June 2024 Election Outlook

This month will see a number of geopolitically-significant votes. Here are some key ones to watch:

India: India’s massive parliamentary election – reportedly the biggest election in world history, with close to a billion voters – has been going on since April 19 and the final phase of voting takes place on June 1. Results are expected to be announced on June 4. Narendra Modi’s BJP is widely expected to win a third term, but it is worth watching the margin of victory.

What will a third Modi term mean? When he first came to power in 2014, India’s economy was the tenth largest in the world. Now it is the fifth. It could become the third during Modi’s third term.

Mexico: The election is widely viewed as a referendum on the current president, populist firebrand Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO.

While AMLO is popular in some circles, his policies have empowered narcos and generally deteriorated the security situation. And there are serious concerns about democratic decline under his leadership. This election has been extremely violent, with at least 34 candidates having been murdered. 
Mexico is now the United States’ biggest trading partner, making these elections especially important.

South Africa: Following the May parliamentary elections, Mandela’s ANC has lost its absolute majority. In early June, the parliament will choose the new president, and the ANC will need to do a coalition deal with another party. It remains an open question whether they will go with the center-right Democratic Alliance or with one of the left-wing parties that broke away from the ANC, either the Economic Freedom Fighters, which advocates Mugabe-style policies, or Jacob Zuma’s Zulu nationalist uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK.

European Union: The European Parliament is likely to move toward the right following the June elections, but the right is not monolithic and it remains to be seen what this means for the geopolitical outlook.

June 1

India Parliamentary Elections, Phase 7

Iceland Presidential Election

South Africa Presidential Election (by parliament, following May 29 parliamentary elections)

June 2

Mexico General Elections

Serbia, Belgrade Assembly Elections

June 6-9

European Union Elections

June 7

Ireland Local Elections

June 8

Malta Local Elections

Italy Local Elections and Piedmont Regional Elections

June 9

Bulgaria Parliamentary Elections

San Marino Parliamentary Elections

Belgium Parliamentary and Regional Elections

Romania Local Elections

Germany, Local Elections in Some States

Hungary Local Elections

Cyprus Local Elections

June 11

United States, Las Vegas Mayoral Election

June 22

Italy, Local Elections Second Round

June 26

Thailand, Indirect Senate Elections

June 28

Mongolia Parliamentary and Local Elections

Iran, Snap Presidential Election (following death of president)

June 29

Mauritania Presidential Election

Voting in Mexico’s 2021 elections. Photo credit: Wikimedia/ProtoplasmaKid (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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