Americas This Week – February 2, 2019

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.

El Salvador Presidential - February 3, 2019

Voters in El Salvador go to the polls on February 3 to elect their president in the first national election of 2019. Populist Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador, leads the polls, although the numbers vary widely. If Bukele does not gain 50 percent of the vote, he faces a runoff, likely with Carlos Calleja from the center-right ARENA party. If Bukele wins, it will be an upset for El Salvador’s two main political parties, ARENA and the left-wing FMLN, of which Bukele used to be a member. Even if Bukele does win, his right-wing populist GANA party does not have many seats in the legislature, so his agenda would face constraints.

Guyana Snap Legislative - By March 2019

Guyana’s acting chief justice has ruled that December’s no confidence motion was valid, and that the government must hold new elections by March. Guyana, which borders Venezuela, is expected to begin oil production later this year or early next year, and there are concerns that political turmoil could interfere with Guyana’s natural resource development.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative - October 2019

Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner likely plans to challenge incumbent Mauricio Macri for the presidency in October. Kirchner, a populist facing criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office, poses a stark contrast to the center-right Macri.

Canada General - October 2019

The Canadian government announced a panel to address election interference, and a coordinated government plan to identify and combat criminal or covert attempts to influence the election. China will likely attempt to influence the election via WeChat.

Venezuela - Ongoing Crisis, Possible Snap Elections Soon

Venezuelans have a chance for democracy. The United States, Canada, the European Parliament, and regional countries have recognized the interim presidency of opposition leader Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly. Many other countries have said they will recognize Guaidó if new elections are not called soon. 

Nicolas Maduro’s incompetent and brutal regime has created a crisis that has led to three million refugees and nearly 80 percent of Venezuelans are unable to buy food for their family.

Canada will be hosting an emergency summit of the Lima Group – a 14-country working group dedicated to a peaceful exit to the Venezuela crisis – on Monday. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, who has taken a leading role in the international response to the crisis, said, “The international community recognized that there were not free and fair elections in Venezuela, and therefore Maduro is not the president of Venezuela in the eyes of the world and also in the eyes of Venezuelans. Article 233 actually provides for what happens when there is no president in Venezuela.”

University of Chicago professor Michael Albertus suggests paying off the military, noting that “Venezuela’s military has long been a kingmaker at defining democratic moments.” The Venezuelan military attaché in Washington, DC last week declared his support for Guaidó’s interim presidency and new elections.

Brazil - October 28, 2018

The Rio Times reports: “ On Friday, February 1st, Brazil’s Congress will resume legislative activities after the end-of-year break with one of the highest rates of new members since the country’s return to democracy in 1989. Among the first issues this new Congress will have to discuss is the social security reform.”

Honduras - November 26, 2017

AFP reports: “Thousands of people took to the streets across Honduras on Sunday to protest against the president a year after his controversial inauguration. Police used tear gas against protesters rallying against conservative President Juan Orlando Hernandez as marchers set tires on fire and blocked two key highways heading north and south of the capital. “There are people who have been gassed and beaten” by police, ex-president Manuel Zelaya told UNE TV.

On Deck: El Salvador presidential (February 3); Guyana snap parliamentary (due by March – exact date not set yet); Panama presidential and legislative (May 5); Canada Alberta province general (on or before May 30 – exact date not set yet); Guatemala general (June 16); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Canada, Prince Edward Island province general (on or before October 7 – exact date not set yet); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Dominica legislative (December)

Upcoming Elections
El Salvador Presidential – February 3, 2019
Voters in El Salvador go to the polls on February 3 to elect their president in the first national election of 2019. Populist Nayib Bukele, the former mayor of San Salvador, leads the polls, although the numbers vary widely. If Bukele does not gain 50 percent of the vote, he faces a runoff, likely with Carlos Calleja from the center-right ARENA party. If Bukele wins, it will be an upset for El Salvador’s two main political parties, ARENA and the left-wing FMLN, of which Bukele used to be a member. Even if Bukele does win, his right-wing populist GANA party does not have many seats in the legislature, so his agenda would face constraints.

Guyana Snap Legislative – By March 2019
Guyana’s acting chief justice has ruled that December’s no confidence motion was valid, and that the government must hold new elections by March. Guyana, which borders Venezuela, is expected to begin oil production later this year or early next year, and there are concerns that political turmoil could interfere with Guyana’s natural resource development.

Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 2019
Former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner likely plans to challenge incumbent Mauricio Macri for the presidency in October. Kirchner, a populist facing criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office, poses a stark contrast to the center-right Macri.

Canada General – October 2019
The Canadian government announced a panel to address election interference, and a coordinated government plan to identify and combat criminal or covert attempts to influence the election. China will likely attempt to influence the election via WeChat.

Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis, Possible Snap Elections Soon
Venezuelans have a chance for democracy. The United States, Canada, the European Parliament, and regional countries have recognized the interim presidency of opposition leader Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly. Many other countries have said they will recognize Guaidó if new elections are not called soon. 

Nicolas Maduro’s incompetent and brutal regime has created a crisis that has led to three million refugees and nearly 80 percent of Venezuelans are unable to buy food for their family.

Canada will be hosting an emergency summit of the Lima Group – a 14-country working group dedicated to a peaceful exit to the Venezuela crisis – on Monday. Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, who has taken a leading role in the international response to the crisis, said, “The international community recognized that there were not free and fair elections in Venezuela, and therefore Maduro is not the president of Venezuela in the eyes of the world and also in the eyes of Venezuelans. Article 233 actually provides for what happens when there is no president in Venezuela.”

University of Chicago professor Michael Albertus suggests paying off the military, noting that “Venezuela’s military has long been a kingmaker at defining democratic moments.” The Venezuelan military attaché in Washington, DC last week declared his support for Guaidó’s interim presidency and new elections.

Past Elections
Brazil – October 28, 2018
The Rio Times reports: “ On Friday, February 1st, Brazil’s Congress will resume legislative activities after the end-of-year break with one of the highest rates of new members since the country’s return to democracy in 1989. Among the first issues this new Congress will have to discuss is the social security reform.”

Honduras – November 26, 2017
AFP reports: “Thousands of people took to the streets across Honduras on Sunday to protest against the president a year after his controversial inauguration. Police used tear gas against protesters rallying against conservative President Juan Orlando Hernandez as marchers set tires on fire and blocked two key highways heading north and south of the capital. “There are people who have been gassed and beaten” by police, ex-president Manuel Zelaya told UNE TV.

A protester faces Venezuelan National Guard during a protest in May 2017. Photo credit: Efecto Eco

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