Africa – December 3, 2018

Africa – December 3, 2018

December 3, 2018

Each day, 21votes gathers election and political news from a different region of the world. Mondays we explore Africa.

Togo - December 20, 2018

Togolese civil society activist Wolali K. Ahlijah writes about protests in the capital, Lome, where thousands of citizens came out on November 29, with more protests planned this week: “The demonstrators heeded a call from a coalition of opposition political parties – commonly known as the C14 – and civil society groups that have grown increasingly frustrated with the government’s lack of commitment to long-overdue reforms, particularly as they relate to the holding of free and fair elections. In a now all too familiar scene, the autocratic government of Faure Gnassingbé – leader of the longest military-backed regime in Africa – responded with tear gas, intimidation and brute violence.…Frustrated with the lack of good faith by the government, which is determined to hold elections on December 20, in addition to a highly flawed voters’ roll, the opposition has resumed street protests with full force. In so doing, the coming months will likely remain tenuous, as the population grows increasingly impatient and combative, and determined to end Togo’s 52 years of single-family rule.”

Bloomberg reports: “Faure Gnassingbe has been in power since winning disputed elections in 2005 that were held shortly after the death in office of his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema, who ruled Togo for 38 years.”

Cote d’Ivoire, Local do-overs - December 16, 2018

Some regions will re-do local elections on December 16.

Madagascar Presidential Runoff - December 19, 2018

Reuters report that incumbent Hery Rajaonarimampianina has conceded defeat in Madagascar’s presidential election. “Rajaonarimampianina got just 8.82 percent in the November first round, the High Constitutional Court said on Wednesday, behind former presidents Marc Ravalomanana, who got 35.35 percent, and Andry Rajoelina, who got 39.23 percent….He will not take part in the second round, due on December 19. The court rejected his request to have the election canceled.”

Somalia, South West State Government - December 19, 2018

Reuters reports that the election in Somalia’s South West state will be delayed for the third time, to December 19: “Tensions between the federal government and state authorities have mounted in recent weeks after Mogadishu tried to block the candidacy of former al Shabaab Islamist militant Mukhtar Robow…. South West is slated to be the first of Somalia’s seven semi-autonomous regions to hold presidential elections in the coming months, a critical juncture in a growing power struggle between the central government in Mogadishu and the states.” Somalia remains a failed state, with control divided between al Shabaab terrorists, the government in Mogadishu (which recently concluded a lengthy and challenging election process), a breakaway government in Somaliland, and a semi-autonomous government in Puntland.

Democratic Republic of the Congo General - December 23, 2018

International Crisis Group warns that violence could escalate or break out surrounding the elections. Recent clashes in the east killed 18.

Nigeria General - February 16 2019

BBC reports: “Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari has denied rumours that he has died and been replaced by a lookalike. Some people thought he had been ‘cloned’, but ‘it’s [the] real me, I assure you,’ Mr Buhari said. Rumours that he had been replaced with a body double called ‘Jubril’ from Sudan had been widely shared online.” The main opposition PDP launched its campaign this week. 

Senegal - February 24, 2019

Al-Jazeera reports that internet censorship is on the rise ahead of elections.

Malawi Tripartite (executive, legislative, and local) - May 21, 2019

Campaigning continues in Malawi. Former president Joyce Banda is running against incumbent. Banda held a rally in Zomba, Malawi’s former capital, on Sunday, where she made big promises. Banda recently returned to Malawi after three years of self-imposed exile due to allegations of corruption. Meanwhile, a new law banning vote-buying took effect on December 1. Freedom House rates Malawi partly free: “Political rights and civil liberties are for the most part respected by the state. However, corruption is endemic, police brutality and arbitrary arrests are common, and discrimination and violence toward women, minority groups, and people with albinism remain problems.”

Guinea-Bissau General

Guinea-Bissau’s elections (originally scheduled for November 2018) remain delayed, with no date set.

Angola

The Economist: “President João Lourenço sees himself as an Angolan Deng Xiaoping.” Angola remains an authoritarian state rated “not free” by Freedom House.

Cameroon

Cameroon’s civil war (which has killed over 1,000 people) and political crisis continue. And Cameroon lost its hosting rights for the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. But here’s a nice story about two guys trying to do their part to make things better through music.

Gambia

Gambians marked the two year anniversary of democracy’s remarkable victory in 2016, dubbing December 1 “Democracy Day.”

Niger/Nigeria Border

Boko Haram activity is increasing on the Niger-Nigeria border. John Campbell writes for the Council on Foreign Relations: “Niger officials have announced that Boko Haram kidnapped eighteen girls from two villages, Blaharde and Bague, on November 24. Media is reporting that as many as fifty Boko Haram operatives were involved. The region of Niger where the kidnapping took place is ethnically and religiously diverse, but authorities have not yet identified the girls and their ethnic and religious affiliation.”

Democracy in the Region

Afrobarometer on the state of African democracy: Even though supply of democracy might be low, demand is high: “For more than a decade and across many indicators, ordinary Africans have consistently expressed support for democracy and accountable governance in Afrobarometer surveys. The latest wave of the survey (2016-18), covering 34 countries in all regions of the continent, bears this fact out. More than two-thirds (68%) of Africans prefer democracy – down slightly from 72% in 2012. Support for multiparty competition is at 63%, for high-quality elections at 75%, and for presidential term limits, 75%. Indeed, the proportion of Africans who think it’s more important to have an accountable government than an efficient one increased between 2015 and 2018, from 53% to 62%. In short, demand for democratic governance is still strong.”

Looking Ahead to 2019

Quartz looks at Africa’s challenges and opportunities, and developments to watch in 2019.

Upcoming Elections in the News
Togo – December 20, 2018
Togolese civil society activist Wolali K. Ahlijah writes about protests in the capital, Lome, where thousands of citizens came out on November 29, with more protests planned this week: “The demonstrators heeded a call from a coalition of opposition political parties – commonly known as the C14 – and civil society groups that have grown increasingly frustrated with the government’s lack of commitment to long-overdue reforms, particularly as they relate to the holding of free and fair elections. In a now all too familiar scene, the autocratic government of Faure Gnassingbé – leader of the longest military-backed regime in Africa – responded with tear gas, intimidation and brute violence.…Frustrated with the lack of good faith by the government, which is determined to hold elections on December 20, in addition to a highly flawed voters’ roll, the opposition has resumed street protests with full force. In so doing, the coming months will likely remain tenuous, as the population grows increasingly impatient and combative, and determined to end Togo’s 52 years of single-family rule.”

Bloomberg reports: “Faure Gnassingbe has been in power since winning disputed elections in 2005 that were held shortly after the death in office of his father, Gnassingbe Eyadema, who ruled Togo for 38 years.”

Cote d’Ivoire, Local do-overs – December 16, 2018
Some regions will re-do local elections on December 16.

Madagascar Presidential Runoff – December 19, 2018
Reuters report that incumbent Hery Rajaonarimampianina has conceded defeat in Madagascar’s presidential election. “Rajaonarimampianina got just 8.82 percent in the November first round, the High Constitutional Court said on Wednesday, behind former presidents Marc Ravalomanana, who got 35.35 percent, and Andry Rajoelina, who got 39.23 percent….He will not take part in the second round, due on December 19. The court rejected his request to have the election canceled.” Somalia remains a failed state

Somalia, South West State Government – December 19, 2018
Reuters reports that the election in Somalia’s South West state will be delayed for the third time, to December 19: “Tensions between the federal government and state authorities have mounted in recent weeks after Mogadishu tried to block the candidacy of former al Shabaab Islamist militant Mukhtar Robow…. South West is slated to be the first of Somalia’s seven semi-autonomous regions to hold presidential elections in the coming months, a critical juncture in a growing power struggle between the central government in Mogadishu and the states.” Somalia remains a failed state, with control divided between al Shabaab terrorists, the government in Mogadishu (which recently concluded a lengthy and challenging election process), a breakaway government in Somaliland, and a semi-autonomous government in Puntland. 

Democratic Republic of the Congo General – December 23, 2018
International Crisis Group warns that violence could escalate or break out surrounding the elections. Recent clashes in the east killed 18.

Nigeria General – February 16 2019
BBC reports: “Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari has denied rumours that he has died and been replaced by a lookalike. Some people thought he had been ‘cloned’, but ‘it’s [the] real me, I assure you,’ Mr Buhari said. Rumours that he had been replaced with a body double called ‘Jubril’ from Sudan had been widely shared online.” The main opposition PDP launched its campaign this week. Meanwhile, Boko Haram activity is increasing on the Niger-Nigeria border.

Senegal – February 24, 2019
Al-Jazeera reports that internet censorship is on the rise ahead of elections.

Malawi Tripartite (executive, legislative, and local) – May 21, 2019
Campaigning continues in Malawi. Former president Joyce Banda is running against incumbent. Banda held a rally in Zomba, Malawi’s former capital, on Sunday, where she made big promises. Banda recently returned to Malawi after three years of self-imposed exile due to allegations of corruption. Meanwhile, a new law banning vote-buying took effect on December 1. Freedom House rates Malawi partly free: “Political rights and civil liberties are for the most part respected by the state. However, corruption is endemic, police brutality and arbitrary arrests are common, and discrimination and violence toward women, minority groups, and people with albinism remain problems.”

Guinea-Bissau General
Guinea-Bissau’s elections (originally scheduled for November 2018) remain delayed, with no date set.

Other Regional News and Views

Angola
The Economist: “President João Lourenço sees himself as an Angolan Deng Xiaoping.” Angola remains an authoritarian state rated “not free” by Freedom House.

Cameroon
Cameroon’s civil war (which has killed over 1,000 people) and political crisis continue. And Cameroon lost its hosting rights for the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations football tournament. But here’s a nice story about two guys trying to do their part to make things better through music.

Gambia
Gambians marked the two year anniversary of democracy’s remarkable victory in 2016, dubbing December 1 “Democracy Day.”

Niger/Nigeria Border
Boko Haram activity is increasing on the Niger-Nigeria border. John Campbell writes for the Council on Foreign Relations: “Niger officials have announced that Boko Haram kidnapped eighteen girls from two villages, Blaharde and Bague, on November 24. Media is reporting that as many as fifty Boko Haram operatives were involved. The region of Niger where the kidnapping took place is ethnically and religiously diverse, but authorities have not yet identified the girls and their ethnic and religious affiliation.”

Democracy in the Region
Afrobarometer on the state of African democracy: Even though supply of democracy might be low, demand is high: “For more than a decade and across many indicators, ordinary Africans have consistently expressed support for democracy and accountable governance in Afrobarometer surveys. The latest wave of the survey (2016-18), covering 34 countries in all regions of the continent, bears this fact out. More than two-thirds (68%) of Africans prefer democracy – down slightly from 72% in 2012. Support for multiparty competition is at 63%, for high-quality elections at 75%, and for presidential term limits, 75%. Indeed, the proportion of Africans who think it’s more important to have an accountable government than an efficient one increased between 2015 and 2018, from 53% to 62%. In short, demand for democratic governance is still strong.”

Looking Ahead to 2019
Quartz looks at Africa’s challenges and opportunities, and developments to watch in 2019.

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