Eurasia This Week – February 1, 2019

January 31, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Moldova Parliamentary - February 24, 2019

Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections sit on the front lines of freedom. If the elections are free and fair, the pro-European opposition has a chance to win and reverse the current movement toward authoritarianism. However, Russia wants the oligarchs to remain dominant. Russia’s friends in the Moldovan Orthodox Church are ramping up their attempts to influence the election. Balkan Insight notes that “With Moldovan politicians locked in a ‘total war’ for parliament in an election next month, journalists have become increasingly exposed to pressure, threat and verbal and physical abuse on a scale not seen since independence, the director of the Moldovan Centre for Investigative Journalism says.”

Ukraine Presidential - March 31, 2019 and Parliamentary - October 2019

Incumbent president Petro Poroshenko has announced his candidacy for re-election. He said that joining the European Union would be one of his top priorities, applying for membership in 2024 but taking immediate steps to implement the necessary reforms. Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko declared her candidacy last week, and has a bit of a lead over Poroshenko in recent polls.

The International Republican Institute released the results of a survey that found the main issues influencing voters were first and foremost the conflict in Donbas, and hen corruption, then economic issues.


Andrew Langley in the Washington Post: “Legacy of Ukraine Revolution Rides on March Election”

Georgia Parliamentary - By October 2020

Civil.ge reports: “Twenty-five opposition parties, including United National Movement, European Georgia, Labor Party, Development Movement, Free Democrats and New Rights, will petition the government for adopting the proportional system of parliamentary elections. The decision was announced on January 30, at a joint gathering of opposition parties.”

The National Democratic Institute released results from a December 2018 poll. NDI found: “Poll results released today by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and CRRC Georgia show 92 percent of Georgians assert that living in a democracy is important, and a majority believes a western-style democracy is best for the country. However, only 43 percent believe Georgia is currently a democracy, and 46 percent do not.”

Georgia and Russia are currently renegotiating a gas transit agreement between the Georgian government and Gazprom that expired on December 31.

Tajikistan Presidential and Parliamentary - Due in 2020 (date not set)

RFE/RL profiles Quvvatali Murodov, a retired doctor who might challenge incumbent Emomali Rahmon for the presidency next year. Murodov wants to “end the politics of fear,” but is now being subjected to a smear campaign involving questions about his mental health. Tajikistan has never held a free election, and the country harshly represses all forms of dissent and political opposition.

Catherine Putz writes in The Diplomat: “With the 2020 election more than a year away, there’s only so much forecasting that can be done. But keeping an eye on the Rahmon family, the exiled opposition, and on the ground in Tajikistan for the budding of any domestic-based opposition forces are good places to start. Could 2020 be different? Probably not, but it’s a long year ahead, and much could happen.”

RFE/RL’s Qishloq Ovozi interviews exiled Tajik Islamic Party Leader Muhiddin Kabiri.

Upcoming Elections
On deck: Moldova parliamentary (February 24); Ukraine presidential (March 31); Moldova local (June); Ukraine parliamentary (October); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19)

Moldova Parliamentary – February 24, 2019
Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections sit on the front lines of freedom. If the elections are free and fair, the pro-European opposition has a chance to win and reverse the current movement toward authoritarianism. However, Russia wants the oligarchs to remain dominant. Russia’s friends in the Moldovan Orthodox Church are ramping up their attempts to influence the election. Balkan Insight notes that “With Moldovan politicians locked in a ‘total war’ for parliament in an election next month, journalists have become increasingly exposed to pressure, threat and verbal and physical abuse on a scale not seen since independence, the director of the Moldovan Centre for Investigative Journalism says.”

Ukraine Presidential – March 31, 2019 and Parliamentary – October 2019
Incumbent president Petro Poroshenko has announced his candidacy for re-election. He said that joining the European Union would be one of his top priorities, applying for membership in 2024 but taking immediate steps to implement the necessary reforms. Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko declared her candidacy last week, and has a bit of a lead over Poroshenko in recent polls.

The International Republican Institute released the results of a survey that found the main issues influencing voters were first and foremost the conflict in Donbas, and hen corruption, then economic issues.Andrew Langley in the Washington Post: “Legacy of Ukraine Revolution Rides on March Election”

Georgia Parliamentary – By October 2020
Civil.ge reports: “Twenty-five opposition parties, including United National Movement, European Georgia, Labor Party, Development Movement, Free Democrats and New Rights, will petition the government for adopting the proportional system of parliamentary elections. The decision was announced on January 30, at a joint gathering of opposition parties.”

The National Democratic Institute released results from a December 2018 poll. NDI found: “Poll results released today by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and CRRC Georgia show 92 percent of Georgians assert that living in a democracy is important, and a majority believes a western-style democracy is best for the country. However, only 43 percent believe Georgia is currently a democracy, and 46 percent do not.”

Georgia and Russia are currently renegotiating a gas transit agreement between the Georgian government and Gazprom that expired on December 31.

Tajikistan Presidential and Parliamentary – Due in 2020 (date not set)
RFE/RL profiles Quvvatali Murodov, a retired doctor who might challenge incumbent Emomali Rahmon for the presidency next year. Murodov wants to “end the politics of fear,” but is now being subjected to a smear campaign involving questions about his mental health. Tajikistan has never held a free election, and the country harshly represses all forms of dissent and political opposition.

Catherine Putz writes in The Diplomat: “With the 2020 election more than a year away, there’s only so much forecasting that can be done. But keeping an eye on the Rahmon family, the exiled opposition, and on the ground in Tajikistan for the budding of any domestic-based opposition forces are good places to start. Could 2020 be different? Probably not, but it’s a long year ahead, and much could happen.”

RFE/RL’s Qishloq Ovozi interviews exiled Tajik Islamic Party Leader Muhiddin Kabiri.

 

Moldova’s wine industry plays an important role in the country’s economy, and also has a geopolitical dimension (here’s an interesting read from Slate on that). Mileștii Mici wine cellars in Moldova’s Ialoveni District holds the world’s biggest wine collection, according to the Guinness Book of World Records. Photo Credit: Wikimedia/Dave Proffer

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