Europe This Week – January 30, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Estonia Parliamentary - March 3, 2019

Estonia’s official ERR news service released its January poll numbers ahead of the March 3 parliamentary elections. Results indicate that the governing Centre Party and main opposition Reform Party will switch positions following the election. Centre polled at 33 percent and Reform at 25 percent. Both showed higher numbers than in December polls. ERR notes: “The Reform Party currently holds 30 mandates, ahead of the Centre Party’s 25. Looking at the ratings of ERR’s January voter survey, there is a good chance Centre will get around 30 mandates, while Reform will lose a few, coming in about where Centre is right now.”

The far-right populist Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), whose rise has been watched closely, clocked in at 17 percent, down a point from December. Support for the newly-formed pro-Europe Estonia 200 tanked after a controversial campaign stunt earlier this month. Now the party sits on the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats.

Ten political parties and 18 candidates will contest the elections.

Finland Parliamentary - April 14, 2019

The far-right populist Finns Party has joined with the parties of the left to support the idea of reducing Finland’s number of fighter planes. Defense Minister Jussi Niinistö  criticized the idea: “Pretty surprising information, especially when you consider that the Finns Party has joined with the red-green opposition. This is about whether we are interested in defending our country or not. If we cut the number of fighter planes at our disposal, then we need to start haggling over which areas are most in need of defense. This is irresponsible politics, in my opinion,” he said in a weekend television interview.

Former parliament speaker Maria Lohela is leaving Blue Reform, which split off from the Finns Party, to join Liike Nyt (Movement Now), a new political movement founded by member of Parliament Hjallis Harkimo, who used to host the Finnish version of The Apprentice.

Greece European Elections - May 26, 2019 and Parliamentary - October (snap possible)

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras from the radical socialist populist Syriza Party gave a speech in Athens calling for left-wing parties to unite ahead of the European Parliament elections, with the goal of forming a majority: “This broad progressive alliance will have a clear position against neoliberalism and those policies that fuel the far-right and anti-European populism. But it will also come with a clear position in favor of Europe, in favor of a Europe of democracy, social cohesion and rights.”

Tsipras announced an 11 percent hike in the minimum wage ahead of elections. This comes after a razor-thin vote in Parliament approving the Prespa Agreement with Macedonia, which would enable Greece’s neighbor to the north to join NATO and the EU if it changes its name to “North Macedonia.” Greece has blocked Macedonia from both bodies because it objects to the country’s use of the name Macedonia. Some have described the vote as one of the most contentious in Greece’s history. The agreement is highly controversial in Greece and the months leading up to its passage were marked by major protests. The deal will certainly impact Greece’s upcoming parliamentary elections.

Bulgaria European Parliament - May 26, 2019 and Municipal - Planned for Autumn 2019

Bulgarian president Roumen Radev floated the idea of early elections, bashing the prime minister and Bulgarian government. The Sophia Globe reports: “Radev, elected on the ticket of the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, spelt out a number of criticisms on January 28 in a speech marking two years in office. He attacked the government on a range of issues, from economic performance to the fighter jet acquisition process National Assembly Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva, a senior member of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s GERB party, described Radev’s speech as ‘dark, pessimistic, dull and humiliating Bulgaria.’” Radev tends to be generally pro-Moscow while Borissov and his center-right GERB party tend to be pro-Europe.

Czech Republic European Parliament - May 26, 2019

Politico’s Siegfriend Mortkowitz has an interesting feature on the Czech Pirate Party, which became the third-largest party in parliament in less than ten years. He reports: “The party is now looking ahead to the European Parliament election in May with confidence, and party officials say they expect to send at least five MEPs to Brussels. This would be five more than they currently have, but not impossible: POLITICO’s projections predict the Pirates would win four seats.”

France European Parliament - May 26, 2019

Politico’s Galaxy Henry reports: “France’s Yellow Jackets movement has suffered the first blow to its European Parliament election bid after its campaign director and one of its 10 candidates quit this week. The withdrawals of campaign chief Hayk Shahinyan and candidate Marc Doyer come just days after a faction within the movement announced ambitions to contest the election in May, which has led to conflict over how to transform the grassroots, anti-government movement into a political force, according to Reuters.”

Spain - European Parliament, Regional, and Local - May 26, 2019

Last December, the far-right populist party Vox won seats in the Andalusia regional legislature, the first time a far-right party has won seats in any Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy. Ahead of local, regional, and European elections this year, many are curious about what exactly Vox will do, how much of a threat they pose to democracy, and what their prospects are for gaining more power.

Meanwhile, the left-wing populist party Podemos appears to be in disarray.

Romania European Parliament - June 26, 2019

Bianca Toma and Alexandru Damian of the Romanian Centre for European Politics on how Romania’s European Parliament elections will be a “battleground for reformist forces.”

Serbia - Snapwatch

Serbia could hold snap elections on March 31 or April 14. B92 notes: “If Aleksandar Vucic decides that early parliamentary elections should be held on March 31, they must be called between January 30 and February 14. If, however, a decision is made to go to the polls in mid-April, then elections will have to be called between February 13-18.”

Bosnia and Herzegovina General - October 7, 2018

Reuters reports: Following parliamentary and presidential elections in October, a dispute between Serb, Croat and Bosniak presidency members over Bosnia’s integration into NATO has delayed the formation of the central government. The Bosniak and Croat pro-NATO presidency members refuse to approve Dodik’s candidate for the job of prime minister unless he pledges support for NATO integration. But pro-Russian Dodik is strongly against it.”

Italy European Parliament - May 26, 2019 (and possible snap parliamentary elections)

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will run for the European Parliament.

Speculation of early parliamentary elections continues as the governing coalition struggles to hold together.

Latvia General - October 6, 2018

Latvia has a government four months after last fall’s general elections. The coalition consists of five center-right parties and will not include Harmony, the party Latvia’s Russian community supports, even though it won 20 percent of the votes and is the largest party in the Saeima, Latvia’s legislature.

Upcoming Elections
On deck: Italy, Sardinia regional (February 24); Andorra parliamentary (March); Estonia parliamentary (March 3); Lithuania municipal (March 3); Slovakia presidential (March 16); Netherlands provincial councils, island councils, and water boards (March 20); Macedonia presidential (April); Finland parliamentary (April 14); United Kingdom local (May 2); Lithuania presidential (May 12)

European Parliament (May 23-26), and coinciding with those elections: Ireland local (May 24); Malta parliamentary (May 25); Belgium regional and parliamentary (May 26); Germany, Baden-Würtemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Thuringia Municipal, Bremen State (May 26); Greece local (May 26); Italy, nationwide local and Basilicata regional (May 26); Spainregional in Aragon, Asturias, Balearic Islands, Canaries, Cantabria, Castilia-Leon, Castilia-Manchego, Extremadura, Madrid, Murcia, Navarra, Rioja, Valencia, and nationwide local (May 26)

Denmark parliamentary (on or before June 17); Albania local (June 30); Germany, Brandenburg and Saxony state (September 1); Portugal, Madeiran regional (September 22); Greece parliamentary (October but snap possible); Bulgaria local (Autumn); Hungary local (October);  Switzerland Federal Assembly (October); Poland parliamentary (November); Croatia presidential (December)

Upcoming Elections
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
Estonia’s official ERR news service released its January poll numbers ahead of the March 3 parliamentary elections. Results indicate that the governing Centre Party and main opposition Reform Party will switch positions following the election. Centre polled at 33 percent and Reform at 25 percent. Both showed higher numbers than in December polls. ERR notes: “The Reform Party currently holds 30 mandates, ahead of the Centre Party’s 25. Looking at the ratings of ERR’s January voter survey, there is a good chance Centre will get around 30 mandates, while Reform will lose a few, coming in about where Centre is right now.”

The far-right populist Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), whose rise has been watched closely, clocked in at 17 percent, down a point from December. Support for the newly-formed pro-Europe Estonia 200 tanked after a controversial campaign stunt earlier this month. Now the party sits on the 5 percent threshold needed to win seats.

Ten political parties and 18 candidates will contest the elections.

Finland Parliamentary – April 14, 2019
The far-right populist Finns Party has joined with the parties of the left to support the idea of reducing Finland’s number of fighter planes. Defense Minister Jussi Niinistö  criticized the idea: “Pretty surprising information, especially when you consider that the Finns Party has joined with the red-green opposition. This is about whether we are interested in defending our country or not. If we cut the number of fighter planes at our disposal, then we need to start haggling over which areas are most in need of defense. This is irresponsible politics, in my opinion,” he said in a weekend television interview.

Former parliament speaker Maria Lohela is leaving Blue Reform, which split off from the Finns Party, to join Liike Nyt (Movement Now), a new political movement founded by member of Parliament Hjallis Harkimo, who used to host the Finnish version of The Apprentice.

Greece European Elections – May 26, 2019 and Parliamentary – October (snap possible)
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras from the radical socialist populist Syriza Party gave a speech in Athens calling for left-wing parties to unite ahead of the European Parliament elections, with the goal of forming a majority: “This broad progressive alliance will have a clear position against neoliberalism and those policies that fuel the far-right and anti-European populism. But it will also come with a clear position in favor of Europe, in favor of a Europe of democracy, social cohesion and rights.”

Tsipras announced an 11 percent hike in the minimum wage ahead of elections. This comes after a razor-thin vote in Parliament approving the Prespa Agreement with Macedonia, which would enable Greece’s neighbor to the north to join NATO and the EU if it changes its name to “North Macedonia.” Greece has blocked Macedonia from both bodies because it objects to the country’s use of the name Macedonia. Some have described the vote as one of the most contentious in Greece’s history. The agreement is highly controversial in Greece and the months leading up to its passage were marked by major protests. The deal will certainly impact Greece’s upcoming parliamentary elections.

Bulgaria European Parliament – May 26, 2019 and Municipal – Planned for Autumn 2019
Bulgarian president Roumen Radev floated the idea of early elections, bashing the prime minister and Bulgarian government. The Sophia Globe reports: “Radev, elected on the ticket of the opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party, spelt out a number of criticisms on January 28 in a speech marking two years in office. He attacked the government on a range of issues, from economic performance to the fighter jet acquisition process National Assembly Speaker Tsveta Karayancheva, a senior member of Prime Minister Boiko Borissov’s GERB party, described Radev’s speech as ‘dark, pessimistic, dull and humiliating Bulgaria.’” Radev tends to be pro-Moscow while Borissov and his center-right GERB party tend to be pro-West, although sometimes the lines between the two can be murky.

Czech Republic European Parliament – May 26, 2019
Politico’s Siegfriend Mortkowitz has an interesting feature on the Czech Pirate Party, which became the third-largest party in parliament in less than ten years. He reports: “The party is now looking ahead to the European Parliament election in May with confidence, and party officials say they expect to send at least five MEPs to Brussels. This would be five more than they currently have, but not impossible: POLITICO’s projections predict the Pirates would win four seats.”

France European Parliament – May 26, 2019
Politico’s Galaxy Henry reports: “France’s Yellow Jackets movement has suffered the first blow to its European Parliament election bid after its campaign director and one of its 10 candidates quit this week. The withdrawals of campaign chief Hayk Shahinyan and candidate Marc Doyer come just days after a faction within the movement announced ambitions to contest the election in May, which has led to conflict over how to transform the grassroots, anti-government movement into a political force, according to Reuters.”

Spain – European Parliament, Regional, and Local – May 26, 2019
Last December, the far-right populist party Vox won seats in the Andalusia regional legislature, the first time a far-right party has won seats in any Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy. Ahead of local, regional, and European elections this year, many are curious about what exactly Vox will do, how much of a threat they pose to democracy, and what their prospects are for gaining more power. 

Meanwhile, the left-wing populist party Podemos appears to be in disarray.

Romania European Parliament – June 26, 2019
Bianca Toma and Alexandru Damian of the Romanian Centre for European Politics on how Romania’s European Parliament elections will be a “battleground for reformist forces.”

Serbia – Snapwatch
Serbia could hold snap elections on March 31 or April 14. B92 notes: “If Aleksandar Vucic decides that early parliamentary elections should be held on March 31, they must be called between January 30 and February 14. If, however, a decision is made to go to the polls in mid-April, then elections will have to be called between February 13-18.”

Past Elections
Bosnia and Herzegovina General – October 7, 2018
Reuters reports:
Following parliamentary and presidential elections in October, a dispute between Serb, Croat and Bosniak presidency members over Bosnia’s integration into NATO has delayed the formation of the central government. The Bosniak and Croat pro-NATO presidency members refuse to approve Dodik’s candidate for the job of prime minister unless he pledges support for NATO integration. But pro-Russian Dodik is strongly against it.”

Italy European Parliament – May 26, 2019 (and possible snap parliamentary elections)
Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will run for the European Parliament.

Speculation of early parliamentary elections continues as the governing coalition struggles to hold together.

Latvia General – October 6, 2018
Latvia has a government four months after last fall’s general elections. The coalition consists of five center-right parties and will not include Harmony, the party Latvia’s Russian community supports, even though it won 20 percent of the votes and is the largest party in the Saeima, Latvia’s legislature.


The European Parliament building in Brussels. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Steven Lek

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