Americas This Week: February 11, 2023

February 11, 2023

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

Calle Palma in Asuncion, Paraguay. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Bruno Arriola (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Paraguay’s election could result in yet another country switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the PRC. Incumbent president Mario Abdo from the conservative Colorado Party is ineligible to run for another term. Opposition candidate Efrain Alegre from the liberal PRLA has said that if he wins, he’ll recognize Beijing, while Colorado’s candidate, Santiago Pena, has said he will maintain relations with Taiwan.

Colorado has been in power most of the time since the 1950s.

Paraguay returned to democracy in 1989, following the collapse of the 35-year dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner, but a number of issues remain. These elections took place in the context of political violence and attacks on candidates. As a result, it is rated Partly Free by Freedom House.

Reuters (February 8, 2023): Paraguay president to visit Taiwan ahead of election that could end ties

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023 Constitutional Referendum: November/December (expected)

Following protests starting in 2019, an elected group of Chileans drafted a new constitution in 2022. The group produced one of the world’s most left-wing proposed constitutions in the world, but voters rejected it by a large margin. 

Subsequently, lawmakers agreed to restart the process. Therefore, Chile will hold elections for a new constituent assembly in April or May, with  a referendum on the draft constitution that body produces expected in November or December.

Meanwhile, Chile’s left-wing president, Gabriel Boric, who took office in March 2022, has an approval rating of only 25 percent.

Eduardo Thomson and Valentina Fuentes, Bloomberg (February 7, 2023): Chilean Parties Split Over Candidates for Constitutional Rewrite

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Scott Squires, Bloomberg (February 10, 2023): Argentina Is Buckling Under Strain of $174 Billion Debt Mountain

Buenos Aires Times (February 8, 2023): Elisa ‘Lilita’ Carrió preaches ‘unity’ as she confirms presidential run

Buenos Aires Herald (February 6, 2023): Alberto Fernández doesn’t rule out competing for re-election in 2023 primaries

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Jon Orbach, AS/COA (February 9, 2023): Five Figures that Sum Up Gustavo Petro’s First Six Months

Venezuela Presidential Election: Due in 2024

Reuters (February 9, 2023): Voter apathy is hurdle for Venezuelan opposition as it seeks to unseat Maduro

Ezra Fieser and Andreina Itriago Acosta, Bloomberg (February 9, 2023): How Maduro Beat Guaidó and the US in Venezuela’s Long Standoff

Canada Federal Elections: Due by October 2025 – snap elections possible (various provincial and local elections due between now and then)

Vjosa Isai, New York Times (February 10, 2023): Toronto Mayor Resigns After Admitting to Relationship With Employee

CBC News (February 10, 2023): Toronto Mayor John Tory is resigning. So what happens now? Be ready for a byelection to elect a new mayor, Toronto

Bryan Passifiume, National Post (February 9, 2023): Intelligence officials grilled over foreign meddling in Canadian elections

Haiti General Elections: Long overdue, could happen in 2023 but don’t hold your breath

AFP (February 10, 2023): Haiti needs international force to end ‘living nightmare’: UN rights chief

Jacqueline Charles, Miami Herald (February 8, 2023): US is training Haiti police to combat gangs, but that’s not only security worry

Evens Sanon, AP (February 6, 2023): Haiti appoints council amid push to hold general elections

Past Americas Elections

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Ecuador held local and regional elections on February 5, as well as a referendum on constitutional amendments backed by President Guillermo Lasso. Lasso, who is center-right, was elected in a close runoff in 2021 in one of the handful of Latin American elections that resisted the “pink tide.” He is up for re-election in 2025.

The elections dealt a blow to Lasso, with the leftist opposition winning most major cities, including the port of Guayaquil, the country’s biggest city, which the right had controlled since the 90s.

CBS/AFP (February 7, 2023): Town elects man mayor day after he’s assassinated amid violent crime wave in Ecuador

Joe Parkin Daniels, Financial Times (February 7, 2023): Referendum gamble backfires for Ecuador’s centre-right leader

Reuters (February 6, 2023): Ecuador’s Lasso accepts extradition referendum defeat; opposition wins mayoral races

Brazil General Elections: October 2, 2022

Reuters (February 8, 2023): Analysis: Brazil central bank autonomy becomes political punching bag for Lula

Gabriel Cohen, Americas Quarterly (February 7, 2023): Lula’s Tightrope-Balancing Act

AFP (February 6, 2023): Unpacking Bolsonaro’s move to small Florida town

Mary Anastasia O’Grady, Wall Street Journal (February 5, 2023): Lula’s D.C. Visit Could Get Awkward: He’s a utopian socialist, not the democratic champion of Biden’s imagination

Nicaragua General Elections: November 7, 2021

AFP (February 11, 2023): US Calls For ‘Dialogue’ In Rare Direct Contact With Nicaragua Govt

Oriana Zill de Granados and Emily Gordon, CBS News (February 9, 2023): 222 Nicaraguan political prisoners released after negotiations with United States

Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)

Kyle Rose, Foreign Brief (February 10, 2023): Deadline for Peru to set elections to expire

Yael Sternberg, GZERO (February 8, 2023): Chaos is the only winner in Peru

Joe Parkin Daniels and Harry Dempsey, Financial Times (February 8, 2023): Peru unrest threatens copper supply: Analysts expect disruption to world’s second-largest producer to boost prices of the metal

Joshua Goodman, AP (February 5, 2023): Turmoil risks financial stability Peru long took for granted

Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023

Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023

Jamaica Local Elections: February 2023 (long overdue – date still not set)

Guyana Local Elections: March 13, 2023

Argentina, Gubernatorial Elections in Corrientes and Neuquen: March 26, 2023

Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023

Chile Constitutional Council Elections: May 7, 2023

Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023

British Virgin Islands Assembly Election: May 2023 (due)

Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023

Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023

Argentina Presidential Primary: August 13, 2023

Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 27, 2023

Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023

Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023

Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023

Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023

Argentina Presidential Runoff: November 19, 2023

Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)

Chile Constitutional Referendum: November/December 2023 (expected)

Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023

Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)

21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.


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