November 4, 2024
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
A street in Bissau, capital city of Guinea-Bissau. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Colleen Taugher (CC BY 2.0)
Upcoming Africa Elections
Mauritius Parliamentary Elections: November 10, 2024
Mauritius announced its general elections right after Britain announce that it would cede the Chagos Islands, a strategic archipelago in the Indian Ocean that houses the Diego Garcia air base, to Mauritius. Diego Garcia is a key base for both the United Kingdom and the United States. Mauritius has close ties with China, including a free trade agreement inked in 2021.
AP (November 1, 2024): Mauritius suspends access to social media ahead of parliamentary elections
Senegal Snap Legislative Elections: November 17, 2024
For a long time, Senegal was considered a stable democracy, but backsliding and protests riled the tenure of former president Macky Sall, who served until this year and was not eligible to run for a third term. Sall’s chosen successor, Amadou Ba, lost to leftist opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye in this year’s presidential election, which took place in March. Faye is now holding legislative elections to consolidate his hold on power.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production, upping the geopolitical and international economic stakes of Senegal’s politics.
Marwane Ben Yahmed, The Africa Report (November 1, 2024): Opinion: Senegal and the art of democracy
AFP (October 31, 2024): Senegal PM Sonko’s convoy attacked while campaigning for snap polls, party says
Guinea-Bissau Snap Legislative Elections: November 24, 2024 (postponed indefinitely)
AFP (November 4, 2024): Guinea Bissau President postpones elections indefinitely
Namibia Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 27, 2024
Henning Melber, The Conversation (November 4, 2024): Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990
Tanzania Local Elections: November 27, 2024
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, CCM’s John Magufuli won the presidency, and subsequently launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector.
Following Magufuli’s death in 2021, the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, made some moves to open up the political space. She lifted a ban on opposition rallies and secured the release of Freedman Mbowe, leader of the main opposition Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema). However, since then, the government has engaged in repression and arbitrary arrests and assaults of opposition leaders.
Business Insider Africa (November 2, 2024): Tanzania’s election insight: What’s next for Mama Samia?
Agenzia Fides (October 30, 2024): Tanzania: On the Eve of the Local Elections and Before the Parliamentary Elections, the Future of the Country Remains Uncertain
Past Africa Elections
Botswana Presidential, Legislative and Local Elections: October 30, 2024
Botswana is considered to be a strong democracy, rated Free by Freedom House, but the Botswana Democratic Party has been in power since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. Mokgweetsi Masisi, the incumbent president, was widely considered to be the frontrunner, but in an upset, opposition leader Duma Boko from the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won the presidency.
Botswana is currently facing economic challenges related to the global decrease in demand for diamonds, a major export.
Le Monde with AFP (November 1, 2024): Botswana’s president concedes defeat after party loss in election
Reuters (November 1, 2024): Botswana’s ruling party loses election, ending 58-year rule
Sello Motseta, AP (November 1, 2024): Seismic change in Botswana as party that ruled for 58 years loses power
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations (October 29, 2024): Botswana’s Pivotal Elections
Mozambique Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 9, 2024
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
AFP (November 2, 2024): Clashes in Mozambique as police disperse election protests
Shola Lawal, Al Jazeera (October 31, 2024): ‘Ready to die’: Protesters face bullets for political change in Mozambique
Reuters (October 30, 2024): At least 10 shot dead in Mozambique post-election protests, medical associations say
Elections On Deck
Asia This Week: November 8, 2024
Last Updated: November 18, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
November 8, 2024
A weekly review of key news and analysis of elections in Asia and the Indo-Pacific, usually posted on Fridays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Asia/Pacific Elections
Sri Lanka Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 14, 2024
Sri Lanka held its first presidential election since the 2022 financial crisis on September 21. Marxist Anura Kumara Dissanayake won, defeating a number of establishment political figures. He then called snap parliamentary elections, in a bid to consolidate his power. Sri Lanka remains a key site of geopolitical competition, with China constantly seeking to expand its influence and India continuing to play a role.
Tushar Shetty, The Diplomat (November 8, 2024): Rumble in Colombo: Sri Lanka’s Election Surprise
Hussain Haqqani, GIS (November 7, 2024): Sri Lanka’s new president looking for parliamentary backing
Alan J. Keenan, London School of Economics (November 4, 2024): Sri Lanka Goes to the Polls (Again)
Bangladesh Snap Elections: Forthcoming
Julhas Alam, AP (November 8, 2024): Thousands rally in Bangladesh capital as major political party demands quick reforms and an election
Rimon Tanvir Hossain, Foreign Policy Research Institute (November 4, 2024): Beyond the Revolution: Building a New Bangladesh
Past Asia/Pacific Elections
Palau Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 5, 2024
Reuters (November 5, 2024): Palau, U.S. security ally in Pacific, holds presidential election as China looks on
AFP (November 4, 2024): Palau Polls Open As Pro-US President Faces Election Test
Cleo Paskal, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (November 2, 2024): Palau is under attack from PRC
Japan Snap Parliamentary Elections: October 27, 2024
In August 2024, Japan’s then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced he was stepping down in the wake of a slush fund scandal in the governing Liberal Democratic Party. The party helped a leadership election on September 27, which former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba won. Following the election, Ishiba called a snap election for October 27, a move that had been widely expected.
Kazuto Suzuki, Chatham House (November 7, 2024): Following its snap election, Japanese politics has entered uncharted waters
Tobias Harris, World Politics Review (November 4, 2024): A Weakened Ishiba Means a Less Ambitious Japan
Shihoko Goto, East Asia Forum (November 4, 2024): Japan’s surprise election result could spell the return of ‘revolving door’ leadership
Yuki Tatsumi, Stimson Center (November 1, 2024): Japan’s October Surprise: Déjà Vu All Over Again?
Elections On Deck
Eurasia This Week: November 7, 2024
Last Updated: November 18, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
November 7, 2024
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Eurasia, usually posted on Thursdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Eurasia Elections
Belarus Presidential Election: January 26, 2025
Aleksandr Lukashenko has been president of Belarus since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The country last held a presidential election on August 9, 2020. In a vote widely deemed not free and not fair, Lukashenko declared victory. However, the opposition declared that its candidate, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, had in fact won. Hundreds of thousands of Belarusians took to the streets in protest to demand free and fair elections, even in the face of assault and arrest by security forces.
In 2022, Lukashenko held a constitutional referendum on February 27, 2022 as a way of extending his time in power (he has been president since 1994 – the first and only president of post-Soviet Belarus). The changes allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035 and scrap Belarus’s non-nuclear status.
Yuras Karmanau, AP (November 4, 2024): Belarus’ authoritarian ruler will face only token challengers in presidential vote
Past Eurasia Elections
Moldova Presidential Runoff: November 3, 2024
Moldova held a presidential election and referendum on joining the European Union on October 20. Voters narrowly chose to pursue EU membership. Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-west president, came in first in the presidential election but did not win a majority. She subsequently defeated Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor-general who is backed by the pro-Russia faction, in the runoff on November 3.
OSCE (November 4, 2024): Moldova’s well-managed presidential run-off offered voters genuine choice, despite legal deficiencies, unbalanced media coverage and impact of foreign interference, international observers say
Clare Sebastian, CNN (November 4, 2024): Putin’s latest election meddling effort failed. It’s unlikely to stop him trying again
Stefan Wolff, The Conversation (November 4, 2024): Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling
Stephen McGrath and Vadim Ghirda, AP (November 3, 2024): Moldova’s pro-Western president wins second term in runoff overshadowed by Russian meddling claims
Georgia Parliamentary Elections: October 26, 2024
AP (November 4, 2024): Thousands rally again in Georgia to protest Oct. 26 parliamentary election they say was rigged
Irakli Machaidze, Eurasianet (November 1, 2024): European Commission highlights Georgia’s “Backsliding”
Luka Pertaia, Ivan Gutterman, and Wojtek Grojec, RFE/RL (November 1, 2024): The Russian Tail: How Data Could Reveal Georgian Election Fraud
Paul Kirby, BBC (November 1, 2024): Georgian vote result makes no statistical sense – Western pollsters
Regional Analysis
Adam Simpson, Lowy Institute (November 6, 2024): Moldova and Georgia serve as geopolitical bellwethers
Elections On Deck
Europe This Week: November 6, 2024
Last Updated: November 18, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
November 6, 2024
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Europe, usually posted on Wednesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Europe Elections
Romania Presidential Election: November 24, 2024 and Legislative Elections: December 1, 2024
Romania holds presidential and legislative elections later this year.
Una Hajdari at Politico notes: “The electoral outcome may keep Romania on its mostly pro-European, centrist path — or tip it toward more nativist policies that would sound alarm bells in Brussels because of the country’s strategic proximity to Ukraine and its role as a key southeast European economy.”
Paul Dragos Aligica, GIS (November 1, 2024): European security stakes in Romania’s 2024 elections
Ireland Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 29, 2024
Shawn Pogatchnik, Politico (November 6, 2024): Ireland faces snap election on Nov. 29
Willis Sparks, GZERO (November 5, 2024): Ireland preps for an election sprint
Iceland Snap Parliamentary Elections: November 30, 2024
Iceland is holding snap parliamentary elections on November 30, 2024 following the collapse of the coalition government of the conservative Independence Party, center-right Progressive Party, and the Left-Green Movement.
Ragnhildur Sigurdardottir, Bloomberg (October 30, 2024):
Albania Parliamentary Elections: By June 2025
Albania is due to hold parliamentary elections in June 2025 amid tension and protests by the opposition center-right Democratic Party demanding that the Socialist Party government of Edi Rama step down and appoint a caretaker government ahead of the vote. Democratic Party leaders have accused Rama of manipulating elections and corruption. Protesters are also demanding the release of Democratic Party figures who have been arrested, including former Prime Minister Sali Berisha.
Albania is currently in membership negotiations with the European Union.
Fjori Sinoruka, Balkan Insight (November 4, 2024): Albanian Premier Edi Rama’s Diaspora Tour: Outreach or Electioneering?
AP (November 3, 2024): Albania aims to join the European Union by 2030, prime minister tells expatriates in Greek city
Bekim Bruka, Jurist (November 1, 2024): Democracy Beyond Borders: Albania’s First Diaspora Vote and the Struggle for Fair Representation.
Germany Federal Parliamentary Elections: September 28, 2025
Germany’s 2025 federal elections come on the heels of three state elections in the east that delivered blows to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-leaning coalition government. The far-right AfD won in Thuringia and came in a close second in Saxony. While Scholz’s SPD pulled off a surprise win in Brandenburg, AfD made large gains there as well. In addition, a new pro-Putin, anti-establishment left-wing populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), won large percentages of the vote.
Notably, Die Linke (The Left), which formed from remnants of the Communist Party in the east, saw a major collapse in the recent state elections.
The governing coalition is currently hanging on by a thread and snap elections could happen.
Kate Brady, Washington Post (November 6, 2024): German governing coalition collapses, adding upheaval in uncertain moment
Nette Nöstlinger, Politico (November 4, 2024): German government faces make-or-break moment in shadow of US election
Past Europe Elections
United Kingdom Conservative Party Leadership Election: Results Announced November 2, 2024
Jill Lawless, AP (November 2, 2024): UK Conservatives pick Kemi Badenoch as new leader, first Black woman to head a big British party
Elections On Deck
Middle East This Week: November 5, 2024
Last Updated: November 18, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
November 5, 2024
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in the greater Middle East and North Africa, usually posted on Tuesdays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Past Middle East Elections
Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Parliamentary Elections: October 20, 2024
Stella Martany, AP (October 30, 2024): Dominant Kurdish parties maintain their sway in the election for the parliament in the Iraqi region
Tunisia Presidential Election: October 6, 2024
Sarah E. Yerkes and Sabina Henneberg, Foreign Affairs (November 4, 2024): How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia
Basma El Atti, The New Arab (November 1, 2024): Tunisia sentences influencer to 4 years in prison, arrests four others, after new TikTok ‘morality law’
Ishac Diwan, Hachemi Alaya, and Hamza Meddeb, Carnegie Endowment (October 31, 2024): A Path Out of Tunisia’s Economic Crisis
Algeria Presidential Election: September 7, 2024
AP (November 1, 2024): Algeria pardons and releases journalist who became a key voice during 2019 pro-democracy protests
Turkey Local Elections: March 31, 2024
AFP (November 4, 2024): Turkey sacks three more mayors in Kurdish-majority southeast
Elections On Deck
Africa This Week: November 4, 2024
Last Updated: November 13, 2024 by 21votes Leave a Comment
November 4, 2024
A weekly review of news and analysis of elections in Africa, usually posted on Mondays and occasionally updated throughout the week.
Upcoming Africa Elections
Mauritius Parliamentary Elections: November 10, 2024
Mauritius announced its general elections right after Britain announce that it would cede the Chagos Islands, a strategic archipelago in the Indian Ocean that houses the Diego Garcia air base, to Mauritius. Diego Garcia is a key base for both the United Kingdom and the United States. Mauritius has close ties with China, including a free trade agreement inked in 2021.
AP (November 1, 2024): Mauritius suspends access to social media ahead of parliamentary elections
Senegal Snap Legislative Elections: November 17, 2024
For a long time, Senegal was considered a stable democracy, but backsliding and protests riled the tenure of former president Macky Sall, who served until this year and was not eligible to run for a third term. Sall’s chosen successor, Amadou Ba, lost to leftist opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye in this year’s presidential election, which took place in March. Faye is now holding legislative elections to consolidate his hold on power.
A series of oil and gas discoveries starting in 2014 have set Senegal up to become a player in energy production, upping the geopolitical and international economic stakes of Senegal’s politics.
Marwane Ben Yahmed, The Africa Report (November 1, 2024): Opinion: Senegal and the art of democracy
AFP (October 31, 2024): Senegal PM Sonko’s convoy attacked while campaigning for snap polls, party says
Guinea-Bissau Snap Legislative Elections: November 24, 2024 (postponed indefinitely)
AFP (November 4, 2024): Guinea Bissau President postpones elections indefinitely
Namibia Presidential and Legislative Elections: November 27, 2024
Henning Melber, The Conversation (November 4, 2024): Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990
Tanzania Local Elections: November 27, 2024
Tanzania’s socialist Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its predecessors have been in power since 1961. In the 2015 elections, deemed imperfect but credible by observers, CCM’s John Magufuli won the presidency, and subsequently launched a crackdown on the opposition, media, civil society, and the private sector.
Following Magufuli’s death in 2021, the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, made some moves to open up the political space. She lifted a ban on opposition rallies and secured the release of Freedman Mbowe, leader of the main opposition Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema). However, since then, the government has engaged in repression and arbitrary arrests and assaults of opposition leaders.
Business Insider Africa (November 2, 2024): Tanzania’s election insight: What’s next for Mama Samia?
Agenzia Fides (October 30, 2024): Tanzania: On the Eve of the Local Elections and Before the Parliamentary Elections, the Future of the Country Remains Uncertain
Past Africa Elections
Botswana Presidential, Legislative and Local Elections: October 30, 2024
Botswana is considered to be a strong democracy, rated Free by Freedom House, but the Botswana Democratic Party has been in power since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. Mokgweetsi Masisi, the incumbent president, was widely considered to be the frontrunner, but in an upset, opposition leader Duma Boko from the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) won the presidency.
Botswana is currently facing economic challenges related to the global decrease in demand for diamonds, a major export.
Le Monde with AFP (November 1, 2024): Botswana’s president concedes defeat after party loss in election
Reuters (November 1, 2024): Botswana’s ruling party loses election, ending 58-year rule
Sello Motseta, AP (November 1, 2024): Seismic change in Botswana as party that ruled for 58 years loses power
Michelle Gavin, Council on Foreign Relations (October 29, 2024): Botswana’s Pivotal Elections
Mozambique Presidential and Legislative Elections: October 9, 2024
Mozambique’s politics have been dominated by FRELIMO, which has been in power since 1975, when Mozambique became independent, and the main opposition RENAMO. The parties evolved from armed groups that fought a civil war between 1976 and 1992 (and have engaged in clashes since then until an August 2019 peace accord). The Soviet Union backed FRELIMO, while Rhodesia and then apartheid South Africa backed RENAMO.
AFP (November 2, 2024): Clashes in Mozambique as police disperse election protests
Shola Lawal, Al Jazeera (October 31, 2024): ‘Ready to die’: Protesters face bullets for political change in Mozambique
Reuters (October 30, 2024): At least 10 shot dead in Mozambique post-election protests, medical associations say
Elections On Deck