Asia – December 7, 2018

India

Kartikeya Singh of the Center for Strategic and International Studies analyzes the implications of this month’s elections elections in five states, where 16 percent of India’s population, or 200 million people, will cast ballots for state assemblies ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha (parliamentary) elections. Exit polls are currently showing the two parties neck-and-neck in these contests.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh’s two main parties are finalizing their candidates for the 300 directly-elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) (the additional 50 seats are reserved for women and selected by political parties). The Election Commission has rejected the nominations of a number of senior opposition figures, including the imprisoned Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which boycotted the 2014 elections but is contesting this year’s polls. Freedom House notes: “Severe levels of antagonism between the two party leaders as well as lower-level cadres ensures that the overall level of political violence remains high; in 2017, the human rights group Odhikar registered 77 deaths and more than 4,635 people injured as a result of inter- or intraparty clashes.”

Hong Kong

Another pro-democracy activist, Legislative Council member Eddie Chu, has been banned from standing in Hong Kong’s village representative elections next month, and pro-Beijing voices have called for his impeachment. The stated reason was that Chu was “implicitly confirming support for independence as a possible option for Hong Kong people,” although he has said that he does not support independence. Several Hong Kong legal scholars say that the decision was based on shaky evidence and reasoning.

Thailand

Thailand’s military government has proposed holding general elections on February 24.

Taiwan

Richard C. Bush of the Brookings Institution looks at the domestic factors that could have influenced Taiwan’s recent local elections, contrary to China’s narrative that the election was a referendum on President Tsai Ing-Wen’s cross-strait policy.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) has declared all votes cast in Kabul province during the October 20 parliamentary elections to be invalid, citing 25 reasons, including fraud and mismanagement. Kabul province has 33 seats in the 250-member parliament, including nine reserved for women. Elections took place in 33 out of 34 provinces, but officials have only announced results for 20 provinces thus far. s

Cambodia

The government appears to be opening up some political space, but many Cambodian analysts question the sincerity of the measures, especially since opposition leader Kem Sokha of the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) and others remain detained and exiled, including Sam Rainsy, CNRP’s founder, and the party remains effectively banned despite having received over 40 percent of the vote in local elections last year. CNRP held a divisive  “world congress” in Atlanta last week.

Laos

Radio Free Asia reports: “An annual pardon of prisoners in Laos has freed around 1,700 inmates from the Southeast Asian nation’s jails, while leaving all convicted of political offenses still behind bars, sources say. The mass release in celebration of the country’s National Day on Dec. 2 continues a long tradition in the one-party communist state of leaving political dissidents locked up while others go free, a Lao rights advocate based in Paris says. Speaking on Friday to RFA’s Lao Service, Vanida Thepsouvanh—president of the Lao Movement for Human Rights—said that, as far as is known, no political prisoner has ever been granted amnesty on a Lao National Day.”

Mongolia

The South China Morning Post reports: “Mongolian Prime Minister Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh last week survived a vote of no confidence – but now he must juggle party and opposition interests to retain power and fulfil new promises to fight corruption, and his success or failure in doing so will have lasting implications for the country.”

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka’s political crisis continues.

South Korea

South Korea continues to develop K-Voting, its blockchain-based voting system.

Upcoming Elections in the News
India State Elections – December 11, 2018
Kartikeya Singh of the Center for Strategic and International Studies analyzes the implications of this month’s elections elections in five states, where 16 percent of India’s population, or 200 million people, will cast ballots for state assemblies ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha (parliamentary) elections. Exit polls are currently showing the two parties neck-and-neck in these contests.

Bangladesh Parliamentary – December 30, 2018
Bangladesh’s two main parties are finalizing their candidates for the 300 directly-elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament) (the additional 50 seats are reserved for women and selected by political parties). The Election Commission has rejected the nominations of a number of senior opposition figures, including the imprisoned Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which boycotted the 2014 elections but is contesting this year’s polls. Freedom House notes: “Severe levels of antagonism between the two party leaders as well as lower-level cadres ensures that the overall level of political violence remains high; in 2017, the human rights group Odhikar registered 77 deaths and more than 4,635 people injured as a result of inter- or intraparty clashes.”

Hong Kong Village Elections – January 2019
Another pro-democracy activist, Legislative Council member Eddie Chu, has been banned from standing in Hong Kong’s village representative elections next month, and pro-Beijing voices have called for his impeachment. The stated reason was that Chu was “implicitly confirming support for independence as a possible option for Hong Kong people,” although he has said that he does not support independence. Several Hong Kong legal scholars say that the decision was based on shaky evidence and reasoning.

Thailand General – February 24, 2019
Thailand’s military government has proposed holding general elections on February 24.

Recent Elections in the News
Taiwan
Richard C. Bush of the Brookings Institution looks at the domestic factors that could have influenced Taiwan’s recent local elections, contrary to China’s narrative that the election was a referendum on President Tsai Ing-Wen’s cross-strait policy.

Afghanistan
Afghanistan’s Independent Electoral Complaints Commission (IECC) has declared all votes cast in Kabul province during the October 20 parliamentary elections to be invalid, citing 25 reasons, including fraud and mismanagement. Kabul province has 33 seats in the 250-member parliament, including nine reserved for women. Elections took place in 33 out of 34 provinces, but officials have only announced results for 20 provinces thus far. s

Other Regional News and Views
Cambodia
The government appears to be opening up some political space, but many Cambodian analysts question the sincerity of the measures, especially since opposition leader Kem Sokha of the Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP) and others remain detained and exiled, including Sam Rainsy, CNRP’s founder, and the party remains effectively banned despite having received over 40 percent of the vote in local elections last year. CNRP held a divisive  “world congress” in Atlanta last week.

Laos
Radio Free Asia reports: “An annual pardon of prisoners in Laos has freed around 1,700 inmates from the Southeast Asian nation’s jails, while leaving all convicted of political offenses still behind bars, sources say. The mass release in celebration of the country’s National Day on Dec. 2 continues a long tradition in the one-party communist state of leaving political dissidents locked up while others go free, a Lao rights advocate based in Paris says. Speaking on Friday to RFA’s Lao Service, Vanida Thepsouvanh—president of the Lao Movement for Human Rights—said that, as far as is known, no political prisoner has ever been granted amnesty on a Lao National Day.”

Mongolia
The South China Morning Post reports: “Mongolian Prime Minister Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh last week survived a vote of no confidence – but now he must juggle party and opposition interests to retain power and fulfil new promises to fight corruption, and his success or failure in doing so will have lasting implications for the country.”

Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s political crisis continues.

South Korea
South Korea continues to develop K-Voting, its blockchain-based voting system.

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