September 2021 Election Outlook

São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 214,000

At stake: Office of the president

Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 36.6 million

At stake: All seats in the legislature, and therefore the government because Morocco is a parliamentary system. Various local and provincial offices are also up for election

Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021

Government Type: Executive-led limited democracy; a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China
Population: 630,000

At stake: All seats in Macaus legislature

Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.5 million

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government, because Norway is a parliamentary system

Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 352,000

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government.

Russia Parliamentary and Some State Elections: September 17-19, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142 million

At stake: Seats in the State Duma (parliament), plus various regional offices

Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 37.9 million

At stake: All seats in parliament and therefore the composition of the government

Isle of Man Parliamentary Elections: September 23, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary democracy – self-governing British Crown Dependency
Population: 91, 000

At stake: All seats in the House of Keys

Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Unitary Parliamentary Republic
Population: 354,000

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the government, because Iceland is a parliamentary system.

Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 79.9 million

At stake: All seats in the Bundestag, plus the composition of the government, because Germany is a parliamentary system. Also, state governments in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million

At stake: Local government offices throughout Portugal

Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 8.9 million

At stake: State government and local offices in Upper Austria

São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Runoff: September 5, 2021 (delayed from August 8)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 214,000

At stake: Office of the president

São Tomé and Príncipe (frequently called STP) is due to hold a presidential runoff, following the first round on July 18, 2021. The runoff was supposed to take place on August 8, but faced a delay because the candidate who placed third in the first round – and thus did not make the runoff – contested the results. However, a court ordered the runoff to go forward, but has been delayed to September 5.

The current president, Evaristo Carvalho, from the centrist ADI party, is not running for a second term – the first time this has happened in STP’s history. Nineteen candidates ran to succeed him, including six from the MLSTP-PSD party, which was the ruling party during the communist era and currently heads the government.

In the runoff, former infrastructure minister Carlos Vila Nova from ADI will face off against former prime minister Guilherme Posser da Costa from MLSTP-PSD. Since the end of Marxist one-party rule in 1991, São Tomé and Príncipe has held regular elections with peaceful transfers of power, and is generally considered a free democracy.

In STP’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister holds executive power and serves as head of government, while the president serves as head of state, arbitrating within the government and representing the country.

Morocco Legislative and Local Elections: September 8, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 36.6 million

At stake: All seats in the legislature, and therefore the government because Morocco is a parliamentary system. Various local and provincial offices are also up for election

Morocco has set legislative, provincial, and local elections for September 8, 2021. The elections are taking place in the context of discontentment and disillusionment. Although the current monarch, King Mohammed VI, has instituted a number of political reforms, he still plays a major role in governing, both through formal structures and informally. Following the 2011 constitutional reforms, the king must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats in parliament, but the king can still circumvent elected officials in various ways (including dissolving parliament or simply issuing decrees).

In the last elections, in 2016, the moderate Islamic democratic Party of Justice and Development (PJD) won the most seats. However, the king sought to sideline PJD as much as possible with ministerial appointments.

Macau Legislative Elections: September 12, 2021

Government Type: Executive-led limited democracy; a special administrative region of the People’s Republic of China
Population: 630,000

At stake: All seats in Macaus legislature

Macau is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, having reverted from Portuguese control to Chinese control in 1999. The main industry is gaming, with a casino sector seven times the size of that of Las Vegas. The legislature is dominated by pro-Beijing politicians, who hold 29 out of the 33 seats, with pro-democracy politicians holding the remaining four.

Most recently, pro-democracy candidates were banned from the upcoming elections, mirroring Hong Kong’s crackdown on democracy.

Norway Parliamentary Elections: September 13, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 5.5 million

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government, because Norway is a parliamentary system

Norway holds parliamentary elections on September 13, 2021. Prime Minister Erna Solberg, who heads a center-right coalition, has been in office since 2013. She faces a serious challenge from the left-leaning opposition and the Greens. More

United States, California Gubernatorial Recall Election: September 14, 2021

California will vote on whether to recall Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, on September 14, 2021.

Bahamas Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 16, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 352,000

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the composition of the government.

Bahamas will hold snap elections on September 16, eight months early. The Bahamas is a democracy and the two main parties, the governing center-right Free National Movement (FNM) and the center-left main opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) have both done stints in power.

Russia Parliamentary and Some State Elections: September 17-19, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Federation
Population: 142 million

At stake: Seats in the State Duma (parliament), plus various regional offices

Russia holds parliamentary elections September 17-19, 2021. Russian elections are neither free nor fair. Nonetheless, the opposition has been making some gains in recent regional elections, helped by opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s “Smart Vote,” a campaign of tactical voting, in which they developed a list of candidates the best chance of beating Vladimir Putin’s United Russia.

Consequently, the Kremlin has launched a brutal crackdown on the proposition, including imprisoning Navalny. Candidates who have worked with Navalny or supported him have been banned from the upcoming election. Only one genuine opposition party – the liberal Yabloko – currently is able to field candidates.

Canada Snap Parliamentary Elections: September 20, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth realm
Population: 37.9 million

At stake: All seats in parliament and therefore the composition of the government

Canada will hold snap elections on September 20, 2021, two years early. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who currently heads a minority government, is hoping to win a majority for his Liberals. However, many Canadians do not want elections at this time, making the decision a major gamble.

Isle of Man Parliamentary Elections: September 23, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary democracy – self-governing British Crown Dependency
Population: 91, 000
At stake: All seats in the House of Keys

The Isle of Man, a self-governing British Crown Dependency, holds elections to the House of Keys (parliament) on September 23, 2021. The House of Keys dates back to at least 1417. These follow July’s local elections and will likely be a sleepy affair.

Iceland Parliamentary Elections: September 25, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Unitary Parliamentary Republic
Population: 354,000

At stake: All seats in parliament, and therefore the government, because Iceland is a parliamentary system.

Iceland holds elections for the Althing, its parliament (which has a strong claim to the title of oldest parliament in the world), September 25, 2021. The current government is a broad coalition of the Left-Green Movement, the conservative Independence Party, and the agrarian Progressive Party.

Germany Bundestag Elections, plus state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 79.9 million

At stake: All seats in the Bundestag, plus the composition of the government, because Germany is a parliamentary system. Also, state governments in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Germany is holding several sets of elections next year, culminating in the September 26, 2021 federal parliamentary elections that will determine who succeeds Angela Merkel as chancellor. Additionally, five states hold elections.  The year 2021 is thus a “Superwahljahr” (Super election year) in Germany. 

Following an intense fight, CDU and CSU nominated CDU leader Armin Laschet to be their candidate for chancellor. He defeated the Bavarian Markus Söder, who is more popular with voters. Meanwhile, over the past year, the Greens begun to rival SPD as the main center-left party. They have portrayed themselves as responsible and mainstream, and have governed as such when in state governments. Consequently, Annalena Baerbock could become the first Green head of government in the history of the world.

However, in recent weeks, SPD has bounced back in the polls, making the election anyone’s game and increasing the likelihood that Germany ends up with three-party governing coalition for the first time in decades. More

Portugal Local Elections: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.3 million

At stake: Local government offices throughout Portugal

Portugal holds local elections on September 26. The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election and was re-elected in January 2021.

Austria, Upper Austria State and Municipal Elections: September 26, 2021

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: 8.9 million

At stake: State government and local offices in Upper Austria

Austria’s Upper Austria (whose capital is Linz, home of the Linzertorte cake) state holds elections in September. All four parties who have seats in the state legislature – Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’ center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Social Democrats (SPÖ), and the Greens – are part of the state government.

Austria is subsequently due to hold a presidential election by April 2022, but the role is largely ceremonial, with the chancellor instead holding most executive power.

Election posters in Hamburg, Germany in September 2021. Photo credit: © Dreamstime/Oleksandr Lutsenko

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