February 23, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Moldova’s Government House in Chisinau. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Harold (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes.
The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
AFP (February 23, 2023): Blinken To Visit Central Asia As Ukraine War Raises Nerves
RFE/RL (February 22, 2023): Another Kazakh Journalist Attacked As Early Parliamentary Elections Draw Near
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.
IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”
The Economist (February 23, 2023): Why Vladimir Putin will never stand trial in The Hague
Thomas Graham, Russia Matters (February 23, 2023): Domestic Politics Encourage Continued War of Attrition in Ukraine in 2023
Reuters (February 21, 2023): Putin: ‘strong’ Russia will hold fair presidential elections
Pyotr Kozlov, Moscow Times (February 21, 2023): ‘Everyone’s Tired’: Acceptance and Exasperation in Russian Elite as Invasion Anniversary Looms
Moscow Times (February 20, 2023): Direct Mayoral Elections Ended in Novosibirsk
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.
The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.
Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.
On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.
Paul Kirby, BBC (February 23, 2023): Moldova warns of Russian ‘psy-ops’ as tensions rise
Eric Edelman, David J. Kramer, and Benjamin Parker, The Bulwark (February 21, 2023): Moldova Is Putin’s Next Target
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (February 16, 2023): Moldovan Parliament Votes in New pro-Western Govt
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)
The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government).
The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.
The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote.
Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.
RFE/RL (February 22, 2023): Jailed Georgian Ex-President Alleges ‘Murder’ Plot, Appeals For Help
Past Eurasia Elections
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
For a time, Kyrgyzstan was the strongest democracy in Central Asia (although it does not have much competition in that department), but in 2021, Freedom House downgraded it from “partly free” to “not free.”
The country last held parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.”
The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections.
Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, Eurasianet (February 23, 2023): Kyrgyzstan: Surprise ex-presidents meeting in Dubai keeps public guessing
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 26, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Eurasia This Week: February 23, 2023
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Last Updated: March 4, 2023 by 21votes
February 23, 2023
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
In January 2022, a series of violent protests broke out in Kazakhstan, and in the aftermath, something of a political realignment took place with the sidelining of former president Nursultan Nazerbayev, who had previously exercised a great deal of influence behind the scenes.
The country held a constitutional referendum in June 2022 that President Kassym-Jomart claimed would make Kazakhstan more representative, although in reality, the changes were largely cosmetic. A series of snap elections (for president, senate, and now parliament) similarly probably will not produce real reform.
Kazakhstan is a major oil producer and has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies, but has snubbed Moscow on several occasions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
AFP (February 23, 2023): Blinken To Visit Central Asia As Ukraine War Raises Nerves
RFE/RL (February 22, 2023): Another Kazakh Journalist Attacked As Early Parliamentary Elections Draw Near
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023, followed by presidential election due in September 2024
Russia is not a democracy and elections are neither free nor fair. That said, public opinion is not entirely irrelevant to the political calculus, and Vladimir Putin technically faces voters in 2024. As a result, his regime has become increasingly oppressive at home and aggressive abroad.
IFEX notes: “In 2022, Russia saw more than 21,000 arrests and at least 370 defendants in criminal cases for anti-war speech; more than 200,000 internet resources blocked; and 11 sentences in cases of state treason.”
The Economist (February 23, 2023): Why Vladimir Putin will never stand trial in The Hague
Thomas Graham, Russia Matters (February 23, 2023): Domestic Politics Encourage Continued War of Attrition in Ukraine in 2023
Reuters (February 21, 2023): Putin: ‘strong’ Russia will hold fair presidential elections
Pyotr Kozlov, Moscow Times (February 21, 2023): ‘Everyone’s Tired’: Acceptance and Exasperation in Russian Elite as Invasion Anniversary Looms
Moscow Times (February 20, 2023): Direct Mayoral Elections Ended in Novosibirsk
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Moldova is due to hold local elections in October 2023. After that, a presidential election is due in 2024 and parliamentary elections are due in 2025.
The last elections were snap parliamentary elections on July 11, 2021 which pro-Europe center-right president Maia Sandu had been trying to call for months because in Moldova’s parliamentary system, a legislative majority is necessary to execute on any policy agenda. Prior to these elections, party had a clear majority in parliament (and Sandu’s allies were outnumbered by pro-Russian parties), leading to political instability. Sandu’s allies ended up winning in a landslide.
Sandu herself trounced pro-Kremlin leftist Igor Dodon, who had been the incumbent, in the November 2020 presidential election, after losing narrowly to him in 2016.
Russia has ramped up its harassment Moldova following the victories of Sandu and her allies. Moreover, Russia instigated and continues to perpetuate a frozen conflict in Transnistria, where 1,400 Russian troops are stationed – an obstacle to Moldova’s integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Additionally, Transnistria’s rampant organized crime and corruption threaten Moldova’s stability. Russia also stokes separatism in Gagauzia, a Turkic-speaking region of Moldova.
On February 10, the pro-West government collapsed, following a warning from Ukraine’s president that Russia had a plan to destroy Moldova. However, Sandu quickly appointed a new government. The country remains on high alert for violence or other destabilization efforts by pro-Russian forces.
Paul Kirby, BBC (February 23, 2023): Moldova warns of Russian ‘psy-ops’ as tensions rise
Eric Edelman, David J. Kramer, and Benjamin Parker, The Bulwark (February 21, 2023): Moldova Is Putin’s Next Target
Madalin Necsutu, Balkan Insight (February 16, 2023): Moldovan Parliament Votes in New pro-Western Govt
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 2024 (due – snap elections possible)
The United National Movement (UNM), Georgia’s pro-West opposition, held a leadership election in January following a bitter campaign that has left it divided heading into parliamentary elections due in 2024 (Georgia transitioned to a parliamentary system starting in 2012, so these elections will determine who runs the government).
The current government is led by Georgian Dream, a coalition founded by eccentric and Kremlin-connected oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. It came to power during the 2012 parliamentary elections, ousting former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM. The opposition has been calling for new elections since October 2020’s parliamentary polls, due to claims of fraud. International observers noted significant flaws in the elections, and observed that there were issues with public confidence in the polls.
The most recent vote Georgia, the October 2021 local elections, took place in a tense political climate, exacerbated by the arrest of Saakashvili upon his return to the country on the eve of the vote.
Despite Ivanishvili’s Kremlin ties, Georgian Dream has continued some of Georgia’s steps toward Euro-Atlantic integration, including applying for EU membership. This is because public opinion in Georgia overwhelmingly supports those things. However, it is unclear whether Georgian Dream has a genuine commitment to a Euro-Atlantic course, given its leaders’ ties to Russia. And some say that Saakashvili’s ongoing rough treatment and imprisonment are occurring on Russia’s orders.
RFE/RL (February 22, 2023): Jailed Georgian Ex-President Alleges ‘Murder’ Plot, Appeals For Help
Past Eurasia Elections
Kyrgyzstan Parliamentary Elections Take 2: November 28, 2021
For a time, Kyrgyzstan was the strongest democracy in Central Asia (although it does not have much competition in that department), but in 2021, Freedom House downgraded it from “partly free” to “not free.”
The country last held parliamentary elections on November 28, 2021 – a re-run of the parliamentary elections that took place in October 2020. Those elections and allegations of fraud led to political turmoil, followed by a snap presidential election in January 2021 and a constitutional referendum (alongside local elections) in April 2021. The new constitution, which passed, grants the president vastly expanded powers. Its critics have dubbed it the “Khanstitution.”
The political climate was tense heading into the October 2020 parliamentary elections. It subsequently exploded following said elections.
Ayzirek Imanaliyeva, Eurasianet (February 23, 2023): Kyrgyzstan: Surprise ex-presidents meeting in Dubai keeps public guessing
Eurasia Elections Coming Up in 2023
Kazakhstan Snap Parliamentary Elections: March 19, 2023
Turkmenistan Parliamentary and Local Elections: March 26, 2023
Russia, Gubernatorial and Local Elections in Some Regions (including Moscow mayor): September 10, 2023
Armenia, Local Elections in Yerevan: September 2023 (due)
Ukraine Parliamentary Elections: October 29, 2023 (due)
Moldova Local Elections: October 2023 (due)
Belarus Local Elections: Due in 2023 (delays possible)
21votes does not necessarily agree with all of the opinions expressed in the linked articles; rather, our goal is to curate a wide range of voices. Furthermore, none of the individuals or organizations referenced have reviewed 21votes’ content. That is to say, their inclusion should not be taken to imply that they endorse us in any way. More on our approach here.
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Category: This Week Tags: Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia