Africa This Week – February 18, 2019

February 18, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore Africa on Mondays. Click the map pins.

Nigeria General - February 23, 2019 (postponed from February 16)

Hours before polls were set to open, Nigeria’s election commission announced that the elections would be delayed a week, to February 23 due to unspecified “challenges.”

BBC: “Nigeria election 2019: Observers urge calm after delay”

CNN: “Nigerian parties condemn last-minute election delay”

CNN: “Former US President Bill Clinton has canceled his trip to Nigeria ahead of Saturday’s general elections, saying the visit could be ‘politicized.’”

Jamie Hitchen, Jonathan Fisher, Nic Cheeseman and Idayat Hassan in Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog: “Saturday will be Nigeria’s first WhatsApp election. Here’s what we’re learning about ‘fake news.”

John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and current senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations: “Perhaps the most important question of all is whether or not Nigerians see the results as credible. The answer to that must await not only the voting on election day, but also ballot counting and the outcome of the all but inevitable court challenges.”

John Tomaszewski from the International Republican Institute and Chris Fomunyoh from the National Democratic Institute, American NGOs observing the elections, in the Huffington Post: “Saturday’s elections offer Nigerians opportunity to reaffirm democracy — at home and across Africa”

Axios: “The winner will govern a country with massive unfulfilled economic potential and worsening humanitarian and security crises. There are fears a bruising and close-fought election could give way to violence and instability.”

Senegal Presidential - February 24, 2019

RFI: “Back in Senegal, ex-president Wade vows to force election delay”

Voice of America: “Police in eastern Senegal have made two dozen arrests and seized knives and clubs after clashes in the run-up to presidential elections left at least two dead…”

Guinea-Bissau Legislative - March 10, 2019

Campaigning has begun for the long-delayed legislative elections, which are happening in the midst of a political crisis. The UN Security Council, which has been working to make sure that the elections actually do take place, visited the country to meet with various stakeholders amid concerns that tensions could rise. The elections have already been delayed twice.

Comoros Snap Presidential - March 24, 2019

Azali stepped down from the presidency in order to campaign for re-election, with presidential duties being temporarily fulfilled by a minister.

Over the weekend, authorities shut down an opposition protest prompted by the arrest of two radio hosts critical of President Azali Assoumani. The elections happen in the context of a crackdown on the opposition. Seven out of 20 presidential candidates were disqualified by the Supreme Court, and many opposition figures are imprisoned, some for life sentences with hard labor.

Last year, Azali won a controversial referendum that eliminated the power-sharing system between Comoros’ three islands. Historically, the presidency rotated among the islands, and presidents were confined to one five-year term. However, the referendum allows Azali to stand for two more terms, possibly remaining in power until 2029. That is, unless there is a coup. The country has seen at least 21 coup attempts (including some successful coups) since 1975, when it gained independence from France.

South Africa General - May 8, 2019

Financial Times: “Ramaphosa struggles to shine a light on South African graft”

Madagascar Legislative - May 27, 2019 (overdue)

University College, London professor Brian Klaas in Foreign Policy: “Labeling Elections ‘Good Enough’ Lets African Leaders Get Away With Fraud”

Chad Legislative - due 2019

Marielle Debos in African Arguments: “France is in Chad to support the ‘war on terror,’ yet the its most recent targets have all been political rebels.”

The Economist: “France is propping up a strongman in Chad: Emmanuel Macron sees Idriss Déby as a bulwark against jihadists

Sudan Presidential - due 2020 (could happen earlier due to ongoing protests)

Voice of America: “Sudan: Fruit Vendor Dies After Tear Gas Fired at Protesters”

Al Jazeera: “Sudan’s women expose ‘injustice’ on Facebook: They’re unmasking violent behaviour of Sudan’s security forces on the women-only Facebook group ‘Minbar Chat’.”

Anakwa Dwamena in the New Yorker: “The Historical Precedents of the Current Uprising in Sudan”

Congo General - December 31, 2018

AFP: “The runner-up in DR Congo’s controversial presidential election has proposed staging the poll again within six months. In a letter to the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Martin Fayulu restated his allegation that the vote result had been rigged, and suggested ‘holding the elections again within six months.’”

Fayulu held a rally in Butembo, a town in North Kivu excluded from the presidential vote officially due to an ebola outbreak. Butembo and two other towns will elect members of Parliament on March 31.

Cameroon Presidential - October 7, 2018

Voice of America: “Cameroon’s President Paul Biya Wednesday celebrated his 86th birthday with supporters organizing lavish parties and opponents calling on him to resign. Biya is the oldest president in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the longest-serving, but critics say his long rule has put the country in a bad position.”

Cameroon’s October presidential elections were widely condemned as neither free nor fair, but Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer and Jefcoate O’Donnell noted at the time, “[Of] all the world’s autocrats who pretend to be democrats, Paul Biya is one of the most accomplished. “

France24: “Cameroon’s main opposition leader, Maurice Kamto, has been charged by a military court with rebellion, insurrection and ‘hostility to the homeland,’ one of his lawyers said Wednesday. Kamto, who says he was cheated out of the presidency in last October’s elections, could theoretically face the death penalty.”

The international community, including the governments of the United States and France, condemned the charges.


Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis, which has already displaced over half a million people since 2017, is worsening. Last week, a hospital fire caused by an arson attack left four people dead.

The crisis began when English speakers who comprise 20 percent of the population, called for recognition of the English legal and education systems in Anglophone areas. The resulting crackdown by the Biya regime sparked the formation of various militias who are waging an insurgency with the stated goal of seceding and forming an independent Republic of Ambazonia. Cameroon’s legislative elections are due later this year.

Upcoming Elections
Nigeria General – February 23, 2019 (postponed from February 16)
Hours before polls were set to open, Nigeria’s election commission announced that the elections would be delayed a week, to February 23, due to unspecified “challenges.”

BBC: “Nigeria election 2019: Observers urge calm after delay”

CNN: “Nigerian parties condemn last-minute election delay”

CNN: “Former US President Bill Clinton has canceled his trip to Nigeria ahead of Saturday’s general elections, saying the visit could be ‘politicized.’”

Jamie Hitchen, Jonathan Fisher, Nic Cheeseman and Idayat Hassan in Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog: “Saturday will be Nigeria’s first WhatsApp election. Here’s what we’re learning about ‘fake news.”

John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria and current senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations: “Perhaps the most important question of all is whether or not Nigerians see the results as credible. The answer to that must await not only the voting on election day, but also ballot counting and the outcome of the all but inevitable court challenges.”

John Tomaszewski from the International Republican Institute and Chris Fomunyoh from the National Democratic Institute, American NGOs observing the elections, in the Huffington Post: “Saturday’s elections offer Nigerians opportunity to reaffirm democracy — at home and across Africa”

Axios: “The winner will govern a country with massive unfulfilled economic potential and worsening humanitarian and security crises. There are fears a bruising and close-fought election could give way to violence and instability.”

Senegal Presidential – February 24, 2019
RFI: “Back in Senegal, ex-president Wade vows to force election delay”

Voice of America: “Police in eastern Senegal have made two dozen arrests and seized knives and clubs after clashes in the run-up to presidential elections left at least two dead…”

Guinea-Bissau Legislative – March 10, 2019
Campaigning has begun for the long-delayed legislative elections, which are happening in the midst of a political crisis. The UN Security Council, which has been working to make sure that the elections actually do take place, visited the country to meet with various stakeholders amid concerns that tensions could rise. The elections have already been delayed twice.

Comoros Snap Presidential – March 24, 2019
Over the weekend, authorities shut down an opposition protest prompted by the arrest of two radio hosts critical of President Azali Assoumani. The elections happen in the context of a crackdown on the opposition. Seven out of 20 presidential candidates were disqualified by the Supreme Court, and many opposition figures are imprisoned, some for life sentences with hard labor.

Azali stepped down from the presidency in order to campaign for re-election, with presidential duties being temporarily fulfilled by a minister.

Last year, Azali won a controversial referendum that eliminated the power-sharing system between Comoros’ three islands. Historically, the presidency rotated among the islands, and presidents were confined to one five-year term. However, the referendum allows Azali to stand for two more terms, possibly remaining in power until 2029. That is, unless there is a coup. The country has seen at least 21 coup attempts (including some successful coups) since 1975, when it gained independence from France.

South Africa General – May 8, 2019
Financial Times: “Ramaphosa struggles to shine a light on South African graft”

Madagascar Legislative – May 27, 2019 (overdue)
University College, London professor Brian Klaas in Foreign Policy: “Labeling Elections ‘Good Enough’ Lets African Leaders Get Away With Fraud”

Chad Legislative – due 2019
Marielle Debos in African Arguments: “France is in Chad to support the ‘war on terror,’ yet the its most recent targets have all been political rebels.”

The Economist: “France is propping up a strongman in Chad: Emmanuel Macron sees Idriss Déby as a bulwark against jihadists

Sudan Presidential – due 2020 (could happen earlier due to ongoing protests)
Voice of America: “Sudan: Fruit Vendor Dies After Tear Gas Fired at Protesters”

Al Jazeera: “Sudan’s women expose ‘injustice’ on Facebook: They’re unmasking violent behaviour of Sudan’s security forces on the women-only Facebook group ‘Minbar Chat’.”

Anakwa Dwamena in the New Yorker: “The Historical Precedents of the Current Uprising in Sudan”

Past Elections
Congo General – December 31, 2018
AFP: “The runner-up in DR Congo’s controversial presidential election has proposed staging the poll again within six months. In a letter to the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Martin Fayulu restated his allegation that the vote result had been rigged, and suggested ‘holding the elections again within six months.’”


Fayulu held a rally in Butembo, a town in North Kivu excluded from the presidential vote officially due to an ebola outbreak. Butembo and two other towns will elect members of Parliament on March 31.

Cameroon Presidential – October 7, 2018
Voice of America: “Cameroon’s President Paul Biya Wednesday celebrated his 86th birthday with supporters organizing lavish parties and opponents calling on him to resign. Biya is the oldest president in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the longest-serving, but critics say his long rule has put the country in a bad position.”

Cameroon’s October presidential elections were widely condemned as neither free nor fair, but Foreign Policy’s Robbie Gramer and Jefcoate O’Donnell noted at the time, “[Of] all the world’s autocrats who pretend to be democrats, Paul Biya is one of the most accomplished. “

France24: “Cameroon’s main opposition leader, Maurice Kamto, has been charged by a military court with rebellion, insurrection and ‘hostility to the homeland,’ one of his lawyers said Wednesday. Kamto, who says he was cheated out of the presidency in last October’s elections, could theoretically face the death penalty.”

The international community, including the governments of the United States and France, condemned the charges.

Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis, which has already displaced over half a million people since 2017, is worsening. Last week, a hospital fire caused by an arson attack left four people dead.

The crisis began when English speakers who comprise 20 percent of the population, called for recognition of the English legal and education systems in Anglophone areas. The resulting crackdown by the Biya regime sparked the formation of various militias who are waging an insurgency with the stated goal of seceding and forming an independent Republic of Ambazonia. Cameroon’s legislative elections are due later this year.

On deck: Nigeria general (February 16); Senegal presidential (February 24); Nigeria Rivers state gubernatorial and state legislature (March 2); Guinea legislative (overdue – mandates of current legislators expired January 13 – date not set for new elections – some arguing for April 4); Guinea-Bissau legislative (delayed to March 10 – further delays possible); Comoros, snap presidential and regional (March 24); Guinea-Bissau presidential (scheduled for April – delays possible); Mali legislative (scheduled for April – tentative); Mauritania legislative (scheduled for May – tentative); South Africa legislative and provincial (May 5); Malawi tripartite – presidential, legislative, local (May 21); Madagascar parliamentary (May 27);  Botswana parliamentary (October); Mozambique presidential, legislative, provincial (October 15); Namibia presidential and legislative (November); Somalia, Somaliland congressional and local (November 1, 2019 – tentative); Mauritius legislative (December or January)

 

Voting in Abuja during Nigeria’s 2015 elections. Photo credit: U.S. Embassy/Idika Onyukwu

21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. Election dates can change – please let us know if a date has changed.

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