February 15, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
A street in Berlin, Germany. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Gryffindor (public domain)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Parliamentary Elections: March 5, 2023
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister.
However, in June 2022, Centre withdrew from the government. Kallas must now find more coalition partners in order to prevent the government from collapsing, which would trigger early elections.
This is all happening in the context of major security concerns. Because Estonia is a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy, Russia has for a long time targeted the country with cyberattacks and other provocations. In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, security concerns are at the top of Estonians’ minds. More
Andrew Whyte, ERR News (February 11, 2023): How does Estonia’s Riigikogu electoral system work?
Austria, State Elections in Carinthia: March 5, 2023 and Salzburg: April 23, 2023
The center-right ÖVP lost its absolute majority in the January 29 state election in Lower Austria – an ÖVP stronghold – as right-wing populist FPÖ made gains.
This is a bad omen for ÖVP (which currently heads the federal government in coalition with the Greens) ahead of general elections next year. Lower Austria is an ÖVP stronghold, and the home region of many of the party’s leaders.
Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Euractiv (February 13, 2023): Austria’s conservatives out of options
Stephanie Liechtenstein, AP (February 12, 2023): Neutral Austria under pressure to get tougher on Russia
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Finland’s general elections are taking place in the context of its bid to join NATO after ending a long-standing policy of neutrality. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are behind the center-right National Coalition Party in the polls. While Marin remains popular with voters, many Finns are concerned about the country’s rising debt.
Charlie Duxbury, Politico (February 13, 2023): Finns don’t love Sanna Marin as much as you do: Finland’s prime minister remains popular with voters, but her Social Democrats are trailing their main rival ahead of April 2 election.
Anne Kauranen and Essi Lehto, Reuters (February 10, 2023): Finland debates NATO ratification that may leave Sweden behind
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Balkan Insight (February 14, 2023): Two New Parties Join Bulgaria’s Turbulent Election Contest
SeeNews (February 9, 2023): Formation of stable govt vital for Bulgaria’s eurozone entry
Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023
Alice Taylor, exit.al (February 14, 2023): Albanian opposition holds second anti-government protest in Tirana
Fjori Sinoruka, Balkan Insight (February 14, 2023): Concerns Raised in Albania over Ruling Party ‘Communications’ App
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023, followed by general elections due in 2024
Reuters (February 15, 2023): UK Labour leader: Jeremy Corbyn will not be a Labour candidate in next elections
Scotland
AP (February 15, 2023): Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to leave post after 8 years
Henry Hill, Unherd (February 15, 2023): How Scotland fell out of love with Nicola Sturgeon
The Spectator (February 15, 2023): Why Nicola Sturgeon had to go
Northern Ireland
Jude Webber, Financial Times (February 14, 2023): Northern Ireland’s Stormont assembly fails to elect speaker for sixth time: DUP blocks move and sinks bid to use session to pass organ donor legislation
Shawn Pogatchnik, Politico (February 9, 2023): UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election ‘deadline’ to 2024
Amanda Ferguson and Conor Humphries, Reuters (February 10, 2023): Northern Ireland unionists face historic choice as EU, UK near protocol deal
Greece Parliamentary Elections: Local Elections: May 2023 (due) and July 2023 (due)
Greece is due to hold parliamentary elections by July 2023, but earlier elections are possible. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents.
George Parker, Eleni Varvitsioti, and James Pickford, Financial Times (February 10, 2023): Inside the secret meetings that could seal the fate of the Parthenon Marbles
AFP (February 10, 2023): Greeks put politics aside to rush aid to Turkey
Reuters (February 9, 2023): Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections
Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023followed by other state elections later this year, and following February 12 Berlin state election re-run
Berlin held a re-run of its 2021 state elections, which were marred by numerous problems. Although Berlin has been governed by the left for more than 20 years, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in first place. However, they might not be able to form a government as other parties have said they would not go into coalition with CDU. Therefore, the current “red-green-red” coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens, and the Left could continue in government.
Other state elections are due later this year, and the next federal elections are due by October 2025.
Federal
AP (February 12, 2023): East Germany’s Last Communist Leader Dies at 95
Berlin
Ben Knight, DW (February 13, 2023): Berlin election win boosts German conservatives
NPR (February 13, 2023): Many Berliners say repeat elections are a sign of the city’s deeper dysfunction
Matthew Tempest, EU Observer (February 10, 2023): Is EU’s most leftwing capital about to go Conservative?
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)
Aitor Hernández-Morales and Jan Cienski, Politico (February 15, 2023): Warsaw mayor’s dilemma: Getting EU cash would boost the government he’s fighting
Aleks Szczerbiak, Notes from Poland (February 9, 2023): Can Poland’s right-wing ruling party win this year’s parliamentary election?
Past Europe Elections
Italy, Lazio and Lombardy Regional Elections: February 12, 2023
Italy’s regions of Lazio (centered on Rome) and Lombardy (centered on Milan) held elections on February 12. These come on the heels of last year’s general elections, which brought right-wing Prime Minister Georgia Meloni to power.
Meloni’s conservatives won both regions, defeating the incumbent center-left in Lazio and maintaining dominance in Lombardy.
Gregorio Sorgi, Politico (February 13, 2023): Italy regional elections: Right-wing coalition wins landslide victory
Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic (February 12, 2023): Can Georgia Meloni govern Italy?
Cyprus Presidential Runoff: February 12, 2023
Former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides defeated career diplomat Andreas Mavroyiannis in Cyprus’s presidential runoff.
Andria Kades at Cyprus Mail notes: “For the first time in Cyprus’ political history, the two biggest parties of the country have failed to get their preferred presidential candidate elected to power, marking the diminishing power Akel and Disy are currently faced with, according to elections expert Yiannis Mavris.”
Andria Kades, Cyprus Mail (February 14, 2023): Biggest election losers? Cyprus’ largest parties
Euractiv (February 13, 2023): Centrist candidate wins Cypriot elections, EU family still pending
Reuters (February 13, 2023): Cyprus president-elect ready to meet Turk Cypriot leader-office
AP (February 12, 2023): Veteran diplomat Mavroyiannis concedes defeat to ex-minister Christoulides in Cyprus presidential election
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Retired general Petr Pavel defeated controversial former prime minister Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic’s presidential runoff in January. Incumbent Milos Zeman, who has been in power for 10 years and did not run for re-election, built closer ties with Russia and China.
Pavel, a former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, favors pro-West policies, while populist Babiš has criticized support for Ukraine and the EU more generally.
CEPA (February 10, 2023): The Czech Republic’s Flannel Revolution: The election heralds a more moderate and Atlanticist course
Regional News and Analysis
David Mac Dougall, Euronews (February 15, 2023): Can ‘earthquake diplomacy’ help NATO membership chances for Sweden and Finland?
Maïthé Chini, Brussels Times (February 14, 2023): EU moves to open electoral participation to residents from other Member States
James Billot, Unherd (February 14, 2023): Elections in Europe: Olaf Scholz humiliated, Giorgia Meloni soars
Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy (February 13, 2023): The Race Is on to Be NATO’S Next Chief
Europe This Week: February 15, 2023
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Last Updated: February 25, 2023 by 21votes
February 15, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
A street in Berlin, Germany. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Gryffindor (public domain)
Upcoming Europe Elections
Estonia Parliamentary Elections: March 5, 2023
Since January 2021, Estonia’s government has been a grand coalition of the center-right Reform Party and the centrist Centre Party, which has historically been supported by Estonia’s Russian community. Following the 2019 elections, Centre shocked the country by forming a government with the far-right EKRE, but PM Juri Ratas was forced to resign in January 2021 following a real estate scandal. Subsequently, Reform – previously in opposition – formed a coalition with Centre as the junior partner, making Reform’s Kaja Kallas Estonia’s first female prime minister.
However, in June 2022, Centre withdrew from the government. Kallas must now find more coalition partners in order to prevent the government from collapsing, which would trigger early elections.
This is all happening in the context of major security concerns. Because Estonia is a poster child for a successful post-communist transition to democracy, Russia has for a long time targeted the country with cyberattacks and other provocations. In the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, security concerns are at the top of Estonians’ minds. More
Andrew Whyte, ERR News (February 11, 2023): How does Estonia’s Riigikogu electoral system work?
Austria, State Elections in Carinthia: March 5, 2023 and Salzburg: April 23, 2023
The center-right ÖVP lost its absolute majority in the January 29 state election in Lower Austria – an ÖVP stronghold – as right-wing populist FPÖ made gains.
This is a bad omen for ÖVP (which currently heads the federal government in coalition with the Greens) ahead of general elections next year. Lower Austria is an ÖVP stronghold, and the home region of many of the party’s leaders.
Nikolaus J. Kurmayer, Euractiv (February 13, 2023): Austria’s conservatives out of options
Stephanie Liechtenstein, AP (February 12, 2023): Neutral Austria under pressure to get tougher on Russia
Finland General Elections: April 2, 2023
Finland’s general elections are taking place in the context of its bid to join NATO after ending a long-standing policy of neutrality. Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats are behind the center-right National Coalition Party in the polls. While Marin remains popular with voters, many Finns are concerned about the country’s rising debt.
Charlie Duxbury, Politico (February 13, 2023): Finns don’t love Sanna Marin as much as you do: Finland’s prime minister remains popular with voters, but her Social Democrats are trailing their main rival ahead of April 2 election.
Anne Kauranen and Essi Lehto, Reuters (February 10, 2023): Finland debates NATO ratification that may leave Sweden behind
Bulgaria Snap Parliamentary Elections: April 2, 2023 (fifth election in two years)
Balkan Insight (February 14, 2023): Two New Parties Join Bulgaria’s Turbulent Election Contest
SeeNews (February 9, 2023): Formation of stable govt vital for Bulgaria’s eurozone entry
Albania Local Elections: May 14, 2023
Alice Taylor, exit.al (February 14, 2023): Albanian opposition holds second anti-government protest in Tirana
Fjori Sinoruka, Balkan Insight (February 14, 2023): Concerns Raised in Albania over Ruling Party ‘Communications’ App
United Kingdom, Local Elections in Some Parts of England: May 4, 2023, followed by general elections due in 2024
Reuters (February 15, 2023): UK Labour leader: Jeremy Corbyn will not be a Labour candidate in next elections
Scotland
AP (February 15, 2023): Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to leave post after 8 years
Henry Hill, Unherd (February 15, 2023): How Scotland fell out of love with Nicola Sturgeon
The Spectator (February 15, 2023): Why Nicola Sturgeon had to go
Northern Ireland
Jude Webber, Financial Times (February 14, 2023): Northern Ireland’s Stormont assembly fails to elect speaker for sixth time: DUP blocks move and sinks bid to use session to pass organ donor legislation
Shawn Pogatchnik, Politico (February 9, 2023): UK concedes reality of Northern Ireland deadlock, shifts election ‘deadline’ to 2024
Amanda Ferguson and Conor Humphries, Reuters (February 10, 2023): Northern Ireland unionists face historic choice as EU, UK near protocol deal
Greece Parliamentary Elections: Local Elections: May 2023 (due) and July 2023 (due)
Greece is due to hold parliamentary elections by July 2023, but earlier elections are possible. The incumbent center-right government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy is facing a number of challenges, including a scandal involving domestic surveillance of political opponents.
George Parker, Eleni Varvitsioti, and James Pickford, Financial Times (February 10, 2023): Inside the secret meetings that could seal the fate of the Parthenon Marbles
AFP (February 10, 2023): Greeks put politics aside to rush aid to Turkey
Reuters (February 9, 2023): Greece bans parties with convicted leaders from running in elections
Germany, Bremen State Elections and Local Elections in Schleswig-Holstein: May 14, 2023followed by other state elections later this year, and following February 12 Berlin state election re-run
Berlin held a re-run of its 2021 state elections, which were marred by numerous problems. Although Berlin has been governed by the left for more than 20 years, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came in first place. However, they might not be able to form a government as other parties have said they would not go into coalition with CDU. Therefore, the current “red-green-red” coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens, and the Left could continue in government.
Other state elections are due later this year, and the next federal elections are due by October 2025.
Federal
AP (February 12, 2023): East Germany’s Last Communist Leader Dies at 95
Berlin
Ben Knight, DW (February 13, 2023): Berlin election win boosts German conservatives
NPR (February 13, 2023): Many Berliners say repeat elections are a sign of the city’s deeper dysfunction
Matthew Tempest, EU Observer (February 10, 2023): Is EU’s most leftwing capital about to go Conservative?
Poland Parliamentary and Local Elections: November 11, 2023 (due – earlier elections possible)
Aitor Hernández-Morales and Jan Cienski, Politico (February 15, 2023): Warsaw mayor’s dilemma: Getting EU cash would boost the government he’s fighting
Aleks Szczerbiak, Notes from Poland (February 9, 2023): Can Poland’s right-wing ruling party win this year’s parliamentary election?
Past Europe Elections
Italy, Lazio and Lombardy Regional Elections: February 12, 2023
Italy’s regions of Lazio (centered on Rome) and Lombardy (centered on Milan) held elections on February 12. These come on the heels of last year’s general elections, which brought right-wing Prime Minister Georgia Meloni to power.
Meloni’s conservatives won both regions, defeating the incumbent center-left in Lazio and maintaining dominance in Lombardy.
Gregorio Sorgi, Politico (February 13, 2023): Italy regional elections: Right-wing coalition wins landslide victory
Rachel Donadio, The Atlantic (February 12, 2023): Can Georgia Meloni govern Italy?
Cyprus Presidential Runoff: February 12, 2023
Former foreign minister Nikos Christodoulides defeated career diplomat Andreas Mavroyiannis in Cyprus’s presidential runoff.
Andria Kades at Cyprus Mail notes: “For the first time in Cyprus’ political history, the two biggest parties of the country have failed to get their preferred presidential candidate elected to power, marking the diminishing power Akel and Disy are currently faced with, according to elections expert Yiannis Mavris.”
Andria Kades, Cyprus Mail (February 14, 2023): Biggest election losers? Cyprus’ largest parties
Euractiv (February 13, 2023): Centrist candidate wins Cypriot elections, EU family still pending
Reuters (February 13, 2023): Cyprus president-elect ready to meet Turk Cypriot leader-office
AP (February 12, 2023): Veteran diplomat Mavroyiannis concedes defeat to ex-minister Christoulides in Cyprus presidential election
Czech Republic Presidential Runoff: January 27-28, 2023
Retired general Petr Pavel defeated controversial former prime minister Andrej Babiš in the Czech Republic’s presidential runoff in January. Incumbent Milos Zeman, who has been in power for 10 years and did not run for re-election, built closer ties with Russia and China.
Pavel, a former chairman of the NATO Military Committee, favors pro-West policies, while populist Babiš has criticized support for Ukraine and the EU more generally.
CEPA (February 10, 2023): The Czech Republic’s Flannel Revolution: The election heralds a more moderate and Atlanticist course
Regional News and Analysis
David Mac Dougall, Euronews (February 15, 2023): Can ‘earthquake diplomacy’ help NATO membership chances for Sweden and Finland?
Maïthé Chini, Brussels Times (February 14, 2023): EU moves to open electoral participation to residents from other Member States
James Billot, Unherd (February 14, 2023): Elections in Europe: Olaf Scholz humiliated, Giorgia Meloni soars
Anchal Vohra, Foreign Policy (February 13, 2023): The Race Is on to Be NATO’S Next Chief
Category: This Week Tags: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Green, Italy, Poland, United Kingdom