Americas This Week: April 1, 2023

April 1, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Mayan ruins in Tikal, Guatemala. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Simon Burchell (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.

Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

Benjamin N. Gedan, Global Americans (March 30, 2023): In Paraguay, Politicians Await the U.S.’s Next Move

Daniela Desantis, Reuters (March 29, 2023): In Paraguay, calls for change test Colorado Party’s political machine

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023, followed by General Elections: July 2024

Some Mexican states are holding gubernatorial elections this year, but the country’s politicos are all gearing up for the big presidential election in 2024. 

Populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador (often called AMLO) stormed to election in 2018, but he is barred from seeking another term. There had been some talk of him potentially trying to run again anyway, but he now says he will not. But concerns about growing authoritarianism remain, particularly with a package of electoral reforms he is trying to enact.

Reuters (March 31, 2023): Mexico picks first woman to head electoral body amid political row

Griselda Zetino, KTAR News (March 28, 2023): Former Mexican president encourages voters living in Arizona to participate in Mexico election

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Guatemala’s last elections, in 2019, took place in a climate of chaos and uncertainty. Incumbent president Jimmy Morales, a comedian and political outsider, ran on an anti-corruption platform in 2015 but since being elected has repeatedly attacked the UN’s anti-corruption body CICIG after it started investigating his family members.

Human Rights Watch (March 31, 2023): Guatemala: End Arbitrary Exclusion of Candidates

AFP (March 28, 2023): Relatives of tainted ex-leaders vie for Guatemala presidency

Sofia Menchu, Reuters (March 27, 2023): Guatemala sets lineup for presidential vote as critics slam disqualifications

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Reuters (March 26, 2023): Argentina ex-President Macri says he will not be candidate in upcoming elections

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023 (presidential election due in 2024)

Venezuela’s politicalconstitutional, and humanitarian crises have been going on for years. The country became an authoritarian state under the now-deceased Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and completely transformed the country from a prosperous democracy to a leftist dictatorship. His successor, Nicolás Maduro, has continued on that path. Socialist economic policies have destroyed the economy. Although Venezuela is a major oil producer, 90 percent of Venezuelans cannot afford sufficient food and many have fled. Moreover, the capital, Caracas, has become one of the most violent cities in the world.

Nonetheless, Venezuela’s opposition is active and occasionally makes gains.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, U.S. officials have begun to court the Venezuelan regime.

AS/COA (March 30, 2023 – video): Democracy Dialogues: Venezuela’s Path to Elections

Maryhen Jiménez Morales, Americas Quarterly (March 28, 2023): Venezuela’s Opposition Still Has Lots of Work to Do

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

In 2022, Colombia elected its first-ever leftist president, Gustavo Petro. In concurrent legislative elections, however, no party won a majority and centrists did not perform well. Ironically given his name, Petro pledged to end oil exploration.

Colombian politics are polarized and the climate is tense.

Jon Orbach, AS/COA (March 30, 2023): A Status Check on Gustavo Petro’s Five Big Reforms

Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)

Stephanie Taylor, The Canadian Press (March 31, 2023): Former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole not seeking re-election, leaving federal politics this spring

Craig McCulloch, Voice of America (March 28, 2023): China Accused of Meddling in Canada’s Elections

Past Americas Elections

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.

The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s. Now, some are calling for Lasso’s impeachment and/or early elections.

AP (March 29, 2023): Ecuador court says congress can pursue impeaching president

Reuters (March 28, 2023): Ecuador Indigenous group urges court to agree to impeachment of President Lasso

Brazil General Elections: October 2, 2022

Reuters (March 30, 2023): Bolsonaro returns to Brazil to lead right-wing opposition to Lula

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Neuquén and Río Negro: April 16, 2023

British Virgin Islands Assembly Elections: April 24, 2023

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Jujuy, Misiones and La Rioja: May 7, 2023

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in La Pampa, San Juan, Salta, Tucumán and Tierra del Fuego: May 14, 2023

Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Legislative Elections in Corrientes: June 4, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in San Luis: June 11, 2023

Guyana Local Elections: June 12, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Córdoba: June 18, 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023

Argentina, Provincial Elections in Mendoza and Entre Ríos: September 24, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Venezuela Opposition Presidential Primary: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

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