May 17, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
A beach in Mauritius. Although Mauritius has long been a free democracy, there has recently been a worrying trend of authoritarian backsliding. The country is due to hold local elections in June, but delays are likely. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Romeodesign (CC BY 3.0)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland has scheduled its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections for May 31, 2021. Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections.
Somaliland celebrates 30 years of de facto independence in May 2021. More
Taiwan Times (May 12, 2021): Taiwan Ally Somaliland To Release Detained Election Candidates
Ethiopia General Elections: June 5, 2021 (Postponed indefinitely)
Ethiopia has once again postponed its general elections that had been scheduled for June 5, 2021, the latest of several postponements. These elections are taking place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. More
BBC News (May 17, 2021): Why Ethiopia election delay could spark new crisis
Reuters (May 17, 2021): Social media restrictions lifted in Ethiopia, NetBlocks says
AP (May 15, 2021): Ethiopia again delays national election amid deadly tensions
Nike Ching, Voice of America (May 11, 2021): Ethiopia Must Set Right Environment for Election, US Says
Martina Schwikowski, DW (May 11, 2021): Ethiopian election expected to deepen rifts
Mauritius Municipal Elections: Due by June 2021 (delay possible)
Mauritius is due to hold municipal elections in June 2021. The country is generally considered a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. However, recent protests have raised the political temperature, and some have raised concerns about authoritarian backsliding. More
Roukaya Kasenally, African Arguments (May 12, 2021): Mauritius: A picture perfect democracy’s fall from grace
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election: July 2021 (due)
São Tomé and Príncipe is due to hold a presidential election in July 2021. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy. More
LUSA (May 14, 2021): Sao Tome: Governing party presidential candidate pledges ‘stability, governability’
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia has scheduled general elections for August 12, 2021. Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. However, there are fears that Lungu could try to rig the 2021 elections. More
James Kunda, Andalou Agency (May 12, 2021): Electoral campaign kicks off in Zambia: 19 candidates including incumbent Edgar Lungu are in fray for presidential polls scheduled on Aug. 12
Committee to Protect Journalists (May 12, 2021): Zambian columnist Sishuwa Sishuwa could face sedition charge for opinion piece on election
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. More
Wayne Sussman, Daily Maverick (May 16, 2021): Election battles in the big metros – City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni
Reuters (May 14, 2021): Suspended top S.African ruling party official takes Ramaphosa to court
Mogomotsi Magome, AP (May 11, 2021): South Africa’s president suspends party secretary-general
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (May 11, 2021): South Africa’s Ruling Party Faces Funding Squeeze Ahead of Vote
Nigeria Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 23, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds elections in February 2023, but potential candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Anambra State, in the country’s southeast, holds a gubernatorial election in November.
Nwokoye Mpi, The Africa Report (May 17, 2021): Nigeria’s Anambra State election will show where 2023 winds blowing
Somalia Presidential Election: Postponed
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believe that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. More
Aggrey Mutambo and Patrick Ilunga, The East African (May 17, 2021): Kenya-Somalia quarrel threatens AU efforts to broker political deal
Selam Tadesse Demissie and Andrews Atta-Asamoah, ISS Today (May 14, 2021): Trust deficit keeps Somalia’s leaders at loggerheads
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African (May 12, 2021): Amisom to get mandate extension to December
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Stratfor (May 17, 2021): A Kenyan Court Blocks the Government’s Plan to Reshape Itself
Gautam Bhatia, The Elephant (May 17, 2021): The Kenyan High Court’s BBI Judgement: An Instant Classic
Ferdinand Omondi, BBC News (May 14, 2021): Kenya’s BBI blocked in scathing court verdict for President Kenyatta
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Committee to Protect journalists (May 14, 2021): Angola suspends 3 TV channels for alleged improper registration
Estelle Maussion, The Africa Report (May 13, 2021): Lourenço’s Angola: The winners, the losers and the escape artists
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 23, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022.
Most recently, the arrest of an opposition leader sparked protests. More
Marième Soumaré, Jeune Afrique (May 13, 2021 – in French): Elections in Senegal: Could Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall be candidates?
APA (May 12, 2021 – in French): Senegal: disagreement on the date of local elections in the spotlight
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
AFP (May 14, 2021): Mali’s interim prime minister to form new government
Africanews (May 12, 2021): Observers from ECOWAS regional bloc in Mali to assess government’s progress
Past Africa Elections
Chad Presidential Election: April 11, 2021
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian (May 17, 2021): ‘On bad days, we don’t eat’: Hunger grows for thousands displaced by conflict in Chad
RFI (May 16, 2021): Chad: a possible candidacy of the transitional Prime Minister worries the MPS
Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy (May 13, 2021): Biden Defaults to ‘War on Terror Approach’ to Chad
Line Engbo Gissel and Troels Burchall Henningsen, The Conversation (May 12, 2021): Legacy of Chad’s gatekeeper politics lives on beyond Déby – and carries grave risks
Eline Rosenhart, Moshe Dayan Center (May 11, 2021): The Death of Chad’s Warrior President: What it Means for the Region and the World
Djibouti Presidential Election: April 9, 2021
Djibouti held a presidential election on April 9, 2021. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who has been president since 1999, won a fifth term amid opposition boycotts and protests. Under Guelleh, Djibouti (which is strategically located on the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint) has been pivoting toward China, although the U.S. and other democracies continue to have military bases there. More
John Hursh, African Arguments (May 11, 2021): What Guelleh missed in trying to turn Djibouti into the “Singapore of Africa”
Uganda General Elections: January 14, 2021
Uganda held presidential and legislative elections on January 14, 2021. President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986, but this time faced possibly his biggest challenge yet in the form of 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine. Following the elections, the government launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition. More
Bobi Wine, The Guardian (May 14, 2021): Young Ugandans are being brutally oppressed. They must be allowed a voice
Faustine Ngila, Daily Monitor Uganda (May 14, 2021): Africa is paying heavily for Internet shutdowns
Sophie Neiman, World Politics Review (May 12, 2021): Uganda’s Museveni Unleashes a Reign of Terror
Al Jazeera (May 12, 2021): Uganda’s President Museveni takes oath to kick off his sixth term
Central African Republic Partial Legislative Elections and Runoffs: March 14, 2021
The Central African Republic (CAR) held presidential and partial legislative elections on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.
These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. More
Grégoire Sauvage, France24 (May 13, 2021 – in French): Who is the French man arrested in Bangui with “a war arsenal”?
Christian Eboulé, TV5Monde (May 13, 2021 – in French): Central African Republic: the arrest of a French national, a symbol of Franco-Russian rivalry?
Jean Ferand Koena, AP (May 11, 2021): French man arrested in Central African Republic
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – February 9, 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Regina Sondo, Mail and Guardian (May 17, 2021): Cameroon’s democratic repositioning: Is the republic now a de facto monarchy?
Africa Elections in 2021 and 2022
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Gambia Constitutional Referendum: June 5, 2021
Mauritius Local Elections: June 2021 (due – delay likely)
Kenya Constitutional Referendum: June/July 2021 (delay or cancellation likely)
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Election: July 18, 2021
Zambia Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 12, 2021
South Africa Municipal Elections: October 27, 2021
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Sudan General Elections: Late 2022 (due)
Ethiopia General Elections: Postponed indefinitely
Somalia Elections: Postponed indefinitely
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Africa
Posted: May 18, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
May 17, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Somaliland has scheduled its long-overdue parliamentary and local elections for May 31, 2021. Somaliland has de facto but not internationally-recognized independence from Somalia, and has a much more developed democracy, with direct elections.
Somaliland celebrates 30 years of de facto independence in May 2021. More
Taiwan Times (May 12, 2021): Taiwan Ally Somaliland To Release Detained Election Candidates
Ethiopia General Elections: June 5, 2021 (Postponed indefinitely)
Ethiopia has once again postponed its general elections that had been scheduled for June 5, 2021, the latest of several postponements. These elections are taking place in the context of increasing ethnic violence that has reached crisis levels. More
BBC News (May 17, 2021): Why Ethiopia election delay could spark new crisis
Reuters (May 17, 2021): Social media restrictions lifted in Ethiopia, NetBlocks says
AP (May 15, 2021): Ethiopia again delays national election amid deadly tensions
Nike Ching, Voice of America (May 11, 2021): Ethiopia Must Set Right Environment for Election, US Says
Martina Schwikowski, DW (May 11, 2021): Ethiopian election expected to deepen rifts
Mauritius Municipal Elections: Due by June 2021 (delay possible)
Mauritius is due to hold municipal elections in June 2021. The country is generally considered a free democracy that has seen multiple peaceful transitions of power following competitive elections, but politics are dominated by a handful of powerful families. However, recent protests have raised the political temperature, and some have raised concerns about authoritarian backsliding. More
Roukaya Kasenally, African Arguments (May 12, 2021): Mauritius: A picture perfect democracy’s fall from grace
São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election: July 2021 (due)
São Tomé and Príncipe is due to hold a presidential election in July 2021. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy. More
LUSA (May 14, 2021): Sao Tome: Governing party presidential candidate pledges ‘stability, governability’
Zambia General Elections: August 12, 2021
Zambia has scheduled general elections for August 12, 2021. Zambia used to be a model democracy in the region, with regular, competitive elections and a vibrant civil society. However, under Edgar Lungu, elected in 2015 to complete the term of Michael Sata (who died in office), Zambia began to regress toward authoritarianism. The 2016 elections were marred by political violence and allegations of vote-rigging but ultimately judged credible. However, there are fears that Lungu could try to rig the 2021 elections. More
James Kunda, Andalou Agency (May 12, 2021): Electoral campaign kicks off in Zambia: 19 candidates including incumbent Edgar Lungu are in fray for presidential polls scheduled on Aug. 12
Committee to Protect Journalists (May 12, 2021): Zambian columnist Sishuwa Sishuwa could face sedition charge for opinion piece on election
South Africa Local Elections: October 27, 2021
South Africa will hold local elections on October 27, 2021. Voters will elect councils for all municipalities in each of the country’s nine provinces. More
Wayne Sussman, Daily Maverick (May 16, 2021): Election battles in the big metros – City of Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni
Reuters (May 14, 2021): Suspended top S.African ruling party official takes Ramaphosa to court
Mogomotsi Magome, AP (May 11, 2021): South Africa’s president suspends party secretary-general
S’thembile Cele, Bloomberg (May 11, 2021): South Africa’s Ruling Party Faces Funding Squeeze Ahead of Vote
Nigeria Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021, followed by Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 23, 2023
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, holds elections in February 2023, but potential candidates have already begun jockeying for position. Since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
Anambra State, in the country’s southeast, holds a gubernatorial election in November.
Nwokoye Mpi, The Africa Report (May 17, 2021): Nigeria’s Anambra State election will show where 2023 winds blowing
Somalia Presidential Election: Postponed
Somalia was supposed to hold an indirect presidential election on February 8, 2021, following indirect parliamentary elections in December 2020. However, the elections have been delayed, and the term of President Mohamed “Farmaajo” has expired, leaving Somalia in a political and constitutional crisis. In April 2021, Farmaajo sought to extend his term for two years, but parliament voted to reject the extension.
While the United States and the EU threatened sanctions, some analysts believe that the delay could pave the way for direct elections. However, critics dismiss this idea as a ruse to justify Farmaajo’s extension of his term. More
Aggrey Mutambo and Patrick Ilunga, The East African (May 17, 2021): Kenya-Somalia quarrel threatens AU efforts to broker political deal
Selam Tadesse Demissie and Andrews Atta-Asamoah, ISS Today (May 14, 2021): Trust deficit keeps Somalia’s leaders at loggerheads
Aggrey Mutambo, The East African (May 12, 2021): Amisom to get mandate extension to December
Kenya General Elections: August 9, 2022
Kenya is due to hold general elections on August 9, 2022. The last elections, in August 2017, were disputed, and the presidential poll was re-run in October 2017. President Uhuru Kenyatta won re-election after opposition leader Raila Odinga encouraged his supporters to boycott the re-run. Kenyan politics is highly polarized with a strong ethnic component.
Stratfor (May 17, 2021): A Kenyan Court Blocks the Government’s Plan to Reshape Itself
Gautam Bhatia, The Elephant (May 17, 2021): The Kenyan High Court’s BBI Judgement: An Instant Classic
Ferdinand Omondi, BBC News (May 14, 2021): Kenya’s BBI blocked in scathing court verdict for President Kenyatta
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due) and Local Elections: Overdue, no date set
Angola, which has never held free elections, and has been ruled by the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), a former armed group, since independence in 1976, is due to hold legislative elections in August 2022. In addition, the country is overdue to hold its first-ever local elections. These elections have already been delayed multiple times (most recently in September 2020), and no date has been set. Meanwhile, COVID-19 provides an excuse for additional delays. In short, it is unclear when – or whether – the local elections will actually happen. More
Committee to Protect journalists (May 14, 2021): Angola suspends 3 TV channels for alleged improper registration
Estelle Maussion, The Africa Report (May 13, 2021): Lourenço’s Angola: The winners, the losers and the escape artists
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2022
Senegal has set local elections – originally due in June 2019 but delayed several times – for January 23, 2022. Meanwhile, legislative elections are due in July 2022.
Most recently, the arrest of an opposition leader sparked protests. More
Marième Soumaré, Jeune Afrique (May 13, 2021 – in French): Elections in Senegal: Could Karim Wade and Khalifa Sall be candidates?
APA (May 12, 2021 – in French): Senegal: disagreement on the date of local elections in the spotlight
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Mali has set presidential and legislative elections for February 27, 2022, following the August 2020 coup. In the coup, soldiers removed President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, dissolved parliament (which had just been elected in April, in elections marred by fraud and intimidation) and established a transitional government. Before that, there will be a constitutional referendum on October 31, 2021 and local and regional elections on December 26.
AFP (May 14, 2021): Mali’s interim prime minister to form new government
Africanews (May 12, 2021): Observers from ECOWAS regional bloc in Mali to assess government’s progress
Past Africa Elections
Chad Presidential Election: April 11, 2021
Chad held a presidential election on April 11, 2021. President Idriss Déby, seized power in a rebellion in 1990, won a sixth term. However, on April 20, he was killed by rebels.
Although the country holds elections, there has never been a change in power by a free or fair vote. Long-delayed long-delayed parliamentary elections had been set for October 24, 2021 and local elections for April 2022. Originally due in 2015, the legislative elections have been delayed multiple times. However, Deby’s death could lead to further delays – the military has said it plans to rule the country for 18 months. More
Zeinab Mohammed Salih, The Guardian (May 17, 2021): ‘On bad days, we don’t eat’: Hunger grows for thousands displaced by conflict in Chad
RFI (May 16, 2021): Chad: a possible candidacy of the transitional Prime Minister worries the MPS
Robbie Gramer, Foreign Policy (May 13, 2021): Biden Defaults to ‘War on Terror Approach’ to Chad
Line Engbo Gissel and Troels Burchall Henningsen, The Conversation (May 12, 2021): Legacy of Chad’s gatekeeper politics lives on beyond Déby – and carries grave risks
Eline Rosenhart, Moshe Dayan Center (May 11, 2021): The Death of Chad’s Warrior President: What it Means for the Region and the World
Djibouti Presidential Election: April 9, 2021
Djibouti held a presidential election on April 9, 2021. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh, who has been president since 1999, won a fifth term amid opposition boycotts and protests. Under Guelleh, Djibouti (which is strategically located on the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint) has been pivoting toward China, although the U.S. and other democracies continue to have military bases there. More
John Hursh, African Arguments (May 11, 2021): What Guelleh missed in trying to turn Djibouti into the “Singapore of Africa”
Uganda General Elections: January 14, 2021
Uganda held presidential and legislative elections on January 14, 2021. President Yoweri Museveni has held power since 1986, but this time faced possibly his biggest challenge yet in the form of 37-year-old pop star Bobi Wine. Following the elections, the government launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition. More
Bobi Wine, The Guardian (May 14, 2021): Young Ugandans are being brutally oppressed. They must be allowed a voice
Faustine Ngila, Daily Monitor Uganda (May 14, 2021): Africa is paying heavily for Internet shutdowns
Sophie Neiman, World Politics Review (May 12, 2021): Uganda’s Museveni Unleashes a Reign of Terror
Al Jazeera (May 12, 2021): Uganda’s President Museveni takes oath to kick off his sixth term
Central African Republic Partial Legislative Elections and Runoffs: March 14, 2021
The Central African Republic (CAR) held presidential and partial legislative elections on December 27, 2020 in the midst of a worsening security situation. Rebels disrupted voting in some areas, so consequently, those constituencies held the first round of their legislative elections on March 14, 2021. In addition, some of the constituencies that did vote on December 27 held runoff elections for their legislators.
These elections took place in the context of a humanitarian crisis and a crisis of governance. Sectarian clashes have been taking place since 2013. Moreover, Russia has ramped up its political and military involvement in exchange for mining rights. More
Grégoire Sauvage, France24 (May 13, 2021 – in French): Who is the French man arrested in Bangui with “a war arsenal”?
Christian Eboulé, TV5Monde (May 13, 2021 – in French): Central African Republic: the arrest of a French national, a symbol of Franco-Russian rivalry?
Jean Ferand Koena, AP (May 11, 2021): French man arrested in Central African Republic
Cameroon Municipal, Legislative, and Regional – February 9, 2020 (delayed from October 2019)
Cameroon is in the midst of several crises. Anglophone separatists seek to form a new country called Ambazonia. The government has accused them of terrorism. The crisis is currently deadlocked, with neither side willing to make concessions, leaving half a million people displaced.
Cameroon also faces a political crisis. President Paul Biya, at age 85 the oldest ruler in Africa, won re-election in October 2018, after having already spent 36 years in power. The election was marred by accusations of ballot-stuffing and intimidation of the opposition. The opposition claims Maurice Kamto actually won the election, and opposition supports have staged a number of protests, which the government answered with a harsh crackdown and hundreds of arrests, including the arrest of Kamto himself. Biya’s Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) holds 142 out of 180 seats in the lower house. The Social Democratic Front is the main opposition in the legislature and hold 18 seats, while Kamto’s Cameroon Resistance Movement (MRC) holds one seat. The political crisis has an ethnic dimension.
Regina Sondo, Mail and Guardian (May 17, 2021): Cameroon’s democratic repositioning: Is the republic now a de facto monarchy?
Africa Elections in 2021 and 2022
Somaliland Parliamentary and Local Elections: May 31, 2021
Gambia Constitutional Referendum: June 5, 2021
Mauritius Local Elections: June 2021 (due – delay likely)
Kenya Constitutional Referendum: June/July 2021 (delay or cancellation likely)
Sao Tome and Principe Presidential Election: July 18, 2021
Zambia Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 12, 2021
South Africa Municipal Elections: October 27, 2021
Cabo Verde Presidential Election: October 17, 2021
Nigeria, Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: November 6, 2021
Gambia Presidential Election: December 4, 2021
Angola Local Elections: Overdue, might possibly happen in 2021
Senegal Local Elections: January 23, 2021
Mali Presidential and Legislative Elections: February 27, 2022 (following coup)
Burkina Faso Local Elections: May 2022 (due)
Republic of Congo Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Lesotho Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Senegal Legislative Elections: July 2022 (due)
Kenya Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 9, 2022
Angola Legislative Elections: August 2022 (due)
Sao Tome and Principe Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Equatorial Guinea Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Sudan General Elections: Late 2022 (due)
Ethiopia General Elections: Postponed indefinitely
Somalia Elections: Postponed indefinitely
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Americas
Last Updated: May 17, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
May 15, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Chile Local and Regional Elections: May 15 and 16, 2021 and Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 21, 2021 UPDATED May 17, 2021
Chile has delayed its local and regional elections, originally scheduled for April 11, 2021, to May. In addition, voters will elect all 155 members of a Constitutional Assembly, after a referendum in which Chileans voted to write a new constitution (and the new constitution will need to be approved by another referendum).
Chile is also due to hold presidential and legislative elections in November (with presidential primaries on July 4). These elections are taking place in the context of a year of protests and riots, including violent looting, arson, and vandalism. Furthermore, an intense debate over the new constitution continues. Incumbent president Sebastian Pinera, from the center-right Chile Vamos coalition, is not running for another term. He currently has low approval ratings, posing a challenge for his party’s candidate (who will be chosen in the July primary election). More
Buenos Aires Times (May 17, 2021): Chileans opt for ‘outsiders’ to draft post-Pinochet constitution
Eduardo Thomson and Valentina Fuentes, Bloomberg (May 17, 2021): Chilean Assets Slump as Government Suffers Crushing Vote Defeat
Fabian Cambero and Aislinn Laing, Reuters (May 16, 2021): Chileans head to polls to pick architects of new constitution
Catherine Osborn, Foreign Policy (May 14, 2021): Chile’s New Founding Mothers
Peru Presidential Runoff: June 6, 2021
Peru held general elections for April 11, 2021. These elections are coming on the heels of snap legislative elections that took place on January 26, 2020, and in the context of political turmoil – including the impeachment of President Martín Vizcarra and the subsequent “week of three presidents” – and an economic crisis brought on by COVID-19.
The presidential runoff will pit socialist Pedro Castillo against right-wing populist Keiko Fujimori, daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, who is currently in prison for various crimes (Keiko is also currently facing criminal charges). Castillo came out of nowhere to win the first round. However, none of the 18 candidates received more votes than the number of blank ballots cast – a sign of voters’ deep frustration. More
Manuel Farías, Reuters (May 16, 2021): Peru voter simulation shows Castillo and Fujimori now neck and neck
David Frum, The Atlantic (May 15, 2021): The Collapse of a Once-Promising Democracy
Eduardo Campos Lima, National Catholic Reporter (May 13, 2021): Like many in Peru, Catholics unsure who’ll get their vote for president
Mexico Legislative and Gubernatorial Elections: June 6, 2021
Mexico holds midterm legislative elections on June 6, 2021. These elections will be a key test for left-wing populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (frequently called AMLO) ahead of the 2024 presidential election. In addition, 15 of Mexico’s 31 states will hold gubernatorial elections. More
Mexico News Daily (May 14, 2021): Another candidate killed in second most violent election season since 2000
Alejandro García Magos, openDemocracy (May 13, 2021): Is AMLO undermining democracy in Mexico?
Luis Chaparro, Business Insider (May 13, 2021): One of the DEA’s most-wanted men wants to be mayor of some of Mexico’s most violent territory
Reuters (May 11, 2021): Mexico’s president backs probe of opposition governor candidates
Haiti Parliamentary Elections: September 19, 2021 and Presidential Election: Due in November 2021 (delays possible)
Haiti plans to hold long-overdue legislative elections on September 19, 2021, and also has a presidential election due later this year. However, the country is currently in a political crisis related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. The international community, including the United States government, has called on Haiti’s officials to set a date for elections and end the crisis.
Haiti plans to hold a constitutional referendum on June 27, although the United States has raised concerns that it would just cause more political turmoil while helping President Jovenel Moise consolidate power. More
Vincent Joos, World Politics Review (May 14, 2021): Haiti Is Slowly Becoming an Autocracy
Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald (May 12, 2021): US urges OAS to quickly organize mission to Haiti as nation’s turmoil deepens
Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021
Nicaragua holds general elections on November 7, 2021. President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for 20 years, will seek another term, and under his rule, Nicaragua has become increasingly authoritarian, with rule of law and fundamental freedoms under assault.
AP (May 13, 2021): Nicaragua ruling party ups advantages in run-up to elections
Reuters (May 12, 2021): Ahead of general election, Nicaraguan archdiocese urges that abortion not be an election issue
Honduras General Elections: November 2021
Honduras holds presidential and legislative elections in November, following the March 14 primaries. These elections are taking place in the context of polarization and a crisis of legitimacy sparked in part by increasing authoritarianism. The 2017 elections were turbulent, with at least 30 people dying in protests over allegations of fraud, and many believe that there is potential for fraud in the upcoming elections. More
Reuters (May 12, 2021): Taiwan says China seeking political gain with Honduras vaccine move
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Venezuela has scheduled regional and local elections for November 21, 2021. In December 2020, Venezuela held legislative elections despite members of the opposition and international community calling for a delay in order to ensure credible, fair elections. Ultimately, most of the opposition boycotted.
The opposition is likely to boycott the regional elections as well. These elections are taking place in the context of ongoing political, constitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. More
Reuters (May 13, 2021): Venezuela sets date for regional elections as opposition weighs participation
Colombia Presidential and Legislative Elections: Spring 2022 (due)
Colombia is due to hold presidential and legislative elections in spring 2022. Conservative Ivan Duque, elected president in 2018, is eligible to run for a second term.
Michael Stott, Financial Times (May 17, 2021): Colombia’s social unrest could spread across Latin America
Mauricio Cárdenas, Americas Quarterly (May 13, 2021): Colombia’s Crisis Is an Urban Youth Crisis. Old Solutions Won’t Work
Past Americas Elections
Ecuador Presidential Runoff: April 11, 2021
Ecuador held a presidential runoff on April 11, 2021. Conservative Guillermo Lasso, who edged out indigenous activist Yaku Pérez for a spot in the runoff, surprised many by decisively defeating left-wing economist Andrés Arauz, a protege of former president Rafael Correa (himself barred from running after being convicted of corruption). More
Reuters (May 16, 2021): Ecuador indigenous party wins National Assembly presidency, backed by Lasso
El Salvador Legislative and Local Elections: February 28, 2021
El Salvador held legislative and local elections on February 28, 2021. Allies of populist president Nayib Bukele won in a landslide, allowing him to consolidate his hold on the country with a legislative majority. Critics note growing authoritarianism. More
Kate Linthicum, Los Angeles Times (May 16, 2021): El Salvador’s millennial president is a man with one vision: Power
Will Freeman, Foreign Policy (May 12, 2021): In Central America, Rule of Law Is Under Attack. El Salvador Is the Latest Victim
Americas Elections in 2021 and 2022
Chile Local and Constitutional Assembly Elections: May 15-16, 2021
Mexico Midterm Legislative Elections and Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 6, 2021
Peru Presidential Runoff: June 6, 2021
Aruba Parliamentary Elections: June 25, 2021
Haiti Constitutional Referendum: June 27, 2021
Saint Lucia Parliamentary Elections: June 2021 (due – delays possible)
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: September 19, 2021
Paraguay Municipal Elections: October 10, 2021
Venezuela Regional and Local Elections: November 21, 2021
Nicaragua Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 7, 2021
Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections: November 14, 2021
Honduras Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 28, 2021
Guyana Local Elections: Due in 2021
Colombia Legislative Elections: March 13, 2022
Colombia Presidential Election: May 29, 2022
Bahamas Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Brazil Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Asia
Last Updated: May 16, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
May 14, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Samoa New Parliamentary Elections: May 21, 2021
Samoa held general elections on April 9, 2021, and the post-election situation has been rather eventful. A new opposition party, Fa’atuatua i le Atua Samoa ua Tasi (FAST, “Faith in the one true God”), posed a new challenge to the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), which has been in power since 1982. Ultimately, both FAST and HRPP got equal numbers of seats, with an independent MP breaking the tie and agreeing to support FAST. However, the plot continues to thicken as HRPP was given an additional female MP since the party did not meet its quota for women.
As a result of the deadlock, the prime minister has called new elections for May 21, although this is being challenged in court as some call the decision unconstitutional.
These elections are taking place in the context of controversy over proposed changes to the county’s constitutional framework and judiciary, involving questions of Samoan identity. More
Elizabeth Beattie, Nikkei Asia (May 14, 2021): Samoa’s historic election saga comes down to Supreme Court ruling
Fiona Ey, The Guardian (May 13, 2021): Samoa is experiencing a bloodless coup. The Pacific’s most stable democracy is in trouble
Radio New Zealand (May 13, 2021): Samoan prime minister claims to be ‘appointed by God’
Vietnam Legislative Elections: May 23, 2021
Vietnam, a one-party communist state, is due to hold legislative elections on May 23, 2021. For the most part, only candidates from the Communist Party of Vietnam and those who support it are able to run. In addition, dissidents face arrest and assault. More
Nguyen Khac Giang, East Asia Forum (May 12, 2021): Vietnam’s tug of war with China over Laos
Radio Free Asia (May 10, 2021): Vietnamese Social Media Platform Fined, Suspended Over Vague ‘Violations’
Mongolia Presidential Election: June 9, 2021
Mongolia, a free though imperfect democracy, has scheduled its presidential election for June 9, 2021, following parliamentary elections in June 2020 and local elections in October 2020. However, concerns have recently been raised about freedom and democracy. More
Bat-Orgil Altankhuyag and Fernando Casal Bértoa, The Diplomat (May 12, 2021): Are Presidential Elections Putting Mongolian Democracy in Peril?
Japan General Elections: On or Before October 22, 2021
Japan is due to hold general elections by October 22, 2021, but they could happen earlier. In addition, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who replaced Shinzo Abe last year, faces a leadership contest in his conservative Liberal Democratic Party ahead of the general elections.
Kawashima Shin, The Diplomat (May 13, 2021): Why Is Japan Hesitant to Improve Relations with South Korea?
Eric Johnston, Japan Times (May 9, 2021): Abe rallies conservative base amid speculation over comeback
Sintaro Ikeuchi, Nikkei Asia (May 9, 2021): Biden and Suga bond built on more than just countering China
Leika Kihara, Reuters (May 9, 2021): Japan PM Suga brushes aside calls for extra budget amid pandemic
Hong Kong Legislative Elections: December 19, 2021 (planned)
Hong Kong plans to hold elections to the Legislative Council on December 19, 2021, after more than a year’s delay. These elections are taking place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. More
Candice Chau, Hong Kong Free Press (May 13, 2021): Ex-assistant to pro-Beijing party chief and volunteer worker convicted of bid to buy votes
The Mainichi (May 13, 2021): Hong Kong passes law on allegiance pledge for local council members
Natalie Wong, South China Morning Press (May 12, 2021): Bill empowering Hong Kong government to unseat ‘unpatriotic’ district councillors sails through Legislative Council
Radio Free Asia (May 12, 2021): China’s National Security Law Could Spark Expat Exodus From Hong Kong
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
South Korea holds its presidential election on March 9, 2021. Recently, the conservative opposition won special mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan by a landslide, just a year after President Moon Jae-in’s center-left Democratic Party swept the legislature. Moreover, Moon’s approval rating is tanking.
The Economist (May 15, 2021): South Korea is pushing America for new talks with the North
Kuni Miyaki, Japan Times (May 13, 2021): Will Moon Jae-in’s appeasement policy work this time?
Donald Kirk, Foreign Policy (May 13, 2021): Moon Wants a Legacy on North Korea That Isn’t Coming
Philippines Presidential Election: May 9, 2022
In 2016, populist firebrand Rodrigo Duterte won the presidency, claiming to be an outsider. He has governed with an iron fist. Although he is banned from seeking a second term, critics fear that he will seek to consolidate illiberalism in the form of a handpicked successor. Meanwhile, a broad coalition of opposition figures have formed 1Sambayan (One Nation) in the hopes of defeating Duterte’s allies with a united front.
Dwight De Leon, Rappler (May 13, 2021): Imagining the 2022 PH elections: Proposals to change the way we vote
Julie M. Aurelio, Inquirer Philippines (May 9, 2021): West Philippine Sea will be key issue in 2022 elections
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Australia’s federal parliamentary elections are due by 2022, but snap elections could happen. Meanwhile, several states hold elections in 2021.
Tensions with China are rising as Australia’s federal government has cancelled several Belt and Road deals. More
Rob Harris and Anthony Galloway, Sydney Morning Herald (May 11, 2021): Billions of dollars set aside for possible election war chest
Sky News (May 10, 2021): ‘Australians aren’t worried about elections’: McCormack touts pathway to recovery
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022 and Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Cambodia is due to hold local elections in 2022 and general elections in 2023. Although Cambodia has held elections in the past that had some element of competition, the 2018 election – neither free nor fair – signified the closing of Cambodia’s political space. They have been called “the death of democracy.”
The main pro-democracy opposition, Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was dissolved and banned from fielding candidates, and its leader, Sam Rainsy, was sent into exile, so its supporters boycotted the polls, resulting in the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) taking 58 out of 62 seats in parliament, and allowing Prime Minister Hun Sen to consolidate even more power while extending his three decades in power.
Phorn Bopha, Al Jazeera (May 13, 2021): Jailed, in hiding, expelled: Cambodia’s Mother Nature crackdown
David Hutt, DW (May 12, 2021): COVID: Cambodia’s harsh lockdown aggravates food insecurity
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: 2023 (due – snap elections possible)
In December, Nepal’s prime minister decided to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. However, on February 23, the Supreme Court overturned the decision, cancelling the snap elections. Nonetheless, Nepal’s political crisis continues. More
AP (May 14, 2021): Nepal’s ousted prime minister to head minority government
Al Jazeera (May 10, 2021): Nepal PM loses confidence vote amid surging pandemic
Malaysia Possible Snap Parliamentary Elections
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin has indicated that he will call early general elections once the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Meanwhile, several of Malaysia’s states are due to hold elections in the next year. The country’s politics have been turbulent since the historic defeat of UMNO – which had ruled since 1957 – in the 2018 elections. UMNO is back in power but hanging on by a thread. More
Amy Chew, South China Morning Post (May 9, 2021): Can Malaysia’s DAP capture the Muslim and non-Chinese vote? Anthony Loke may be about to find out
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
India, Five State Assembly Elections and Various Local Elections: March – May 2021
Elections in four Indian states (West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala) and one union territory (Puducherry) begin on March 27 and will conclude on May 2. These elections, involving 180 million voters, will be a key test for the national parties, but regional parties also play a big role. Meanwhile, India is experiencing a massive COVID-19 outbreak.
In West Bengal, a former communist stronghold that has been led by Mamata Banerjee from the center-left Trinamool Congress party – currently the only female Indian state leader – for the last 10 years, a massive campaign push from Narendra Modi‘s BJP did not lead to a win. Banerjee will remain chief minister and Trinamool Congress won two-thirds of the seats. However, BJP jumped from three seats to 77 in the 294 seat legislature.
In Tamil Nadu, the leftist regional opposition party Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) defeated BJP’s regional allies, the India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). The incoming chief minister is one M.K. Stalin (who was in fact named after Joseph Stalin). Meanwhile, in Puducherry, Congress Party (India’s main national opposition party) suffered its worst defeat in a long time, winning only two seats. BJP’s regional ally AINRC won the most seats and will form the government – the first time BJP allies have led Puducherry.
In the other two states, incumbents remain in power. In Assam, BJP held its majority. In Kerala, the leftist coalition will remain. More
Salil Tripathi, Foreign Policy (May 12, 2021): India’s Pandemic Disaster Has Finally Slowed Modi’s Unstoppable Rise
Maldives Local Elections: April 10, 2021
Maldives held local elections for April 10, 2021, following a delay due to COVID-19. Voters will elect island, atoll, and city councils to three-year terms. The country was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky, but Maldivian democrats persevere.
On May 7, a bomb blast hospitalized former president Mohamed Nasheed, one of the main architects of democracy in Maldives. More
DW (May 13, 2021): Ex-Maldives president flies to Germany after bomb attack
Ajit Kumar Singh, Eurasia Review (May 11, 2021): Maldives: Increasing Vulnerabilities – Analysis
Zaheena Rasheed and Ahmed Naish, Al Jazeera (May 8, 2021): Who tried to kill Maldives’ ex-president Mohamed Nasheed?
Burma General Elections: November 8, 2020
Burma, also called Myanmar, held general elections on November 8, 2020. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide. However, on February 1, the military staged a coup, claiming election fraud (despite a lack of evidence). Protests against the coup continue. The military claims it will hold new elections will take place within two years. More
Committee for the Protection of Journalists (May 13, 2021): Myanmar sentences Democratic Voice of Burma reporter Min Nyo to 3 years in prison for criminal mutiny
Ei Hlaing, The Conversation (May 12, 2021): Myanmar’s anti-coup protesters defy rigid gender roles – and subvert stereotypes about women to their advantage
Voice of America (May 11, 2021): Aung San Suu Kyi to Appear in Court Later This Month, Lawyer Says
Asia/Pacific Elections in 2021 and 2022
Samoa Parliamentary Elections Take 2: May 21, 2021
Vietnam Parliamentary Elections: May 23, 2021
Mongolia Presidential Election: June 9, 2021
Macau Legislative Elections: September 2021 (ADD EXACT DATE)
Japan Parliamentary Elections: By October 2021 (snap elections possible)
Timor-Leste Municipal Elections: October 2021 (due)
Tonga General Elections: By November 30, 2021
Hong Kong Legislative Council Elections: December 2021 (ADD EXACT DATE)
Sri Lanka Early Provincial Elections: Late 2021 (proposed)
India, State Elections in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand: February/March 2022 (due)
South Korea Presidential Election: March 9, 2022
TImor-Leste Presidential Election: March 2022 (due)
Philippines Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 9, 2022
Australia Parliamentary Elections: May 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Papua New Guinea Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due)
Cambodia Local Elections: June 5, 2022
Nauru Parliamentary Elections: August 2022 (due)
India, State Elections in Himachal Pradesh: October 2022 (due)
Fiji Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due)
Nepal Parliamentary Elections: November 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
India, State Elections in Gujarat: December 2022 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Eurasia
Last Updated: May 13, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
May 13, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Armenia is holding snap parliamentary elections on June 20 in an effort to defuse a political crisis following a defeat in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
RFE/RL (May 10, 2021): Armenia’s Parliament Dissolves In Final Step Toward Early Elections
Emil Avdaliani, Modern Diplomacy (May 7, 2021): Armenia After the Parliamentary Elections
Moldova Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Moldova is holding snap parliamentary elections on July 11, which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months. Sandu trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election However, no party currently has a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies are outnumbered by pro-Russian parties). The resulting political instability was reaching crisis levels. More
Orlando Crowcroft, Euronews (May 10, 2021): In Moldova, a snap election could help Maia Sandu finish what she started
Yuri Panchenko, Institute for War and Peace Reporting (May 10, 2021): Ukrainian Judge’s Kidnapping May Have Political Impact in Moldova
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Russia is due to hold parliamentary elections by September 19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia. Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including imprisoning Navalny. More
Eva Hartog, Politico (May 12, 2021): In purging Russia of Navalny, the Kremlin is humming a Soviet tune
Olafimihan Oshin, The Hill (May 12, 2021): Former Russian mayor who encouraged pro-Navalny protests is jailed
Meduza (May 12, 2021): Moscow court fines Telegram for refusing to remove posts about pro-Navalny protests
Moscow Times (May 11, 2021): Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Movement Disputes Georgia Relocation Reports
BBC (May 8, 2021): Amnesty apologises to Alexei Navalny over ‘prisoner of conscience’ status
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Georgia is due to hold local elections in October 2021. These follow last year’s parliamentary elections, which took place in a climate of political tension, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout. Tensions have exploded into a full-blown political crisis. Although the crisis has eased, tensions remain. More
AFP (May 10, 2021): Georgia frees jailed opposition leader after EU posts bail
Elene Panchulidze and Richard Youngs, Carnegie Europe (May 10, 2021): Defusing Georgia’s Political Crisis: An EU Foreign Policy Success?
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (proposed)
Kyrgyzstan’s leader has proposed re-running the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.” The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections. More
Eurasianet (May 6, 2021): Kyrgyzstan: Spotlight on populist security chief after Tajikistan violence
Past Eurasia Elections
Belarus Presidential Election: August 9, 2020
Belarus held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, incumbent Alexander Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have taken to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. Protests continue. More
Grigory Ioffe, Jamestown Foundation (May 12, 2021): Going Over the Top in and Around Belarus
Robin Emmott, Reuters (May 10, 2021): EU prepares new round of Belarus sanctions from June, diplomats say
Tadeusz Iwański, New Eastern Europe (May 10, 2021): The father that doesn’t want to leave: Between authoritarian violence and social anger in Belarus
Jenni Fink, Newsweek (May 7, 2021): Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko Agrees to Early Election if U.S. Will Also Hold One
Eurasia Elections in 2021 and 2022
Armenia Snap Parliamentary Elections: June 20, 2021
Russia Parliamentary Elections: By September 19, 2021
Georgia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: Fall 2021 (expected)
Uzbekistan Presidential Election: October 24, 2021
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
Europe
Last Updated: May 13, 2021 by 21votes Leave a Comment
May 12, 2021
Your weekly roundup of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week. For a full electoral calendar and interactive map, click here.
Zagreb’s Ban Jelačić Square. Croatia heads to the polls for local elections on May 16. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Lamasse (public domain)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Croatia Local Elections: May 16, 2021
Croatia has scheduled local elections for May 21, 2021. These elections got a bit of a shakeup when Milan Bandic, the mayor of Zagreb, died in February after a combined 20 years in office (according to some reports, he was the world’s longest-serving mayor). Although Bandic had a devoted following, he was also controversial, and embroiled in a number of scandals. A former communist, he joined the Social Democratic Party (SDP) when Croatia began holding multiparty elections in 1990, but later broke off to start his own party. Meanwhile, HDZ, the main conservative party, won last year’s parliamentary elections, after losing the January 2020 presidential election. Tomislav Tomašević from the green-left Možemo! appears to be leading polls for mayor of Zagreb.
Tea Trubić Macan, Euractiv (May 10, 2021): HDZ remain the most popular political party in Croatia
Ivor Kruljac, Total Croatia News (May 10, 2021): Best Zagreb Mayor By Historians: Historians Shouldn’t Rate, But Većeslav Holjevac Takes Lead
Cyprus Parliamentary Elections: May 30, 2021
Cyprus is due to hold parliamentary elections on May 23, 2021. The center-right DISY – currently in the majority – will face off against the center-left AKEL, the main opposition party (with a number of smaller parties also competing). Cyprus is a presidential system (the only full presidential system in the EU), so these elections will function as more of a test for the parties ahead of the 2023 presidential election. The current president is President Nicos Anastasiades (from DISY). This is all happening in the context of the ongoing Eastern Mediterranean crisis. More
in-cyprus (May 10, 2021): Record number of 650 candidates running in May 30’s parliamentary elections
George Psyllides, Cyprus Mail (May 10, 2021): Abstention set to be the winner at upcoming election
Latvia Municipal Elections: June 5, 2021
Latvia has scheduled municipal elections for June 5, 2021. After that, parliamentary elections are due in October 2022. More
Jānis Geste, lsv.lm (May 12, 2021): Party ratings for April show plenty to fight for in local elections
LETA (May 8, 2021): Which political party in Latvia plans to spend the most on pre-election promotion?
Germany Saxony-Anhalt State Elections: June 5, 2021, and Bundestag Elections: September 26, 2021 (plus other state elections throughout the year)
Germany is due to hold several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections. The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany.
Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU have nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens have taken SPD’s place as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world. However, despite his unpopularity, Armin Laschet remains the favorite to succeed Merkel as chancellor. Nonetheless, German voters have a real choice and Baerbock, who comes from the party’s “realo” (moderate) wing as opposed to the “fundi” (radical) wing – has an actual shot at the top job. More
Saxony-Anhalt
Spiegel (May 12, 2021 – in German): Wahl-O-Mat 2021: Who would you choose in Saxony-Anhalt?
Federal
Iain Rogers, Bloomberg (May 12, 2021): Merkel Bloc Tries to Regain Momentum With Climate Overhaul
Laurens Cerulus, Politico (May 10, 2021): Facebook promises to ramp up security for German election
Guy Chazan, Financial Times (May 10, 2021): SPD struggles to break through as Greens dominate German campaign
DW (May 8, 2021): Germany: Greens to oust Tübingen mayor over racist comments
Kay-Alexander Scholz, DW (May 7, 2021): Germany: Opinion poll suggests Green party could head next government
Justin Huggler, The Telegraph (May 7, 2021): German Greens election lead at risk amid mutiny over use of word ‘Germany’ in manifesto
France Regional Elections: June 13, 2021 and Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
France holds regional elections on June 13, 2021, with a second round on June 20. These come ahead of next year’s presidential and legislative elections, where President Emmanuel Macron potentially faces a formidable challenge from the far-right. More
Reuters (May 11, 2021): Le Pen candidate shown gaining control of Provence region in opinion poll
Al Jazeera (May 11, 2021): France: Head of Macron’s party slams Muslim candidate’s headscarf
AFP (May 9, 2021): How France’s Macron is tacking right in bid for 2022 election triumph
The Economist (May 9, 2021): Four decades after François Mitterrand became president, France’s left is in trouble
Lorne Cook and Sylvie Corbet, ABC News (May 5, 2021): EU’s Brexit chief eyes a role in French presidential vote
Finland Local Elections: June 13, 2021 (postponed from April)
Finland is holding municipal elections on June 13, 2021, delayed from April due to COVID-19. Following the 2019 parliamentary elections, a left-leaning coalition came into government nationally. More
YLE (May 11, 2021): Yle’s election compass out now: More than 30,000 people are running for election to local councils in June
YLE (May 7, 2021): YLE: National Coalition grabs pole position ahead of Finns Party and Social Democrats
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Bulgaria is holding fresh parliamentary elections on July 11 after no party formed a government following the April 4 elections. In those polls, PM Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB won the most seats, but lost ground and failed to win a majority. New parties running against the establishment did surprisingly well – in fact, a party called There Is Such a People, led by TV star Stanislav Trifonov, came in second and ruled out forming a coalition with GERB. Trifonov’s main platform was anti-corruption – indeed, corruption was the biggest issue in the election. More
Reuters (May 12, 2021): Bulgaria interim govt to maintain veto on North Macedonia’s EU talks
AP (May 11, 2021): Bulgaria caretaker government appointed until July election
Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (May 11, 2021): Former Bulgarian PM returns to politics in alliance with communists
Sofia Globe (May 11, 2021): Shake-up in leadership echelon of Borissov’s GERB party
Andrew MacDowall, World Politics Review (May 10, 2021): Bulgaria’s Fractured Politics Marks the End of the Borissov Era
Svetoslav Todorov, Balkan Insight (May 6, 2021): Bulgarian PM Rejects Extortion Claims Against GERB Party
Italy, Mayoral Elections in Rome, Milan, Turin, Naples and other cities and regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Italy is due to hold regional elections in Calabria in the south, as well as mayoral elections in several major cities, later this year. The next general elections aren’t due until June 2023, but as is ever the case with Italy, snap elections are possible. However, in January 2021, the government collapsed after former prime minister Matteo Renzi withdrew his support. Former European Central Bank chief Mario “Super Mario” Draghi formed a government in February 2021.
Hannah Roberts, Politico (May 12, 2021): Could Giorgia Meloni be Italy’s first female prime minister?
Alessandro Speciale and Maria Tadeo, Bloomberg (May 11, 2021): Italy Wants Europe to Reset China Ties on More Equal Footing
Angelo Amante and Crispian Balmer, Reuters (May 10, 2021): Analysis: Italy’s Salvini struggles as rightist ally grows stronger
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: By Spring 2022 (or earlier)
Hungary is due to hold parliamentary elections by Spring 2022, although snap elections are possible. Prime Minster Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian, to the concern of many both in Hungary and in the international community.
Reuters (May 12, 2021): Hungary’s opposition plans joint primary in bid to unseat PM Orban in 2022
Hungary Today (May 12, 2021): Opposition Parties Agree on Primaries Selection Method
András Arató, Euronews (May 10, 2021): Hungary is becoming a semi-dictatorship as the EU watches idly
The Economist (May 8, 2021): Meet the man who could oust Viktor Orban, Hungary’s strongman
Voice of America (May 8, 2021): Chinese University Plan Causes Security Concerns in Hungary
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: By April 2022
Serbia held snap parliamentary elections on June 21, 2020 in a climate of mistrust. Many opposition parties boycotted, and therefore, President Alexander Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) dominated. Vucic announced that the new parliament would not serve a full term, and that the Serbia would hold both presidential and parliamentary elections by April 2022.
Serbia has tried to balance movement toward joining the European Union with maintaining good relations with Russia. Meanwhile, China has stepped up its presence.
Reid Standish, Ljudmila Cvetkovic, and Maja Zivanovic, RFE/RL (May 11, 2021): China Deepens Its Balkans Ties Using Serbian Universities
European Western Balkans (May 10, 2021): EP-facilitated Dialogue in Serbia: First meetings concluded, possible arrival of MEPs in June
Past Europe Elections
United Kingdom Local Elections (including Mayor of London and Scottish and Welsh parliaments): May 6, 2021
The United Kingdom (UK) held local elections on May 6, 2021. Voters will elected various local councils, plus the mayor of London, plus Scottish and Welsh parliaments. Overall, the Conservatives made gains on councils, but Labour’s Sadiq Khan was re-elected mayor of London. Labour also held onto its working majority in the Welsh parliament.
The Scottish elections were particularly high-stakes because if the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has been demanding another referendum on independence. The SNP won the most seats, but failed to win a majority, making it harder to insist on a new referendum.
In addition, the Conservatives won a parliamentary election in Hartlepool, a longtime Labour stronghold, a sign of a possible realignment of British politics as the Tories make gains in the Labour heartland. Some analysts have said that Labour is going through a post-Brexit identity crisis. More
The Economist (May 10, 2021 – podcast): “This was a pretty seismic set of midterm elections”—Boris Johnson’s triumph
Chris Mason, BBC News (May 10, 2021): Analysis: Is the Green Party on the rise – and if so, why?
Reuters (May 9, 2021): Scottish nationalists vow independence vote after election win
Mark Landler, New York Times (May 8, 2021): Scotland Election Results Complicate Hopes for Independence Referendum
Wall Street Journal (May 7, 2021): Britain’s Political Realignment: The Tories continue to gain in the former Labour heartland.
Bianca Nobilo, CNN (May 7, 2021 – video): CNN reporter on UK by-election result in Hartlepool: ‘Shattering defeat for Labour’
Spain, Snap Regional Elections in Madrid: May 4, 2021
Madrid held early regional elections on May 4, following the collapse of the government coalition consisting of the conservative Popular Party and the liberal Citizens Party. These elections took place in a highly polarized environment, as conservative incumbent Isabel Díaz Ayuso from the Popular Party faced against leftist firebrand Pablo Inglesias. The Popular Party won the most seats, but fell short of a majority and will likely govern in coalition with the far-right Vox. Meanwhile, Citizens failed to meet the 5 percent threshold and thus lost all its seats, and the Socialists (who currently run Spain’s federal government) had a historically low vote share.
AFP (May 12, 2021): Out of politics, pony-tailed Podemos founder cuts hair
Daniel Dombey, Financial Times (May 7, 2021): Isabel Díaz Ayuso: the Spanish right’s saviour
Wall Street Journal (May 5, 2021): Madrid Votes for Freedom
Albania Parliamentary Elections: April 25, 2021
Albania held parliamentary elections on April 25, 2021 in a tense political climate with several violent incidents. Since communism collapsed in 1990, Albania has held competitive elections and several transitions of power between political parties. The elections were close, and the incumbent Socialist Party won a third term in office, defeating the main opposition center-right Democratic Party. More
Tobias Rüttershoff and Teona Lavrelashvili, Euractiv (May 11, 2021): Albania has voted – will it be a new momentum for its EU path?
Giorgia Orlandi, Euronews (May 10, 2021): “Europe is a religion, and nobody can betray this religion in Albania,” said Albania’s Prime Minister
Fjori Sinoruka, Balkan Insight (May 10, 2021): Albania’s Opposition Stands at Crossroads After Election Rout
Peter Tase, Eurasia Review (May 9, 2021): Albania: Edi Rama Maintains An Iron Grip On Power – OpEd
Jacopo Barigazzi, Politico (May 7, 2021): EU commissioner floats shift on Albania membership talks
Llazar Semini, AP (May 7, 2021): Albanian lawmakers to investigate president for impeachment
Tal Schneider, Times of Israel (May 7, 2021): After Knesset election-rama, Israeli political advisers turn to Tirana
Jona Koprencka, bne Intellinews (May 5, 2021): COMMENT: “Patronagists” scandal brings back memories of the communist era in Albania
Regional Analysis
Julia Bergin, The Conversation (May 12, 2021): How China used the media to spread its COVID narrative — and win friends around the world
Harun Karčić, RUSI (May 11, 2021): Democratic Backsliding in Europe: Who is to Blame?
Jamie Dettmer, Voice of America (May 10, 2021): Europe’s Social Democratic Parties Struggle for Electoral Relevancy
Europe Elections in 2021 and 2022
Croatia Local Elections: May 16, 2021
Cyprus Parliamentary Elections: May 30, 2021
Latvia Local Elections: June 5, 2021
Germany, Saxony-Anhalt State Elections: June 6, 2021
Finland Municipal Elections: June 13, 2021
France Regional Elections: June 13, 2021
Bulgaria Fresh Parliamentary Elections: July 11, 2021
Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021
Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021
Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and probably Thuringia: September 26, 2021
Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021
Czech Republic Parliamentary Elections: October 8-9, 2021
Italy Municipal Elections, plus regional elections in Calabria: October 10-11, 2021
Estonia Local Elections: October 17, 2021
North Macedonia Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Portugal Local Elections: October 2021 (due)
Bulgaria Presidential Election: October/November 2021 (due)
Denmark Regional and Municipal Elections: November 16, 2021
Kosovo Local Elections: Due in 2021
Serbia Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: March/April 2022
France Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Austria Presidential Election: April 2022 (due)
Hungary Parliamentary Elections: April 2022 (due)
Slovenia Parliamentary Elections: By June 5, 2022
Malta Parliamentary Elections: June 2022 (due – snap elections possible)
Sweden Parliamentary Elections: September 11, 2022
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2022 (due)
Latvia Parliamentary Elections: October 2022 (due)
Slovenia Presidential Election: October/November 2022 (due)
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