Eurasia This Week – June 27, 2019

June 27, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.

Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.

Kyiv Post: “More than 80 percent of Ukrainians planning to vote in Rada elections”

Brian Mefford, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Five Predictions for Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections”

Reuters: “Ukraine president’s party leads poll ahead of July election”

Denys Krasnikov, Kyiv Post: “New political party Golos, spearheaded by rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, enjoys more support from Ukrainians than European Solidarity, the rebranded party of ex-President Petro Poroshenko, according to the latest polls.”

Roman Goncharenko, DW: “Zelenskiy likes to come across as an affable guy. The 41-year-old surrounds himself with young, hip, middle-class Ukrainians. None of the Servant candidates running for parliament have any prior experience of working in the legislature. Most are between 35 and 45 years old, used to work in the private sector, and are largely unknown to the electorate.”

Vitalii Rybak, Atlantic Council’s 2: “What Ukraine’s New Parties Bring to the Table”

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

RFE/RL: “The coordinator of Russian opposition politician and anti-corruption campaigner Aleksei Navalny’s St. Petersburg office says has been beaten by an unknown attacker. Aleksandr Shurshev said on June 26 that he was attacked as he tried to document long lines at the election commission office in the St. Petersburg’s Yekateringofsky municipal district.”

Dmitry Volchek and Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Dirty Tricks: Navalny Aide’s Bid For Moscow Duma Seat Brings Out The Worst”

Meduza: “Beyond Golunov:  How Moscow and St. Petersburg protested against police overreach and political repressions on June 23”

Moldova Local - October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists remarkably formed a surprise coalitiongovernment to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Moldova’s Regime Change: End of an Era, Uncertain New Start”

RFE/RL: “All six judges at Moldova’s Constitutional Court have stepped down amid calls for their resignation following decisions made by the court that fueled a political crisis in the ex-Soviet country.”

Maxim Edwards, Open Democracy: “An interview with Maia Sandu, the politician at the heart of Moldova’s quiet revolution. With Moldova’s oligarch-in-chief now out of the country, what are the prospects for change? We speak to Maia Sandu, Moldova’s new prime minister.

Dumitru Minzarari, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “New Moldovan Government Handing Control Over Security Services to Pro-Russian President Dodon”

Frank Suyak, DW: “Moldova’s oligarch-in-chief has fled, will Europe’s poorest country remain a ‘captured’ state? The Democratic Party of Moldova is no longer in power and its former leader, Vladimir Plahotniuc, has fled the country. What are the prospects for change?”

Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 

Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus. 

Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “Russia has said that Belarus should speed up the process of create a union state between the two countries if it wants to secure a loan of 630 million US dollars.”

Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Belarus-Russia Integration: No Decision Yet”

Belsat: “Minsk seeks help from China as Russia withholds loans until further integration”

Belsat: “Council of Europe interested in expanding cooperation with Belarus – MPs”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May, but their brutal response to protests could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1142856804633911296

Euractiv: “Thousands of anti-government protesters rallied on Monday (24 June) in the Georgian capital for the fifth consecutive day as the increasingly unpopular ruling party’s promise of sweeping reforms failed to appease mass demonstrations.”

Agenda.ge: “US Embassy calls for ‘dialogue among all political actors’ amid Tbilisi protests”

DW: “Russian travel embargo worsens; flights from Georgia banned. After banning Russian airlines from flying to Georgia, Moscow is to stop its southern neighbor’s airlines from landing at its airports. Relations slumped this week when anti-Russia protests erupted in Tbilisi.”

Upcoming Elections
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019 (following presidential elections earlier this year)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate largely centers on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.

Zelensky is new to politics, so his Servant of the People party does not currently have any seats in the Rada, but will be running candidates in the parliamentary polls with a hope of securing a majority. Poroshenko’s bloc won the most seats in the 2014 parliamentary elections, judged by observers to be competitive and credible, but because elections could not take place in Crimea and parts of Donbas, only 423 out of 450 seats were filled. The pro-Russian Opposition Bloc only won 29 seats, and support for pro-Moscow politicians has declined in the face of Russian aggression.

Kyiv Post: “More than 80 percent of Ukrainians planning to vote in Rada elections”

Brian Mefford, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “Five Predictions for Ukraine’s Parliamentary Elections”

Reuters: “Ukraine president’s party leads poll ahead of July election”

Denys Krasnikov, Kyiv Post: “New political party Golos, spearheaded by rock star Svyatoslav Vakarchuk, enjoys more support from Ukrainians than European Solidarity, the rebranded party of ex-President Petro Poroshenko, according to the latest polls.”

Roman Goncharenko, DW: “Zelenskiy likes to come across as an affable guy. The 41-year-old surrounds himself with young, hip, middle-class Ukrainians. None of the Servant candidates running for parliament have any prior experience of working in the legislature. Most are between 35 and 45 years old, used to work in the private sector, and are largely unknown to the electorate.”

Vitalii Rybak, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert: “What Ukraine’s New Parties Bring to the Table”

Russia Local and Gubernatorial – September 8, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation

Russian elections are neither free nor fair, and viable genuine opposition candidates are frequently barred from running. Opposition politicians, civil society activists, and citizens who protest are routinely harassed and arrested. Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party has a stranglehold on Russia’s politics. Putin won last year’s stage-managed presidential election against a cast of absurd characters after credible opponents were banned from the contest.

However, in last year’s gubernatorial elections, United Russia lost four out of the 22 governorships up for election. Even though the winners came from “Potemkin opposition” parties that do not genuinely oppose Putin, the fact that United Russia failed to make a clean sweep could signify a decline in Putin’s popularity. The 16 governorships up for election this year include St. Petersburg, where Putin got his political start, and the strategic Arctic port of Murmansk. The Moscow City Duma is also up for election.

RFE/RL: “The coordinator of Russian opposition politician and anti-corruption campaigner Aleksei Navalny’s St. Petersburg office says has been beaten by an unknown attacker. Aleksandr Shurshev said on June 26 that he was attacked as he tried to document long lines at the election commission office in the St. Petersburg’s Yekateringofsky municipal district.”

Dmitry Volchek and Robert Coalson, RFE/RL: “Dirty Tricks: Navalny Aide’s Bid For Moscow Duma Seat Brings Out The Worst”

Meduza: “Beyond Golunov:  How Moscow and St. Petersburg protested against police overreach and political repressions on June 23”

Moldova Local – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic

Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists remarkably formed a surprise coalitiongovernment to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.

The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.

Vladimir Socor, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Moldova’s Regime Change: End of an Era, Uncertain New Start”

RFE/RL: “All six judges at Moldova’s Constitutional Court have stepped down amid calls for their resignation following decisions made by the court that fueled a political crisis in the ex-Soviet country.”

Maxim Edwards, Open Democracy: “An interview with Maia Sandu, the politician at the heart of Moldova’s quiet revolution. With Moldova’s oligarch-in-chief now out of the country, what are the prospects for change? We speak to Maia Sandu, Moldova’s new prime minister.

Frank Suyak, DW: “Moldova’s oligarch-in-chief has fled, will Europe’s poorest country remain a ‘captured’ state? The Democratic Party of Moldova is no longer in power and its former leader, Vladimir Plahotniuc, has fled the country. What are the prospects for change?”

Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – October 2020 
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)

Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus. 

Dominik Istrate, Emerging Europe: “Russia has said that Belarus should speed up the process of create a union state between the two countries if it wants to secure a loan of 630 million US dollars.”

Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation’s Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Belarus-Russia Integration: No Decision Yet”

Belsat: “Minsk seeks help from China as Russia withholds loans until further integration”

Belsat: “Council of Europe interested in expanding cooperation with Belarus – MPs”

Georgia Parliamentary – October 2020
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic

Georgia holds competitive but imperfect elections. The eccentric oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili runs the show from behind the scenes, despite holding no official office. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakasvili’s pro-European, pro-NATO United National Movement. Ivanishvili’s candidate, Salome Zurabishvili, won last year’s disputed presidential election. Georgian Dream did well in by-elections in May, but their brutal response to protests could harm the coalition ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.

Euractiv: “Thousands of anti-government protesters rallied on Monday (24 June) in the Georgian capital for the fifth consecutive day as the increasingly unpopular ruling party’s promise of sweeping reforms failed to appease mass demonstrations.”

Agenda.ge: “US Embassy calls for ‘dialogue among all political actors’ amid Tbilisi protests”

DW: “Russian travel embargo worsens; flights from Georgia banned. After banning Russian airlines from flying to Georgia, Moscow is to stop its southern neighbor’s airlines from landing at its airports. Relations slumped this week when anti-Russia protests erupted in Tbilisi.”

The Year Ahead: Eurasia
On deck: Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Kazakhstan local (September); Russia local (September 8); Moldova local (October 20); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)


Georgia’s Parliament building during the 2003 Rose Revolution. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Zaraza

 

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.

 

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