Asia This Week – January 18, 2019

January 18, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Asia and the Pacific on Fridays. Click the map pins.

Thailand Snap Parliamentary - February 24, 2019

The Thai military has hinted that the long-delayed elections could be delayed once more, to March 24.

Channel News Asia reports: “Rival groups held demonstrations in Thailand’s capital on Saturday, with hundreds of people demanding quick elections to end military rule and a much smaller group of pro-junta supporters saying it was too soon for a vote.”

The Bangkok Post reports: “The Election Commission’s (EC) proposal to set March 10 as the new election date could be scuppered as the government prefers March 24 instead.”

The Guardian notes: “It is the fifth time the military junta, which took over in a bloodless coup in 2014, has delayed elections and prevented the country’s return to democracy. Known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has repeatedly declared the country is “not ready” for elections but the most recent delay has been attributed to concerns it would interfere with the upcoming coronation of the new king.”

Maldives Parliamentary - April 9, 2019

The Maldivian Democratic Party is holding primaries to select its candidates for the April parliamentary elections, which come on the heels of a remarkable surprise victory for the pro-democracy coalition.

Meanwhile, the authoritarian camp is in disarray.

Indonesia General - April 16, 2019

DW reports: “Indonesia election pits populism against the status quo. The campaign for Indonesia’s presidency has officially kicked off with a debate between incumbent President Joko Widodo and populist challenger Prabowo Subianto.” The pundits’ consensus was that neither candidate performed impressively.

The Economist argues that populism is holding back Indonesia’s economic growth: “Jokowi’s biggest vulnerability is the economy, where returns have not matched his promises. During the 2014 campaign Jokowi pledged to deliver GDP growth of 7% a year by the end of his first term. That will not happen.”

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that Jokowi leads the polls.

India General - April or May 2019

This spring, the world’s biggest elections will take place in India, where over 800 million eligible voters will elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the national parliament. The election pits Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which swept the 2014 elections – the first time in 30 years that a single party obtained a parliamentary majority – against a resurgent Indian National Congress, led by the charismatic Rahul Gandhi.

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) fellow Abdul Basit argues that BJP’s defeat in recent state elections means that the upcoming national polls will be truly competitive.

BJP is doing everything it can to preserve its majority. Reuters reports: “A series of vote-catching measures planned by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he braces for a difficult general election may cost more than 1 trillion rupees ($14 billion), two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.” Emily Schmall at the Associated Press reports: “India’s Hindu nationalist-led government is splashing out on a religious megafest, spending unprecedented sums as part of a strategy to focus on the country’s majority Hindu population ahead of a general election due this year.”

Bloomberg’s Archana Chaudary looks at how the lower castes could play the role of kingmakers.

The Times of India reports that the election schedule will be announced the first week of March. Facebook has announced stricter ad rules ahead of the elections.  

Philippines Legislative and Local - May 13, 2019

Michael Bueza at Rappler reports: “The campaign period for national candidates for the 2019 midterm elections will begin in February, but many senatorial aspirants have started making the rounds on social media and on the ground already, in the hopes of catching voters’ attention early on.”

Philippines politics largely revolves around personalities and families, not parties or ideologies. Ronald U. Mendoza and Miann Banaag at Ateneo de Manila University found that following the 2016 local elections, over 80 percent of governors and 78 percent of representatives were dynasts. Forty families control 75 percent of the country’s wealth. Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s populist president, has waged a war on drugs resulting in thousands of extrajudicial killings, and is viewed by many as an authoritarian.

https://twitter.com/rapplerdotcom/status/1085506725904560129

CNN reports: “ Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief C/Supt. Oscar Albayalde reported multiple arrests for violations 24 hours after the start of the nationwide gun ban for the elections season.”

Australia General - On or Before May 18, 2019

Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports: “Facebook will wait until Australia’s federal election date is revealed to decide which, if any, of its planned political advertising restrictions it will roll out in a bid to reduce potential interference.”

Hong Kong Local - December 2019 and Legislative - 2020

In December, Hong Kong will elect members of its 18 District Councils, followed by elections to the Legislative Council (LegCo), Hong Kong’s semi-democratically elected parliament, in 2020.

Election officials have unseated elected officials and banned candidates deemed insufficiently loyal to Beijing. Recently, a pro-democracy former legislator was banned from running in this month’s rural representative elections. China is pressing Hong Kong to pass a law jailing citizens for “disrespecting” China’s national anthem in its latest move to bring the territory to heel. The law would also force international students in Hong Kong schools to sing the Chinese anthem.

Sri Lanka Presidential and Legislative - 2020 (Snap elections in 2019 possible)

Meera Srinivasan at The Hindu writes: “It’s a poll year in Sri Lanka — except that few know whether it is the provincial, presidential or general election that will be held first. Provincial elections are overdue, with the terms of six out of nine Provincial Councils in the island having expired in 2018, but the possibility of a presidential election has elicited more interest in the country.”

Singapore Legislative - 2020 (snap possible)

Bhavan Jaipragas at the South China Morning Post reports: “A former stalwart of Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP) on Friday announced he was joining hands with former party colleagues to form a new party – raising the prospect of a splintering of the party for the first time in decades. Tan Cheng Bock’s announcement on Facebook comes amid rising speculation that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will call snap elections this year, well ahead of a January 2021 deadline.”

Bangladesh Parliamentary - December 30, 2018

Bangladesh may see its first transgender members of parliament following next month’s election for 50 seats reserved for women.

Taiwan Local - December 2018

Reuters reports: “Taiwan will step up its investigation of pro-Beijing newspapers accused by politicians on the self-ruled island of spreading fake news and surveillance activities that infringe national security, a security official said on Friday.”

Cambodia General - July 2018

Radio Free Asia reports: “Cambodia’s Ministry of the Interior on Wednesday arrested a member of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party after he posted a Facebook message saying the European Union plans to impose a tariff on Cambodian rice, sources in the country said.”

In good news, two other opposition members had their restrictions on political activity lifted by a royal decree approving their application for restoration of political rights.

Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen, has been in power since 1985. Last year, his party won general elections with no serious challenge because most of the opposition had been banned from political activity.

Malaysia General - May 2018 (Cameron Highlands By-Election - January 26, 2019)

Last year, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the then-incument Barisan Nasional party in parliamentary elections.

On January 26, Cameron Highlands, famous for tea plantations and the mysterious disappearance of American silk merchant Jim Thompson, will hold a by-election after the election court disqualified C Sivarraajh from the Barisan Nasional party, due to misconduct during the election.

Free Malaysia Today, which describes the election as an “acid test for both sides,” notes: “The latest and fifth by-election in Cameron Highlands is very significant as it will be the first time BN has to defend a seat. The constituency was won by BN ever since it was created in 2004. But over the successive elections, the margin of victory secured by BN has been greatly reduced.” PH won the last four by-elections, but they were all in seats that PH had originally won in 2018.

Upcoming Elections
On deck: Japan, provincial elections throughout the year; Solomon Islands general (February);  Thailand parliamentary (February 24); Micronesia congressional (March 5); Australia, New South Wales state (March 23); Tuvalu legislative (March 31); India, general and Andhra Pradesh and Odisha states (April/May); Japan local (April); Maldives parliamentary (April 9); Indonesia general (April 17); Philippines legislative and local (May 13); Australia parliamentary (May 18); Japan legislative – half of upper house (July); Nauru legislative (July); IndiaMaharashtra state (September); New Zealand local (October 12); Hong Kong local (November); Marshall Islands legislative (November); Kiribati legislative (December)

Thailand Snap Parliamentary – February 24, 2019
The Thai military has hinted that the long-delayed elections could be delayed once more, to March 24.

Channel News Asia reports: “Rival groups held demonstrations in Thailand’s capital on Saturday, with hundreds of people demanding quick elections to end military rule and a much smaller group of pro-junta supporters saying it was too soon for a vote.”

The Bangkok Post reports: “The Election Commission’s (EC) proposal to set March 10 as the new election date could be scuppered as the government prefers March 24 instead.”

The Guardian notes: “It is the fifth time the military junta, which took over in a bloodless coup in 2014, has delayed elections and prevented the country’s return to democracy. Known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), it has repeatedly declared the country is “not ready” for elections but the most recent delay has been attributed to concerns it would interfere with the upcoming coronation of the new king.”

Maldives Parliamentary – April 9, 2019
The Maldivian Democratic Party is holding primaries to select its candidates for the April parliamentary elections, which come on the heels of a remarkable surprise victory for the pro-democracy coalition.

Meanwhile, the authoritarian camp is in disarray.

Indonesia General – April 16, 2019
DW reports: “Indonesia election pits populism against the status quo. The campaign for Indonesia’s presidency has officially kicked off with a debate between incumbent President Joko Widodo and populist challenger Prabowo Subianto.” The pundits’ consensus was that neither candidate performed impressively.

The Economist argues that populism is holding back Indonesia’s economic growth: “Jokowi’s biggest vulnerability is the economy, where returns have not matched his promises. During the 2014 campaign Jokowi pledged to deliver GDP growth of 7% a year by the end of his first term. That will not happen.”

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports that Jokowi leads the polls.

India General – April or May 2019
This spring, the world’s biggest elections will take place in India, where over 800 million eligible voters will elect 543 members of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the national parliament. The election pits Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, which swept the 2014 elections – the first time in 30 years that a single party obtained a parliamentary majority – against a resurgent Indian National Congress, led by the charismatic Rahul Gandhi.

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) fellow Abdul Basit argues that BJP’s defeat in recent state elections means that the upcoming national polls will be truly competitive.

BJP is doing everything it can to preserve its majority. Reuters reports: “A series of vote-catching measures planned by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as he braces for a difficult general election may cost more than 1 trillion rupees ($14 billion), two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said.” Emily Schmall at the Associated Press reports: “India’s Hindu nationalist-led government is splashing out on a religious megafest, spending unprecedented sums as part of a strategy to focus on the country’s majority Hindu population ahead of a general election due this year.”

Bloomberg’s Archana Chaudary looks at how the lower castes could play the role of kingmakers.

The Times of India reports that the election schedule will be announced the first week of March. Facebook has announced stricter ad rules ahead of the elections.  

Philippines Legislative and Local – May 13, 2019
Michael Bueza at Rappler reports: “The campaign period for national candidates for the 2019 midterm elections will begin in February, but many senatorial aspirants have started making the rounds on social media and on the ground already, in the hopes of catching voters’ attention early on.”

Philippines politics largely revolves around personalities and families, not parties or ideologies. Ronald U. Mendoza and Miann Banaag at Ateneo de Manila University found that following the 2016 local elections, over 80 percent of governors and 78 percent of representatives were dynasts. Forty families control 75 percent of the country’s wealth. Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s populist president, has waged a war on drugs resulting in thousands of extrajudicial killings, and is viewed by many as an authoritarian.

CNN reports: “ Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief C/Supt. Oscar Albayalde reported multiple arrests for violations 24 hours after the start of the nationwide gun ban for the elections season.”

Australia General – On or Before May 18, 2019
Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports: “Facebook will wait until Australia’s federal election date is revealed to decide which, if any, of its planned political advertising restrictions it will roll out in a bid to reduce potential interference.”

Hong Kong Local – December 2019 and Legislative – 2020
In December, Hong Kong will elect members of its 18 District Councils, followed by elections to the Legislative Council (LegCo), Hong Kong’s semi-democratically elected parliament, in 2020.

Election officials have unseated elected officials and banned candidates deemed insufficiently loyal to Beijing. Recently, a pro-democracy former legislator was banned from running in this month’s rural representative elections. China is pressing Hong Kong to pass a law jailing citizens for “disrespecting” China’s national anthem in its latest move to bring the territory to heel. The law would also force international students in Hong Kong schools to sing the Chinese anthem.

Sri Lanka Presidential and Legislative – 2020 (Snap elections in 2019 possible)
Meera Srinivasan at The Hindu writes: “It’s a poll year in Sri Lanka — except that few know whether it is the provincial, presidential or general election that will be held first. Provincial elections are overdue, with the terms of six out of nine Provincial Councils in the island having expired in 2018, but the possibility of a presidential election has elicited more interest in the country.”

Singapore Legislative – 2020 (snap possible)
Bhavan Jaipragas at the South China Morning Post reports: “A former stalwart of Singapore’s People’s Action Party (PAP) on Friday announced he was joining hands with former party colleagues to form a new party – raising the prospect of a splintering of the party for the first time in decades. Tan Cheng Bock’s announcement on Facebook comes amid rising speculation that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will call snap elections this year, well ahead of a January 2021 deadline.”

Past Elections
Bangladesh Parliamentary – December 30, 2018
Bangladesh may see its first transgender members of parliament following next month’s election for 50 seats reserved for women.

Taiwan Local – December 2018
Reuters reports: “Taiwan will step up its investigation of pro-Beijing newspapers accused by politicians on the self-ruled island of spreading fake news and surveillance activities that infringe national security, a security official said on Friday.”

Cambodia General – July 2018
Radio Free Asia reports: “Cambodia’s Ministry of the Interior on Wednesday arrested a member of the banned Cambodia National Rescue Party after he posted a Facebook message saying the European Union plans to impose a tariff on Cambodian rice, sources in the country said.”

In good news, two other opposition members had their restrictions on political activity lifted by a royal decree approving their application for restoration of political rights.

Cambodia’s prime minister, Hun Sen, has been in power since 1985. Last year, his party won general elections with no serious challenge because most of the opposition had been banned from political activity.

Malaysia General – May 2018 (Cameron Highlands By-Election – January 26, 2019)
Last year, Mahathir Mohamed led his Pakatan Haratan (Alliance of Hope) party to a surprise victory over the then-incument Barisan Nasional party in parliamentary elections.

On January 26, Cameron Highlands, famous for tea plantations and the mysterious disappearance of American silk merchant Jim Thompson, will hold a by-election after the election court disqualified C Sivarraajh from the Barisan Nasional party, due to misconduct during the election.

Free Malaysia Today, which describes the election as an “acid test for both sides,” notes: “The latest and fifth by-election in Cameron Highlands is very significant as it will be the first time BN has to defend a seat. The constituency was won by BN ever since it was created in 2004. But over the successive elections, the margin of victory secured by BN has been greatly reduced.” PH won the last four by-elections, but they were all in seats that PH had originally won in 2018.

 


Tea plantations in Malaysia’s Cameron Highlands. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Peter Groneman

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