Europe This Week – January 9, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Estonia Parliamentary - March 3, 2019

University of Maryland professor Terry Thompson on how the Baltics counter Russian misinformation: “Disinformation is a key part of Russia’s overall effort to undermine Western governments. As a result, the battle is ever-changing, with Russians constantly trying new angles of attack and target countries like the Baltic nations identifying and thwarting those efforts. The most effective responses will involve coordination between governmentscommercial technology companies and the news industry and social media platforms to identify and address disinformation.”

Estonia 200, a new pro-Europe political party, unveiled but quickly retracted a series of controversial ads at bus stops. Estonia 200 leader Kristina Kallas said the ads were meant to highlight existing problems in Estonian society, but other political parties took offense

Slovakia Presidential - March 9, 2019

Ian Johnson on how Slovakian citizens defeated the oligarchs: “Over the past year, however, something unexpected happened. Instead of joining Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic in sliding toward authoritarianism, hundreds of thousands of Slovaks have rallied around their fragile democracy….Although Slovakia’s leaders have changed, their autocratically oriented government remains in control, and could win this year’s presidential and next year’s parliamentary elections. But at a time when democracy is under siege around the world, Slovakia’s spirited response is an important counterpoint, a small victory built on luck, guile, and courage. ”

Finland Parliamentary - April 14, 2019

YLE, Finland’s public broadcaster, reports: “Four political parties without a current seat in the Finnish Parliament have decided to form an electoral union, in the hopes of winning at least one MP post. Finland’s Feminist Party, Pirate Party, Animal Justice Party and Liberal Party have decided to come together to create a joint electoral union in Helsinki ahead of the parliamentary elections on 14 April.”

YLE also reports: “With two elections coming up this spring, Finland’s government is launching a multimedia campaign to urge people to vote – and to identify and critically approach claims circulating on the internet.”

European Elections - May 23 - 29, 2019

The question about the upcoming European elections is how well populist parties will do, and whether they will be able to position themselves to reshape Europe.

The Economist’s Charlemagne writes: “When historians look back on 2019 in Europe, what will they say? Many will doubtless discern a turning-point. Not only is Britain leaving the eu, but in May voters in the remaining 27 member states will elect a new European Parliament and end the majority that the two big-tent political groups—the Christian democrats and social democrats—have enjoyed in the European institutions for decades.”

Fredrick Erixon of the European Centre for International Political Economy opines in the Spectator: “In the past, it never really mattered much if the Euro election was carried by the left or the right: the result was the same anyway….Yes, Euro elections would take in a haul of fist-shakers and heretics, and the odd political circus act. But whatever the question, the parliament’s answer had always been: ‘more Europe’.”

DW reports: “Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Poland’s Jaroslaw Kaczynski share a similar brand of nationalist politics. As the two meet in Warsaw, they are hoping to create a united conservative bloc for the European Parliament elections.”

Sean O’Grady at the Independent posits: “Together, by the looks of things, they will garner about a fifth to a third of the available vote, and perhaps more if there is another migrant crisis or economic disaster that will galvanise people and push the traditionally low turnout rates much higher. Proportional representation makes it easy for small groups to gain seats, but in many of the largest EU states the far right is well past the usual thresholds imposed in direct elections. They have their chance, and conditions are favouring them.”

King’s College London professor Alexander Clarkson writes: “In government, far-right populists are less likely to want to bring down the EU to their — and everybody else’s — disadvantage than to try to work the EU system to their advantage, harnessing it to their agenda.”

A new study from Harvard professor Yascha Mount and Jordan Kyle from the Tony Blair institute found that populism damages democracies.

The center-right European People’s Party kicked off a listening tour with Manfred Weber, its spitzenkandidat (lead candidate).

Austria European Parliament - May 26, 2019

Austria’s parties have begun positioning themselves for the European Parliament elections. While parties have mostly not announced their candidate lists yet, party leaders are making moves. Euractiv reports on the beginnings of the campaign and how this election will impact Austria’s domestic politics. 

Germany European Parliament - May 26, 2019

Politico reports: “Lawmakers need to brace for hacking attempts ahead of a European election and get better at protecting their information online, Germany’s interior minister warned in the aftermath of a breach that exposed the private data of almost 1,000 German politicians.”

Spain European Parliament - May 26, 2019

The New York Times reports on the rise of the far-right nationalist party Vox, which won seats in Andalusia’s recent regional elections: “In the greater political sphere in Spain, Vox remains a small player. But some analysts say its appeal could spread, making it an important wild card in European Union parliamentary elections in May, when more traditional parties will be trying to hold off nationalist parties on the Continent.”

Hungary European Parliament - May 26, 2019 and Local - October 2019

Hungary Today reports: “A pro-government commentator thinks that opposition parties will lose votes if they run jointly in the 2019 European Parliamentary election. A liberal analyst wonders whether the protests against the Overtime Bill have united opposition voters.”

Greece Parliamentary - October 2019

AFP reports: “With the ballot scheduled for October but expected as early as March, hostility between the ruling leftist Syriza party and the frontrunning New Democracy conservatives has hit fever pitch.”

Eleni Chrepi at Bloomberg on why the road to victory in Greek elections runs through Macedonia: “Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has a lot riding on resolving a seven-decade naming dispute with his country’s northern neighbor, the Republic of Macedonia. Though the two sides are moving toward finalizing an agreement, the peril for Tsipras isn’t over. That’s because the accord could cost him his government, precipitating a snap election before its term expires in October 2019.”

Poland Parliamentary - November 2019

On the London School of Economics’ EUROPP blog: “Aleks Szczerbiak writes that ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, the party retains a lead in the polls and is still viewed as more credible than the liberal-centrist opposition on the issues citizens care most about.”

Croatia Presidential - December 2019

Balkan Insight reports: “Croatia will be busy with elections in 2019. European Parliamentary elections are due in May while Croatia’s presidential elections kick off in December. The country may also face snap parliament elections, which have been hanging in the air for some time, as political divisions threaten to topple the weak government at any time.”

Spain, Andalusia Regional - December 2018

The far-right populist party Vox won seats in Andalusia’s regional legislature in December, marking the first time the far-right has won seats in a Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy. El Pais reports that Vox will now back the center-right to form a government, which would end 36 years of socialist government in Andalusia if successful.

Bosnia and Herzegovina - October 2018

The international media is starting to cover the protests and government crackdown in Banja Luka, the de facto area of the autonomous Serb section of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyst Rob Thomas notes that Dodik has been waging a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including arresting sitting members of Parliament and throwing spurious criminal charges at leaders of the opposition.

Latvia Parliamentary - October 6, 2018

Euractiv reports that Latvia’s president has made a third attempt to bring forth a government, nearly three months after elections produced a hung parliament. He has asked Krišjānis Kariņš, Member of the European Parliament from the center-right European People’s Party, to form a government after the New Conservative party and anti-establishment KPV LV party failed. This is the longest it has taken for the Saema (parliament) to choose a government.

Sweden Parliamentary - September 2018

Sweden still doesn’t have a government. September’s parliamentary elections produced a hung parliament, in which the mainstream right and left coalitions each had about 40 percent of the vote respectively, with the far-right populist Sweden Democrats gaining 20 percent of the seats. The mainstream parties all want to keep the Sweden Democrats out of government (and out of the role of kingmaker), but have been unable to build a parliamentary majority in support of a government. Two votes have already failed – an unprecedented situation in modern Sweden. The Local reports: “[Parliament speaker Andreas] Norlén has already named January 16th as the date when the next prime ministerial candidate will face a parliamentary vote. But it is not yet clear who this candidate will be.”

The Guardian’s Jon Henley wonders whether Annie Lööf, leader of the center-right Centre Party, could become prime minister with the backing of the Social Democrats. This scenario seems unlikely given that Lööf pledged during the campaign not to join a Social Democrat government, but it would avoid new elections, which will have to take place in April if no one succeeds in forming a government.

Serbia - Possible Snap Elections

Independent Balkan News Agency reports that Serbian president Alexander Vucic will decide in February to hold early elections, which he has been threatening in the face of ongoing protests. They note that snap elections are a regular occurrence in Serbia.

B92 reports: “Opposition SDS leader Boris Tadic has assessed that it is more likely that that Serbia will hold early elections than that it won’t. However, the former president said that the opposition should not accept elections while President Aleksandar Vucic has full control over election processes and the media….According to him, it is more realistic for the opposition to boycott the elections than for the authorities fulfill the conditions for fair elections.”

United Kingdom

Politico reports: “Theresa May’s government suffered another defeat at the hands of anti-Brexit MPs in parliament Wednesday in a move that threatens to fast-forward the expected political crisis facing the prime minister if her Brexit deal is rejected next week.”

Upcoming Elections
Estonia Parliamentary – March 3, 2019
University of Maryland professor Terry Thompson on how the Baltics counter Russian misinformation: “Disinformation is a key part of Russia’s overall effort to undermine Western governments. As a result, the battle is ever-changing, with Russians constantly trying new angles of attack and target countries like the Baltic nations identifying and thwarting those efforts. The most effective responses will involve coordination between governmentscommercial technology companies and the news industry and social media platforms to identify and address disinformation.”

Estonia 200, a new pro-Europe political party, unveiled but quickly retracted a series of controversial ads at bus stops. Estonia 200 leader Kristina Kallas said the ads were meant to highlight existing problems in Estonian society, but other political parties took offense.

Slovakia Presidential – March 9, 2019
Ian Johnson on how Slovakian citizens defeated the oligarchs: “Over the past year, however, something unexpected happened. Instead of joining Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic in sliding toward authoritarianism, hundreds of thousands of Slovaks have rallied around their fragile democracy….Although Slovakia’s leaders have changed, their autocratically oriented government remains in control, and could win this year’s presidential and next year’s parliamentary elections. But at a time when democracy is under siege around the world, Slovakia’s spirited response is an important counterpoint, a small victory built on luck, guile, and courage. ”

Finland Parliamentary – April 14, 2019
YLE, Finland’s public broadcaster, reports: “Four political parties without a current seat in the Finnish Parliament have decided to form an electoral union, in the hopes of winning at least one MP post. Finland’s Feminist Party, Pirate Party, Animal Justice Party and Liberal Party have decided to come together to create a joint electoral union in Helsinki ahead of the parliamentary elections on 14 April.”

YLE also reports: “With two elections coming up this spring, Finland’s government is launching a multimedia campaign to urge people to vote – and to identify and critically approach claims circulating on the internet.”

European Elections – May 26, 2019
The question about the upcoming European elections is how well populist parties will do, and whether they will be able to position themselves to reshape Europe.

The Economist’s Charlemagne writes: “When historians look back on 2019 in Europe, what will they say? Many will doubtless discern a turning-point. Not only is Britain leaving the eu, but in May voters in the remaining 27 member states will elect a new European Parliament and end the majority that the two big-tent political groups—the Christian democrats and social democrats—have enjoyed in the European institutions for decades.”

Fredrick Erixon of the European Centre for International Political Economy opines in the Spectator: “In the past, it never really mattered much if the Euro election was carried by the left or the right: the result was the same anyway….Yes, Euro elections would take in a haul of fist-shakers and heretics, and the odd political circus act. But whatever the question, the parliament’s answer had always been: ‘more Europe’.”

DW reports: “Italy’s Matteo Salvini and Poland’s Jaroslaw Kaczynski share a similar brand of nationalist politics. As the two meet in Warsaw, they are hoping to create a united conservative bloc for the European Parliament elections.”

Sean O’Grady at the Independent posits: “Together, by the looks of things, they will garner about a fifth to a third of the available vote, and perhaps more if there is another migrant crisis or economic disaster that will galvanise people and push the traditionally low turnout rates much higher. Proportional representation makes it easy for small groups to gain seats, but in many of the largest EU states the far right is well past the usual thresholds imposed in direct elections. They have their chance, and conditions are favouring them.”

King’s College London professor Alexander Clarkson writes: “In government, far-right populists are less likely to want to bring down the EU to their — and everybody else’s — disadvantage than to try to work the EU system to their advantage, harnessing it to their agenda.”

A new study from Harvard professor Yascha Mount and Jordan Kyle from the Tony Blair institute found that populism damages democracies.

The center-right European People’s Party kicked off a listening tour with Manfred Weber, its spitzenkandidat (lead candidate).

Austria European Parliament – May 26, 2019
Austria’s parties have begun positioning themselves for the European Parliament elections. While parties have mostly not announced their candidate lists yet, party leaders are making moves. Euractiv reports on the beginnings of the campaign and how this election will impact Austria’s domestic politics. 

Germany European Parliament – May 26, 2019
Politico reports: “Lawmakers need to brace for hacking attempts ahead of a European election and get better at protecting their information online, Germany’s interior minister warned in the aftermath of a breach that exposed the private data of almost 1,000 German politicians.”

Spain European Parliament – May 26, 2019
The New York Times reports on the rise of the far-right nationalist party Vox, which won seats in Andalusia’s recent regional elections: “In the greater political sphere in Spain, Vox remains a small player. But some analysts say its appeal could spread, making it an important wild card in European Union parliamentary elections in May, when more traditional parties will be trying to hold off nationalist parties on the Continent.”

Hungary European Parliament – May 26, 2019 and Local – October 2019
Hungary Today reports: “A pro-government commentator thinks that opposition parties will lose votes if they run jointly in the 2019 European Parliamentary election. A liberal analyst wonders whether the protests against the Overtime Bill have united opposition voters.”

Greece Parliamentary – October 2019
AFP reports: “With the ballot scheduled for October but expected as early as March, hostility between the ruling leftist Syriza party and the frontrunning New Democracy conservatives has hit fever pitch.”

Eleni Chrepi at Bloomberg on why the road to victory in Greek elections runs through Macedonia: “Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has a lot riding on resolving a seven-decade naming dispute with his country’s northern neighbor, the Republic of Macedonia. Though the two sides are moving toward finalizing an agreement, the peril for Tsipras isn’t over. That’s because the accord could cost him his government, precipitating a snap election before its term expires in October 2019.”

Poland Parliamentary – November 2019
On the London School of Economics’ EUROPP blog: “Aleks Szczerbiak writes that ahead of parliamentary elections later this year, the party retains a lead in the polls and is still viewed as more credible than the liberal-centrist opposition on the issues citizens care most about.”

Croatia Presidential – December 2019
Balkan Insight reports: “Croatia will be busy with elections in 2019. European Parliamentary elections are due in May while Croatia’s presidential elections kick off in December. The country may also face snap parliament elections, which have been hanging in the air for some time, as political divisions threaten to topple the weak government at any time.”

Recent Elections
Spain, Andalusia Regional – December 2018
The far-right populist party Vox won seats in Andalusia’s regional legislature in December, marking the first time the far-right has won seats in a Spanish legislative body since Spain became a democracy. El Pais reports that Vox will now back the center-right to form a government, which would end 36 years of socialist government in Andalusia if successful.

Bosnia and Herzegovina – October 2018
The international media is starting to cover the protests and government crackdown in Banja Luka, the de facto area of the autonomous Serb section of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Analyst Rob Thomas notes that Dodik has been waging a brutal crackdown on the opposition, including arresting sitting members of Parliament and throwing spurious criminal charges at leaders of the opposition.

Latvia Parliamentary – October 6, 2018
Euractiv reports that Latvia’s president has made a third attempt to bring forth a government, nearly three months after elections produced a hung parliament. He has asked Krišjānis Kariņš, Member of the European Parliament from the center-right European People’s Party, to form a government after the New Conservative party and anti-establishment KPV LV party failed. This is the longest it has taken for the Saema (parliament) to choose a government.

Sweden Parliamentary – September 2018
Sweden still doesn’t have a government. September’s parliamentary elections produced a hung parliament, in which the mainstream right and left coalitions each had about 40 percent of the vote respectively, with the far-right populist Sweden Democrats gaining 20 percent of the seats. The mainstream parties all want to keep the Sweden Democrats out of government (and out of the role of kingmaker), but have been unable to build a parliamentary majority in support of a government. Two votes have already failed – an unprecedented situation in modern Sweden. The Local reports: “[Parliament speaker Andreas] Norlén has already named January 16th as the date when the next prime ministerial candidate will face a parliamentary vote. But it is not yet clear who this candidate will be.”

The Guardian’s Jon Henley wonders whether Annie Lööf, leader of the center-right Centre Party, could become prime minister with the backing of the Social Democrats. This scenario seems unlikely given that Lööf pledged during the campaign not to join a Social Democrat government, but it would avoid new elections, which will have to take place in April if no one succeeds in forming a government.

Other Regional News and Views

Serbia – Possible Snap Elections
Independent Balkan News Agency reports that Serbian president Alexander Vucic will decide in February to hold early elections, which he has been threatening in the face of ongoing protests. They note that snap elections are a regular occurrence in Serbia.

B92 reports: “Opposition SDS leader Boris Tadic has assessed that it is more likely that that Serbia will hold early elections than that it won’t. However, the former president said that the opposition should not accept elections while President Aleksandar Vucic has full control over election processes and the media….According to him, it is more realistic for the opposition to boycott the elections than for the authorities fulfill the conditions for fair elections.”

United Kingdom
Politico reports: “Theresa May’s government suffered another defeat at the hands of anti-Brexit MPs in parliament Wednesday in a move that threatens to fast-forward the expected political crisis facing the prime minister if her Brexit deal is rejected next week.”

Estonia’s Riigikogu (Parliament) building. Photo credit: Guillaume Speurt

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