Americas

November 16, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Gate of the Sun in Tiahuanaco, Bolivia. It was built by the Tiwanaku culture. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Mhwater (public domain)

Upcoming Americas Elections

Uruguay Presidential Runoff: November 24, 2024

Khalea Robertson, AS/COA (November 15, 2024): Poll Tracker: Uruguay’s 2024 Presidential Runoff

Bolivia Presidential and Legislative Elections: August 17, 2025

Amalendu Misra, The Conversation (November 11, 2024): Bolivia slides towards anarchy as two bitter rivals prepare for showdown 2025 election

Haiti General Elections: Postponed indefinitely

The Economist (November 11, 2024): Haiti has lost its prime minister. Gangs aren’t going anywhere

Evens Sanon, AP (November 10, 2024): Haiti replaces its prime minister, marking more turmoil in its democratic transition process

Jamie Whitehead, BBC (November 10, 2024): Haiti’s prime minister ousted after six months

Past Americas Elections

Chile Local Elections: October 27, 2024

Maximiliano Véjares, Global Americans (November 12, 2024): Traditional Parties Stage Comeback in Chilean Local Elections

Venezuela Presidential Election: July 28, 2024

Abel Alvarado and Veronica Calderon, CNN (November 16, 2024): Venezuela frees dozens of prisoners arrested after Maduro’s election victory

Elections On Deck

Asia

November 15, 2024

A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Avukana Buddha statue, widely believed to date from the 5th century, in northern Sri Lanka. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Carlos Delgado (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections

India, State Legislative Assembly Elections in Jharkhand: November 13 and 20, 2024 and Maharashtra: November 20, 2024 (following elections in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana in October)

Menaka Doshi, Bloomberg (November 14, 2024): Maharashtra’s Election Winner Faces Storm Clouds

Bangladesh Snap Elections: Forthcoming

The Economist (November 13, 2024): After the revolution, Bangladesh is stable. For the moment

Tasmiah Ahmed and Darko Janjevic, DW (November 12, 2024): Bangladesh: How inclusive is the democratic restart?

Al Arabaya (November 10, 2024): Bangladeshi ousted-party protesters arrested with Trump signs

AP (November 8, 2024 – video): Thousands rally in Bangladesh capital as major political party demands quick reforms and an election

Past Asia/Pacific Elections

Sri Lanka Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 14, 2024

Sri Lanka held its first presidential election since the 2022 financial crisis on September 21. Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake won, defeating a number of establishment political figures. He then called snap parliamentary elections, in a bid to consolidate his power. Sri Lanka remains a key site of geopolitical competition, with China constantly seeking to expand its influence and India continuing to play a role.  

Krishan Francis and Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP (November 15, 2024): Party of Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning president wins two-thirds majority in parliament

Palau Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 5, 2024

Camilla Pohle, U.S. Institute of Peace (November 14, 2024): What to Know About Palau’s Election: Taiwan, China and Other Key Issues

Reuters (November 13, 2024): Palau president wins second term, will seek to diversify tiny Taiwan ally’s economy

William Yang, Voice of America (November 11, 2024): Palau’s president secures 2nd term amid attempt to navigate US-China competition

Japan Snap Parliamentary Elections: October 27, 2024

In August 2024, Japan’s then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he was stepping down in the wake of a slush fund scandal in the governing Liberal Democratic Party. The party helped a leadership election on September 27, which former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba won. Following the election, Ishiba called a snap election for October 27, a move that had been widely expected. 

Riley Walters and Iku Tsujihiro, Hudson Institute (November 13, 2024): Japan Election Brief: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba Forms Second Administration

Mari Yamaguchi, AP (November 11, 2024): Japan’s reelected Prime Minister Ishiba vows to step up reform

DW (November 11, 2024): Japan: PM Ishiba chosen for new term, despite lost majority

Elections On Deck

Eurasia

November 14, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

A road in Kyrgyzstan. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Thomas Depenbusch (Depi) (CC BY 2.0)

Upcoming Eurasia Elections

Kyrgyzstan Local Elections: November 17, 2024

Reuters (November 13, 2024): Kyrgyzstan makes arrests over suspected coup attempt ahead of local elections

Belarus Presidential Election: January 26, 2025

Aleksandr Lukashenko has been president of Belarus since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The country last held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that its candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces. 

In 2022, Lukashenko held a constitutional referendum on February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The changes allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035 and scrap Belarus’s non-nuclear status.

Csongor Körömi, Politico (November 14, 2024): Being president is a man’s job, roars Belarusian dictator

Yuras Karmanau, AP (November 12, 2024): Imprisoned Belarus activist resurfaces after no contact with her family for 20 months

TVP World (November 7, 2024): Lukashenko steps up repression ahead of Belarus election, says rights group

Past Eurasia Elections

Moldova Presidential Runoff: November 3, 2024

Moldova held a presidential election and referendum on joining the European Union on October 20. Voters narrowly chose to pursue EU membership. Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-west president, came in first in the presidential election but did not win a majority. She subsequently defeated Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general who is backed by the pro-Russia faction, in the runoff on November 3. 

IWPR (November 14, 2024): Lessons Learned from Moldova’s Elections

OC Media (November 13, 2024): Moldova summons Georgian representative over PM’s criticism of elections

Al Jazeera (November 12, 2024): Moldova formally protests alleged Russian election meddling

Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (November 8, 2024): Moldova Hails Win over Russian Interference, But Bigger Battle Lies Ahead

Leonid Martynyuk, Voice of America (November 7, 2024): Facing interference accusations, Russia falsely declares Moldovan elections ‘undemocratic’

Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 26, 2024

Emil Avdaliani, Carnegie Endowment (November 13, 2024): Relations Between Georgia and the West to Become Transactional

AP (November 12, 2024): Thousands rally in Georgia to demand new election and push for EU integration

Nicholas Chkhaidze, Atlantic Council (November 12, 2024): Russia emerges as the real winner of Georgia’s disputed election

Gabriel Gavin, Politico (November 11, 2024): Georgian government blasts European delegation amid call for election investigation

Joshua Kucera, RFE/RL (November 7, 2024): Georgia’s Opposition Criticized For Sluggish Reaction To Flawed Election

Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: October 27, 2024

Under Islam Karimov, who ruled Uzbekistan from independence until his death in 2016, Uzbekistan was a brutal dictatorship. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has branded himself as a reformer. However, Freedom House notes: “While reforms adopted since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016 have led to improvements on some issues, Uzbekistan remains an authoritarian state with few signs of democratization. No opposition parties operate legally.”

Fitch Solutions (November 11, 2024): Uzbekistan’s Economic Policies Steady, But Governance Risks Rising Post-Election

Elections On Deck

Europe

November 13, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Deutsches Eck promontory in Koblenz, Germany, at the confluence of the Mosel and Rhine. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Holger Weinandt (CC BY-SA 3.0 de) 

Upcoming Europe Elections

Romania Presidential Election: November 24, 2024 and Legislative Elections: December 1, 2024

Romania holds presidential and legislative elections later this year. 

Una Hajdari at Politico notes: “The electoral outcome may keep Romania on its mostly pro-European, centrist path — or tip it toward more nativist policies that would sound alarm bells in Brussels because of the country’s strategic proximity to Ukraine and its role as a key southeast European economy.”

Corrine Deloy, Foundation Robert Schuman (November 12, 2024): The ruling Social Democrats are favourites in Romania’s parliamentary and presidential elections

Iulian Ernst, Romania Today (November 12, 2024): Romanian PM denies rumours about Russia’s attempts to influence internal elections

Ireland Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 29, 2024

Megan Specia, New York Times (November 8, 2024): What to Know About Ireland’s Snap General Election

BBC (November 8, 2024): Irish general election to be held on 29 November

Germany Snap Federal Parliamentary Elections: February 23, 2024

Germany called snap elections following the collapse of the government. These elections come on the heels of three state elections in the east that delivered blows to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning coalition government. The far-right AfD won in Thuringia and came in a close second in Saxony. While Scholz’s SPD pulled off a surprise win in Brandenburg, AfD made large gains there as well. In addition, a new pro-Putin, anti-establishment left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), won large percentages of the vote. 

Notably, Die Linke (The Left), which formed from remnants of the Communist Party in the east, saw a major collapse in the recent state elections. 

AP (November 13, 2024): Five things to know about Germany’s government crisis

Sebastian Shukla, Claudia Otto and Inke Kappeler, CNN (November 12, 2024): Germany set for snap election in February

James Angelos and Nette Nöstlinger, Politico (November 12, 2024): Germany’s snap election: What happens now?

Past Europe Elections

Bulgaria Snap Elections: October 27, 2024

Bulgaria held snap elections on October 27, the seventh elections in three years. The center-right GERB, led by former prime minister Boyko Borisov, came in first but fell short of a majority. GERB has won five of the seven recent elections but has not been able to form a durable government since 2021 (Borisov was previously prime minister three times, for a total of nine years, between 2009 and 2021). 

GERB is pro-European while the other major party, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), has worked with overly pro-Russia parties in past coalitions. 

Krassen Nikolov, Euractiv (November 12, 2024): Borissov says he wants to be PM and pitches good ties with Trump

Norbert Beckmann-Dierkes and Borislaw Wankow, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (November 10, 2024 – in German): GERB wins early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria once again

Lithuania Parliamentary Elections: October 13 and 27, 2024

Lithuania’s Social Democrats won the recent parliamentary elections, defeating the center-right government of Ingrida Šimonytė. Lithuania’s pro-west foreign policy is unlikely to change. 

Jurgis Valiukevičius, Jacobin (November 12, 2024): Lithuania’s Social Democrats Set Unsteady Course for Change

Andrius Sytas, Reuters (November 8, 2024): Lithuania election winner includes populist party in coalition talks

Andrew Higgins, New York Times (November 8, 2024): Party Whose Leader Is Known for Antisemitism to Join Lithuanian Government

Greece Parliamentary Elections: June 25, 2023

Nektaria Stamouli, Politico (November 9, 2024): Greece’s main opposition further dismantled

Elections On Deck

Middle East

November 12, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Al Khor Harbor in Al Khor, Qatar. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Vincent van Zeijst (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Past Middle East Elections

Qatar Referendum on Ending Elections: November 5, 2024

Ohad Merlin, Jerusalem Post (November 5, 2024): Qatar to vote on cancelling elections ‘in name of democracy and social cohesion’

Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 20, 2024

Dana Taib Meny, The New Arab (November 11, 2024): Power-sharing negotiations in Iraqi Kurdistan expected to extend until late 2025

Kurdistan24 (November 11, 2024): IHEC reviews final appeals on Kurdistan Region Parliament election results

Elections On Deck

Africa

November 11, 2024

A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.

The Hargeisa War Memorial in Hargeisa, capital of Somaliland, commemorating the 1988 war of independence, as it was in 2012. Photo credit: Wikimedia/joepyrek (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Upcoming Africa Elections

Somaliland Presidential Election: November 13, 2024

Voice of America (November 11, 2024): Somaliland prepares for presidential polls amid regional tension

Simon Valmary, AFP (November 10, 2024): A Riot Of Colour: Somaliland’s Chameleon Election Campaign

Senegal Snap Legislative Elections: November 17, 2024

For a long time, Senegal was considered a stable democracy, but backsliding and protests riled the tenure of former president Macky Sall, who served until this year and was not eligible to run for a third term. Sall’s chosen successor, Amadou Ba, lost to leftist opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye in this year’s presidential election, which took place in March. Faye is now holding legislative elections to consolidate his hold on power.

A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production, upping the geopolitical and international economic stakes of Senegal’s politics.

Alice Chancellor, Barrons (November 11, 2024): Senegal Grapples With Floods, Economy Ahead Of Parliamentary Elections

Wahany Johnson Sambou, Africanews (November 11, 2024): Campaigning heats up in Senegal ahead of snap legislative elections

Tanzania Local Elections: November 27, 2024

Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, CCM’s John Magufuli won the presidency, and subsequently launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector.

Following Magufuli’s death in 2021, the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, made some moves to open up the political space. She lifted a ban on opposition rallies and secured the release of Freedman Mbowe, leader of the main opposition Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema). However, since then, the government has engaged in repression and arbitrary arrests and assaults of opposition leaders. 

Khalifa Said, The Chanzo (November 9, 2024): Tanzania: Hopes for Free and Fair Elections Dwindle As President Samia’s Promised Reforms Hit a Snag

Ghana Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 7, 2024

Ghana is often cited as a success story for democratic transition. The two main political parties, the center-right New Patriotic Party (NPP) and center-left National Democratic Congress (NDC), have alternated stints in power since Ghana began holding multiparty elections. Moreover, although each party has bases of support in certain regions or ethnic groups, the parties define themselves by ideology and campaign on issues.

However, concerns have recently emerged about creeping authoritarianism and the risk of violent extremism and destabilization. 

Maxwell Akalaare Adombila, Reuters (November 11, 2024): Main Ghana opposition leader tipped to win presidential vote, poll shows

Damian Zane, BBC (November 11, 2024): Gold, prices, and jobs: What’s at stake in Ghana’s elections?

Ken Mensah, The Africa Report (November 11, 2024): Ghana elections: What are the five key issues?

AFP (November 8, 2024): Ghana parliament adjourned indefinitely again, as government MPs boycott

Wycliffe Muia, BBC (November 7, 2024): Uproar in Ghana after president unveils his own statue

Cameroon General Elections: Due in 2025, delayed to 2026

Ngala Killian Chimtom, Crux (November 5, 2024): Cameroon archbishop urges ageing leaders to step aside for a new generation

South Sudan General Elections: December 22, 2026 (delayed yet again, this time from December 2024)

Binto Bali, International IDEA (November 11, 2024): South Sudan’s Electoral Dilemma: What Lies Ahead?

Steven C. Roach, The Conversation (November 8, 2024): Salva Kiir: South Sudan’s president fought for independence, but then fuelled division, violence and corruption

UN News (November 7, 2024): South Sudan: Postponing long-awaited elections ‘a regrettable development’

Equatorial Guinea General Elections: 2029 (due)

Ines Silva and Damian Zane, BBC (November 10, 2024): Massive sex tape leak could be a ploy for power in central Africa

Past Africa Elections

Mauritius Parliamentary Elections: November 10, 2024

Mauritius announced its general elections right after Britain announce that it would cede the Chagos Islands, a strategic archipelago in the Indian Ocean that houses the Diego Garcia air base, to Mauritius. Diego Garcia is a key base for both the United Kingdom and the United States. Mauritius has close ties with China, including a free trade agreement inked in 2021. 

Danai Nesta Kupemba and Yasine Mohabuth, BBC (November 11, 2024): Mauritius prime minister accepts ‘huge defeat’ in election

Shola Lawal, Al Jazeera (November 10, 2024): Mauritius election 2024: Amid wiretapping scandal, what’s at stake?

Mozambique Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 9, 2024

Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.

Emilia Columbo, World Politics Review (November 8, 2024): Mozambique’s Post-Election Protests Signal a New Political Landscape

Reuters (November 8, 2024): Three killed, 66 injured in Mozambique opposition protest, hospital says

Martina Schwikowski, DW (November 7, 2024): Mozambique government faces protests over election result

Gerald Imray, AP (November 7, 2024): Why Mozambique’s election has sparked weeks of protests and a violent crackdown by police

Mogomotsi Magome, AP (November 7, 2024): South Africa closes its border again with Mozambique, where post-election violence worsens

Paula Cristina Roque, African Arguments (November 7, 2024): Mozambique: A revolution born in the search for electoral justice

Botswana Presidential, Legislative and Local Elections: October 30, 2024

Botswana is considered to be a strong democracy, rated Free by Freedom House, but the  Botswana Democratic Party has been in power since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. Mokgweetsi Masisi, the incumbent president, was widely considered to be the frontrunner, but in an upset, opposition leader Duma Boko from the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won the presidency.

Botswana is currently facing economic challenges related to the global decrease in demand for diamonds, a major export.

Al Jazeera (November 8, 2024): Botswana swears in Duma Boko as new president

Sello Motseta, AP (November 8, 2024): Thousands turn out for inauguration of Botswana’s new president, who calls for unity

David Sebudubudu, The Conversation (November 6, 2024): Botswana’s new president: who is Duma Boko and what does he stand for?

Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy (November 6, 2024): Young Voters Oust Botswana’s Ruling Party

Jonathan Moakes, Daily Maverick (November 6, 2024): Botswana was a real change election and a textbook case for politicians across Africa

Regional Analysis

Nic Cheeseman, Mail&Guardian (November 11, 2024): The beginning of the end of the liberation party era

Elections On Deck