Europe This Week – October 16, 2019

October 16, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Europe on Wednesdays. Click the map pins.

Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary – May 2020 (Not yet called, but likely)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Croatia Presidential – December 2019 or January 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020

Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

France’s 2017 presidential election saw the collapse of the two political parties that had historically dominated French politics – François Hollande’s Socialists and Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republicans (formerly the Union for a Popular Movement – UMP). Neither party’s candidate made it to the final round. Instead, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen from the Front National (now called National Rally) lost to centrist Emmanuel Macron, whose newly-formed La République en Marche! (LREM) pulled together a combination of figures from the right and the left. In the legislative elections soon after, LREM won a majority.

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). During the 2014 municipal elections, the Socialists took heavy losses, and the center-right made big gains, with the far-right also making some gains, winning control of 11 towns. However, the Socialists held onto Paris in a close election – Anne Hidalgo beat UMP’s Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet in the second round to become Paris’s first female mayor (Kosciusko-Morizet had won more votes in the first round). Hidalgo is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

United Kingdom General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo held snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019

Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.

ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.

Upcoming Europe Elections
Switzerland Parliamentary – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Republic (formally a confederation)
Population: 8.3 million

The right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party won by a landslide in Switzerland’s last elections, in 2015, but the government is an ideologically-diverse coalition of the four largest parties in parliament.

London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “What to expect from the 2019 Swiss federal elections: Switzerland will hold federal elections on 20 October. Sean Mueller explains that the vote will once again demonstrate the high level of stability that exists within the Swiss party system.”

The Local (Switzerland): “EXPLAINED: Why the Swiss election is not the most important vote in the country”

Spain Snap Parliamentary – November 10, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy
Population: 49.3 million

Spain is headed for its fourth election in four years following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s failure to form a coalition government. The incumbent Socialists won the April snap elections, which Sánchez called after failing to pass a budget. The far-right Vox won seats, the first time the far-right has been in parliament since Spain became a democracy (Vox also won seats in Andalusia’s regional elections in December, the first time for the far-right to enter any Spanish legislative body in the history of Spanish democracy).

Raphael Minder, New York Times: “With Catalan Fury Inflamed Anew, What Comes Next for Spain? Lengthy prison terms for nine separatists who led a secession attempt in 2017 have fueled protests across the region before national elections.”

Updated October 17, 2019

Reuters: “Support for Spain’s ruling Socialists has slipped ahead of elections in November, with neither the left nor the right-wing blocs on course to win a majority, a Sigma Dos poll in El Mundo daily showed on Thursday.”

Ireland Parliamentary By-Elections – November 2019 (expected) and Snap Parliamentary – May 2020 (Not yet called, but likely)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 5.1 million

The last elections for the Dáil Éireann (parliament) took place in February 2016, and the next elections are due by April 2021, although there has been speculation that Ireland will have snap elections, possibly in May 2020. The two biggest parties are the center-right Fine Gael, currently in government, and the centrist Fianna Fáil, which has a confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael. Other parties include the left-wing Sinn Féin, the political arm of the infamous Irish Republican Army (IRA), and various other smaller center-left and left-wing parties.

The by-elections will fill four seats vacated when the incumbents won seats to the European Parliament in May. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil each held one of the seats up for grabs in the by-elections, and the remaining two were Independents 4 Change, a left-wing and green political group.

Fiach Kelly, Irish Times: “Taoiseach’s head of policy rules out general election before May 2020: Comments follow days of speculation that Varadkar could go to country in November.”

Croatia Presidential – December 2019 or January 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 4.3 million

In the 2014-2015 elections, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović from the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) narrowly defeated independent (former Social Democrat) incumbent Ivo Josipović in the runoff to become Croatia’s first female president. She is running for re-election. Several other candidates have also expressed interest. Because Croatia is a parliamentary system, the president does not have executive authority. HDZ currently heads Croatia’s government. Croatia’s next parliamentary elections are due by December 23, 2020.

Christy Cooney, The Sun (UK): “Ex Playboy model Ava Karabatić running to be Croatia’s president on ticket to legalise prostitution and cannabis”

France Municipal – March 15-22, 2020
Freedom House Rating: Free 
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 67.4 million

France’s 2017 presidential election saw the collapse of the two political parties that had historically dominated French politics – François Hollande’s Socialists and Nicolas Sarkozy’s Republicans (formerly the Union for a Popular Movement – UMP). Neither party’s candidate made it to the final round. Instead, right-wing populist Marine Le Pen from the Front National (now called National Rally) lost to centrist Emmanuel Macron, whose newly-formed La République en Marche! (LREM) pulled together a combination of figures from the right and the left. In the legislative elections soon after, LREM won a majority.

French municipal elections happen every six years. Voters will elect councils in France’s 36,000+ communes, which are towns or cities (anything from a tiny village to Paris itself). During the 2014 municipal elections, the Socialists took heavy losses, and the center-right made big gains, with the far-right also making some gains, winning control of 11 towns. However, the Socialists held onto Paris in a close election – Anne Hidalgo beat UMP’s Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet in the second round to become Paris’s first female mayor (Kosciusko-Morizet had won more votes in the first round). Hidalgo is expected to run for another term. The other parties are currently in the process of selecting their candidates.

Updated October 17, 2019

Norimitsu Onishi, New York Times: “France’s Far Right Wants to Be an Environmental Party, Too: Ahead of next year’s municipal elections, [Marine Le Pen’s National Rally] party is promoting cities like Hénin-Beaumont, where it has been in power since 2014, as settings for its own brand of down-to-earth environmentalism.”

Romania Presidential – November 10, 2019 and Local – Expected June 2020 (Snap parliamentary possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 21.5 million

Since communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu fell in 1989, Romania has become a free democracy but politics are volatile – the office of the prime minister has changed hands eight times since 2014. Corruption and weak rule of law remain serious problems. Liviu Dragnea, head of the governing left-wing Social Democratic Party (PSD), is currently in prison for abuse of power. PSD only got 23 percent of votes in the May 2019 European Parliament election, half of the support it had in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The 2014 presidential elections handed a surprise victory to Klaus Iohannis, the center-right mayor of Sibiu in Transylvania, who defeated then-Prime Minister Victor Ponta in the runoff. Iohannis plans to run for a second term.

Irina Vilcu and Andra Timu, Bloomberg: “Here’s Why Romanian Politics Are Blowing Up Yet Again”

Euronews: “Romania’s centrist President Klaus Iohannis said on Tuesday he has appointed opposition Liberal Party leader Ludovic Orban as prime minister-designate to form a transitional government until a parliamentary election next year. Prime Minister Viorica Dancila’s centre-left government collapsed this month after losing a no-confidence vote in parliament, raising the prospect of a government with limited support from a fragmented opposition.”

Valerie Hopkins, Financial Times: “Ludovic Orban set to be country’s fourth premier in less than 3 years after government collapses….The prospect of a snap general election after November’s presidential vote has not been ruled out, some analysts say.”

United Kingdom Local (including Mayor of London) – May 7, 2020 and General – Due by May 5, 2022 (snap possible)
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth Realm)
Population: 65.1 million

The Conservatives won a majority in the the 2015 elections, allowing them to form a government on their own (they had defeated the incumbent Labour in the 2010 elections, but did not have a majority and had to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats). The Conservatives had promised to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union (Brexit), and the highly polarized vote delivered a win for the Brexiteers.

Following the result of the referendum, Cameron resigned as prime minister, and former Home Minister Teresa May won the subsequent Conservative Party leadership contest and became prime minister. May called for a new general election, but the gamble failed and the Conservatives lost their majority. They were able to form a government backed by a confidence-and-supply deal with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, a situation that significantly hindered the government’s ability to negotiate an exit. Following pressure, May resigned, and firebrand Brexiteer Boris Johnson won the leadership contest and became Prime Minister. Johnson has committed to delivering Brexit by October 31, 2019, with or without a deal. However, many MPs oppose leaving without a deal, creating a climate of tension and uncertainty in British politics.

Thomas Colson, Business Insider: “Nicola Sturgeon’s election demands could backfire and kill off her hopes of Scottish independence”

Gibraltar Election – October 17, 2019

AP: “Official election results in Gibraltar, a speck of British territory on Spain’s southern tip, show that an alliance of socialists and liberals has won a third consecutive term in government.”

Cristina Gallardo, Politico: “Fabian Picardo will be responsible for steering Gibraltar safely through Brexit after being reelected as chief minister of The Rock.”

Past Europe Elections
Poland Parliamentary – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy
Population: 38.4 million

Poland’s right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) came to power in the 2015 elections, winning a majority, a first for a Polish political party in a free election. The party has been criticized for its increasingly authoritarian tendencies, but it nonetheless won a massive victory in this year’s European Parliament elections. The country is highly polarized, and upcoming parliamentary elections will be crucial in determining the country’s future course.

Bartosz Dudek, DW: “Opinion: Polish leader Kaczynski’s political calculations pay off: The results of parliamentary polls in Poland come as no surprise. PiS party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s policies aimed at ‘ordinary folks’ have made the party a force for years to come, says DW’s Bartosz Dudek.”

Marc Santora, New York Times: “Poland’s populist ruling party appeared to have swept back into power on Sunday, as voters dismissed concerns about the autocratic drift of the government and rewarded the party for its generous social welfare programs.”

Petros Fassoulas, EU Observer: “While it is important to understand what drives PiS supporters to respond to the party’s nationalistic and conservative stance, we should also acknowledge the high degree of consistent, civil activism in Poland which is calling for more democracy and pluralism. PiS’ dominant position in the political spectrum can be explained by the Poles affinity for some of the core themes that the party employs in its political agenda and discourse, like support for traditional values, national pride and patriotism.”

Piotr Buras, European Council on Foreign Relations: “Poland after the election: New headaches for the EU: The freshly re-elected Law and Justice party will now be more emboldened than ever in its dealings with Brussels.”

Jon Henley, The Guardian: “Election results give hope to opposition in Poland and Hungary: Analysts say tactic of cooperation against nationalist parties appears to be working.”

Hungary Local – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free (downgraded from Free this year)
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 9.9 million

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has become increasingly authoritarian. Nonetheless, the party has been on a winning streak. In the April 2018 parliamentary elections, Fidesz won a third supermajority, and the party won 52 percent of the vote in this year’s European Parliament elections. While the party has historically been a member of the center-right European People’s Party, it has in recent years become populist and nationalist, but with left-wing economic policies. Orbán has pushed the idea of “illiberal democracy.” The local elections will not change the national government, but if the opposition can unite and put in a strong showing, it will reduce Fidesz’s stranglehold on the country’s politics.

In June 2019, the Hungarian opposition united to hold the country’s first-ever formal primary to choose a candidate for mayor of Budapest. Sociologist Gergely Karácsony will take on incumbent István Tarlós, who is backed by Orban.

Teo Armus, Washington Post: “A mayor was caught on tape having an orgy on a yacht. Days later, he was reelected.”

Benjamin Novak, New York Times: “Setback for Orban as Opposition in Hungary Gains Ground in Elections The governing Fidesz party lost the mayoralty of Budapest and 10 other cities in a campaign dominated by sex tapes and corruption accusations.”

Loveday Morris, Washington Post: “Populists in Eastern Europe looked shaken on Monday, after local elections in Hungary dealt a blow to leader Viktor Orban and Poland’s ruling party lost control of the Senate.”

Kosovo Snap Parliamentary – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 1.9 million

Kosovo held snap elections on October 6 following the resignation of Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj after he was summoned to The Hague about potential war crimes. Haradinaj, who had previously been acquitted for war crimes – became prime minister in snap elections in June 2017 following a no-confidence motion.

Kosovo – which is 90 percent ethnic Albanian – was formerly part of Serbia, and for a long time enjoyed a degree of autonomy. However, in 1999, in the context of the breakup of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic became president of Serbia and centralized control of Kosovo. This kicked off a bloody war between Serbian forces and the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). NATO intervened with airstrikes and Kosovo was placed under UN administration. On February 17, 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized the country on February 18. Other countries followed suit, and even though some countries continue to view Kosovo as a breakaway province of Serbia, many analysts believe that independence is an irreversible fact.

Kosovo has a number of political parties that compete in elections – many grew out of KLA networks or were founded by prominent KLA commanders. Personalities play a large role in the political parties – perhaps a bigger role than ideology, although many of the parties do have broadly-stated ideologies. Kosovo has a record of holding elections that are generally credible despite some concerns. Some violent incidents still occur.

AP: “More than 20 Central Election Commission officials have been taken to the hospital with health problems after opening five ballot boxes from Serbia, authorities in Kosovo said Sunday.”

RFE/RL: “Kosovo’s top infectious diseases specialists say health issues developed by several election officials who opened ballot boxes containing votes from Serbia after a October 6 snap poll were not caused by a contagious disease.”

Milenko Vasovic, Balkan Insight:“Serbia’s President Was Real Loser in Kosovo Election: Whatever the final shape of the new government in Kosovo, it is clear that Serbs will have far less influence on it than the last one.”

Blerim Vela, London School of Economics’ EUROPP: “Five lessons from Kosovo’s parliamentary elections: Kosovo held parliamentary elections on 6 October. Blerim Vela outlines five key lessons that can be learned from the vote, which saw opposition parties make substantial gains.”

Portugal Parliamentary and Local – October 6, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 10.4 million

The two main parties, center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and leftist Socialist Party (PS), regularly alternate in power. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa from PSD won the 2016 presidential election. In the 2015 parliamentary elections, PSD won a plurality of seats and briefly formed a minority government, which collapsed after less than two months. PS leader Antonio Costa formed a left-wing coalition and became prime minister.

On September 22, the island of Madeira held elections for its regional parliament. The Socialists deprived PSD of their majority, and tripled their vote count.

Stratfor: “Can Portugal Remain the Eurozone’s Anomaly? In the wake of the eurozone financial crisis in the early 2010s, an informal alliance of left-wing forces in Portugal unexpectedly managed to not only stabilize the country’s battered economy, but also to make it more attractive to foreign investors. And Portugal’s Oct. 6 general election has since confirmed its place as a European anomaly, with the government winning reelection on a continent where nationalist and right-wing parties are on the rise.”

Austria Snap Parliamentary – September 29, 2019 and Vorarlberg State – October 13, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free
Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Republic
Population: Austria – 8.8 million; Vorarlberg State – 389,000

Austria’s government fell in a no-confidence vote – the first in Austria’s history – in May following the “Ibiza-gate” scandal involving the far-right Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which had been part of the coalition headed by Chancellor Sebastian Kurz of the center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). FPÖ leader Heinz-Christian Strache was filmed on the Spanish island of Ibiza offering state contracts in exchange for money to a woman who claimed to be the niece of a Russian oligarch.

ÖVP won the most seats, and the FPÖ saw a 10 percent loss in its vote share. Coalition negotiations are currently underway – Kurz could either reunite with the far-right, or go in a new direction with the Greens.

Alison Langley, OZY: “In September, Austria’s Greens gained more than a 10 percent increase in vote support, giving them 26 seats in Parliament where they had none earlier. They’re now the third strongest party and a contender for coalition talks with winner Sebastian Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). The right wing Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) dropped 20 seats in the elections.”

Sam Jones, Financial Times: “Austria’s far-right rocked by tensions after electoral drubbing: Scandal-tainted former Freedom party leader Heinz-Christian Strache threatens to break away.”

Vorarlberg State

ORF (Austria – in German): “ÖVP WINS, Greens ahead of crashed FPÖ: As expected, the ÖVP clearly won the state election in Vorarlberg. There were slight gains, but it was clearly not enough for the absolute majority. The FPÖ crashed, sinking to about 14 percent and also had to give second place to the Greens. SPÖ and NEOS have also gained easily.”

Tony Barber, Financial Times: “The broken dreams of 1989: Four books examine what went wrong as liberal idealism dissolved into blinkered nationalism

 

The Year Ahead: Europe Elections
Switzerland Federal Assembly (October 20); Bulgaria local (October 27); Germany Thuringia state (October 27); Romania presidential (November 10); Spain snap parliamentary (November 10); Ireland parliamentary by-elections (November); Croatia presidential (December or January); France municipal (March 15-11); Slovakia parliamentary (March); Serbia parliamentary, provincial, local (due by April – snap possible); Poland presidential (May); United Kingdom local (May 7); Iceland presidential (June); Romania local and possibly snap parliamentary (June)

A campaign sign for Beata Szydło, Poland’s former Prime Minister who currently serves as a Member of the European Parliament. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Stiopa (CC BY-SA 4.0)

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