learn From Egypt”
Iran Parliamentary – February 2020
Some analysts argue that “moderates” or “reformers” won Iran’s 2016 parliamentary elections, but the country’s opaque politics make it difficult to know for sure how to characterize the results. All candidates must be approved by the Guardian Council, which rejected thousands during the 2016 elections. Parliament is less powerful than the Supreme Leader and other institutions such as the Guardian Council, the judiciary, and the security services.
RFE/RL’s Radio Farda: “Special Report: The Supreme Leader’s Hidden Administration”
Palestinian Authority Legislative – Due by June 2019 (on hold indefinitely)
Elections are long overdue. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is currently in year 14 of a four-year term. Legislative Council elections are similarly long overdue – the last took place in 2006, which is the most recent election of any sort for the Palestinian Authority. Hamas won the 2006 elections in a landslide. In December 2018, the Ramallah-based Constitutional Court issued a ruling dissolving the Legislative Council (which had not met since 2007) and ordering elections within six months, but the elections are on hold indefinitely in the midst of a multifaceted conflict among Palestinian stakeholders.
Ahmad Melhem, Al-Monitor: “A coalition of 70 nongovernmental organizations is monitoring the performance of the new Palestinian government to gauge its social accountability in the absence of a legislative council playing this role. The Palestinian Constitutional Court in Ramallah decided in December to disband the Palestinian Legislative Council. Now, the Palestinian Consultative Staff for Developing NGOs (PCS) — an independent civil association comprising 70 civil society organizations — has stepped up with a program dubbed ‘Accountability Development.'”
The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (planned for the first half of 2019 – delays possible); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections by June – delays highly likely); Turkey Istanbul mayoral re-run (June 23); Algeria presidential (July 4 – cancelled); Israel snap parliamentary (September 17); Afghanistan presidential (September 28); Oman consultative assembly (October – assembly is advisory only with no actual legislative power); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October 6 and November 17); Iraq provincial (November 16); Iran parliamentary (February 2020); Palestinian Authority legislative (elections overdue – new government says they aim to hold elections but no date set)
A polling station in Afghanistan, 2005. Photo credit: U.S. Department of State (public domain)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. Heterodoxy is more interesting than orthodoxy, and diversity more interesting than uniformity. More on our approach here.
Comments
Share this:
Related
Category: This Week Tags: Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Turkey