Europe – December 12, 2018

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Estonia - March 3, 2018

Eesti Rahvusringhääling (EER), the Estonian state broadcaster, released their December tracking polls ahead of the parliamentary elections. They report: “The conflict sparked by the UN Global Compact for Migration led to an increase in supporters of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), but also significant uptick in the number of voters who would not vote for EKRE under any circumstances. This month’s ERR-commissioned nationwide survey was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS during an eventful time. During the first week of polling, the Riigikogu held an extra session to approve a resolution supporting the UN Global Compact for Migration. The sitting was preceded by an EKRE-organised protest in front of the Riigikogu, which in turn led to a physical altercation with MEP Indrek Tarand (SDE), setting the tone for the duration of the survey period.”

Turkey Local - March 2019

Bloomberg reports that Turkey’s economic slowdown could spell bad news for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the upcoming local elections. Hürriyet Daily News reports that Meral Akşener’s center-right secularist İyi Party and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP – the party founded by Atatürk) are discussing a coalition for the local elections. The pro-AKP Daily Sabah reports that the opposition coalition has agreed on candidates mayoral races.

Baltics

Politico’s Ryan Heath and the Baltic Times published a special playbook out on how the European Elections could unfold in the Baltics.

Poland Parliamentary - Before November 2019

Poland’s governing Law and Justice (PiS) won a vote of confidence in the Sejm (Parliament) that it had called itself ahead of next year’s national elections.

Spain, Andalusia

Spanish strategist María Ramírez examines the various factors that led to the far-right Vox party gaining seats in the Andalusia regional legislature, the first time a far-right party has gained seats in any Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy.

Belgium

Belgium has a minority government after the right-wing Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) pulled out of the government on Saturday. Though the row was ostensibly over migration, Politico posits: “The gamble Michel is making, therefore, isn’t so much about domestic policy as it is about Belgium’s credibility in Europe. It’s about choosing its camp: either among the cheerleaders of Europe and liberalism, like Emmanuel Macron, or among the populist opportunists, like Viktor Orbán and Sebastian Kurz.”

Germany

Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) held leadership elections in Hamburg last week. Merkel’s chosen successor won, and is now trying to bridge ideological divisions within the party.

Hungary

Viktor Orbans’s government has created a parallel court system that tightens the government’s grip on the judiciary.

Ireland

The Irish Times reports that Fianna Fáil, the main opposition party, has struck a deal with Fine Gael, with whose government it has a confidence and supply agreement, to delay elections until 2020 in order to avoid additional chaos as Brexit unfolds.

Italy

Italy may hold early elections.

Montenegro

The New Yorker’s David Shimer explores Russian interference in elections in Montenegro and other democracies.

Serbia

Balkan Insight reports: “A protest against political violence, which gathered several thousand people in Belgrade, is just the beginning for Serbia’s opposition parties, they have said, announcing new protests under the slogan ‘It has started’ – meaning the fall of President Aleksandar Vucic. Although it was held without political identification, the December 8 protest ‘Stop the Bloody Shirts’ [‘Stop krvavim kosuljama’] united most opposition political parties, while one of the biggest surprise was the large number of people who turned out – well into the thousands.”

United Kingdom

Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a no-confidence vote of her fellow Conservative MPs.

Upcoming Elections in the News
Estonia – March 3, 2019
Eesti Rahvusringhääling (EER), the Estonian state broadcaster, released their December tracking polls ahead of the parliamentary elections. They report: “The conflict sparked by the UN Global Compact for Migration led to an increase in supporters of the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), but also significant uptick in the number of voters who would not vote for EKRE under any circumstances. This month’s ERR-commissioned nationwide survey was conducted by Turu-uuringute AS during an eventful time. During the first week of polling, the Riigikogu held an extra session to approve a resolution supporting the UN Global Compact for Migration. The sitting was preceded by an EKRE-organised protest in front of the Riigikogu, which in turn led to a physical altercation with MEP Indrek Tarand (SDE), setting the tone for the duration of the survey period.”

Turkey Local – March 2019
Bloomberg reports that Turkey’s economic slowdown could spell bad news for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the upcoming local elections. Hürriyet Daily News reports that Meral Akşener’s center-right secularist İyi Party and the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP – the party founded by Atatürk) are discussing a coalition for the local elections. The pro-AKP Daily Sabah reports that the opposition coalition has agreed on candidates mayoral races.

Baltics, European Elections – May 2019
Politico’s Ryan Heath and the Baltic Times published a special playbook out on how the European Elections could unfold in the Baltics.

Poland – Before November 2019
Poland’s governing Law and Justice (PiS) won a vote of confidence in the Sejm (Parliament) that it had called itself ahead of next year’s national elections.

Recent Elections in the News
Spain, Andalusia
Spanish strategist María Ramírez examines the various factors that led to the far-right Vox party gaining seats in the Andalusia regional legislature, the first time a far-right party has gained seats in any Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy.

Other Regional News and Views
Belgium
Belgium has a minority government after the right-wing Flemish nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) pulled out of the government on Saturday. Though the row was ostensibly over migration, Politico posits: “The gamble Michel is making, therefore, isn’t so much about domestic policy as it is about Belgium’s credibility in Europe. It’s about choosing its camp: either among the cheerleaders of Europe and liberalism, like Emmanuel Macron, or among the populist opportunists, like Viktor Orbán and Sebastian Kurz.”

Germany
Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) held leadership elections in Hamburg last week. Merkel’s chosen successor won, and is now trying to bridge ideological divisions within the party.

Hungary
Viktor Orbans’s government has created a parallel court system that tightens the government’s grip on the judiciary.

Ireland
The Irish Times reports that Fianna Fáil, the main opposition party, has struck a deal with Fine Gael, with whose government it has a confidence and supply agreement, to delay elections until 2020 in order to avoid additional chaos as Brexit unfolds.

Italy
Meanwhile, Italy may hold early elections.

Montenegro
The New Yorker’s David Shimer explores Russian interference in elections in Montenegro and other democracies.

Serbia
Balkan Insight reports: “A protest against political violence, which gathered several thousand people in Belgrade, is just the beginning for Serbia’s opposition parties, they have said, announcing new protests under the slogan ‘It has started’ – meaning the fall of President Aleksandar Vucic. Although it was held without political identification, the December 8 protest ‘Stop the Bloody Shirts’ [‘Stop krvavim kosuljama’] united most opposition political parties, while one of the biggest surprise was the large number of people who turned out – well into the thousands.”

United Kingdom
Prime Minister Theresa May has survived a no-confidence vote of her fellow Conservative MPs.

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