Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Halina Abakunchyk, Belsat: “Authorities return to worst campaign practices, human rights defender says”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Trend (Azerbaijan): “Eleven political parties have applied to Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) to participate in the upcoming municipal elections in the country, CEC Chairman Mazahir Panahov said at the commission’s meeting, Trend reports Nov. 5.”
Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe: “Is Change Afoot in Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan has long been an island of unchanging continuity, but a generational overhaul is underway. With mounting expectations and a resurgent opposition, 2020 will be a testing year for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.”
Durna Safarova, Eurasianet: “Azerbaijani police blame the victim: If you believe the Azerbaijani authorities, opposition figures in the country have an uncanny knack for injuring themselves.”
RFE/RL: Prominent Azerbaijani Rights Activist In Coma After ‘Traffic Accident’”
Bahruz Samadov, OC Media: “Recent protests in Azerbaijan suggest that, after a long period of stagnation, the nature of protest is changing. However, for a radical transformation of the political landscape to take place, the country’s traditional opposition parties need to reach out and appeal to the more progressive youth movements.”
Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million
Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.
The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.
Stratfor: “Uzbekistan Comes in From the Cold”
Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.
Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.
Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Its Media Muzzled, Tajikistan Prepares To Extend Ruling Family’s Grip On Power….Ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections next year, critics say the government of Rahmon — widely expected to either extend his limitless tenure or orchestrate a leadership transition to 31-year-old son Rustam — has launched a clampdown against any remaining media outlets outside its control.”
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Fabrice Deprez, PRI: “Ukraine remains split over how to achieve peace in contested Donbas region”
Steven Pifer, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “Five months into Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s term, there are reasons for optimism and caution”
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Local Second Round – November 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
RFE/RL: “A candidate from the pro-Russian Moldovan Socialist Party (PSRM) has for the first time in the country’s post-Soviet history been elected as mayor of the country’s capital, official preliminary results indicate. On November 3, Ion Ceban took 52 percent of the vote, followed by Andrei Nastase of the pro-European ACUM bloc, who received nearly 48 percent.”
Christina Petru, Emerging Europe: “With Ceban’s election in Chișinău, is a ‘Dodonarchy’ nigh?”
Reuters: “Moldovan president says coalition government may collapse”
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
RFE/RL: “Trial Of Four Kazakh Activists Charged With Supporting Banned Opposition Movement Adjourned”
Darkhan Umirbekov, Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Confidence low in government trust-building exercise: Over the past two decades, the president’s office has instituted at least six ad hoc commissions to defuse some kind of political impasse. The latest is not off to an auspicious start.”
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat: “Kazakhstan Sinks in Freedom of the Net 2019 Report: Kazakhstan’s drop marked one of the largest declines over last year’s report, following a year of disruptions and arrests.”
Eurasia
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Posted: November 10, 2019 by 21votes
November 7, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election news, analysis, and opinions from a different region of the world. We explore Eurasia elections on Thursdays. Click the map pins.
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million
Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.
The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.
Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.
Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Moldova Local Second Round – November 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Parliamentary – November 17, 2019 and Presidential – August 30, 2020 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (in name; in fact a dictatorship)
Population: 9.5 million
Belarus – sometimes called “Europe’s last dictatorship” – has choreographed elections and minimal space for political dissent, with periodic violent crackdowns on opposition. The opposition has boycotted a series of recent elections, but did contest the 2016 parliamentary polls, winning two seats, despite the elections being widely judged as neither free nor fair. The upcoming elections are taking place in the context of Russia pushing for closer integration with Belarus within the framework of a “Union State” – perhaps as a precursor to an attempt to annex Belarus.
Halina Abakunchyk, Belsat: “Authorities return to worst campaign practices, human rights defender says”
Azerbaijan Municipal – December 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 10 million
Elections in Azerbaijan are neither competitive nor credible, and are marred by fraud and intimidation of the opposition and civil society. In last year’s presidential election, President Ilham Aliev, whose family has ruled Azerbaijan since 1993, won overwhelmingly after opposition candidates were jailed or barred from running. The opposition boycotted the 2015 parliamentary elections. The last municipal elections took place in 2014, and were dominated – unsurprisingly – by Aliev’s New Azerbaijan Party (YAP).
Trend (Azerbaijan): “Eleven political parties have applied to Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) to participate in the upcoming municipal elections in the country, CEC Chairman Mazahir Panahov said at the commission’s meeting, Trend reports Nov. 5.”
Thomas de Waal, Carnegie Europe: “Is Change Afoot in Azerbaijan? Azerbaijan has long been an island of unchanging continuity, but a generational overhaul is underway. With mounting expectations and a resurgent opposition, 2020 will be a testing year for Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.”
Durna Safarova, Eurasianet: “Azerbaijani police blame the victim: If you believe the Azerbaijani authorities, opposition figures in the country have an uncanny knack for injuring themselves.”
RFE/RL: Prominent Azerbaijani Rights Activist In Coma After ‘Traffic Accident’”
Bahruz Samadov, OC Media: “Recent protests in Azerbaijan suggest that, after a long period of stagnation, the nature of protest is changing. However, for a radical transformation of the political landscape to take place, the country’s traditional opposition parties need to reach out and appeal to the more progressive youth movements.”
Uzbekistan Parliamentary and Local – December 22, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic (highly authoritarian)
Population: 33 million
Elections in Uzbekistan are neither free nor fair, and political opposition is not able to operate in the country. Longtime dictator Islam Karimov, who oversaw the world’s worst massacre of protesters since Tiananmen and tortured dissidents (even boiling some of them to death), died in 2016. His successor, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, has showed some openness to reform, such as a move to end forced labor during the cotton harvest and the release of some – not all – political prisoners, but the country remains a consolidated autocracy.
The Oliy Majlis, Uzbekistan’s bicameral parliament, has historically been passive, although Mirziyoyev has called for the body to take a more active role. However, the political space does not exist for legislators to hold the executive branch accountable, and none of the parties in the Oliy Majlis are genuinely opposition.
Stratfor: “Uzbekistan Comes in From the Cold”
Tajikistan Parliamentary – March 2020
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 8.6 million
Tajikistan is an authoritarian state with no free or fair elections, no genuine, credible opposition operating inside the country, and almost no independent media. The People’s Democratic Party of President Emomali Rahmon (who has been in power since 1994) won most of the seats in the Assembly of Representatives in the 2015 elections, which were surrounded by the arrest and torture of opposition figures and a smear campaign of the opposition by state-controlled media. The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) – the only actual opposition party to be represented in parliament – lost both its seats, and was banned shortly after the elections.
Emomali’s 31-year-old son Rustam Emomali has been installed as mayor of the capital, Dushanbe, and is possibly being positioned to run for the presidency next year. During the 2013 elections, the opposition united behind the secular candidate Oinihol Bobonazarova, but she withdrew from the race after being unable to collect the required signatures, probably due to the fact that her campaign volunteers were being arrested while they collected signatures.
Matthew Luxmoore, RFE/RL: “Its Media Muzzled, Tajikistan Prepares To Extend Ruling Family’s Grip On Power….Ahead of parliamentary and presidential elections next year, critics say the government of Rahmon — widely expected to either extend his limitless tenure or orchestrate a leadership transition to 31-year-old son Rustam — has launched a clampdown against any remaining media outlets outside its control.”
Ukraine Elections in Donbas – Proposed (TBD)
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Semi-Presidential Republic
Population: 44 million
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a plan to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the east, where Russian-backed separatists currently control territory, and hold elections. It is a very controversial plan and was met with protests.
Actor and comedian Zelensky beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko in the March presidential election. Zelensky dissolved the Verkhovna Rada (parliament) and called for snap elections (parliamentary elections were originally supposed to take place in October this year). In addition to entrenched corruption and economic difficulties, Ukraine remains at war with Russian-backed separatists in the east. Policy debate during Ukraine’s presidential and legislative elections earlier this year centered on Russia, which has been ramping up aggression.
Zelensky’s Servant of the People party previously did not have any seats in the Rada, but swept the elections to win an unprecedented parliamentary majority. More than half of the MPs are new.
Fabrice Deprez, PRI: “Ukraine remains split over how to achieve peace in contested Donbas region”
Steven Pifer, Brookings Institution’s Order from Chaos: “Five months into Ukrainian President Zelenskiy’s term, there are reasons for optimism and caution”
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Local Second Round – November 3, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free
Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Population: 3.4 million
Moldova sits at a geopolitical crossroads, and political debate has focused on whether to orient the country toward Europe or Russia. But at the moment, issues of corruption and state capture by oligarchs have come to the forefront. Shortly after the pro-Europe center-right ACUM and the pro-Moscow Socialists (PSRM) remarkably formed a surprise coalition government to oust oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc’s Democratic Party and end months of deadlock following inconclusive parliamentary elections, the government announced overdue local elections.
The last local elections took place in June 2015, and the mandates of the current mayors and councils ended June 14. In June 2018, a court invalidated the result of an early election for mayor of Chisinau, the capital, after pro-European candidate Andrei Nastase won (Nastase is now deputy prime minister, but is running for mayor of Chisinau again). The decision sparked protests and condemnation from the international community. This year’s local elections will be an important test for Moldovan democracy and a gauge of the country’s mood following the formation of the fragile coalition government.
RFE/RL: “A candidate from the pro-Russian Moldovan Socialist Party (PSRM) has for the first time in the country’s post-Soviet history been elected as mayor of the country’s capital, official preliminary results indicate. On November 3, Ion Ceban took 52 percent of the vote, followed by Andrei Nastase of the pro-European ACUM bloc, who received nearly 48 percent.”
Christina Petru, Emerging Europe: “With Ceban’s election in Chișinău, is a ‘Dodonarchy’ nigh?”
Reuters: “Moldovan president says coalition government may collapse”
Kazakhstan Snap Presidential – June 9, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Not Free
Government Type: Presidential Republic
Population: 18.7 million
Longtime strongman Nursultan Nazerbayev, who ruled Kazakhstan since independence in 1991, surprised everyone by stepping down and calling a snap presidential election. Unsurprisingly, his chosen successor, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, won in a tightly-managed election that observers judged not free and not fair. In the days surrounding the election, over 1,000 people were arrested for peacefully protesting. No real opposition exists within Kazakhstan, but some think that the seeds of a civic awakening are being planted.
RFE/RL: “Trial Of Four Kazakh Activists Charged With Supporting Banned Opposition Movement Adjourned”
Darkhan Umirbekov, Eurasianet: “Kazakhstan: Confidence low in government trust-building exercise: Over the past two decades, the president’s office has instituted at least six ad hoc commissions to defuse some kind of political impasse. The latest is not off to an auspicious start.”
Catherine Putz, The Diplomat: “Kazakhstan Sinks in Freedom of the Net 2019 Report: Kazakhstan’s drop marked one of the largest declines over last year’s report, following a year of disruptions and arrests.”
The Year Ahead: Eurasia Elections
Belarus parliamentary (November 17); Uzbekistan parliamentary and local (December 22); Azerbaijan local (December 27); Tajikistan parliamentary (March)
21votes does not necessarily endorse all of the views in all of the linked articles or publications. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan