Upcoming Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Background
RFE/RL: “Kazakhstan will hold a snap presidential election on June 9, the interim head of state Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has announced, moving the vote up by almost a year following Nursultan Nazarbaev’s resignation last month after 30 years in power.”
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL: “This is Kazakhstan’s first transition of leadership, but it is not the first change of presidents in Central Asia. There are some interesting comparisons between transitions of leadership in other Central Asian states and what is happening now in Kazakhstan.”
OSCE Election Observation Mission: “Following the announcement of the early election, several protests occurred in major cities, calling for the release of political prisoners and a boycott of the election. Authorities declared these assemblies illegal, resulting in dozens of people being arrested. Several international organizations have raised concerns about the ability to participate in political life.”
This week’s news
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Website fined for running online poll. Only government-friendly outfits are permitted to run vote surveys.”
RFE/RL: “Woke In Kazakhstan: Viral Videos Open Eyes To Political Problems”
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan’s pretend presidential election contest would not have been complete without a pretend debate among the pretend candidates. And so, seven debaters went onto state television station Khabar on May 29 in a chronometrically choreographed process devoid of verbal sparring, policy ideas or any kind of disagreement.”
Significance of this election
Despite these facts, Kazakhstan’s government seems to want the world to think that this will somehow be a real election. The country’s ambassador to the United States published a defense of his country (containing some “alternative facts”) in the Washington Times: “Stability is also of the utmost importance as Kazakhstan continues to engage with its international allies, including the United States. This is why the upcoming presidential election is crucial. A snap election is the best way to eliminate uncertainty and ensure dependability.”
Translation
Nargis Kassenova in The Diplomat: “The goals are to preserve the status, security, and wealth of Nazarbayev and his family, and to maintain his legacy as a statesman and Leader of the Nation. The rest can be subject to modifications. The main intrigue for me is whether this plan aspires for an upgrade of Kazakhstan’s political and economic system, or it’s focused on keeping the status quo as long as possible.”
France24: “In reality, Nazarbayev seems to have planned his retirement some time in advance. In 2010, a law enshrined the title of “First President” in the constitution, granting him life immunity, banking secrecy and several other juicy privileges. Other legal provisions ensure that he is consulted on all important political decisions.”
And Steve Bannon is there
Matthew Janney in Coda Story: “Bannon seems disinterested in answering the charge that his presence in kleptocratic Kazakhstan might be contradictory, given his supposed concern for the “little guy”. “[Nazarbayev] is an international hero,” he says about the recently resigned dictator.”
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019
Kyiv Post: “In the history of the parliamentary election campaigns in Ukraine, this one could be the hastiest. Seven weeks before the July 21 election, the political field is still full of undecided players, politicians who are yet to join any party, and new parties hurriedly recruiting members.”
Hromadske International: “A May 2019 survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group found that 43.8 percent of Ukrainians support President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s the Servant of the People party, while 10.5 percent support the pro-Moscow Opposition Platform – For Life. Just 8.8 percent say they will vote for the pro-Western European Solidarity party led by ex-President Petro Poroshenko.”
Jane’s 360: “Ukraine’s accelerated parliamentary election in July likely to benefit newer parties, complicating government formation”
VOA: “Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has rejected Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman’s resignation after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on May 20 called on the government to step down. Only 97 lawmakers voted on May 30 in favor of Groysman’s resignation — far short of the 226 votes needed to accept Groysman’s resignation.”
Euronews: “The former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, was greeted by cheering supporters and music at Kiev airport as he returned from exile to Ukraine on Wednesday. The country’s newly-elected president Volodymyr Zelensky made the move to reinstate his citizenship, amending the order of his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.”
Unian: “The Movement of New Forces led by ex-president of Georgia and ex-Governor of Ukraine’s Odesa region Mikheil Saakashvili will run for Ukraine’s parliament.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019
BelTA: “The Central Election Commission proposes to hold the elections to the House of Representatives on 17 November….”
Why this matters
The elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus. Grigory Joffe has an interesting piece for the Jamestown Foundation analyzing various Russian attitudes toward Belarus.
Anhelina Pryimak, Visegrad Insight: “However, the results of the elections are not as much important for Russia, as it is widely known – there are no free elections in Belarus, whereas the idea of showing a weak leader [Lukashenko] is the goal. And as a continuation, the promotion of an argument in defence of “deep integration” with Russia as the only possible scenario for further development of Belarus.”
Note
Belarus has only two opposition MPs out of 110 members of the lower house – and both are female. The opposition is pushing back against the deal.
Belsat: “Our country does not need the Union State, the public campaign ‘Belarus Go!’ believes. The activists are collecting signatures for our country’s withdrawal from the alliance.” The petition is organized by a staffer for one of the opposition MPs.
Past Elections
Azerbaijan Presidential – April 11, 2018 (Municipal elections planned for December 2019 and Parliamentary elections expected in 2020)
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Vagifgizi, a freelance journalist working in Azerbaijan, has repeatedly faced persecution for her activities and has been detained by police. On 13 May, the Chief Prosecutor’s Office lifted restrictions on her ability to leave the country that had been in place since 2015.”
Voice of America notes: “Human Rights Watch says “the space for independent activism, critical journalism and opposition political activity in Azerbaijan has been virtually extinguished.” [Reporters Without Borders] ranks Azerbaijan 166th out of 183 countries in its 2019 World Press Freedom Index.”
Eurasia This Week – May 30, 2019
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Last Updated: June 11, 2019 by 21votes
May 30, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential - June 9, 2019
RFE/RL: “Kazakhstan will hold a snap presidential election on June 9, the interim head of state Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has announced, moving the vote up by almost a year following Nursultan Nazarbaev’s resignation last month after 30 years in power.”
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL: “This is Kazakhstan’s first transition of leadership, but it is not the first change of presidents in Central Asia. There are some interesting comparisons between transitions of leadership in other Central Asian states and what is happening now in Kazakhstan.”
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Website fined for running online poll. Only government-friendly outfits are permitted to run vote surveys.”
RFE/RL: “Woke In Kazakhstan: Viral Videos Open Eyes To Political Problems”
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan’s pretend presidential election contest would not have been complete without a pretend debate among the pretend candidates. And so, seven debaters went onto state television station Khabar on May 29 in a chronometrically choreographed process devoid of verbal sparring, policy ideas or any kind of disagreement.”
Belarus Parliamentary - November 17, 2019
BelTA: “The Central Election Commission proposes to hold the elections to the House of Representatives on 17 November….”
Why this matters
The elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus. Grigory Joffe has an interesting piece for the Jamestown Foundation analyzing various Russian attitudes toward Belarus.
Anhelina Pryimak, Visegrad Insight: “However, the results of the elections are not as much important for Russia, as it is widely known – there are no free elections in Belarus, whereas the idea of showing a weak leader [Lukashenko] is the goal. And as a continuation, the promotion of an argument in defence of “deep integration” with Russia as the only possible scenario for further development of Belarus.”
Note
Belarus has only two opposition MPs out of 110 members of the lower house – and both are female. The opposition is pushing back against the deal.
Belsat: “Our country does not need the Union State, the public campaign ‘Belarus Go!’ believes. The activists are collecting signatures for our country’s withdrawal from the alliance.” The petition is organized by a staffer for one of the opposition MPs.
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary - July 21, 2019
Kyiv Post: “In the history of the parliamentary election campaigns in Ukraine, this one could be the hastiest. Seven weeks before the July 21 election, the political field is still full of undecided players, politicians who are yet to join any party, and new parties hurriedly recruiting members.”
Hromadske International: “A May 2019 survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group found that 43.8 percent of Ukrainians support President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s the Servant of the People party, while 10.5 percent support the pro-Moscow Opposition Platform – For Life. Just 8.8 percent say they will vote for the pro-Western European Solidarity party led by ex-President Petro Poroshenko.”
Jane’s 360: “Ukraine’s accelerated parliamentary election in July likely to benefit newer parties, complicating government formation”
VOA: “Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has rejected Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman’s resignation after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on May 20 called on the government to step down. Only 97 lawmakers voted on May 30 in favor of Groysman’s resignation — far short of the 226 votes needed to accept Groysman’s resignation.”
Euronews: “The former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, was greeted by cheering supporters and music at Kiev airport as he returned from exile to Ukraine on Wednesday. The country’s newly-elected president Volodymyr Zelensky made the move to reinstate his citizenship, amending the order of his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.”
Unian: “The Movement of New Forces led by ex-president of Georgia and ex-Governor of Ukraine’s Odesa region Mikheil Saakashvili will run for Ukraine’s parliament.”
Azerbaijan Presidential - April 11, 2018 (Municipal elections planned for December 2019 and Parliamentary elections expected in 2020)
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Vagifgizi, a freelance journalist working in Azerbaijan, has repeatedly faced persecution for her activities and has been detained by police. On 13 May, the Chief Prosecutor’s Office lifted restrictions on her ability to leave the country that had been in place since 2015.”
Voice of America notes: “Human Rights Watch says “the space for independent activism, critical journalism and opposition political activity in Azerbaijan has been virtually extinguished.” [Reporters Without Borders] ranks Azerbaijan 166th out of 183 countries in its 2019 World Press Freedom Index.”
Upcoming Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Background
RFE/RL: “Kazakhstan will hold a snap presidential election on June 9, the interim head of state Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev has announced, moving the vote up by almost a year following Nursultan Nazarbaev’s resignation last month after 30 years in power.”
Bruce Pannier, RFE/RL: “This is Kazakhstan’s first transition of leadership, but it is not the first change of presidents in Central Asia. There are some interesting comparisons between transitions of leadership in other Central Asian states and what is happening now in Kazakhstan.”
OSCE Election Observation Mission: “Following the announcement of the early election, several protests occurred in major cities, calling for the release of political prisoners and a boycott of the election. Authorities declared these assemblies illegal, resulting in dozens of people being arrested. Several international organizations have raised concerns about the ability to participate in political life.”
This week’s news
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Website fined for running online poll. Only government-friendly outfits are permitted to run vote surveys.”
RFE/RL: “Woke In Kazakhstan: Viral Videos Open Eyes To Political Problems”
Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan’s pretend presidential election contest would not have been complete without a pretend debate among the pretend candidates. And so, seven debaters went onto state television station Khabar on May 29 in a chronometrically choreographed process devoid of verbal sparring, policy ideas or any kind of disagreement.”
Significance of this election
Despite these facts, Kazakhstan’s government seems to want the world to think that this will somehow be a real election. The country’s ambassador to the United States published a defense of his country (containing some “alternative facts”) in the Washington Times: “Stability is also of the utmost importance as Kazakhstan continues to engage with its international allies, including the United States. This is why the upcoming presidential election is crucial. A snap election is the best way to eliminate uncertainty and ensure dependability.”
Translation
Nargis Kassenova in The Diplomat: “The goals are to preserve the status, security, and wealth of Nazarbayev and his family, and to maintain his legacy as a statesman and Leader of the Nation. The rest can be subject to modifications. The main intrigue for me is whether this plan aspires for an upgrade of Kazakhstan’s political and economic system, or it’s focused on keeping the status quo as long as possible.”
France24: “In reality, Nazarbayev seems to have planned his retirement some time in advance. In 2010, a law enshrined the title of “First President” in the constitution, granting him life immunity, banking secrecy and several other juicy privileges. Other legal provisions ensure that he is consulted on all important political decisions.”
And Steve Bannon is there
Matthew Janney in Coda Story: “Bannon seems disinterested in answering the charge that his presence in kleptocratic Kazakhstan might be contradictory, given his supposed concern for the “little guy”. “[Nazarbayev] is an international hero,” he says about the recently resigned dictator.”
Ukraine Snap Parliamentary – July 21, 2019
Kyiv Post: “In the history of the parliamentary election campaigns in Ukraine, this one could be the hastiest. Seven weeks before the July 21 election, the political field is still full of undecided players, politicians who are yet to join any party, and new parties hurriedly recruiting members.”
Hromadske International: “A May 2019 survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group found that 43.8 percent of Ukrainians support President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s the Servant of the People party, while 10.5 percent support the pro-Moscow Opposition Platform – For Life. Just 8.8 percent say they will vote for the pro-Western European Solidarity party led by ex-President Petro Poroshenko.”
Jane’s 360: “Ukraine’s accelerated parliamentary election in July likely to benefit newer parties, complicating government formation”
VOA: “Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, has rejected Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman’s resignation after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on May 20 called on the government to step down. Only 97 lawmakers voted on May 30 in favor of Groysman’s resignation — far short of the 226 votes needed to accept Groysman’s resignation.”
Euronews: “The former president of Georgia, Mikheil Saakashvili, was greeted by cheering supporters and music at Kiev airport as he returned from exile to Ukraine on Wednesday. The country’s newly-elected president Volodymyr Zelensky made the move to reinstate his citizenship, amending the order of his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.”
Unian: “The Movement of New Forces led by ex-president of Georgia and ex-Governor of Ukraine’s Odesa region Mikheil Saakashvili will run for Ukraine’s parliament.”
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019
BelTA: “The Central Election Commission proposes to hold the elections to the House of Representatives on 17 November….”
Why this matters
The elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus. Grigory Joffe has an interesting piece for the Jamestown Foundation analyzing various Russian attitudes toward Belarus.
Anhelina Pryimak, Visegrad Insight: “However, the results of the elections are not as much important for Russia, as it is widely known – there are no free elections in Belarus, whereas the idea of showing a weak leader [Lukashenko] is the goal. And as a continuation, the promotion of an argument in defence of “deep integration” with Russia as the only possible scenario for further development of Belarus.”
Note
Belarus has only two opposition MPs out of 110 members of the lower house – and both are female. The opposition is pushing back against the deal.
Belsat: “Our country does not need the Union State, the public campaign ‘Belarus Go!’ believes. The activists are collecting signatures for our country’s withdrawal from the alliance.” The petition is organized by a staffer for one of the opposition MPs.
Past Elections
Azerbaijan Presidential – April 11, 2018 (Municipal elections planned for December 2019 and Parliamentary elections expected in 2020)
Kamran Mahmudov, OC Media: “Vagifgizi, a freelance journalist working in Azerbaijan, has repeatedly faced persecution for her activities and has been detained by police. On 13 May, the Chief Prosecutor’s Office lifted restrictions on her ability to leave the country that had been in place since 2015.”
Voice of America notes: “Human Rights Watch says “the space for independent activism, critical journalism and opposition political activity in Azerbaijan has been virtually extinguished.” [Reporters Without Borders] ranks Azerbaijan 166th out of 183 countries in its 2019 World Press Freedom Index.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia
On deck: Kazakhstan snap presidential (June 9); Moldova local (due by June 16 but date not set yet – opposition believes they will be delayed); Ukraine snap parliamentary (July 21); Kazakhstan local (September); Russia local (September 8); Ukraine local (October); Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary (December 19); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
Photo credit: Wikimedia/Yakov Fedorov
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Category: This Week Tags: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine