Eurasia – December 13, 2018

Eurasia – December 13, 2018

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. Thursdays we explore Eurasia.

Moldova Parliamentary - February 24, 2019

Another election on the front lines of freedom. Voice of America reports: “Moldova’s electoral campaign has begun ahead of parliamentary elections, amid concerns that Russia is seeking to influence the results in the former Soviet republic. The campaign began Monday in the February 24 ballot for the 101-seat legislature currently controlled by a broadly pro-European coalition.” The Irish Times reports: “Moldova’s constitutional court has again suspended the country’s pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon, amid an intensifying power struggle ahead of parliamentary elections in February. Mr Dodon was temporarily sidelined for a fifth time on the request of Moldova’s avowedly pro-western government, to allow speaker of parliament Andrian Candu to sign several Bills that were passed by parliament but blocked by the president.”

Ukraine Presidential - March 31, 2019

This week, the Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert has lots of helpful articles about the upcoming presidential elections, including a look at whether a celebrity without government experience could deliver the type of reform that Ukrainians want; an explanation of why a pro-Russian candidate can’t win; a piece on the Maidan movement’s moves to consolidate and organize into a liberal political movement; and an analysis of what a Tymoshenko presidency would look like.

Ukraine, Mariupol

Daily Signal Ukraine correspondent Nolan Peterson writes about Mariupol’s quest for democracy and civil society in a war zone.

Armenia

Armenia’s reformist leader Nikol Pashinyan won the December 9 snap elections by a landslide, with his party garnering over 70 percent of the vote. Pashinyan came to power following weeks of protests in May. The party of Serzh Sargsyan, the former Prime Minster, didn’t clear the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. The Jamestown Foundation’s Armen Grigoryan, in his assessment of how Pashinyan won, notes: “Remarkably, for the first time in more than 20 years, a national election was conducted in Armenia without evident fraud, such as vote buying, bussing of voters, attempts to cast several ballots, or widespread intimidation of opposition proxies and observers.”

The Economist explains the background of the elections and what could happen next (bottom line: while this could be considered a democratic victory, it won’t likely result in a geopolitical shift toward the West because Armenia believes it needs Russia to guarantee its security). Joshua Kucera looks at the reaction in neighboring Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijani’s government and media have heaped scorn on the recent elections in Armenia, but some optimists in the country found reason for hope that a new leadership in Yerevan could lead to progress in resolving the two countries’ ongoing conflict.”

Georgia

The German Marshall Fund’s Marcos da Rocha Carvalho ponders whether a new libertarian party led by former surgeon and MP Zurab Japaridze could shake up Georgia’s 2020 parliamentary elections: “Japaridze’s Girchi party received only 2.5 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential contest, but this may only be the beginning of the story for Georgia’s libertarians. His goal was to run in order to create even more recognition for the party ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2020. Girchi could become a much-sought-after coalition partner for any party wanting to form a governing majority in the next parliament. This strategy might pan out: several people in their twenties told me they wanted to vote for Girchi in the presidential election but thought it would be more strategic to throw support to the more serious opposition candidate to force a second round.”

Russia

George Tsereteli, in the Atlantic Council’s blog, considers the failures of Putin’s strategy.

Uzbekistan

The Cipher Brief looks at Uzbekistan’s recent domestic political reforms and potential shifts in foreign policy.

Upcoming Elections in the News
Moldova Parliamentary – February 24, 2019
Another election on the front lines of freedom. Voice of America reports: “Moldova’s electoral campaign has begun ahead of parliamentary elections, amid concerns that Russia is seeking to influence the results in the former Soviet republic. The campaign began Monday in the February 24 ballot for the 101-seat legislature currently controlled by a broadly pro-European coalition.” The Irish Times reports: “Moldova’s constitutional court has again suspended the country’s pro-Russian president, Igor Dodon, amid an intensifying power struggle ahead of parliamentary elections in February. Mr Dodon was temporarily sidelined for a fifth time on the request of Moldova’s avowedly pro-western government, to allow speaker of parliament Andrian Candu to sign several Bills that were passed by parliament but blocked by the president.”

Ukraine Presidential – March 31, 2019
This week, the Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert has lots of helpful articles about the upcoming presidential elections, including a look at whether a celebrity without government experience could deliver the type of reform that Ukrainians want; an explanation of why a pro-Russian candidate can’t win; a piece on the Maidan movement’s moves to consolidate and organize into a liberal political movement; and an analysis of what a Tymoshenko presidency would look like.

Ukraine, Mariupol
Daily Signal Ukraine correspondent Nolan Peterson writes about Mariupol’s quest for democracy and civil society in a war zone.

Recent Elections in the News
Armenia
Armenia’s reformist leader Nikol Pashinyan won the December 9 snap elections by a landslide, with his party garnering over 70 percent of the vote. Pashinyan came to power following weeks of protests in May. The party of Serzh Sargsyan, the former Prime Minster, didn’t clear the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament. The Jamestown Foundation’s Armen Grigoryan, in his assessment of how Pashinyan won, notes: “Remarkably, for the first time in more than 20 years, a national election was conducted in Armenia without evident fraud, such as vote buying, bussing of voters, attempts to cast several ballots, or widespread intimidation of opposition proxies and observers.”

The Economist explains the background of the elections and what could happen next (bottom line: while this could be considered a democratic victory, it won’t likely result in a geopolitical shift toward the West because Armenia believes it needs Russia to guarantee its security). Joshua Kucera looks at the reaction in neighboring Azerbaijan: “Azerbaijani’s government and media have heaped scorn on the recent elections in Armenia, but some optimists in the country found reason for hope that a new leadership in Yerevan could lead to progress in resolving the two countries’ ongoing conflict.”

Georgia
The German Marshall Fund’s Marcos da Rocha Carvalho ponders whether a new libertarian party led by former surgeon and MP Zurab Japaridze could shake up Georgia’s 2020 parliamentary elections: “Japaridze’s Girchi party received only 2.5 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential contest, but this may only be the beginning of the story for Georgia’s libertarians. His goal was to run in order to create even more recognition for the party ahead of the parliamentary elections in 2020. Girchi could become a much-sought-after coalition partner for any party wanting to form a governing majority in the next parliament. This strategy might pan out: several people in their twenties told me they wanted to vote for Girchi in the presidential election but thought it would be more strategic to throw support to the more serious opposition candidate to force a second round.”

Other Regional News and Views
Russia
George Tsereteli, in the Atlantic Council’s blog, considers the failures of Putin’s strategy.

Uzbekistan
The Cipher Brief looks at Uzbekistan’s recent domestic political reforms and potential shifts in foreign policy.

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views contained in all of the linked articles.

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