Americas This Week: July 15, 2023

July 15, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

El Salvador’s World Trade Center in San Salvador. Photo credit: Wikimedia/JMRAFFi (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Ecuador Snap Presidential Election: August 20, 2023

Yury Garcia and Alexandra Valencia, Reuters (July 13, 2023): Surging Guayaquil violence highlights security ahead of Ecuador presidential vote

Guatemala Presidential Runoff: August 20, 2023

John Lavenburg, Crux (July 14, 2023): Faith-based groups sound alarm about fairness of Guatemala elections

Eyder Peralta, NPR (July 13, 2023): A top Guatemalan party is barred, throwing the presidential election into the unknown

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023 (Presidential primaries on August 13, 2023)

Americas Quarterly (July 13, 2023 – podcast): Argentina’s Election: It’s (Finally) On

Nicolás Misculin, Reuters (July 12, 202): Argentina’s 2023 presidential primaries tough to call, pollsters say

Buenos Aires Times (July 8, 2023): Sergio Massa’s Argentina election bid puts IMF staff in a bind

Reuters (July 8, 2023): Argentina Inflation Seen Moderating, But Likely To Remain In Triple-digit At 142%

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)

Alonso Moleiro, El País (July 14, 2023): Venezuela says it will not accept European observation during 2024 presidential elections: The stance comes after the European Parliament condemned the ban on María Corina Machado, a frontrunner in the polls, from public office

Regina Garcia Cano, AP (July 13, 2023): Venezuela government’s ban on longtime foe draws attention to the opposition’s presidential primary: Maria Corina Machado has been a longtime foe of Venezuela’s government, and not exactly a unifying figure for its critics  

Reuters (July 13, 2023): Venezuela presidential opposition hopefuls call for unity, private investment

Elliott Abrams, Council on Foreign Relations (July 10, 2023): U.S. Policy Toward Venezuela Takes a Body Blow: Biden administration policy toward Venezuela was based on negotiating regime political concessions in exchange for lifting sanctions. But repression is growing and the policy is failing

CNN (July 8, 2023 – video): ‘The world is starting to understand we will defeat Maduro,’ says Venezuelan opposition politician

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Santiago Triana Sánchez, El País (July 14, 2023): El Salvador’s mega-prisons as an electoral promise in Colombia: Diego Molano and Jaime Arizabaleta, pre-candidates for the mayoralties of Bogotá and Cali, have proposed building prisons inspired by Nayib Bukele’s crusade against crime

El Salvador General Elections: February 4, 2024

AFP (July 10, 2023): Party of El Salvador leader backs his quest for re-election: El Salvador’s ruling party on Sunday gave the green light to President Nayib Bukele in his quest to seek re-election next year, as critics question the legality of a second consecutive term

Mexico General Elections: July 2024

AP (July 14, 2023): Mexican president continues attacking opposition candidate, despite electoral agency’s order to stop

Mark Stevenson, AP (July 10, 2023): Mexico’s president breaks with tradition in quarrel with scrappy opposition upstart

Christine Murray and Michael Stott, Financial Times (July 10, 2023): Politics trumps trade in US and Mexico ahead of 2024 elections

Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)

Ian Bailey, Globe and Mail (July 9, 2023): Over half of Canadians want Trudeau, Poilievre replaced as party leaders before next election, poll suggests

Regional Analysis

Vera Bergengruen, Time (July 11, 2023): ‘The Long Game.’ China’s Online Influence Campaign in Latin America

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

Argentina Presidential Primaries: August 13, 2023

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: August 14, 2023

Ecuador Snap Presidential Election: August 20, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 20, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

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