Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Courtney Menzies, Love News: “This past weekend saw the second round of village council elections held around Belize. There are over two hundred villages that will see elections occur over the next few weeks.”
Colin Hyde, Amandala: “There are villages in this country that have produced area representatives, and in these villages there is a heightened consciousness of Red & Blue politics, so much so that the fate of the political party is bigger than the people who are running in the village council elections. But in most villages it’s candidate over party, fu now.”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians voted in a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Bolivia, an Island of Economic Stability, But Storm Clouds Gather”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Bruce Campion-Smith, The Star: “And they’re off! The federal election’s precampaign period has officially begun”
Bill Curry and Janice Dickson, Globe and Mail: “Federal political parties are now receiving classified security briefings about potential foreign interference in the October election campaign, but Canadian intelligence officials say no specific threat has so far been identified.”
Stephen Maher, Maclean’s: “The social media battle to beat Trudeau: Advocacy groups with pro-oil messages are scrambling to counter the union-backed groups that thrived in 2015”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “The latest figures from Elections Canada show Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have reason to be worried. While they have been in power for almost four years, they are once again trailing the Conservatives when it comes to fundraising. That’s not normal for the party in power.”
Hilary Bird, CBC: “In a move to increase voter turnout, the Northwest Territories will soon become the first jurisdiction in Canada to use online voting in a provincial or territorial election.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “At least 34 clans whose leaders have been convicted or are under investigation for their ties to death squads are taking part in Colombia’s local elections in October, according to political website La Silla Vacia.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Earl Anthony Wayne and Marcelo J. Garcia, The Hill: “Argentina moves toward the center”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Peronism returns to the forefront of Argentine politics. The amorphous populist movement is set to play a major role in October elections”
Diego Lage, Al-Jazeera: “Can Macri’s infrastructure projects sway Argentine voters? Power outages and other infrastructure issues weigh on the minds of voters in the run-up to the presidential election.”
Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times: “That’s life in the big city: Today’s column has at least two unique features within this series – it is the first which does not study a province (Capital Federal is no more a province than the District of Columbia is a state) and it is also the first with the candidates clearly defined after last week’s closure of the electoral lists.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Eloisa Capurro, Reuters: “Uruguay’s conservative opposition has posted a big win in presidential primaries, firing a warning at the ruling coalition ahead of national elections in October as the South American nation grapples to revive economic growth. The official vote count, announced early on Monday, showed former Montevideo mayor Daniel Martínez and Senator Luis Lacalle Pou winning the nominations for the ruling Broad Front coalition and the National Party respectively, the two main factions expected to battle it out later this year.”
Latino USA: “The lead-up to the primary elections was tense, with Lacalle racing against multimillionaire Juan Sartori for the center-right National Party nomination. Sartori finished in a distant second place.”
Martin Aguirre, Axios: “A small, stable, even boring democracy deep south in South America, Uruguay rarely makes international news. But in a region where Chinese and Russian influence is growing rapidly, and which has long been considered part of the the U.S. sphere of influence, a new political figure is sparking attention.”
MercoPress: “Uruguay: No surprises in a primary with a record of candidates”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo Thursday afternoon emerged from what he said were promising talks with President David Granger on appointing a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).”
The Daily Herald: “The country is waiting on the CCJ [Caribbean Court of Justice] to hand down consequential orders on July 12 – which will determine the way forward. The Opposition has submitted that the court order elections to be held within three months, but the Granger-administration proposed that the elections be delayed, for house-to-house registration.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Gideon Long, Financial Times: “UN Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet presented a damning report on atrocities carried out by the Venezuelan government, as thousands marched through Caracas on Independence Day demanding an end to President Nicolás Maduro’s rule. Ms Bachelet told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Friday that the Maduro regime was guilty of ‘arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual violence, killings and enforced disappearance’ as well as a cover-up of the crimes.”
Argus Blog: “Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido today pledged to escalate a campaign to force President Nicolas Maduro to step down. Speaking at an opposition rally in eastern Caracas on Venezuela’s Independence Day, Guaido said he would accept ‘full responsibility’ for the unspecified measures but vowed ‘no more debates with the Maduro dictatorship.’”
Past Elections
Panama General – May 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elida Morena, Reuters: “Panama’s new President Laurentino ‘Nito’ Cortizo vowed to curb corruption and close the wealth gap in the isthmus nation at his swearing-in ceremony on Monday. U.S.-educated political veteran Cortizo, 66, of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), won the May election by just over two percentage points, the closest presidential race in decades. During his five-year term he will have to balance relations with China and the United States, on top of domestic issues.”
Transparency International’s Libertad Ciudadana: “Holding the new Panamanian president to his public commitments. Ahead of the elections, President Cortizo signed a list of anti-corruption promises. Now he needs to deliver.”
Fernanda Uriegas, Americas Quarterly: “How a Journalist Helped Spark an Anti-Corruption Wave in Panama: Panama’s next Congress takes office on July 1 with more independent members than ever before. Mary Triny Zea is part of the reason why.”
Americas This Week – July 6, 2019
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Last Updated: July 16, 2019 by 21votes
July 6, 2019
Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. We explore the Americas on Saturdays. Click the map pins.
Belize Village Elections - June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Courtney Menzies, Love News: “This past weekend saw the second round of village council elections held around Belize. There are over two hundred villages that will see elections occur over the next few weeks.”
Colin Hyde, Amandala: “There are villages in this country that have produced area representatives, and in these villages there is a heightened consciousness of Red & Blue politics, so much so that the fate of the political party is bigger than the people who are running in the village council elections. But in most villages it’s candidate over party, fu now.”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians voted in a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Bolivia, an Island of Economic Stability, But Storm Clouds Gather”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Bruce Campion-Smith, The Star: “And they’re off! The federal election’s precampaign period has officially begun”
Bill Curry and Janice Dickson, Globe and Mail: “Federal political parties are now receiving classified security briefings about potential foreign interference in the October election campaign, but Canadian intelligence officials say no specific threat has so far been identified.”
Stephen Maher, Maclean’s: “The social media battle to beat Trudeau: Advocacy groups with pro-oil messages are scrambling to counter the union-backed groups that thrived in 2015”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “The latest figures from Elections Canada show Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have reason to be worried. While they have been in power for almost four years, they are once again trailing the Conservatives when it comes to fundraising. That’s not normal for the party in power.”
Hilary Bird, CBC: “In a move to increase voter turnout, the Northwest Territories will soon become the first jurisdiction in Canada to use online voting in a provincial or territorial election.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “At least 34 clans whose leaders have been convicted or are under investigation for their ties to death squads are taking part in Colombia’s local elections in October, according to political website La Silla Vacia.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Earl Anthony Wayne and Marcelo J. Garcia, The Hill: “Argentina moves toward the center”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Peronism returns to the forefront of Argentine politics. The amorphous populist movement is set to play a major role in October elections”
Diego Lage, Al-Jazeera: “Can Macri’s infrastructure projects sway Argentine voters? Power outages and other infrastructure issues weigh on the minds of voters in the run-up to the presidential election.”
Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times: “That’s life in the big city: Today’s column has at least two unique features within this series – it is the first which does not study a province (Capital Federal is no more a province than the District of Columbia is a state) and it is also the first with the candidates clearly defined after last week’s closure of the electoral lists.”
Uruguay General - October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Eloisa Capurro, Reuters: “Uruguay’s conservative opposition has posted a big win in presidential primaries, firing a warning at the ruling coalition ahead of national elections in October as the South American nation grapples to revive economic growth. The official vote count, announced early on Monday, showed former Montevideo mayor Daniel Martínez and Senator Luis Lacalle Pou winning the nominations for the ruling Broad Front coalition and the National Party respectively, the two main factions expected to battle it out later this year.”
Latino USA: “The lead-up to the primary elections was tense, with Lacalle racing against multimillionaire Juan Sartori for the center-right National Party nomination. Sartori finished in a distant second place.”
Martin Aguirre, Axios: “A small, stable, even boring democracy deep south in South America, Uruguay rarely makes international news. But in a region where Chinese and Russian influence is growing rapidly, and which has long been considered part of the the U.S. sphere of influence, a new political figure is sparking attention.”
MercoPress: “Uruguay: No surprises in a primary with a record of candidates”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo Thursday afternoon emerged from what he said were promising talks with President David Granger on appointing a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).”
The Daily Herald: “The country is waiting on the CCJ [Caribbean Court of Justice] to hand down consequential orders on July 12 – which will determine the way forward. The Opposition has submitted that the court order elections to be held within three months, but the Granger-administration proposed that the elections be delayed, for house-to-house registration.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Gideon Long, Financial Times: “UN Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet presented a damning report on atrocities carried out by the Venezuelan government, as thousands marched through Caracas on Independence Day demanding an end to President Nicolás Maduro’s rule. Ms Bachelet told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Friday that the Maduro regime was guilty of ‘arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual violence, killings and enforced disappearance’ as well as a cover-up of the crimes.”
Argus Blog: “Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido today pledged to escalate a campaign to force President Nicolas Maduro to step down. Speaking at an opposition rally in eastern Caracas on Venezuela’s Independence Day, Guaido said he would accept ‘full responsibility’ for the unspecified measures but vowed ‘no more debates with the Maduro dictatorship.’”
Panama General - May 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elida Morena, Reuters: “Panama’s new President Laurentino ‘Nito’ Cortizo vowed to curb corruption and close the wealth gap in the isthmus nation at his swearing-in ceremony on Monday. U.S.-educated political veteran Cortizo, 66, of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), won the May election by just over two percentage points, the closest presidential race in decades. During his five-year term he will have to balance relations with China and the United States, on top of domestic issues.”
Transparency International’s Libertad Ciudadana: “Holding the new Panamanian president to his public commitments. Ahead of the elections, President Cortizo signed a list of anti-corruption promises. Now he needs to deliver.”
Fernanda Uriegas, Americas Quarterly: “How a Journalist Helped Spark an Anti-Corruption Wave in Panama: Panama’s next Congress takes office on July 1 with more independent members than ever before. Mary Triny Zea is part of the reason why.”
Upcoming Elections
Belize Village Elections – June 23-July 28, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Democracy under a Constitutional Monarchy (a Commonwealth realm)
Belize is dominated by two parties: Prime Minister Dean Barrow’s center-right United Democratic Party, which has been in government since 2008, and the center-left People’s United Party (PUP), which played a major role in negotiating Belize’s independence and dominated politics until the 1980s. Belize has general elections coming up in November 2020.
Courtney Menzies, Love News: “This past weekend saw the second round of village council elections held around Belize. There are over two hundred villages that will see elections occur over the next few weeks.”
Colin Hyde, Amandala: “There are villages in this country that have produced area representatives, and in these villages there is a heightened consciousness of Red & Blue politics, so much so that the fate of the political party is bigger than the people who are running in the village council elections. But in most villages it’s candidate over party, fu now.”
Bolivia General – October 20, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Left-wing populist President Evo Morales plans to run for a fourth term. Bolivians voted in a referendum to limit their presidents to two terms, but the courts dismissed the result. Morales has become increasingly authoritarian, and his critics say he has become a dictator. Human rights defenders face persecution. Morales’ supporters argue that he has brought stability (before his tenure, Bolivia had five presidents in five years). Morales is the frontrunner in the race, but he could face a runoff and his re-election is not guaranteed – a June 2019 poll found he has 38.1 percent support against three opposition candidates.
Morales’ Movement for Socialism–Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples currently controls about 2/3 of both houses of the legislature. The center-left National Unity Front holds about 1/4 of the seats in each house, and the centrist Christian Democrats the remaining few seats.
Associated Press: “Bolivia, an Island of Economic Stability, But Storm Clouds Gather”
Canada General – October 21, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Federal Parliamentary Democracy (Parliament of Canada) under a Constitutional Monarchy; a Commonwealth Realm
The election will be competitive, and some polls have shown that the Conservatives would beat incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals if the election were held today. Trudeau is a darling of the global center-left, but his popularity has eroded in the last several months, partly due to controversies such as the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which the justice minister resigned from cabinet after a public conflict with Trudeau. Several provinces also elect provincial parliaments throughout the year. Seats for all 338 ridings (districts/constituencies) in Canada’s House of Commons, the lower house of the bicameral Parliament, are up for election (the Senate is appointed). Usually the leader of the party with the most seats then becomes Prime Minister.
Bruce Campion-Smith, The Star: “And they’re off! The federal election’s precampaign period has officially begun”
Bill Curry and Janice Dickson, Globe and Mail: “Federal political parties are now receiving classified security briefings about potential foreign interference in the October election campaign, but Canadian intelligence officials say no specific threat has so far been identified.”
Stephen Maher, Maclean’s: “The social media battle to beat Trudeau: Advocacy groups with pro-oil messages are scrambling to counter the union-backed groups that thrived in 2015”
Brian Lilley, Toronto Sun: “The latest figures from Elections Canada show Justin Trudeau and his Liberals have reason to be worried. While they have been in power for almost four years, they are once again trailing the Conservatives when it comes to fundraising. That’s not normal for the party in power.”
Hilary Bird, CBC: “In a move to increase voter turnout, the Northwest Territories will soon become the first jurisdiction in Canada to use online voting in a provincial or territorial election.”
Colombia Local – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Partly Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Local elections will be an important test for center-right President Iván Duque, elected last year with the backing of a range of political parties across the ideological spectrum. Duque has had difficulty passing legislation due to gridlock in Congress. Colombia has seen an uptick in violence ahead of these elections.
Adriaan Alsema, Colombia Reports: “At least 34 clans whose leaders have been convicted or are under investigation for their ties to death squads are taking part in Colombia’s local elections in October, according to political website La Silla Vacia.”
Argentina Presidential and Legislative – October 27, 2019 and Provincial – Throughout the year
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
On the presidential front: Incumbent Maucirio Macri from the center-right Cambiemos – the first non-Peronist since 1928 to complete a presidential term – faces off against former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who surprised everyone by announcing that she was running for vice president on a ticket headed by Alberto Fernández. The election could go either way. Macri has had difficulty delivering on his economic promises, while Kirchner faces criminal charges related to corruption during her time in office. Provincial elections are also taking place throughout the year. Peronists have done well in the provincial polls held thus far.
Earl Anthony Wayne and Marcelo J. Garcia, The Hill: “Argentina moves toward the center”
Benedict Mander, Financial Times: “Peronism returns to the forefront of Argentine politics. The amorphous populist movement is set to play a major role in October elections”
Diego Lage, Al-Jazeera: “Can Macri’s infrastructure projects sway Argentine voters? Power outages and other infrastructure issues weigh on the minds of voters in the run-up to the presidential election.”
Michael Soltys, Buenos Aires Times: “That’s life in the big city: Today’s column has at least two unique features within this series – it is the first which does not study a province (Capital Federal is no more a province than the District of Columbia is a state) and it is also the first with the candidates clearly defined after last week’s closure of the electoral lists.”
Uruguay General – October 27, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Nicknamed the “Switzerland of South America,” Uruguay is wealthier than the its neighbors and politically neutral. The three major parties are the center-left and social democratic Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, the center-right National Party (PN), and the liberal Colorado Party (PC). FA holds a razor-thin majority in the General Assembly, with 16 out of 31 Senate seats and 50 out of 99 seats in the Chamber of Deputies. It has had a majority in the General Assembly and held the presidency since 2005. President Tabaré Vázquez, who was elected in 2014 and had also been president from 2005 to 2010, is not able to run this year because the constitution does not allow consecutive terms. Corruption allegations and slow economic growth could hurt FA’s chances in these elections. During the June 30, 2019 primaries – in which voters also express a preferred party – FA received only 23.6 percent of the vote, with PN winning 41.6 and PC picking up 16.8.
Eloisa Capurro, Reuters: “Uruguay’s conservative opposition has posted a big win in presidential primaries, firing a warning at the ruling coalition ahead of national elections in October as the South American nation grapples to revive economic growth. The official vote count, announced early on Monday, showed former Montevideo mayor Daniel Martínez and Senator Luis Lacalle Pou winning the nominations for the ruling Broad Front coalition and the National Party respectively, the two main factions expected to battle it out later this year.”
Latino USA: “The lead-up to the primary elections was tense, with Lacalle racing against multimillionaire Juan Sartori for the center-right National Party nomination. Sartori finished in a distant second place.”
Martin Aguirre, Axios: “A small, stable, even boring democracy deep south in South America, Uruguay rarely makes international news. But in a region where Chinese and Russian influence is growing rapidly, and which has long been considered part of the the U.S. sphere of influence, a new political figure is sparking attention.”
MercoPress: “Uruguay: No surprises in a primary with a record of candidates”
Guyana Snap Parliamentary – November 2019 (tentative)
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Parliamentary Republic
Guyana is on the cusp of potentially seismic economic changes due to the discovery of oil. The country could soon go from South America’s second-poorest to a petrostate as rich as Qatar. Both of Guyana’s major parties naturally want to be in power when the oil money starts coming in. Guyana is in a state of political turmoil. In December 2018, the government of David Grangers’s People’s National Congress lost an unprecedented no-confidence motion. Snap elections were supposed to happen within three months but litigation has delayed the process. Although there have been attempts to create multiethnic parties, Guyana’s political fault lines tend to be ethnic. The main opposition People’s Progressive Party (PPP), mostly an Indian-Guyanese party that espouses communism as its ideology, was in power from 1992-2015. Granger’s party – ideologically socialist – is mostly supported by Afro-Guyanese.
Denis Chabrol, Demerara Waves: “Opposition Leader Bharrat Jagdeo Thursday afternoon emerged from what he said were promising talks with President David Granger on appointing a new Chairman of the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM).”
The Daily Herald: “The country is waiting on the CCJ [Caribbean Court of Justice] to hand down consequential orders on July 12 – which will determine the way forward. The Opposition has submitted that the court order elections to be held within three months, but the Granger-administration proposed that the elections be delayed, for house-to-house registration.”
Venezuela – Ongoing Crisis
Freedom House Rating: Not Free – Government Type: Federal Presidential Republic
Gideon Long, Financial Times: “UN Human Rights chief Michelle Bachelet presented a damning report on atrocities carried out by the Venezuelan government, as thousands marched through Caracas on Independence Day demanding an end to President Nicolás Maduro’s rule. Ms Bachelet told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva on Friday that the Maduro regime was guilty of ‘arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment, sexual violence, killings and enforced disappearance’ as well as a cover-up of the crimes.”
Argus Blog: “Venezuela’s opposition leader Juan Guaido today pledged to escalate a campaign to force President Nicolas Maduro to step down. Speaking at an opposition rally in eastern Caracas on Venezuela’s Independence Day, Guaido said he would accept ‘full responsibility’ for the unspecified measures but vowed ‘no more debates with the Maduro dictatorship.’”
Past Elections
Panama General – May 5, 2019
Freedom House Rating: Free – Government Type: Presidential Republic
Elida Morena, Reuters: “Panama’s new President Laurentino ‘Nito’ Cortizo vowed to curb corruption and close the wealth gap in the isthmus nation at his swearing-in ceremony on Monday. U.S.-educated political veteran Cortizo, 66, of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), won the May election by just over two percentage points, the closest presidential race in decades. During his five-year term he will have to balance relations with China and the United States, on top of domestic issues.”
Transparency International’s Libertad Ciudadana: “Holding the new Panamanian president to his public commitments. Ahead of the elections, President Cortizo signed a list of anti-corruption promises. Now he needs to deliver.”
Fernanda Uriegas, Americas Quarterly: “How a Journalist Helped Spark an Anti-Corruption Wave in Panama: Panama’s next Congress takes office on July 1 with more independent members than ever before. Mary Triny Zea is part of the reason why.”
The Year Ahead: Americas
Canada provincial and territorial (throughout the year); Belize village councils (June 23-July 28); Guatemala general second round (August 18); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October); Haiti parliamentary (October); Bolivia presidential and legislative (October 20); Canada general (on or before October 21 – exact date not set yet); Argentina presidential and legislative (October 27); Uruguay presidential and legislative (October 27); Colombia local (October 27); Guyana snap parliamentary (November); Trinidad and Tobago local (November) Dominica legislative (December); St. Kitts and Nevis legislative (February)
Campaign posters ahead of Uruguay’s primary elections. In front, a poster for unsuccessful National Party candidate Juan Sartori. Photo credit: Wikimedia/Fadesga
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