Europe This Week – December 26, 2018

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

France European Elections - May 26, 2019

Politico’s Zoya Sheftalovich reports: “The third-largest group in the European Parliament, the European Conservatives and Reformists, on Friday announced an alliance with the French Euroskeptic Debout la France (DF) party ahead of next year’s EU election. DF President Nicolas Dupont-Aignan has previously partnered with Marine Le Pen, before falling out with the far-right leader. POLITICO’s Maïa de La Baume writes in to report that DF is increasingly picking up support around France and is currently polling at around 8 percent.” Because the British Conservatives hold about a quarter of ECR’s MEPs, Brexit means they are on the hunt for new member parties.

Denmark General - By June 17, 2019

We usually use polling to predict election results. But there are other ways to try to read the tea leaves, including looking at political betting patterns. Dr. Matthew Partridge writes: “One of the major forthcoming European elections next year is the general election in Denmark, which will have to be held by 17 June. At the moment most people expect the Social Democrats to do well, and [bookmaker] Paddy Power has them as clear favorites to win most seats, at 1/5 (83.3%). It also thinks that the current prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen of the Danish Liberal Party, is the odds-on favorite to win, and it is quoting 1/3 (75%) on him staying in power.”

Belgium

Euractiv reports: “Belgian King Philippe accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Charles Michel on Friday (21 December) and requested his government stay on in a caretaker capacity for the coming months after his coalition split following an argument over migration. After three days of consultations with party leaders, the palace said in a statement that the king had established a willingness to guarantee the country was managed until the next election, due on 26 May. Belgium could have held an early election.”

Serbia

For the third week in a row, protests against President Alexander Vucic continue in Serbia. Protesters oppose his heavy-handed approach to political opponents and the media.

Sweden

Sweden still does not have a government. The Telegraph has a helpful article for understanding the situation and possible paths forward. Two interesting points: 1. Lund University professor Michael Sundström thinks new elections are unlikely: “For the upcoming two votes [in parliament], people will sharpen up at that point. No one wants another election except the Sweden Democrats. We would end up with the same situation as now; it may even be harder next time.” Also, the Telegraph notes: “Swedes are increasingly frustrated with the inaction caused by the leadership vacuum. Swedish budgets normally run to 3000 pages. Last month’s reached just 28, only the basics to keep the country ticking over.”

Swedish governments are usually coalitions – there have only been two Swedish elections where a single party received more than half the vote (1940 and 1968), but this time, the formation of a government is taking an unprecedentedly long time.

Upcoming Elections
France European Elections – May 26, 2019
Politico’s Zoya Sheftalovich reports: “The third-largest group in the European Parliament, the European Conservatives and Reformists, on Friday announced an alliance with the French Euroskeptic Debout la France (DF) party ahead of next year’s EU election. DF President Nicolas Dupont-Aignan has previously partnered with Marine Le Pen, before falling out with the far-right leader. POLITICO’s Maïa de La Baume writes in to report that DF is increasingly picking up support around France and is currently polling at around 8 percent.” Because the British Conservatives hold about a quarter of ECR’s MEPs, Brexit means they are on the hunt for new member parties.

Denmark General – By June 17, 2019
We usually use polling to predict election results. But there are other ways to try to read the tea leaves, including looking at political betting patterns. Dr. Matthew Partridge writes: “One of the major forthcoming European elections next year is the general election in Denmark, which will have to be held by 17 June. At the moment most people expect the Social Democrats to do well, and [bookmaker] Paddy Power has them as clear favorites to win most seats, at 1/5 (83.3%). It also thinks that the current prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen of the Danish Liberal Party, is the odds-on favorite to win, and it is quoting 1/3 (75%) on him staying in power.”

Recent Elections
Sweden
Sweden still does not have a government. The Telegraph has a helpful article for understanding the situation and possible paths forward. Two interesting points: 1. Lund University professor Michael Sundström thinks new elections are unlikely: “For the upcoming two votes [in parliament], people will sharpen up at that point. No one wants another election except the Sweden Democrats. We would end up with the same situation as now; it may even be harder next time.” Also, the Telegraph notes: “Swedes are increasingly frustrated with the inaction caused by the leadership vacuum. Swedish budgets normally run to 3000 pages. Last month’s reached just 28, only the basics to keep the country ticking over.”

Swedish governments are usually coalitions – there have only been two Swedish elections where a single party received more than half the vote (1940 and 1968), but this time, the formation of a government is taking an unprecedentedly long time.

Other Regional News and Views
Belgium
Euractiv reports: “Belgian King Philippe accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Charles Michel on Friday (21 December) and requested his government stay on in a caretaker capacity for the coming months after his coalition split following an argument over migration. After three days of consultations with party leaders, the palace said in a statement that the king had established a willingness to guarantee the country was managed until the next election, due on 26 May. Belgium could have held an early election.”

Serbia
For the third week in a row, protests against President Alexander Vucic continue in Serbia. Protesters oppose his heavy-handed approach to political opponents and the media.


A polling station in Gothenburg, Sweden during the 1940 general election, one of two instances in Swedish democratic history in which a single party received more than 50 percent of the vote. Photo credit: Göteborgs-Posten/Public Domain

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