January 20, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Cable car in Wellington, New Zealand. New Zealand has scheduled general elections for October 14, 2023 and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern plans to resign soon. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Clilly4 (CC0 1.0)
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023 and in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023 (followed by more state elections later this year and parliamentary elections next year)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Andy Mukherjee, Bloomberg (January 20, 2023): Modi Can Shrug Off Gandhi’s Populist Challenge, For Now
Darn Singh, India Today (January 18, 2023): 400 days for Lok Sabha polls: Why 2024 will be historic in many ways
Nidhi Razdan, Gulf News (January 18, 2023): Narendra Modi’s BJP clicks into gear for the 2024 Indian national elections: India’s ruling party launches campaign to win third consecutive poll and create history
India Today (January 18, 2023): Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura elections: What’s at stake in three northeastern states
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Sri Lanka plans to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. The protests led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.
Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.
The local elections could be delayed to to a lack of funds to administer them.
Voice of America (January 20, 2023): India Facilitates IMF Bailout for Crisis Stricken Sri Lanka
Zulfick Farzan, News1st Sri Lanka (January 18, 2023): Local Government Election will be held on time, Election Comm. gives assurance to Supreme Court
Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP (January 17, 2023): Sri Lanka urged to free student activist held over protests
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. The May elections are likely to pit Prayuth against the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has announced her intention to run for prime minster this year.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. As Reuter notes: “Administrations loyal to Shinawatras have each been removed by the military or judicial rulings, adding fuel to a seemingly intractable political crisis that has ebbed and flowed in Thailand for over 17 years.”
Reuters (January 16, 2023): Daughter of Thailand’s exiled former PM Thaksin to seek premiership
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
The 2021 elections to the Legislative Council took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
Radio Free Asia (January 16, 2023): China appoints hard-line security chief to be its representative in Hong Kong: Move comes amid an ongoing war of words between Beijing and London over the city’s promised freedoms
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
William Echols, Polygraph.INFO (January 20, 2023): Ahead of an Epochal Election, Cambodia Turns Courts Against Opposition
Radio Free Asia (January 20, 2023): Hun Sen threatens opposition, seeking to divide party ahead of July elections
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Khin Soe Win, Voice of America (January 20, 2023): Q&A: US Sees No Chance of Fair Election Under Myanmar Junta
East Asia Forum (January 20, 2023): The revolutionary whirlwind widens in Myanmar
The Irrawaddy (January 18, 2023): Myanmar Junta Leaked Memo Shows Resistance Growing Beyond Control
The Irrawaddy (January 16, 2023): Over 60 Myanmar Junta Forces Killed in Three Days of Resistance Attacks
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) will hold a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih faces off against former president Mohamed Nasheed. Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Avas (January 15, 2023): Maldives Presidential Election to be held on Sept 9
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Henry Olsen, Washington Post (January 20, 2023): Jacinda Ardern is right to leave office — before voters force her out
Daniel Gilhooly, AFP (January 20, 2023): Chris Hipkins to be New Zealand PM
Jessie Yeung and Hilary Whiteman, CNN, (January 19, 2023): New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern announces shock resignation before upcoming election
AP (January 18, 2023): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called New Zealand’s next general elections for Oct. 14
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
The Diplomat (January 21, 2023): As US, China Fight Over Bangladesh, India Is the Real Winner
New Age Bangladesh (January 18, 2023): EU to send election observers for JS polls in Bangladesh
Porimol Palma, The Daily Star (January 17, 2023): Washington wants Dhaka to play key role in Indo-Pacific region
Md. Kamruzzaman, Anadolu Agency (January 17, 2023): Bangladesh’s main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls: Without neutral caretaker government, no fair elections have been held in country’s history, analyst says
Wajahat S. Khan, GZERO (January 16, 2023): In Bangladesh, a powerful premiership is transforming into a brutal dictatorship
Taiwan Presidential Election: Early 2024 (due)
Taiwan’s presidential election is due next year. The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
The Diplomat (January 21, 2023): The International Effect of Taiwan’s Local Elections: Taiwan’s local officials can, and often do, set their own course with regards to China and other countries.
Cindy Wang and Samson Ellis, Bloomberg (January 19, 2023): Taiwan Premier Resigns Leaving Tsai With Key Cabinet Decision
Yu Nakamura, Nikkei Asia (January 16, 2023): Taiwan’s ruling party elects VP as new leader to spearhead revival: Lai to take the reins as questions swirl over his pro-independence stance
Reuters (January 15, 2023): Taiwan VP new ruling party boss sets stage for presidential run
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Fiji General Elections: December 14, 2022
Fiji’s December 2022 elections toppled the government of former coup leader Frank Bainimarama by Sitiveni Rabuka, who himself also previously led a coup (Fiji has had four coups since the 1980s).
On the campaign trail, Rabuka ruled out a security pact with China and advocated for a return to closer relations with Australia.
Radio New Zealand (January 20, 2023): Fiji’s election chief suspended following complaint
Shailendra Bahadur Singh, Lowy Institute (January 17, 2023): Fiji’s new politics: After a first smooth change of power, forging consensus in a nation renowned for ethnic tension poses a continued test.
Lewis Jackson and Kristy Needham, Reuters (January 17, 2023): Fiji military warns govt against ‘sweeping changes’ after tight election
Vietnam Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): April 5, 2021
AFP notes: “[President Nguyen Xuan Phuc]’s sudden departure is a highly unusual move in communist Vietnam, where political changes are normally carefully orchestrated with an emphasis on cautious stability.”
Bloomberg (January 18, 2023): The Key Contenders to Replace Vietnam’s Ousted President
AFP (January 17, 2023): Vietnam president resigns amid major anti-graft purge
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Nepal Presidential Election (by Parliament): February 11, 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023
India, State Elections in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 2023 (due)
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 7, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Bhutan National Assembly Elections: March 2023 (due)
Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: March 2023 (due)
Japan Unified Local Elections: April 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Europe
January 25, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Controversial former prime minister Andrej Babiš will face off against retired general Petr Pavel in the Czech Republic’s presidential runoff later this month. Incumbent Milos Zeman, who has been in power for 10 years and did not run for re-election, built closer ties with Russia and China.
Pavel, a former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, favors pro-West policies, while populist Babiš has criticized support for Ukraine and the EU more generally.
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Petr Pavel: who is the ex-army chief leading Czech presidential election race?
Peter Laca and Krystof Chamonikolas, Bloomberg (January 22, 2023): Ex-NATO General Leads Polls Before Czech Presidential Run-Off
NK News (January 20, 2023): How the Czech Republic positions itself between hawks and doves on North Korea: Prague both condemns the DPRK’s nukes and embraces cultural exchanges, setting itself up for engagement with Pyongyang
Reuters (January 19, 2023): Czech government survives no-confidence vote
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Henri Vanhanen, Lawfare (January 25, 2023): Finland in 2023: Beyond Military Nonalignment and a Revanchist Putin
Jari Tanner and Karl Ritter, AP (January 24, 2023): Finland’s top diplomat hints at joining NATO without Sweden
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Reuters (January 24, 2023): Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2
Greece Parliamentary Elections: By July 2023
AP (January 25, 2023): Greek government faces no confidence vote over wiretaps
Thanos Davelis and Tom Ellis, Kathimerini (January 24, 2023 – podcast): The message from Davos: Greece is back
Elena Becatoros, AP (January 19, 2023): Greek PM Mitsotakis: ‘We will not go to war with Turkey’
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Reuters (January 25, 2023): Slovak parliament opens way to September early election
Reuters (January 22, 2023): Slovakia’s former coalition heads agree to early parliamentary elections
AP (January 21, 2023): Slovakia holds referendum to enable snap election
Hungary Today (January 19, 2023): Slovak Minister Warns Against a “Hungarian System”
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
AFP (January 21, 2023): Thousands protest against Spanish govt in Madrid
Past Europe Elections
Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 2, 2022
Bosnia now has a government following October 2022 elections. For the first time in over a decade, SDA, the main Bosniak party, will not be part of the government.
The government was formed very quickly by Bosnian standards – typically, it takes more than a year, but this time, only three months. The new prime minister will be ethnic Croat Borjana Kristo.
Denitsa Koseva at bne IntelliNews notes: “When Kristo was nominated in December, she said she would lead the government towards restarting the process of integration in the EU. Since then, in mid-December, Bosnia was granted EU candidate status after years of waiting.”
AP (January 25, 2023): New Bosnian government approved 3 months after elections
RFE/RL (January 25, 2023): New Bosnian Governing Council Under Croat Kristo Approved By Lawmakers
Denitsa Koseva, bne IntelliNews (January 25, 2023): Bosnia appoints new pro-EU government
Sweden Parliamentary and Local Elections: September 11, 2022
Sweden’s 2022 elections brought in a center-right coalition government led by the Moderate Party, with a confidence and supply agreement with the populist Sweden Democrats.
Niclas Rolander and Ott Ummelas, Bloomberg (January 25, 2023): Why Turkey Is Still Blocking Sweden’s NATO Accession
Guney Yildiz, Forbes (January 24, 2023): Turkiye’s Blocking Sweden’s NATO Accession Have Nothing To Do With The Quran Desecration In Stockholm
United Kingdom Local Elections, including Northern Ireland Assembly: May 5, 2022
The United Kingdom held local elections for some local councils, as well as the Northern Ireland Assembly, on May 5.
Northern Ireland’s nationalist Sinn Féin became the biggest party in the Assembly following these elections. However, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has been boycotting the assembly, and as a result, Northern Ireland has not had a government for nearly a year.
As a result, snap elections are required and could be called.
Aoife Moore, Times of London (January 22, 2023): Americans added $1m to Sinn Fein coffers in one year
Euronews with AFP (January 20, 2023): Clock ticking on Northern Ireland elections after Stormont stalement deadline passes
Matthew Weaver and Lisa O’Carroll, The Guardian (January 20, 2023): Leo Varadkar admits regrets over Northern Ireland protocol: Ireland’s taoiseach regrets Brexit arrangement imposed without agreement of unionists and nationalists
Regional Analysis
Laura Clancy, Sarah Austin, and Jordan Lippert, Pew Research Center (January 25, 2023): Many countries in Europe get a new government at least every two years
Cain Burdeau, Courthouse News Service (January 25, 2023): Europe’s got a big, creepy spyware problem – and it’s going unchecked
Europe Elections Coming Up in 2023
Several European countries hold elections that determine who runs the government: Cyprus (fun fact: Cyprus is the EU’s only full presidential system), Monaco, Estonia, Andorra, Finland, Greece, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, and Spain.
In addition, Montenegro and Slovakia appear on track to hold snap elections. And Bulgaria could hold its fourth general election in three years.
Moreover, a number of other countries in Europe could hold snap elections at short notice – it happens.
Slovakia Referendum on Early Elections: January 21, 2023
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Austria, Lower Austria State Elections: January 29, 2023
Cyprus Presidential Election: February 5, 2023
Monaco Parliamentary Elections: February 5, 2023
Cyprus Presidential Runoff: February 12, 2023
Germany, Berlin State Elections: February 12, 2023
Italy, Lazio and Lombardy Regional Elections: February 12, 2023
Estonia General Elections: March 5, 2023
albniaLithuania Local Elections: March 5, 2023
Liechtenstein Local Elections: March 5, 2023
Austria, Carinthia State Elections: March 5, 2023
Netherlands Provincial Council and Water Authority Elections: March 15, 2023
Montenegro Presidential Election: March 19, 2023 (snap parliamentary elections possible)
Andorra Parliamentary Elections: March 2023 (due)
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Austria, Salzburg State Elections: April 23, 2023
Kosovo Partial Local Elections: April 23, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023
Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023
Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Northern Ireland: May 18, 2023
Spain Local Elections and Various Regional Elections: May 28, 2023
Latvia Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): May 2023 (due)
Greece Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Spain, Regional Elections in Various Regions: June 25, 2023
Luxembourg Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Greece Parliamentary Elections: July 2023 (due)
Norway Local Elections: September 11, 2023
Slovakia Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 30, 2023 (proposed – requires parliament to change constitution to allow)
Switzerland Federal Parliamentary Elections: October 22, 2023
Luxembourg General Elections: October 2023 (due)
Bulgaria Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Germany, Hesse and Bavaria State Elections: October 2023 (due)
Finland, Åland Elections: October 2023 (due)
Portugal, Regional Elections in Madeira: October 2023 (due)
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections (due – earlier elections possible): November 11, 2023
Spain General Elections: December 10, 2023 (due – early elections possible)
Switzerland Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): December 12, 2023
Andorra Local Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Middle East
January 24, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Ongoing Middle East Elections
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): Continuing
Lebanon’s fractious parliament is in the process of selecting a president. As part of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system, the president is always a Maronite Christian (and conversely, a Sunni serves as prime minister and a Shi’ite as speaker of the parliament).
The last parliamentary elections took place in May 2022 in the context of a political and economic crisis exacerbated by the August 2020 explosion in the port of Beirut. In those elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority in parliament, and a number of independents won seats.
The fragmented parliament has not been able to pick a new president, leaving a vacuum following the end of Michel Aoun’s term in October 2022. Aoun was a strong ally of Hezbollah. Michel Moawad, an anti-Hezbollah candidate, has won the most votes on several ballots, but not a majority. Voting will continue until someone can break the stalemate.
BBC (January 20, 2023): Lebanon MPs sit in as 11th vote for president fails
Jamie Prentis, The National UAE (January 18, 2023): What next for Lebanon’s opposition in presidential race, Michel Moawad or Plan B?
Upcoming Middle East Elections
Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 29, 2023
Tunisia began transitioning to democracy in 2011, amid the Arab Spring protests, and in 2019, held the third national elections since the fall of dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Political outsider and populist Kais Saied won the presidency. The results indicated a rejection of the main political parties and post-Ben Ali political ideologies (Islamism and secular liberalism). However, Saied took the country down an authoritarian path and took actions that his opponents said subvert democracy. As a result, protests have been taking place.
Adel Al Thabiti, Anadolu Agency (January 22, 2023): Ennahda leader calls for restoring democracy in Tunisia
AFP (January 21, 2023): Tunisia Detains Critic of President, Says Lawyer
Turkey General Elections: May 14, 2023
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been in power since 2003, and although the party initially ran on a reformist platform, it has become increasingly authoritarian. A 2017 constitutional change, with passed very narrowly in a referendum, replaced the parliamentary system with a presidential system, and gave the presidency new powers.
While Turkey remains a member of NATO, it has in recent years moved closer to Russia and other authoritarian countries.
AP (January 22, 2023): Erdogan: Turkey Elections to Be Held May 14
Stratfor (January 20, 2023): As Elections Near, Turkey Will Still Block Sweden and Finland’s NATO Aspirations
Selcan Hacaoglu, Bloomberg (January 20, 2023): Erdogan Warns Greece to Beware ‘Crazy Turks’ to Fire Up Crowd
Nikhil Kumar, GRID (January 19, 2023): What an Erdogan loss in Turkey’s presidential election would mean for the country and the world
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal (January 18, 2023): Erdogan Targets a Political Rival in Turkey: A prosecutor seeks to dissolve the second largest opposition party.
Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible and increasingly likely)
Following Pakistan’s turbulent 2018 general election, former cricket star Imran Khan – seen as the military’s preferred candidate – became prime minister when his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats. However, Khan was ousted in an April 2022 vote of no confidence and former opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister.
Since then, Khan has sought to force early elections in various ways.
PTI (January 24, 2023): Pakistan govt wary of IMF-mandated ‘tough decisions’ in election year
Michael Kugelman, East Asia Forum (January 21, 2023): Pakistan still treading water in 2023
Arifa Noor, Dawn (January 18, 2023): Opinion: After the dissolution of Punjab assembly, early elections in Pakistan seem near inevitable
Jibran Ahmad, Reuters (January 18, 2023): Ex-PM Khan pushes for early Pakistan election by dissolving second provincial govt
Kamran Haider, Bloomberg (January 18, 2023): Another Imran Khan-Backed Pakistan Province Calls Early Election
Algeria Presidential Election: December 2024 (due)
Mass protests in 2019 ended the 20-year rule of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, but former PM Abdelmadjid Tebboune, who was close to Bouteflika, won the subsequent presidential election. Protesters from the Hirak movement have pushed for greater political reform, but the country’s traditional power centers have largely held.
AFP (January 18, 2023): Algeria frees opposition figure after vow to quit politics
Egypt Elections: 2025 (due)
Nosmot Gbadamosi, Foreign Policy (January 18, 2023): Why China and Egypt Are Growing Closer
Past Middle East Elections
Israel Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 1, 2022
Israel has held five sets of general elections over the past four years. The most recent returned Bibi Netanyahu to power, this time heading the country’s most right-wing government to date.
Gwen Ackerman and Mohammad Tayseer, Bloomberg (January 24, 2023): Netanyahu Meets With Jordan’s King After Tensions Over Holy Site
Yoni Ben Menachem, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (January 23, 2023): What are the Prospects for Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel?
Jonathan Schachter, The Hill (January 18, 2023): Netanyahu’s agenda and Biden’s opportunity
Reuters (January 18, 2023): Analysis: Hamas sees West Bank as battleground with new Israel gov’t
Kuwait Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 29, 2022
Although the monarchy appoints the government, Kuwait has one of the most powerful parliaments in the Gulf.
AP notes: “In September, voters sent conservative Islamist figures and two women to the assembly in the second election in less than two years. The election results were seen as a mandate for change amid a prolonged period of gridlock between the Cabinet and the 50-member assembly.”
AP (January 23, 2023): Kuwait’s government resigns amid struggle with assembly
Iran Presidential Election: June 18, 2021
Daphne Psaledakis and Gabriela Baczynska, Reuters (January 23, 2023): U.S., EU, UK impose new sanctions on Iran over protest crackdown
Jomana Karadsheh, Tamara Qiblawi and Artemis Moshtaghian, CNN (January 23, 2023): Iran’s regime is trying to execute its way out of trouble
Euronews with AFP (January 22, 2023): ‘Signs of cracks’ within Iran’s government as protests endure
Suzanne Kianpour, Politico (January 22, 2023): The Women of Iran Are Not Backing Down
Middle East Elections Coming Up in 2023
Turkey and Pakistan are due to hold elections that determine who runs the government. In addition, long-overdue elections in the Palestinian Authority and Libya could take place in 2023, but don’t hold your breath.
Tunisia Legislative Runoffs: January 29, 2023
Lebanon Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): continues in January 2023
Turkey Presidential and Legislative Elections: May 14, 2023
Lebanon Local Elections: May 31, 2023 (postponed from 2022 – additional delays possible)
Tunisia Local Elections: May 2023 (due)
Kurdistan (Iraq) Presidential and Parliamentary Elections: September 2023 (due – delayed from 2022)
Pakistan General Elections: October 12, 2023 (due – snap elections possible)
Israel Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Oman Consultative Assembly Elections (advisory body with limited power): October 2023 (due)
United Arab Emirates Federal National Council Elections (indirect elections, advisory body with limited powers): October 2023 (due)
Iraq Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Africa
January 23, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Nigeria General Elections: February 25, 2023
Nigeria, the “Giant of Africa,” as Nigerians call the continent’s most populous country, has a history of military coups, and since the return to civilian rule, vote-rigging and violence have plagued elections. While the 2015 polls – which handed the opposition its first-ever victory – were considered credible, international and Nigerian observers found that the 2019 polls fell short, with low turnout, fraud, and violence. The country is in the midst of several security crises.
The presidential front-runners include the nominees of the two biggest parties: Bola Tinuba from the governing “sort of left” All Progressives Congress Party (APC) and Atiku Abubakar from the main opposition “sort of right” People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In addition, Peter Obi from the Labour Party has gathered momentum among younger voters and is seen as a possible contender. Somewhat ironically, his supporters call themselves “Obidients,” despite positioning themselves as an anti-establishment movement.
Nigeria is the second-biggest oil and gas producer in Africa, and also arguably has the biggest economy on the continent.
Ben Ezeamalu, The Africa Report (January 23, 2023): Nigeria 2023: Electoral umpire helpless in political parties’ vote-buying antics
Jideofor Adibe, The Conversation (January 22, 2023): Nigeria’s 2023 presidential election: 10 factors that could affect the outcome
BBC (January 21, 2023): Nigeria elections 2023: The allegations against the presidential contenders
Ope Adetayo, The Guardian (January 19, 2023): ‘Obi understands’: young Nigerians swell support of presidential hopeful
Reuters (January 18, 2023): Nigeria will not postpone presidential vote – election chief
Ope Adetayo, Al Jazeera (January 18, 2023): Attacks on electoral commission spark concerns for Nigeria polls: Experts say the new wave of attacks takes insecurity in Nigeria into uncharted territory ahead of the elections.
AFP (January 17, 2023): Young Nigerians flock to get voting cards for February election: Nearly 10 million new voters have been registered for the February 25 ballot, 84 percent of them people under age 34.
Cameroon Indirect Senate Elections: March 12, 2023 (by local councilors)
Moki Edwin Kindzeka at Voice of America notes: “Separatists in English-speaking western Cameroon launched their rebellion in 2017 after what they said was years of discrimination by the country’s French-speaking majority. The conflict has killed more than 3,500 people and displaced more than a half-million, according to the United Nations.”
Moki Edwin Kindzeka, Voice of America (January 20, 2023): Two Election Officials Killed in NW Cameroon as Separatists Vow to Disrupt Senate Elections
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Zimbabwe is due to hold general elections in July 2023. They will be the second since the 2017 coup that led to the fall of Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, who left a legacy of gross economic mismanagement and political repression. Democracy continues to face many challenges in Zimbabwe, and the current president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, governs in an authoritarian, repressive manner.
Jason Burke and Nyasha Chingono, The Guardian (January 22, 2023): ‘The Crocodile has not changed’: Zimbabwe opposition warns of election violence
CAJnews (January 18, 2023): Crackdown escalates leading to Zimbabwe elections
Robert Lansing Institute (January 17, 2023): Scenarios: Mnangagwa likely to save presidency amid risks of violence in Zimbabwe after elections
Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini, formerly known as Swaziland, is an absolute monarchy. The country does hold parliamentary elections, but the parliament does not actually have much power, and the elections are tightly controlled, without much choice for voters.
Itumeleng Mafisa, IOL (January 23, 2023): Saftu condemns assassination of eSwatini political activist and human rights lawyer
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023
Liberia’s last elections, in 2017, brought the first peaceful transition of power since 1944, but the country still faces some challenges as it seeks to consolidate democracy. President George Weah, a former football player,
Nicholas Norbrook, The Africa Report (January 20, 2023): Liberia’s George Weah: Slipping one into the net
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
The DRC’s last elections, in December 2018, took place after multiple delays and were mired in controversy and dispute. Nonetheless, they did produce the first peaceful transfer of power in the history of the country’s independence, with former opposition leader Félix Tshisekedi being declared the winner of the presidential poll (even though election observers from the highly-trusted Catholic Church said their data indicated a victory for another opposition leader, Martin Fayulu).
The DRC faces numbers political and security crises, exacerbated by conflicts over massive mineral wealth. By some estimates, the country has untapped reserves worth $24 trillion, and with increased interest in electronic vehicles and other technologies that require rare earths, this has become a subject of increased interest internationally.
Due to its size and central location, conflicts from neighboring countries spill over into the DRC. The horrific conflicts happening in the eastern part of the country send shockwaves through the entire region.
Stratfor (January 19, 2023): Congo: Government Expects $6 Billion Overhaul in Mining Deals
Agenzia Fides (January 17, 2023): Eastern DRC: not only jihadists but a complex network of local and foreign interests
Senegal Presidential Election: February 2024 (due)
Long considered a stable democracy, backsliding has been taking place under President Macky Sall, who has been accused of prosecuting his political opponents on politically-motivated charges (Freedom House downgraded the country from Free to Partly Free in 2020).
Consequently, Senegal saw violent protests in March 2021 following rape charges against former opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, and further protests in November 2021. Some are concerned that Sall could attempt to seek an unconstitutional third term
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production. Sall is a former oil executive and thus has focused on beginning production.
Africanews and AFP (January 23, 2023): Senegal opposition leader to face rape trial: lawyers
South Africa General Elections: May 2024 (due)
Mogomotsi Magma and Gerald Imray, AP (January 19, 2023): Russia, China to hold naval drills off South Africa
Past Africa Elections
Tanzania General Elections: October 28, 2020
Dickson Ng’hily, The Citizen (January 22, 2023): Chadema outlines strategy as nationwide rallies start
Regional Analysis
Teresa Nogueira Pinto, GIS Reports (January 23, 2023): Europe’s energy switch may boost African producers: As Europe shuns Russian energy supplies, Africa is poised to increase its oil and natural gas exports to the continent.
African Development Bank (January 19, 2023): Africa’s economic growth to outpace global forecast in 2023-2024 – African Development Bank biannual report
Afrobarometer (January 19, 2023): Africans want more democracy, but their leaders still aren’t listening
ICIR Nigeria (January 18, 2023): Repression and resistance: how a new generation challenges African autocrats and their international allies
Tanya Mehra LL.M and Méryl Demuynck, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (January 17, 2023): Raising the stakes against the Wagner Group: From mercenaries to a designated terrorist group?
Africa Elections Coming Up in 2023
Seven countries in Africa are scheduled to elections that will determine who heads the government: Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gabon, Liberia, Madagascar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In addition, Sudan has talked about holding long-delays general elections in July, but additional delays are possible.
Benin Legislative Elections: January 8, 2023
Djibouti Legislative Elections: February 24, 2023
Nigeria General Elections: February 25, 2023
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Most States: March 11, 2023
Cameroon Indirect Senate Elections (by members of local councils): March 12, 2023
Mauritania Legislative and Local Elections: May 13, 2023
Gambia Local Elections: May 13, 2023
Mauritania Legislative and Local Runoffs: May 18, 2023
Sierra Leone Presidential and Legislative Elections: June 24, 2023
Mali Local Elections: June 2023 (due – delays possible)
Zimbabwe General Elections: July 2023 (due)
Sudan General Elections: July 2023 (tentative – delays possible)
Gabon Presidential, Legislative, and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Eswatini Parliamentary and Local Elections: August 2023 (due)
Gabon Legislative Elections: September 2023 (due)
Liberia Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 10, 2023
Mozambique Local Elections: October 11, 2023
Nigeria, Gubernatorial Elections in Imo State, Kogi State, and Bayelsa State: November 11, 2023
Madagascar Presidential Election: October 2023 (due)
Mali Legislative Elections: October 2023 (due – delays possible)
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presidential and Legislative Elections: December 20, 2023
Togo Legislative and Regional Elections: December 2023 (due)
Côte d’Ivoire Local Elections (due in 2023)
Comoros Gubernatorial Elections (due in 2023)
Ghana Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea-Bissau Local Elections (due in 2023)
Guinea Local Elections (due in 2023 – delays possible to to coup situation)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Americas
January 21, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the Americas, usually posted on Saturdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Americas Elections
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Gabriel Cohen, The Diplomat (January 18, 2023): The South American Election That Has Taiwan Scrambling: Paraguay’s upcoming election in late April could see the country establish ties with China at long last. Taipei is predictably worried.
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Kyle Rose, Foreign Brief (January 20, 2023): Guatemala to hold general elections
Americas Quarterly (January 19, 2023): Meet the Candidates: Guatemala
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Andres Oppenheimer, Miami Herald (January 20, 2023): Argentina drifts farther away from the U.S. by hosting dictators of Cuba, Venezuela
Americas Quarterly (January 19, 2023): Meet the Candidates: Argentina
Haiti General Elections: Long overdue, could happen in 2023 but don’t hold your breath
Widlore Mérancourt and Amanda Coletta, Washington Post (January 21, 2023): Senators’ departure leaves Haiti without an elected government
Megan Janetsky, AP (January 21, 2023): Gang war in Haitian capital leaves at least 3 police dead
Venezuela Presidential Election: Due in 2024
Arturo McFields Yescas, The Hill (January 22, 2023): Venezuela’s dictator loves dollars but lashes out at democracy
Guillermo Zubillaga, Americas Quarterly (January 18, 2023): Venezuela Isn’t on Track for 2024 Elections
Christina Lu, Foreign Policy (January 17, 2023): The World Is Done Waiting for Guaidó: The ouster of Venezuela’s would-be interim president has left U.S. policy in limbo, rapprochement in the air, and a legal mess for all.
Past Americas Elections
Antigua and Barbuda Snap Elections: January 18, 2023
The Commonwealth (January 20, 2023): Commonwealth observers say Antigua and Barbuda’s general election reflects ‘the will of voters’
Brian Ellsworth, Reuters (January 19, 2023): Antigua and Barbuda PM Browne secures third term in general elections
Brazil General Elections: October 2, 2022
Mary Anastasia O’Grady, Wall Street Journal (January 22, 2023): Brazil’s Crackdown on Free Speech: The Supreme Court is a even greater threat to democracy than the Jan. 8 riots were.
AFP (January 21, 2023): Brazil’s President Fires Army Chief After Anti-Government Riots
DW (January 20, 2023): Brazil defense minister says military not involved in riots
Bruno Franguelli, SJ, La Civiltà Cattolica (January 20, 2023): The Election of Lula and a Polarized Brazil
Jessica Ludwig, George W. Bush Institute (January 19, 2023): The insurrection in Brasília: A crisis foretold
Bryan Harris, Financial Times (January 18, 2023): Isolated Bolsonaro faces mounting investigations over Brazil riots
Bolivia General Elections: October 18, 2020 (re-run of 2019 elections)
Reuters (January 20, 2023): Bolivia judge rules opposition governor must remain detained ahead of trial
Paola Flores and Daniel Politi, AP (January 18, 2023): Protesters lift blockades in Bolivia’s Santa Cruz region
Peru General Elections: April 11, 2021 (early elections could be set for April or December 2024)
James Blears, Vatican News (January 21, 2023): Protestors demand elections in Peru, president’s resignation
AP (January 19, 2023): Protesters from Peru’s Andes descend on the country’s capital to demand leader resign
Elise Ann Allen, Crux (January 19, 2023): Amid violence and political crisis, Peru’s bishops appeal for calm
BN Americas (January 19, 2023): Spotlight: The decisive role of Peru’s south in the early election
Regional Analysis
Michael Stott and Lucinda Elliott, Financial Times (January 21, 2023): Brazil and Argentina to start preparations for a common currency: Other Latin American nations will be invited to join plan which could create world’s second-largest currency union
Chase Harrison, AS/COA (January 19, 2023): Argentina Hosts 7th CELAC Summit amid New Presidential Landscape
Daniel Zovatto, International IDEA (January 17, 2023): Latin America Political and Electoral Outlook 2023
Americas Elections Coming Up in 2023
Antigua and Barbuda Snap Elections: January 18, 2023
Trinidad and Tobago Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): January 20, 2023
Ecuador Regional and Local Elections: February 5, 2023
Jamaica Local Elections: February 2023 (long overdue – date still not set)
British Virgin Islands Assembly Election: February 2023 (due)
Guyana Local Elections: March 13, 2023
Argentina, Gubernatorial Elections in Corrientes and Neuquen: March 26, 2023
Antigua and Barbuda General Elections: March 2023 (due)
Paraguay Presidential, Legislative, and Gubernatorial Elections: April 30, 2023
Canada, Alberta Provincial Elections: May 29, 2023
Mexico, Some Gubernatorial Elections: June 4, 2023
Guatemala General Elections: June 25, 2023
Guatemala General Election Runoffs: August 20, 2023
Canada, Prince Edward Island Provincial Elections: October 2, 2023
Canada, Manitoba Provincial Elections and Northwest Territories Territorial Elections: October 3, 2023
Argentina Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 22, 2023
Colombia Regional Elections: October 29, 2023
Dominica Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): October 2023 (due)
Trinidad and Tobago Local Elections: December 20, 2023
Haiti Presidential and Legislative Elections: Long overdue, but could happen in 2023 (delayed from November 7, 2021, no new date set)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Asia
January 20, 2023
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023 and in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023 (followed by more state elections later this year and parliamentary elections next year)
India’s states have their own elected governments that have significant devolved power. Roughly one-third of them hold elections in 2023. First up: the northeastern states of Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya, followed by votes in Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana (and possibly Jammu & Kashmir) later this year.
These state elections will set the tone for next year’s Lok Sabha (parliamentary) polls, which determine who runs the government. Narendra Modi’s BJP is campaigning for a history-making third term.
Andy Mukherjee, Bloomberg (January 20, 2023): Modi Can Shrug Off Gandhi’s Populist Challenge, For Now
Darn Singh, India Today (January 18, 2023): 400 days for Lok Sabha polls: Why 2024 will be historic in many ways
Nidhi Razdan, Gulf News (January 18, 2023): Narendra Modi’s BJP clicks into gear for the 2024 Indian national elections: India’s ruling party launches campaign to win third consecutive poll and create history
India Today (January 18, 2023): Nagaland, Meghalaya and Tripura elections: What’s at stake in three northeastern states
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Sri Lanka plans to hold local elections on March 9, 2023, its first elections since major protests over inflation, shortages, and a general economic crisis began in March 2022. The protests led to the resignation of then-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and members of his family. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the former opposition leader, became president.
Sri Lanka is a hotspot for geopolitical competition between China and India. The Rajapaksa moved the country closer to China.
The local elections could be delayed to to a lack of funds to administer them.
Voice of America (January 20, 2023): India Facilitates IMF Bailout for Crisis Stricken Sri Lanka
Zulfick Farzan, News1st Sri Lanka (January 18, 2023): Local Government Election will be held on time, Election Comm. gives assurance to Supreme Court
Bharatha Mallawarachi, AP (January 17, 2023): Sri Lanka urged to free student activist held over protests
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
Thailand has been led by Prayuth Chan-ocha since 2014. Prayuth initially came to power in a coup, and then became prime minister following elections in 2019. The May elections are likely to pit Prayuth against the populist faction of exiled former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra has announced her intention to run for prime minster this year.
Prayuth’s coup in 2014 removed the government of Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. As Reuter notes: “Administrations loyal to Shinawatras have each been removed by the military or judicial rulings, adding fuel to a seemingly intractable political crisis that has ebbed and flowed in Thailand for over 17 years.”
Reuters (January 16, 2023): Daughter of Thailand’s exiled former PM Thaksin to seek premiership
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
The 2021 elections to the Legislative Council took place in the context of Beijing’s determination to gut Hong Kong’s democracy. A draconian new national security law has led to the imprisonment of pro-democracy candidates, activists, and journalists.
In the 2021 elections, only candidates deemed “patriotic” were permitted, and as a result, the legislature is now overwhelmingly pro-Beijing. Hong Kong has a history of vigorous debate and democratic politics and Beijing’s measures are not popular. In that vein, over 89,000 residents left Hong Kong in the year after the national security law took effect.
Radio Free Asia (January 16, 2023): China appoints hard-line security chief to be its representative in Hong Kong: Move comes amid an ongoing war of words between Beijing and London over the city’s promised freedoms
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
William Echols, Polygraph.INFO (January 20, 2023): Ahead of an Epochal Election, Cambodia Turns Courts Against Opposition
Radio Free Asia (January 20, 2023): Hun Sen threatens opposition, seeking to divide party ahead of July elections
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Khin Soe Win, Voice of America (January 20, 2023): Q&A: US Sees No Chance of Fair Election Under Myanmar Junta
East Asia Forum (January 20, 2023): The revolutionary whirlwind widens in Myanmar
The Irrawaddy (January 18, 2023): Myanmar Junta Leaked Memo Shows Resistance Growing Beyond Control
The Irrawaddy (January 16, 2023): Over 60 Myanmar Junta Forces Killed in Three Days of Resistance Attacks
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Maldives is due to hold a presidential election in September 2023. The idyllic archipelago was under a brutal dictatorship for decades, but began a remarkable transition to democracy in 2008. The road to democracy has been somewhat rocky and the former dictator and his family remain involved in politics.
On January 28, the pro-democracy, center-right Maldivian Democratic Party (currently in power) will hold a primary to decide its presidential candidate. Incumbent Ibrahim Mohamed Solih faces off against former president Mohamed Nasheed. Meanwhile, another former president, Abdulla Yameen, who is also brother-in-law of the former dictator, will be the candidate for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Former defense minister Mohamed Nazim is also running.
The country, in the strategically-important Indian Ocean, has been part of geopolitical competition between India and the democratic world on the one hand and China on the other hand. MDP is broadly pro-India while PPM is broadly pro-China.
Avas (January 15, 2023): Maldives Presidential Election to be held on Sept 9
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Henry Olsen, Washington Post (January 20, 2023): Jacinda Ardern is right to leave office — before voters force her out
Daniel Gilhooly, AFP (January 20, 2023): Chris Hipkins to be New Zealand PM
Jessie Yeung and Hilary Whiteman, CNN, (January 19, 2023): New Zealand leader Jacinda Ardern announces shock resignation before upcoming election
AP (January 18, 2023): Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has called New Zealand’s next general elections for Oct. 14
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
In recent years, Bangladesh has emerged as a bigger player in regional and global politics. Under the government of Sheikh Hasina Wazed and her Awami League (AL) party, the economy has really taken off. But she and the AL have governed in an increasingly authoritarian manner.
Freedom House notes: “Sheikh Hasina was sworn in for her third term as prime minister in early 2019 following the AL’s overwhelming victory in the 2018 elections, which were marked by violence, intimidation of opposition candidates and supporters, allegations of fraud benefiting the ruling party, and the exclusion of nonpartisan election monitors.”
Hasina’s bitter political rival (and the only other person to serve as prime minister since 1991) is Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia, who was jailed for a time and is currently effectively barred from participating in politics. Hasina and Zia come from rival families that each played a key role in Bangladesh’s early days as a country.
The Diplomat (January 21, 2023): As US, China Fight Over Bangladesh, India Is the Real Winner
New Age Bangladesh (January 18, 2023): EU to send election observers for JS polls in Bangladesh
Porimol Palma, The Daily Star (January 17, 2023): Washington wants Dhaka to play key role in Indo-Pacific region
Md. Kamruzzaman, Anadolu Agency (January 17, 2023): Bangladesh’s main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls: Without neutral caretaker government, no fair elections have been held in country’s history, analyst says
Wajahat S. Khan, GZERO (January 16, 2023): In Bangladesh, a powerful premiership is transforming into a brutal dictatorship
Taiwan Presidential Election: Early 2024 (due)
Taiwan’s presidential election is due next year. The governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had a poor showing in last year’s local elections, leading to President Tsai Ing-Wen stepping down as party leader.
The DPP is generally seen as more pro-independence than the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
The Diplomat (January 21, 2023): The International Effect of Taiwan’s Local Elections: Taiwan’s local officials can, and often do, set their own course with regards to China and other countries.
Cindy Wang and Samson Ellis, Bloomberg (January 19, 2023): Taiwan Premier Resigns Leaving Tsai With Key Cabinet Decision
Yu Nakamura, Nikkei Asia (January 16, 2023): Taiwan’s ruling party elects VP as new leader to spearhead revival: Lai to take the reins as questions swirl over his pro-independence stance
Reuters (January 15, 2023): Taiwan VP new ruling party boss sets stage for presidential run
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Fiji General Elections: December 14, 2022
Fiji’s December 2022 elections toppled the government of former coup leader Frank Bainimarama by Sitiveni Rabuka, who himself also previously led a coup (Fiji has had four coups since the 1980s).
On the campaign trail, Rabuka ruled out a security pact with China and advocated for a return to closer relations with Australia.
Radio New Zealand (January 20, 2023): Fiji’s election chief suspended following complaint
Shailendra Bahadur Singh, Lowy Institute (January 17, 2023): Fiji’s new politics: After a first smooth change of power, forging consensus in a nation renowned for ethnic tension poses a continued test.
Lewis Jackson and Kristy Needham, Reuters (January 17, 2023): Fiji military warns govt against ‘sweeping changes’ after tight election
Vietnam Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament): April 5, 2021
AFP notes: “[President Nguyen Xuan Phuc]’s sudden departure is a highly unusual move in communist Vietnam, where political changes are normally carefully orchestrated with an emphasis on cautious stability.”
Bloomberg (January 18, 2023): The Key Contenders to Replace Vietnam’s Ousted President
AFP (January 17, 2023): Vietnam president resigns amid major anti-graft purge
Asia/Pacific Elections Coming Up in 2023
Nepal Presidential Election (by Parliament): February 11, 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Tripura: February 16, 2023
India, State Elections in Nagaland and Meghalaya: February 27, 2023
Bangladesh Indirect Presidential Election (by parliament – largely symbolic role): February 2023 (due)
Micronesia Parliamentary Elections: March 7, 2023
Sri Lanka Local Elections: March 9, 2023
Australia, New South Wales State Elections: March 25, 2023
Bhutan National Assembly Elections: March 2023 (due)
Sri Lanka Provincial Elections: March 2023 (due)
Japan Unified Local Elections: April 2023 (due)
Thailand General Elections: May 7, 2023
New Zealand, Niue General Elections: May 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Karnataka: May 2023 (due)
Hong Kong District Council Elections: June 2023 (due)
Tonga Local Elections: June 2023 (due)
Cambodia Parliamentary Elections: July 23, 2023
Burma Parliamentary Elections: August 2023 (proposed – tentative, post-coup, widely considered likely to be a sham)
Maldives Presidential Election: September 9, 2023
Tuvalu General Elections: September 2023 (due)
Singapore Presidential Election (largely ceremonial role): September 2023 (due)
New Zealand General Elections: October 14, 2023
Philippines Village Elections: October 30, 2023
Bhutan Parliamentary Elections: October 2023 (due)
Marshall Islands Parliamentary Elections: November 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram: November 2023 (due)
Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, State Elections in Rajasthan and Telangana: December 2023 (due)
Philippines Village Elections: December 2023 (due)
India, Elections in Jammu and Kashmir: Proposed for 2023
Malaysia, State Elections in Six States: Due in 2023 (could be held in July)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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This Week
Eurasia
January 19, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes.
The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
RFE/RL (January 19, 2023): Kazakh President Dismisses Parliament, Calls Snap Parliamentary Elections
Paolo Sorbello, The Diplomat (January 17, 2023): Kazakhstan’s Media, Journalists Under Pressure: An attack on a journalist highlights the difficult environment for the press.
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
RFE/RL (January 19, 2023): Dozens Of Russian Lawmakers Urge Putin To Halt Pressure Tactics On Navalny
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (January 18, 2023): EU Ambassador’s concerns over ex-Pres. Saakashvili’s health “surprising”, “groundless” – Vice PM
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due)
Khatia Dekanoidze, Euronews (January 18, 2023): Georgia is at a crossroads to European integration
Belarus Presidential Election: August 2025 (due)
Voice of America (January 17, 2023): Belarus Begins Trial of Opposition Leader
Anoushka Rajesh Suhane, Jurist (January 18, 2023): Belarus opposition leader condemns her trial in absentia
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany and Katie Martin, Financial Times (January 17, 2023): Belarus opposition leader warns of ‘massive disobedience’ if Alexander Lukashenko mobilises for Ukraine war
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Kazakhstan Senate Elections: January 14, 2023
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 2023 (due)
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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