Middle East

May 28, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Presidential Administration of Iran. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Tasnim News Agency (CC BY 4.0)

Upcoming Middle East Elections

Iran Snap Presidential Election: June 28, 2024

Michael Lipin, Voice of America (May 27, 2024): The main contenders to replace Raisi in Iran’s snap presidential election

Patrick Wintour, The Guardian (May 26, 2024): Iran presidential election: up to 20 possible contenders gear up for battle

Andrew Parasiliti and Ali Hashem, Al-Monitor (May 24, 2024): Trump looms over Iranian presidential election: Ali Hashem reports from Tehran that relations with the United States may be a defining issue for next Iranian president.

Haleh Esfandiari, Wilson Center (May 22, 2024): Iran’s New Interim President

Patrick Clawson, Washington Institute for Near East Policy (May 22, 2024): Iran’s Emergency Election Will Signal Khamenei’s Intentions

Tunisia Presidential Election: September or October 2024 (due)

Lamine Benghazi, Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (May 28, 2024): Tunisia’s 2024 Presidential Race: Elections, No Elections, and Under What Conditions?

Al Jazeera (May 25, 2024): ‘Down with dictatorship’: Tunisians rally against gov’t crackdown on media

Heba Saleh and Laura Dubois, Financial Times (May 23, 2024): Tunisia cracks down on dissent ahead of vote

Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Elections: Postponed from June 10, 2024

Dana Taib Meny, The New Arab (May 23, 2024): Iraqi Kurdistan elections to be postponed again amid minority seat disputes and political deadlock

Past Middle East Elections

Egypt Presidential Election: December 10-12, 2023

AP (May 27, 2024): An Egyptian court upholds a prison sentence for the activist who challenged the president

DW (May 27, 2024): Egypt sentences presidential challenger to jail, hard labor

June 2024 Election Outlook

The biggest thing to watch this month: India. India’s massive parliamentary election – reportedly the biggest election in world history, with close to a billion voters – has been going on since April 19 and the final phase of voting takes place on June 1. Results are expected to be announced on June 4. Narendra Modi’s BJP is widely expected to win a third term, but it is worth watching the margin of victory.

June 1

India Parliamentary Elections, Phase 7

Iceland Presidential Election

South Africa Presidential Election (by parliament, following May 29 parliamentary elections)

June 2

Mexico General Elections

Serbia, Belgrade Assembly Elections

June 6-9

European Union Elections

June 7

Ireland Local Elections

June 8

Malta Local Elections

Italy Local Elections and Piedmont Regional Elections

June 9

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections

San Marino Parliamentary Elections

Belgium Parliamentary and Regional Elections

Romania Local Elections

Germany, Local Elections in Some States

Hungary Local Elections

Cyprus Local Elections

June 11

United States, Las Vegas Mayoral Election

June 22

Italy, Local Elections Second Round

June 26

Thailand, Indirect Senate Elections

June 28

Mongolia Parliamentary and Local Elections

Iran, Snap Presidential Election (following death of president)

June 29

Mauritania Presidential Election

Voting in Mexico’s 2021 elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/ProtoplasmaKid (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Africa

January 29, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Voters in line during Senegal’s 2019 elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/VOA Seydina Aba Gueye (public domain)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Senegal Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 25, 2024

Melissa Chemam, RFI (January 23, 2024): Human Rights Watch warns of Senegal repression ahead of elections

AP (January 22, 2024): Two opposition leaders in Senegal are excluded from the final list of presidential candidates

Africanews and AP (January 22, 2024): Senegal: Sonko, Wade not listed among official candidates of Feb.25 presidential polls

South Africa General Elections: Spring 2024

Gerald Imray, AP (January 29, 2024): South Africa’s ruling ANC suspends former president Zuma for backing a new party in elections

Bloomberg (January 23, 2024): Support for ANC will continue to decline following South Africa elections, pollster predicts

Chad Presidential Election: By October 2024 (delays possible)

Reuters (January 24, 2024): Putin Meets Chad Junta Leader as Russia Competes With France in Africa

AFP (January 23, 2024): Chad President Heads to Moscow for Talks With Putin

Tanzania General Elections: October 2025 (due)

Stratfor (January 25, 2024): Opposition Rallies Test Tanzania’s Commitment to Political Liberalization

RFI (January 24, 2024): Tanzania’s opposition rallies against ‘cosmetic’ electoral reforms

Past Africa Elections

Comoros General Elections: January 14, 2024

Faiza Soule Youssouf, AFP (January 24, 2024): Comoros court confirms president’s re-election, opposition cries foul

Democratic Republic of the Congo General Elections: December 20-27, 2023

International Crisis Group (January 26, 2024): DR Congo: A Full Plate of Challenges after a Turbulent Vote

Liberia General Elections: October 10 and November 14, 2023

Charles Wratto, The Conversation (January 23, 2024): Liberia transferred power peacefully again: 3 reasons the calm is holding, and one red flag

RFI (January 22, 2024): Liberia’s new president Boakai vows to tackle graft as he takes the helm

Mark N. Mengonfia and Chinedu Asadu, AP (January 22, 2024): Liberia’s new president takes office with a promise to ‘rescue’ Africa’s oldest republic

Regional Analysis

Matthew Kendrick, GZERO (January 29, 2024): ECOWAS “officially” loses three junta-run states

DW (January 28, 2024): Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger quit ECOWAS

The Economist (January 25, 2024): African governments are using courts to sway elections

Americas

January 27, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Voters in El Salvador in 2015. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Presidencia El Salvador (CC0 1.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

El Salvador Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 4, 2024 and Local Elections: March 3, 2024

Stratfor (January 24, 2024): How El Salvador’s 2024 Presidential Election Could Play Out

Mexico Presidential, Legislative, Gubernatorial, and Local Elections: June 2, 2024

Leonardo Beltrán, Wilson Center (January 22, 2024): The Role of Pemex in the 2024 Elections

James Bosworth, World Politics Review (January 22, 2024): New Corruption Allegations Come at a Bad Time for AMLO

Aida Pelaez-fernandez, Reuters (January 22, 2024): Business leaders flag upcoming election, security as top concerns in Mexico

Carmen Morán Breña, El País (January 20, 2024): Economy and insecurity take center stage as Sheinbaum and Gálvez vie for Mexico’s presidency

Venezuela Presidential Election: Due in 2024 (no date set)

Regina Garcia Cano, AP (January 27, 2024): US condemns ban on Venezuelan opposition leader’s candidacy and puts sanctions relief under review

CNN (January 27, 2024): Venezuela’s opposition accuses Maduro government of ‘repressive escalation’ as court upholds election ban on candidate

Alonso Moleiro, El País (January 26, 2024): Maduro announces military purge and declares Barbados agreements with the opposition ‘mortally wounded’

Fabiola Zerpa and Andreina Itriago Acosta, Bloomberg (January 25, 2024): Venezuela Socialists Officially Name Maduro as Their Candidate

Christopher Sabatini, Foreign Policy (January 25, 2024): The White House’s Big Gamble on Venezuela

Regina Garcia Cano, AP (January 24, 2024): Dueling factions demonstrate in Caracas as Venezuela’s presidential race heats up

Canada General Elections: By October 20, 2025 (earlier elections possible)

Craig McCulloch, Voice of America (January 26, 2024): Canada Starts Inquiry Into Election Interference by China, Others

Vipal Monga, Wall Street Journal (January 24, 2024): India Named in Canadian Inquiry Into Election Interference: Inclusion alongside China and Russia threatens to worsen India’s already rocky relationship with Canada

Past Americas Elections

Argentina General Elections: October 22 and November 19, 2023

CNN (January 24, 2024): Argentine unions hold general strike against new leader Milei’s austerity policies

Colombia Presidential Elections: May-June 2022 (next presidential election due in 2026)

The Economist (January 25, 2024): Colombia’s first avowedly left-wing president is mired in scandal

Asia

January 26, 2024

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Tuvalu’s parliament building. Photo credit: Wikimedia/lirneasia (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

Tuvalu General Elections: January 26, 2024

Shaun Turton, Nikkei Asia (January 26, 2024): Tuvalu votes as election spotlights climate migration, Taiwan ties

AP (January 25, 2024): Voting begins in tiny Tuvalu in election that reverberates from China to Australia

Rurika Imahashi, The Diplomat (January 25, 2025): Tuvalu’s Taiwan ties under pressure as election looms

Indonesia General Elections: February 14, 2024

The Diplomat (January 25, 2024): The Maritime Implications of Indonesia’s Presidential Election: Maritime affairs have not been a major campaign issue, but the three candidates’ policies could have far-reaching implications on Indonesian security.

Nikkei Asia (January 23, 2024): Indonesian election highlights young voters’ employment concerns: Jokowi’s successor faces reform challenge to create middle-class jobs

Reuters (January 20, 2024): Indonesia’s Prabowo strengthens lead in election polls

Cambodia Senate Elections (indirect): February 25, 2024

Katrin Travouillon, East Asia Forum (January 23, 2024): Democracy remains a waiting game under Cambodia’s Hun Manet

South Korea Legislative Elections: April 10, 2024

Michelle Ye Hee Lee, Washington Post (January 25, 2024): S. Korean lawmaker struck in head, weeks after opposition leader’s stabbing

Kelly Ng, BBC (January 25, 2024): South Korea: First lady’s Dior bag shakes country’s leadership

Ju-min Park, Reuters (January 24, 2024): ‘Dior bag scandal’ lands South Korea’s Yoon, ruling party in disarray ahead of election

Kim Tong-hyung, The Diplomat (January 24, 2024): North Korea Appears to Demolish ‘Reunification Arch’ as Kim Jong Un Turns Against Ties With South

India Parliamentary Elections: May 2024

Helen Regan and Rhea Mogul, CNN (January 22, 2024): Modi hails a new ‘divine India’ as he inaugurates controversial Hindu temple ahead of nationwide elections

Sri Lanka Presidential Election: September/October 2024 (due)

Neil DeVotta, East Asia Forum (January 25, 2024): Electoral uncertainty casts a shadow over Sri Lanka’s progress

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Nepal National Assembly (upper house) Elections: January 25, 2024

PTI (January 26, 2024): Nepal’s ruling alliance wins 18 of 19 seats in National Assembly polls: With the results of the NA election, the CPN-Maoist Centre will be the largest party with 18 seats in the 59-seat National Assembly

Taiwan Presidential and Legislative Elections: January 13, 2024

Naiyu Kuo and Jennifer Staats, United States Institute of Peace (January 24, 2024): Taiwan’s Democracy Prevailed Despite China’s Election Interference

Bhutan Parliamentary Election Runoffs: January 9, 2024

Aditya Gowdara Shivamurthy, Observer Research Foundation (January 22, 2024): Bhutan elections: What is at stake for India?

Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: January 7, 2024

Mubashar Hasan, The Diplomat (January 26, 2024): Instability Looms Over Post-Election Bangladesh

Syful Islam, Nikkei Asia (January 26, 2024): ‘India Out’ campaign heats up in Bangladesh after lopsided election

Crisis24 (January 23, 2024): Bangladesh: Political gatherings likely to continue nationwide through at least early February following recent general elections

Alexander B. Gray, The National Interest (January 22, 2024): The U.S. Should Remain Engaged in Bangladesh

Prothom Alo (January 19, 2024): Bangladesh’s elections weren’t free and fair, US repeats