Americas

November 9, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas elections on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

Dominica Legislative – December 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic 
Population: 74,027

Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019 (postponed)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (most recently, Salta Province - November 10, 2019)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress.

Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered. However, on the bright side, Bogota elected its first female mayor.

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Canada General – October 21, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election was a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. During the campaign, photographs emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers. Ultimately, the Liberals won the most seats, but lost their majority, and formed a minority government.

Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million

These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Brazil General – October 7, 2018

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

Upcoming Americas Elections
Dominica Legislative – December 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic 
Population: 74,027

Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit’s center-left Dominica Labour Party (DLP) has been in government since 2000. DLP lost seats following the 2014 parliamentary elections, but with 15 out of 21 seats still has a substantial majority. The main opposition United Workers’ Party (UWP) led by Lennox Linton has six seats. Home of the famous Boiling Lake, the world’s second-largest hot spring, rare birds, and natural beauty, the country has the potential to develop its tourism industry, but the lack of a major international airport has impeded growth. The debate over whether to build one has been going on for decades, and is a major issue in the upcoming elections. Skerrit has been slow-rolling a decision on whether and how to build one, and some oppose the idea entirely.

CMC: “Dominicans go to the polls on December 6 to elect a new government after Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit Tuesday night announced that he had advised President Charles Savarin to dissolve the Parliament on Wednesday in preparation for the poll that was constitutionally due by March next year.”

Haiti Local and Partial Parliamentary (one third of the Senate and the entire lower house) – Due October 27, 2019 (postponed)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.8 million

Haiti is in a political crisis. Political chaos related to allegations of fraud followed Haiti’s presidential 2015 election. A commission found that the election had indeed been fraudulent, and ordered a re-reun, which had only 18 percent turnout. President Moïse Jovenel was elected with 56 percent of ballots cast. The opposition alleged fraud once again, but an election tribunal conducted an investigation and certified the results. Violent protesters have demanded the president’s ouster. The 2015-2016 parliamentary elections were also marred by significant fraud. Opposition lawmakers blocked multiple attempts to ratify a new prime minister and have demanded Jovenel’s resignation.

Editorial Board, New York Times: “Haiti’s Ashes Decades of misrule have once again brought Haiti to the brink of collapse. Does anyone care?”

Past Americas Elections
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year (most recently, Salta Province – November 10, 2019)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 44.7 million

On the presidential front: Incumbent Mauricio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.

In the primaries on August 11, 2019, in which voters must select both a preferred party and a preferred candidate, Fernández and Kirchner won an unexpectedly high 47 percent of the vote, compared with Macri’s 33 percent. Inflation spiked following the primaries.

Financial Times: “Alberto Fernández’s victory set to shake up Argentine diplomacy: President-elect could adopt a radical foreign policy, realigning regional interests”

AFP/Buenos Aires Times: “What does Alberto Fernández’s election mean for the Lima Group? Seen as many Latin American neighbours as sympathetic to Venezuela’s government, Alberto Fernández’s rise to the presidency may require a shift in the group’s posture.”

Frank Jack Daniel, Reuters: “The prospect of a more united Latin American left grew on Monday [November 4] after the incoming president of Argentina and his Mexican counterpart discussed reviving a regional diplomatic alternative to the Washington-backed Organization of American States.”

Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times: “Two party dominance in Congress – but not enough to help Fernández: Senate under new government’s control but Macri’s comeback leaves Lower House hanging in the balance.

Perfil (in Spanish): “Who is Gustavo Sáenz, the Peronist who went from Sergio Massa’s vice candidate to governor of Salta He was a councilor, provincial senator, mayor and will now succeed Juan Manuel Urtubey. He came to the elections without supporting the Front of All or Change.”

Updated November 11, 2019

Reuters: ‘Argentine President-elect Alberto Fernandez said on Sunday a ‘coup’ had been carried out against Bolivian leader Evo Morales, who announced his resignation earlier in the day under mounting pressure from anti-government protests and the military.”

Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 48.2 million

Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress.

Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections, with at least seven mayoral candidates murdered. However, on the bright side, Bogota elected its first female mayor.

Jackie Castillo and Max Ramsay, Philadelphia Tribune: “Meet Claudia López, the first woman to lead Colombia’s capital”

Victoria Stunt, Quartz: “Why Bogota’s election of its first female mayor matters for Colombia”

Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.3 million

Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians votedin a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates. A court banned the publication of polls showing Morales may face a runoff.

Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples (MAS) currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.

Updated November 11, 2019 (rapidly-developing situation)

Reuters: “OAS Finds Irregularities in Disputed Bolivia Vote, Calls for New Elections”

Anatoly Kurmanaev, Mónica Machicao, Ernesto Londoño, New York Times: “Military Calls on President to Step Down After Election Dispute in Bolivia”

The Economist: “Bolivia in chaos after Evo Morales quits: Violence worsens after he claims to be the victim of a coup.”

Jack Guy, Kay Guerrero, Dakin Andone, CNN: “There’s a power vacuum in Bolivia after Evo Morales’ resignation. Here’s what you need to know”

Clifford Kraus and Daniel Victor, New York Times: “Evo Morales Urges Resistance to New Bolivian Government: The former president’s stance could complicate efforts to form a transitional administration and hold fresh elections.”

Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
Population: 35.9 million

The election was a competitive contest between the center-right Conservatives and incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s center-left Liberals. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. During the campaign, photographs emerged of Trudeau in brownface, which hurt the Liberals’ polling numbers. Ultimately, the Liberals won the most seats, but lost their majority, and formed a minority government.

Tyler Dawson, National Post (Canada): “‘What next’ for conservatives? Frustrated westerners meet to plan their future in Canada: The Conservatives’ inability in the recent election to break through in Ontario and Quebec, allowing the Liberals to secure a minority government was on the minds of those gathered.”

Althia Raj, Huffington Post: “How Justin Trudeau Didn’t Lose The 2019 Election: From scandals, spin and slams to a minority government.”

Guatemala General, Second Round – August 11, 2019 (first round was June 16)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 11.6 million

These elections took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

In May 2019, two out of the three leading presidential candidates were disqualified by the Constitutional Court: Thelma Aldana, a former attorney general who jailed hundreds for corruption, and Zury Rios, daughter of the former dictator. The first round did not produce a winner. Left-wing former first lady Sandra Torres faces conservative former prison director Alejandro Giammattei in a runoff on August 18. In the congressional elections, Torres’ left-wing National Unity of Hope (UNE) party appears to have won the most seats, but some face a runoff. Twenty percent of the incumbents are under investigation for corruption, and 92 percent of Guatemalans do not trust their legislature.

Reuters: “Guatemala’s next president to cut ties with Maduro’s Venezuela”

Brazil General – October 7, 2018
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Population: 208.8 million

Last year’s elections in Brazil swept controversial right-wing populist firebrand Jair Bolsonaro into the presidency, raising concerns about the future of democracy in the country. Brazil holds local elections next year.

France24/AFP: “Freed from his jail cell, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told thousands of jubilant supporters Saturday that the left can take back Brazil’s presidency in the 2022 election.”

Reuters: “Lula leaves prison, firing up Brazil’s left and right – Brazil’s leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva left prison on Friday after a judge ordered his release, startling financial markets and reigniting both ends of the political spectrum with calls for demonstrations in coming days.”

 

The Year Ahead: Americas Elections
Trinidad and Tobago local (November); Uruguay presidential runoff (November 24); Dominica legislative (December 6); Peru snap legislative (January 26 – tentative); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February); Costa Rica local (February 2); Guyana snap parliamentary (overdue – possibly November but likely in 2020); Dominican Republican presidential and parliamentary (May 17); Suriname presidential and parliamentary (May 25); Trinidad and Tobago presidential and parliamentary (September)


Claudia López was elected Bogota’s first female mayor on October 27. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Toshlander (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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