Middle East This Week – February 5, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the greater Middle East and North Africa on Tuesdays. Click the map pins.

Turkey Local - March 31, 2019

Both the government and the opposition say that Turkey’s upcoming local elections are the first test of the new presidential system, adopted in July 2018, which moved almost all political power into the office of the president.

Israel Snap Parliamentary - April 9, 2019

A poll from Haaretz, Israel’s oldest newspaper (known for its left-of-center stance), predicts that prime minster Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 30 seats and Hosen L’Yisrael, the new party founded by former army chief Benny Gantz (Netanyahu’s main rival in these elections) will win 22 seats. The Knesset (Israel’s unicameral parliament) has 120 seats in total. Between the various other parties who could comprise a coalition, Haaretz predicts that Netanyahu will remain prime minister.

The Washington Post’s Loveday Morris and Ruth Eglash profile Gantz: “Nicknamed “the prince,” Gantz has been described by those who know him as a mild-mannered pragmatist. His silence has appeared to serve him well, and polls show he is on track to win around 15 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament. That’s not close to the 30 that Netanyahu is expected to win. But if Gantz forms a political alliance with other contenders ahead of the vote, he could pose a threat to the prime minister, especially given the legal woes.”

The Washington Post’s Loveday Morris analyzes the internal challenges facing Israel’s left, writing: “The corruption scandal bedeviling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be a gift to his election opponents on the center left, but instead they are plagued by infighting and, in the case of Israel’s Labor Party, near mutiny.”

Likud primaries are underway, with 142 candidates running for spots on the party list.

Algeria Presidential - April 18, 2019

Algeria’s ruling coalition has nominated 81-year-old incumbent Abdelaziz Bouteflika for a fifth term in the upcoming presidential elections. The main Islamist party will participate in the polls, backing Abderrazak Makri, but the main secular opposition parties will boycott because they do not think the polls will be credible. Algerian politics have been dominated by a close-knit military elite called “le pouvoir” (the power), and the country suppresses the opposition.

Palestinian Authority General - Due by July 2019

Fatah, the party of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, will form a government without Hamas to replace the current government and to prepare for upcoming elections.

Egypt Presidential - Due 2020

A group of lawmakers has proposed to extend the presidential term to six years, allowing current president Abdel al-Sisi to remain in power until 2024.

Bahrain General - November 24, 2018

A court upheld the life sentence of the secretary general of Bahrain’s main opposition group, Sheikh Ali Salman. The international NGO Amnesty International condemned the decision. Bahrain’s opposition was barred from participating in general elections last November.

Lebanon - May 6, 2018

Lebanon has a government nine months after long-delayed elections. Prime Minister Saad Hariri will serve a third term in office, and the cabinet has four women, a record for the country. Lebanese American University professor and Harvard Kennedy School associate Jeffery Karam outlines the case for cautious optimism.

Upcoming Elections
Turkey Local – March 31, 2019
Both the government and the opposition say that Turkey’s upcoming local elections are the first test of the new presidential system, adopted in July 2018, which moved almost all political power into the office of the president.

Israel Snap Parliamentary – April 9, 2019
A poll from Haaretz, Israel’s oldest newspaper (known for its left-of-center stance), predicts that prime minster Binyamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will win 30 seats and Hosen L’Yisrael, the new party founded by former army chief Benny Gantz (Netanyahu’s main rival in these elections) will win 22 seats. The Knesset (Israel’s unicameral parliament) has 120 seats in total. Between the various other parties who could comprise a coalition, Haaretz predicts that Netanyahu will remain prime minister.

The Washington Post’s Loveday Morris and Ruth Eglash profile Gantz: “Nicknamed “the prince,” Gantz has been described by those who know him as a mild-mannered pragmatist. His silence has appeared to serve him well, and polls show he is on track to win around 15 of the 120 seats in the Israeli parliament. That’s not close to the 30 that Netanyahu is expected to win. But if Gantz forms a political alliance with other contenders ahead of the vote, he could pose a threat to the prime minister, especially given the legal woes.”

The Washington Post’s Loveday Morris analyzes the internal challenges facing Israel’s left, writing: “The corruption scandal bedeviling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be a gift to his election opponents on the center left, but instead they are plagued by infighting and, in the case of Israel’s Labor Party, near mutiny.”

Algeria Presidential – April 18, 2019
Algeria’s ruling coalition has nominated 81-year-old incumbent Abdelaziz Bouteflika for a fifth term in the upcoming presidential elections. The main Islamist party will participate in the polls, backing Abderrazak Makri, but the main secular opposition parties will boycott because they do not think the polls will be credible. Algerian politics have been dominated by a close-knit military elite called “le pouvoir” (the power), and the country suppresses the opposition.

Palestinian Authority General – Due by July 2019
Fatah, the party of Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, will form a government without Hamas to replace the current government and to prepare for upcoming elections.

Egypt Presidential – Due 2020
A group of lawmakers has proposed to extend the presidential term to six years, allowing current president Abdel al-Sisi to remain in power until 2024.

Past Elections
Bahrain General – November 24, 2018
A court upheld the life sentence of the secretary general of Bahrain’s main opposition group, Sheikh Ali Salman. The international NGO Amnesty International condemned the decision. Bahrain’s opposition was barred from participating in general elections last November.

Lebanon – May 6, 2018
Lebanon has a government nine months after long-delayed elections. Prime Minister Saad Hariri will serve a third term in office, and the cabinet has four women, a record for the country. Lebanese American University professor and Harvard Kennedy School associate Jeffery Karam outlines the case for cautious optimism.

The Year Ahead: Middle East
Egypt local (planned for the first half of 2019 – delays possible); Turkey local (March 31); Israel snap parliamentary (April 9); Algeria presidential (April 14); Qatar municipal (May – councils are advisory only with no actual legislative power); Libya (international community wants presidential or legislative elections by June); Afghanistan presidential (set for July 20 – has already been delayed and could be again); Palestinian Authority legislative (due by July); Oman consultative assembly (October – assembly is advisory only with no actual legislative power); Tunisia parliamentary and presidential (October and November)

Campaign posters in Istanbul during Turkey’s 2014 presidential election. Photo credit: VOA/Osman Orsal

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